1318 IMPROVING PERFORMANCE OF MEDICATION REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF BONE HEALTH IN GERIATRIC ADMISSIONS: A QUALITY IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

Introduction

Important parts of the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) include medication review and assessment of bone health. Such aspects of CGA can be missed in clinical practice in the busy acute hospital setting. We aimed to improve performance of medication review, and assessment of bone health in patients with falls in the form of vitamin D levels and Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) scoring, in admissions to the acute Care of the Elderly (COTE) team in a district general hospital in South Wales.

Method

Data were collected from documentation of the initial review of admissions under the acute COTE team, over a two-week period pre- and post- intervention. A new patient assessment document was produced for the initial COTE review with prompts for medication review, vitamin D levels and FRAX scoring.

Results

The sample included 38 admissions pre- and 32 admissions post- intervention. Implementation of the new patient assessment document resulted in an increase in medication review from 37% to 84% overall, and 91% in instances where the document was used. In patients with falls, we observed an increase in vitamin D level testing from 50% to 65% overall, and 83% where the document was used, and an increase in FRAX scoring from 22% to 47% overall, and 67% in cases where the document was used.

Conclusion

A standardised patient assessment document is a simple intervention that can be introduced easily on a departmental basis to act as an aide memoire for important aspects of the CGA. In this project the new patient assessment document produced an increase in performance of medication review and assessment of bone health. Future work will aim to improve utilisation of the assessment document and evaluate changes in prescribing practice as a result of its implementation.

National Registry Data and Record Linkage to Inform Postmarket Surveillance of Prosthetic Aortic Valve Models Over 15 Years

Importance

Postmarket evidence generation for medical devices is important yet limited for prosthetic aortic valve devices in the United Kingdom.

Objective

To identify prosthetic aortic valve models that display unexpected patterns of mortality or reintervention using routinely collected national registry data and record linkage.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This observational study used data from all National Health Service and private hospitals in England and Wales that submit data to the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit (NACSA). All patients undergoing first-time elective and urgent aortic valve replacement surgery (with or without coronary artery bypass grafting) with a biological (n = 15 series) or mechanical (n = 10 series) prosthetic valve from 5 primary suppliers, and satisfying prespecified data quality criteria (n = 43 782 biological; n = 11 084 mechanical) between 1998 and 2013 were included. Valves were classified into series of related models. Outcome tracking was performed using multifaceted record linkage. The median follow-up was 4.1 years (maximum, 15.3 years). Cox proportional hazards regression with random effects (frailty models) were used to model valve effects on the outcomes, with and without adjustment for preoperative and intraoperative covariates.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Time to all-cause mortality or aortic valve reintervention (surgical or transcatheter). There were 13 104 deaths and 723 reinterventions during follow-up.

Results

Of 79 345 isolated aortic valve replacement procedures with or without coronary artery bypass grafting, 54 866 were analyzed. Biological valve implantation rates increased from 59% in 1998 and 1999 to 86% in 2012 and 2013. Two series of valves associated with significantly increased hazard of death or reintervention were identified (first series: frailty, 1.18; 95% prediction interval [PI], 1.06-1.32 and second series: frailty, 1.19; 95% PI, 1.09-1.31). These results were robust to covariate adjustment and sensitivity analyses. There were 3 prosthetic valves with a significant reduction in hazard (valve 1: frailty, 0.88; 95% PI, 0.80-0.96; valve 2: frailty, 0.88; 95% PI, 0.80-0.96; and valve 3: frailty, 0.88; 95% PI, 0.78-0.98).

Conclusions and Relevance

Meaningful evidence from the analysis of routinely collected registry data can inform postmarket surveillance of medical devices. Although the findings are associated with a number of caveats, 2 specific biological aortic valve series identified in this study may warrant further investigation.

