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Martins FDM, Vidal AP, Giddaluru J, da Silva BM, Lee EK, Zhang P, Cardozo LE, Prete Junior CA, Domingues HH, Sabino EC, Sampaio VDS, Monteiro WM, Nakaya HI. Temporal and spatial analysis of over 7,000 measles cases outbreak from 2018 to 2019 in the Brazilian Amazon. Einstein (Sao Paulo) 2024; 22:eAO0931. [PMID: 38567917 DOI: 10.31744/einstein_journal/2024ao0931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 04/05/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to present a temporal and spatial analysis of the 2018 measles outbreak in Brazil, particularly in the metropolitan city of Manaus in the Amazon region, and further introduce a new tool for spatial analysis. METHODS We analyzed the geographical data of the residences of over 7,000 individuals with measles in Manaus during 2018 and 2019. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted to characterize various aspects of the outbreak, including the onset and prevalence of symptoms, demographics, and vaccination status. A visualization tool was also constructed to display the geographical and temporal distribution of the reported measles cases. RESULTS Approximately 95% of the included participants had not received vaccination within the past decade. Heterogeneity was observed across all facets of the outbreak, including variations in the incubation period and symptom presentation. Age distribution exhibited two peaks, occurring at one year and 18 years of age, and the potential implications of this distribution on predictive analysis were discussed. Additionally, spatial analysis revealed that areas with the highest case densities tended to have the lowest standard of living. CONCLUSION Understanding the spatial and temporal spread of measles outbreaks provides insights for decision-making regarding measures to mitigate future epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Felipe de Mello Martins
- Escola Superior de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Alessandra Pinheiro Vidal
- Escola Superior de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Jeevan Giddaluru
- Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Bernardo Maia da Silva
- Escola Superior de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Eva K Lee
- Center for Operations Research in Medicine and Healthcare, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA
| | - Peijue Zhang
- Center for Operations Research in Medicine and Healthcare, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA
| | - Lucas Esteves Cardozo
- Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Carlos Augusto Prete Junior
- Department of Electronic Systems Engineering, Escola Politécnica, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Helves Humberto Domingues
- Instituto de Medicinal Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Ester Cerdeira Sabino
- Instituto de Medicinal Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Vanderson de Souza Sampaio
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas Dra. Rosemary Costa Pinto, Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Instituto Todos pela Saúde, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro
- Escola Superior de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Doutor Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brazil
- Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Helder I Nakaya
- Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
- Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
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