Sociocultural and Demographic Factors Predict Readmissions for General Surgery Patients

INTRODUCTION

Readmission is a poor outcome for both patients and healthcare systems. The association of certain sociocultural and demographic characteristics with likelihood of readmission is uncertain in general surgical patients.

METHOD

A multi-centre retrospective cohort study of consecutive unique individuals who survived to discharge during general surgical admissions was conducted. Sociocultural and demographic variables were evaluated alongside clinical parameters (considered both as raw values and their proportion of change in the 1-2 days prior to admission) for their association with 7 and 30 days readmission using logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 12,701 individuals included, with 304 (2.4%) individuals readmitted within 7 days, and 921 (7.3%) readmitted within 30 days. When incorporating absolute values of clinical parameters in the model, age was the only variable significantly associated with 7-day readmission, and primary language and presence of religion were the only variables significantly associated with 30-day readmission. When incorporating change in clinical parameters between the 1-2 days prior to discharge, primary language and religion were predictive of 30-day readmission. When controlling for changes in clinical parameters, only higher comorbidity burden (represented by higher Charlson comorbidity index score) was associated with increased likelihood of 30-day readmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Sociocultural and demographic patient factors such as primary language, presence of religion, age, and comorbidity burden predict the likelihood of 7 and 30-day hospital readmission after general surgery. These findings support early implementation a postoperative care model that integrates all biopsychosocial domains across multiple disciplines of healthcare.

The Adelaide Score: An artificial intelligence measure of readiness for discharge after general surgery

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to examine the performance of machine learning algorithms for the prediction of discharge within 12 and 24 h to produce a measure of readiness for discharge after general surgery.

METHODS

Consecutive general surgery patients at two tertiary hospitals, over a 2-year period, were included. Observation and laboratory parameter data were stratified into training, testing and validation datasets. Random forest, XGBoost and logistic regression models were evaluated. Each ward round note time was taken as a different event. Primary outcome was classification accuracy of the algorithmic model able to predict discharge within the next 12 h on the validation data set.

RESULTS

42 572 ward round note timings were included from 8826 general surgery patients. Discharge occurred within 12 h for 8800 times (20.7%), and within 24 h for 9885 (23.2%). For predicting discharge within 12 h, model classification accuracies for derivation and validation data sets were: 0.84 and 0.85 random forest, 0.84 and 0.83 XGBoost, 0.80 and 0.81 logistic regression. For predicting discharge within 24 h, model classification accuracies for derivation and validation data sets were: 0.83 and 0.84 random forest, 0.82 and 0.81 XGBoost, 0.78 and 0.79 logistic regression. Algorithms generated a continuous number between 0 and 1 (or 0 and 100), representing readiness for discharge after general surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

A derived artificial intelligence measure (the Adelaide Score) successfully predicts discharge within the next 12 and 24 h in general surgery patients. This may be useful for both treating teams and allied health staff within surgical systems.

Decision making: the two stages of neuronal judgement

A recent study of how a monkey's frontal cortex responds when decisions are made more difficult has characterised the two distinct stages which turn sensory evidence into a command for action.

The influence of urgency on decision time

A fruitful quantitative approach to understanding how the brain makes decisions has been to look at the time needed to make a decision, and how it is affected by factors such as the supply of information, or an individual's expectations. This approach has led to a model of decision-making, consistent with recent neurophysiological data, that explains the observed variability of reaction times and correctly predicts the effects of altered expectations. Can it also predict what happens when the urgency of making the response changes? We asked subjects to make eye movements to low-visibility targets either as fast or as accurately as possible, and found that the model does indeed predict the timing of their responses: the degree of urgency seems to influence the criterion level at which a decision signal triggers a response.