Omega-3 fatty acids do not alter P-wave parameters in electrocardiogram or expression of atrial connexins in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery

AIMS

We previously reported omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3PUFAs) supplementation does not reduce atrial fibrillation (AF) following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the impact of n-3 PUFAs on electrocardiogram (ECG) atrial arrhythmic markers and compare with expression of gap-junction proteins, Connexins.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Subset of clinical trial subjects with right atrial sampling during CABG surgery included. Twelve-lead ECG performed at recruitment and at surgery [after supplementation with n-3 PUFA (∼1.8 g/day) or matched placebo] for ∼14 days. Electrocardiograms analysed for maximum P-wave duration (P-max) and difference between P-max and minimum P-wave duration, P-wave dispersion (PWD). Right atrial specimens analysed for expression of Connexins 40 and 43 using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and western blot. Serum levels of n-3 PUFA at baseline, at surgery, and atrial tissue levels at surgery collated from file. Postoperative AF was quantified by analysing data from stored continuous electrograms. A total of 61 patients (n-3 PUFA 34, Placebo 27) had ECG analysis and AF burden, of which 52 patients (26 in each group) had qPCR and 16 (8 in each group) had western blot analyses for Connexins 40 and 43. No difference between the two groups in ECG parameters or expression of Connexin 40 or 43. P-wave dispersion in the preoperative ECG independently predicted occurrence of AF following CABG surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids supplementation does not alter pro-arrhythmic P-wave parameters in ECG or connexin expression in human atrium with no effect on the incidence of AF following CABG surgery.

Activity and outcomes for aortic valve implantations performed in England and Wales since the introduction of transcatheter aortic valve implantation

OBJECTIVES

The first transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) in England and Wales was performed in 2007. This study presents the subsequent national activity and outcomes for both TAVI and aortic valve replacement (AVR).

METHODS

Data for all AVR and TAVI procedures between January 2006 and December 2012 in England and Wales were included. The number of procedures, patient characteristics, in-hospital and 30-day mortality, postoperative length of stay (PLOS) and survival were analysed separately for: isolated AVR; AVR + coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery; AVR + other surgery and TAVI.

RESULTS

The number of TAVIs increased from 66 in 2007 (0.8% of all implants) to 1186 in 2012 (10.9% of all implants). AVR activity also increased over the study period. TAVI patients were older and had a higher mean logistic EuroSCORE than all AVR groups. The 30-day mortality rates were 2.1% for isolated AVR, 3.9% for AVR + CABG, 7.7% for AVR + other surgery and 6.2% for TAVI. In-hospital mortality has significantly improved for all groups. The 5-year survival rates were 82.6% for isolated AVR, 81.7% for AVR + CABG, 74.5% for AVR + other surgery and 46.1% for TAVI. The median PLOS after TAVI was similar to that of isolated AVR but shorter than that of the other AVR groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Since the introduction of TAVI, there has been an increase in both TAVI and AVR activity. TAVIs now represent over 10% of all aortic valve implants. There are distinct differences between procedural groups with respect to patient risk factors. Outcomes for all procedural groups have improved, but long-term TAVI results are required before its role in the treatment of aortic stenosis can be fully defined.

Is social deprivation an independent predictor of outcomes following cardiac surgery? An analysis of 240,221 patients from a national registry

OBJECTIVES

Social deprivation impacts on healthcare outcomes but is not included in the majority of cardiac surgery risk prediction models. The objective was to investigate geographical variations in social deprivation of patients undergoing cardiac surgery and identify whether social deprivation is an independent predictor of outcomes.

METHODS

National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit data for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), or valve surgery performed in England between April 2003 and March 2013, were analysed. Base hospitals in England were divided into geographical regions. Social deprivation was measured by quintile groups of the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) score with the first quintile group (Q1) being the least, and the last quintile group (Q5) the most deprived group. In-hospital mortality and midterm survival were analysed using mixed effects logistic, and stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models respectively.

RESULTS

240,221 operations were analysed. There was substantial regional variation in social deprivation with the proportion of patients in IMD Q5 ranging from 34.5% in the North East to 6.5% in the East of England. Following adjustment for preoperative risk factors, patients undergoing all cardiac surgery in IMD Q5 were found to have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality relative to IMD Q1 (OR=1.13; 95%CI 1.03 to 1.24), as were patients undergoing isolated CABG (OR=1.19; 95%CI 1.03 to 1.37). For midterm survival, patients in IMD Q5 had an increased hazard in all groups (HRs ranged between 1.10 (valve+CABG) and 1.26 (isolated CABG)). For isolated CABG, the median postoperative length of stay was 6 and 7 days, respectively, for IMD Q1-Q4 and Q5.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant regional variation exists in the social deprivation of patients undergoing cardiac surgery in England. Social deprivation is associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality and reduced midterm survival. These findings have implications for health service provision, risk prediction models and analyses of surgical outcomes.

Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register

OBJECTIVES

To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience).

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification.

SETTING

UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience').

CONCLUSIONS

Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required.

Impact of hepatic cirrhosis on outcome in adult cardiac surgery

Increasing prevalence of hepatic disease is likely to translate in a growing number of patients with significant hepatic disease requiring cardiac surgery. Available cardiac risk stratification models do not address the risk associated with hepatic disease. However, weighted mean mortality rates based on previous studies of cardiac surgery in patients with hepatic disease demonstrate operative mortality rates that range from 9.88% (standard deviation [SD] 9.69) for patients in Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class A cirrhosis to 69.23% (SD 28.55) for patients with CTP class C cirrhosis. This review comprehensively appraises the pathophysiology of hepatic disease, reported clinical outcomes and considerations for risk stratification.

Percutaneous Closure of Postinfarction Ventricular Septal Defect

Background—

Postinfarction ventricular septal defect carries a grim prognosis. Surgical repair offers reasonable outcomes in patients who survive a healing phase. Percutaneous device implantation represents a potentially attractive early alternative.

Methods and Results—

Postinfarction ventricular septal defect closure was attempted in 53 patients from 11 centers (1997–2012; aged 72±11 years; 42% female). Nineteen percent had previous surgical closure. Myocardial infarction was anterior (66%) or inferior (34%). Time from myocardial infarction to closure procedure was 13 (first and third quartiles, 5–54) days. Devices were successfully implanted in 89% of patients. Major immediate complications included procedural death (3.8%) and emergency cardiac surgery (7.5%). Immediate shunt reduction was graded as complete (23%), partial (62%), or none (15%). Median length of stay after the procedure was 5.0 (2.0–9.0) days. Fifty-eight percent survived to discharge and were followed up for 395 (63–1522) days, during which time 4 additional patients died (7.5%). Factors associated with death after postinfarction ventricular septal defect closure included the following: age (hazard ratio [HR]=1.04; P =0.039), female sex (HR=2.33; P =0.043), New York Heart Association class IV (HR=4.42; P =0.002), cardiogenic shock (HR=3.75; P =0.003), creatinine (HR=1.007; P =0.003), defect size (HR=1.09; P =0.026), inotropes (HR=4.18; P =0.005), and absence of revascularization therapy for presenting myocardial infarction (HR=3.28; P =0.009). Prior surgical closure (HR=0.12; P =0.040) and immediate shunt reduction (HR=0.49; P =0.037) were associated with survival.

Conclusions—

Percutaneous closure of postinfarction ventricular septal defect is a reasonably effective treatment for these extremely high-risk patients. Mortality remains high, but patients who survive to discharge do well in the longer term.

Mitral valve prosthesis choice for patients aged 65 years and over in the UK. Are the guidelines being followed and does it matter?

OBJECTIVE

Current guidelines recommend that most patients aged ≥65 years should undergo mitral valve replacement (MVR) using a biological prosthesis. The objectives of this study were to assess whether these guidelines are being followed in UK practice, and to investigate whether the guidelines are appropriate based on in-hospital mortality and mid-term survival.

METHODS

Data from the National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit database from all National Health Service (NHS) hospitals and some private hospitals performing adult cardiac surgery in the UK between April 2001 and March 2011 were analysed. The overall cohort included 3862 patients aged ≥65 years who underwent first-time MVR. Propensity score matching and regression adjustment were used to compare outcomes between prosthesis groups.

RESULTS

The mean age was 73.0 years (SD 4.9) with 50% of patients having surgery with a mechanical prosthesis. This proportion decreased over the study period and with increasing patient age with marked variation between hospitals. In the propensity-matched cohort, in-hospital mortality in the biological group was 6.9%, and in the mechanical group it was 5.9% giving an unadjusted OR of 1.17 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.63). There was no significant difference in mid-term survival between the matched groups with an unadjusted HR for biological prosthesis of 1.08 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.24). Similar results were found when using regression adjustment on unmatched data.

CONCLUSIONS

Current guidelines concerning age and mitral valve prosthesis choice are not being followed for patients aged ≥65 years. With regards to in-hospital and mid-term mortality, this study demonstrates that there is no difference between prosthesis types.

Dynamic prediction modeling approaches for cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

The calibration of several cardiac clinical prediction models has deteriorated over time. We compare different model fitting approaches for in-hospital mortality after cardiac surgery that adjust for cross-sectional case mix in a heterogeneous patient population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from >300 000 consecutive cardiac surgery procedures performed at all National Health Service and some private hospitals in England and Wales between April 2001 and March 2011 were extracted from the National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research clinical registry. The study outcome was in-hospital mortality. Model approaches included not updating, periodic refitting, rolling window, and dynamic logistic regression. Covariate adjustment was made in each model using variables included in the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation model. The association between in-hospital mortality and some variables changed with time. Notably, the intercept coefficient has been steadily decreasing during the study period, consistent with decreasing observed mortality. Some risk factors, such as operative urgency and postinfarct ventricular septal defect, have been relatively stable over time, whereas other risk factors, such as left ventricular function and surgery on the thoracic aorta, have been associated with lower risk relative to the static model.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic models or periodic model refitting is necessary to counteract calibration drift. A dynamic modeling framework that uses contemporary and available historic data can provide a continuously smooth update mechanism that also allows for inferences to be made on individual risk factors. Better models that withstand the effects of time give advantages for governance, quality improvement, and patient-level decision making.

The European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS) database: an introduction

OBJECTIVES

Continuous monitoring of surgical outcomes through benchmarking and the identification of best practices has become increasingly important. A structured approach to data collection, coupled with validation, analysis and reporting, is a powerful tool in these endeavours. However, inconsistencies in standards and practices have made comparisons within and between European countries cumbersome. The European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS) has established a large international database with the goals of (i) working with other organizations towards universal data collection and creating a European-wide repository of information on the practice of cardio-thoracic surgery, and (ii) disseminating that information in scientific, peer-reviewed articles. We report on the process of data collection, as well as on an overview of the data in the database.

METHODS

The EACTS Database Committee met for the first time in Monaco, September 2002, to establish the ground rules for the process of setting up the database. Subsequently, data have been collected and merged by Dendrite Clinical Systems Ltd.

RESULTS

As of December 2008, the database included 1,074,168 patient records from 366 hospitals located in 29 countries. The latest submission from the years 2006-08 included 404,721 records. The largest contributors were the UK (32.0%), Germany (20.9%) and Belgium (7.3%). Isolated coronary bypass surgery was the most frequently performed operation; the proportion of surgical workload that comprised isolated coronary artery bypass grafting varied from country to country: 30% in Spain and almost 70% in Denmark. Isolated valve procedures constituted 12% of all procedures in Norway and 32% in Spain. Baseline demographics showed an increase in the mean age and the percentage of patients that were female over time. Remarkably, the mortality rates for all procedures declined over the period analysed, to 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-2.3%) for isolated coronary bypass, 3.4% (95% CI 3.3-3.5%) for isolated valve and 6.2% (95% CI 6.0-6.5%) for bypass + valve procedures.

CONCLUSION

The EACTS database has proven to be an important step forward in providing opportunities for monitoring cardiac surgical care across Europe. As the database continues to expand, it will facilitate research projects, establish benchmarking standards and identify potential areas for quality improvements.

Almanac 2012 adult cardiac surgery: journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

This review covers the important publications in adult cardiac surgery in the last few years, including the current evidence base for surgical revascularisation and the use of off-pump surgery, bilateral internal mammary arteries and endoscopic vein harvesting. The changes in conventional aortic valve surgery are described alongside the outcomes of clinical trials and registries for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, and the introduction of less invasive and novel approaches of conventional aortic valve replacement surgery. Surgery for mitral valve disease is also considered, with particular reference to surgery for asymptomatic degenerative mitral regurgitation.

Performance of the EuroSCORE models in emergency cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk-adjustment models are useful for clinical decision making and are important for minimizing any tendency toward risk-averse clinical practice. In cardiac surgery, emergency patients are potentially at greatest risk of inappropriate risk-averse clinical decisions. UK cardiac surgery outcomes are currently risk-adjusted with EuroSCORE models. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of the EuroSCORE models in emergency cardiac surgery.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research database was used to identify adult cardiac surgery procedures performed in the United Kingdom between April 2008 and March 2011. A subset of procedures (July 2010-March 2011) was used for EuroSCORE II validation. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration plots, calculation of calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver-operating characteristic curve [area under the curve]) were assessed. In total, 109 988 cardiac procedures at 41 hospitals were included, of which 3342 were defined as emergency procedures. Compared with performance in all cardiac surgery and nonemergency cardiac surgery, the logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II models had poorer discrimination (area under the curve, 0.703 and 0.690, respectively) and poorer calibration for emergency surgery. The EuroSCORE risk factors of female sex, chronic pulmonary disease, neurological disease, active endocarditis, unstable angina, recent myocardial infarction, and pulmonary hypertension were not identified as important risk factors for emergency cardiac surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Both EuroSCORE models demonstrated poor calibration and comparatively poor discrimination for emergency cardiac surgery. This has important implications when these models are used for clinical decision making or to adjust governance analyses.

A systematic review of risk prediction in adult cardiac surgery: considerations for future model development

OBJECTIVES

Risk prediction in adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery remains inaccurate and should be further improved. Therefore, we aimed to identify risk factors that are predictive of mortality, stroke, renal failure and/or length of stay after adult cardiac surgery in contemporary practice.

METHODS

We searched the Medline database for English-language original contributions from January 2000 to December 2011 to identify preoperative independent risk factors of one of the following outcomes after adult cardiac surgery: death, stroke, renal failure and/or length of stay. Two investigators independently screened the studies. Inclusion criteria were (i) the study described an adult cardiac patient population; (ii) the study was an original contribution; (iii) multivariable analyses were performed to identify independent predictors; (iv) ≥ 1 of the predefined outcomes was analysed; (v) at least one variable was an independent predictor, or a variable was included in a risk model that was developed.

RESULTS

The search yielded 5768 studies. After the initial title screening, a second screening of the full texts of 1234 studies was performed. Ultimately, 844 studies were included in the systematic review. In these studies, we identified a large number of independent predictors of mortality, stroke, renal failure and length of stay, which could be categorized into variables related to: disease pathology, planned surgical procedure, patient demographics, patient history, patient comorbidities, patient status, blood values, urine values, medication use and gene mutations. Many of these variables are frequently not considered as predictive of outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk estimates of mortality, stroke, renal failure and length of stay may be improved by the inclusion of additional (non-traditional) innovative risk factors. Current and future databases should consider collecting these variables.

Almanac 2012: adult cardiac surgery: the national society journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

This review covers the important publications in adult cardiac surgery in the last few years, including the current evidence base for surgical revascularisation and the use of off-pump surgery, bilateral internal mammary arteries and endoscopic vein harvesting. The changes in conventional aortic valve surgery are described alongside the outcomes of clinical trials and registries for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, and the introduction of less invasive and novel approaches of conventional aortic valve replacement surgery. Surgery for mitral valve disease is also considered, with particular reference to surgery for asymptomatic degenerative mitral regurgitation.

Almanac 2012 adult cardiac surgery: the National Society Journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

This review covers the important publications in adult cardiac surgery in the last few years, including the current evidence base for surgical revascularisation and the use of off-pump surgery, bilateral internal mammary arteries and endoscopic vein harvesting. The changes in conventional aortic valve surgery are described alongside the outcomes of clinical trials and registries for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, and the introduction of less invasive and novel approaches to conventional aortic valve replacement surgery. Surgery for mitral valve disease is also considered, with particular reference to surgery for asymptomatic degenerative mitral regurgitation.

Dynamic trends in cardiac surgery: why the logistic EuroSCORE is no longer suitable for contemporary cardiac surgery and implications for future risk models

OBJECTIVES

Progressive loss of calibration of the original EuroSCORE models has necessitated the introduction of the EuroSCORE II model. Poor model calibration has important implications for clinical decision-making and risk adjustment of governance analyses. The objective of this study was to explore the reasons for the calibration drift of the logistic EuroSCORE.

METHODS

Data from the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland database were analysed for procedures performed at all National Health Service and some private hospitals in England and Wales between April 2001 and March 2011. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. EuroSCORE risk factors, overall model calibration and discrimination were assessed over time.

RESULTS

A total of 317 292 procedures were included. Over the study period, mean age at surgery increased from 64.6 to 67.2 years. The proportion of procedures that were isolated coronary artery bypass grafts decreased from 67.5 to 51.2%. In-hospital mortality fell from 4.1 to 2.8%, but the mean logistic EuroSCORE increased from 5.6 to 7.6%. The logistic EuroSCORE remained a good discriminant throughout the study period (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve between 0.79 and 0.85), but calibration (observed-to-expected mortality ratio) fell from 0.76 to 0.37. Inadequate adjustment for decreasing baseline risk affected calibration considerably.

DISCUSSIONS

Patient risk factors and case-mix in adult cardiac surgery change dynamically over time. Models like the EuroSCORE that are developed using a 'snapshot' of data in time do not account for this and can subsequently lose calibration. It is therefore important to regularly revalidate clinical prediction models.

Almanac 2012--adult cardiac surgery: the national society journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

This review covers the important publications in adult cardiac surgery in the last few years, including the current evidence base for surgical revascularisation and the use of off-pump surgery, bilateral internal mammary arteries and endoscopic vein harvesting. The changes in conventional aortic valve surgery are described alongside the outcomes of clinical trials and registries for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, and the introduction of less invasive and novel approaches of conventional aortic valve replacement surgery. Surgery for mitral valve disease is also considered, with particular reference to surgery for asymptomatic degenerative mitral regurgitation.

Prediction of in-hospital death following aortic valve replacement: a new accurate model

OBJECTIVES

Aortic valve replacement (AVR) is accepted as the standard treatment for severe symptomatic aortic valve stenosis and regurgitation. As novel treatments are introduced for patients at high risk for conventional surgery, it is important to have models that accurately predict procedural risk. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk-stratification model to predict in-hospital risk of death for patients undergoing AVR and to compare the model with existing algorithms.

METHODS

We reviewed data from the Central Cardiac Adult Database, which holds prospectively collected clinical information on all adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery in National Health Service (NHS) hospitals and some private providers in the UK and Ireland. We included all the patients undergoing AVR with or without coronary artery bypass grafting. The study population consists of 55 157 patients undergoing surgery between 1 April 2001 and 31 March 2009. The model was built using data from April 2001 to March 2008 and validated using data from patients undergoing surgery from April 2008 to March 2009. The model was compared against the additive and logistic EuroSCORE models and a valve-specific risk-prediction model.

RESULTS

The final multivariable model includes items describing cardiovascular risk status and procedural factors. Applying the model to the independent validation dataset provided a c-statistic (index of rank correlation) of 0.791, which was substantially better than that achieved by previously developed risk models in Europe, and significantly improved risk prediction in higher-risk patients.

CONCLUSIONS

We have produced an accurate risk model to predict outcome following AVR surgery. It will be of use for patient selection and informed consent, and of particular interest in defining those patients at high risk who may benefit from novel approaches to AVR.

Long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation in high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis: the U.K. TAVI (United Kingdom Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) Registry

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to define the characteristics of a real-world patient population treated with transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI), regardless of technology or access route, and to evaluate their clinical outcome over the mid to long term.

BACKGROUND

Although a substantial body of data exists in relation to early clinical outcomes after TAVI, there are few data on outcomes beyond 1 year in any notable number of patients.

METHODS

The U.K. TAVI (United Kingdom Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) Registry was established to report outcomes of all TAVI procedures performed within the United Kingdom. Data were collected prospectively on 870 patients undergoing 877 TAVI procedures up until December 31, 2009. Mortality tracking was achieved in 100% of patients with mortality status reported as of December 2010.

RESULTS

Survival at 30 days was 92.9%, and it was 78.6% and 73.7% at 1 year and 2 years, respectively. There was a marked attrition in survival between 30 days and 1 year. In a univariate model, survival was significantly adversely affected by renal dysfunction, the presence of coronary artery disease, and a nontransfemoral approach; whereas left ventricular function (ejection fraction <30%), the presence of moderate/severe aortic regurgitation, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease remained the only independent predictors of mortality in the multivariate model.

CONCLUSIONS

Midterm to long-term survival after TAVI was encouraging in this high-risk patient population, although a substantial proportion of patients died within the first year.

What is the impact of providing a transcatheter aortic valve implantation service on conventional aortic valve surgical activity: patient risk factors and outcomes in the first 2 years

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of introducing a transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) service on aortic valve surgical activity and outcomes.

DESIGN

A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.

SETTING

University hospital of south Manchester.

PATIENTS

815 consecutive patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR) or coronary artery bypass grafting plus AVR from January 2006 to December 2009. Fifty consecutive patients who underwent TAVI from January 2008 to December 2009.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Aortic valve surgical activity in the 2years before the introduction of a TAVI service and in the 2years following. Outcomes following conventional aortic valve surgery and TAVI.

RESULTS

In the 2years following the introduction of TAVI at this centre, conventional AVR activity has increased by 37% compared with an 8% increase nationally (p<0.001). Compared with the 2years before TAVI there was no change in the mean logistic EuroSCORE (7.4 vs 7.9 p=0.16) or crude mortality rate (2.9% vs 2.1% p=0.48). Fifty high-risk patients underwent TAVI with a 30-day mortality rate of 0%. The mean logistic EuroSCORE of the TAVI patients was 25.3.

CONCLUSIONS

TAVI is an emerging alternative to AVR in high-risk patients. Since the introduction of a TAVI service at this centre, conventional AVR activity has increased. Despite a trend of increasing mean logistic EuroSCORE indicating that more complex cases are being undertaken, there has been a non-significant reduction in the crude mortality rate. Offering a TAVI service has a positive impact on the volume of conventional AVR surgical activity.

Cardiac registers: the adult cardiac surgery register

AIMS OF THE SCTS ADULT CARDIAC SURGERY DATABASE: To measure the quality of care of adult cardiac surgery in GB and Ireland and provide information for quality improvement and research.

QUALITY OF CARE INTERVENTIONS

Feedback of structured data to hospitals, publication of named hospital and surgeon mortality data, publication of benchmarked activity and risk adjusted clinical outcomes through intermittent comprehensive database reports, annual screening of all hospital and individual surgeon risk adjusted mortality rates by the professional society.

SETTING

All NHS hospitals in England, Scotland and Wales with input from some private providers and hospitals in Ireland.

YEARS

1994-ongoing.

POPULATION

Consecutive patients, unconsented. Current number of records: 400000.

STARTPOINTS

Adult cardiac surgery operations excluding cardiac transplantation and ventricular assist devices.

BASELINE DATA

129 fields covering demographic factors, pre-operative risk factors, operative details and post-operative in-hospital outcomes.

DATA CAPTURE

Entry onto local software systems by direct key board entry or subsequent transcription from paper records, with subsequent electronic upload to the central cardiac audit database. Non-financial incentives at hospital level.

DATA QUALITY

Local validation processes exist in the hospitals. There is currently no external data validation process.

ENDPOINTS AND LINKAGES TO OTHER DATA

All cause mortality is obtained through linkage with Office for National Statistics. No other linkages exist at present.

ACCESS TO DATA

Available for research and audit by application to the SCTS database committee at http://www.scts.org.

Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation does not reduce risk of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass surgery: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) have been reported to reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death presumed to be due to fatal ventricular arrhythmias, but their effect on atrial arrhythmias is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients (n=108) undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery were randomly assigned to receive 2 g/d n-3 PUFA or placebo (olive oil) for at least 5 days before surgery (median, 16 days; range, 12 to 21 days). Phospholipid n-3 PUFA were measured in serum at study entry and at surgery and in right atrial appendage tissue at surgery. Echocardiography was used to assess left ventricular function and left atrial dimensions. Postoperative continuous ECG monitoring (Lifecard CF) for 5 days or until discharge, if earlier, was performed with a daily 12-lead ECG and clinical review if patients remained in the hospital beyond 5 days. Lifecard recordings were analyzed for episodes of atrial fibrillation (AF) > or =30 seconds (primary outcome). Clinical AF, AF burden (% time in AF), hospital stay, and intensive care/high dependency care stay were measured as secondary outcomes. One hundred three patients completed the study (51 in the placebo group and 52 in the n-3 PUFA group). There were no clinically relevant differences in baseline characteristics between groups. n-3 PUFA levels were higher in serum and right atrial tissue in the active treatment group. There was no significant difference between groups in the primary outcome of AF (95% confidence interval [CI], -6% to 30%, P=0.28) in any of the secondary outcomes or in AF-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Omega-3 PUFA do not reduce the risk of AF after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Clinical Trial Registration- www.ukcrn.org.uk. Identifier: 4437.

Quality assessment of cardiac surgery in Britain

Data are available for every Cardiac Surgery unit in Britain and in 70 % are identifiable by surgeon. The data are linked to registration of deaths so survival for a range of operations, and associated patient or procedure related factors, can be evaluated. The choice of statistical triggers (outside 99.99 % confidence intervals) and the time frames of reported data (averaged over three years) (See P.285/353 of the report http://www.scts.org/documents/PDF/5thBlueBook2003.pdf) reduces its value as an early warning system but the rigour of data collecting systems and the level of scrutiny required probably ensure that poor performance will be detected.