A Systematic Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Biomarkers for Major Depressive Disorder

Importance

Biological psychiatry aims to understand mental disorders in terms of altered neurobiological pathways. However, for one of the most prevalent and disabling mental disorders, major depressive disorder (MDD), no informative biomarkers have been identified.

Objective

To evaluate whether machine learning (ML) can identify a multivariate biomarker for MDD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study used data from the Marburg-Münster Affective Disorders Cohort Study, a case-control clinical neuroimaging study. Patients with acute or lifetime MDD and healthy controls aged 18 to 65 years were recruited from primary care and the general population in Münster and Marburg, Germany, from September 11, 2014, to September 26, 2018. The Münster Neuroimaging Cohort (MNC) was used as an independent partial replication sample. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to June 2023.

Exposure

Patients with MDD and healthy controls.

Main Outcome and Measure

Diagnostic classification accuracy was quantified on an individual level using an extensive ML-based multivariate approach across a comprehensive range of neuroimaging modalities, including structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging as well as a polygenic risk score for depression.

Results

Of 1801 included participants, 1162 (64.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 36.1 (13.1) years. There were a total of 856 patients with MDD (47.5%) and 945 healthy controls (52.5%). The MNC replication sample included 1198 individuals (362 with MDD [30.1%] and 836 healthy controls [69.9%]). Training and testing a total of 4 million ML models, mean (SD) accuracies for diagnostic classification ranged between 48.1% (3.6%) and 62.0% (4.8%). Integrating neuroimaging modalities and stratifying individuals based on age, sex, treatment, or remission status does not enhance model performance. Findings were replicated within study sites and also observed in structural magnetic resonance imaging within MNC. Under simulated conditions of perfect reliability, performance did not significantly improve. Analyzing model errors suggests that symptom severity could be a potential focus for identifying MDD subgroups.

Conclusion and Relevance

Despite the improved predictive capability of multivariate compared with univariate neuroimaging markers, no informative individual-level MDD biomarker-even under extensive ML optimization in a large sample of diagnosed patients-could be identified.

Narcissistic dimensions and depressive symptoms in patients across mental disorders in cognitive behavioural therapy and in psychoanalytic interactional therapy in Germany: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Narcissistic personality traits have been theorised to negatively affect depressive symptoms, therapeutic alliance, and treatment outcome, even in the absence of narcissistic personality disorder. We aimed to examine how the dimensional narcissistic facets of admiration and rivalry affect depressive symptoms across treatment modalities in two transdiagnostic samples.

METHODS

We did a naturalistic, observational prospective cohort study in two independent adult samples in Germany: one sample pooled from an inpatient psychiatric clinic and an outpatient treatment service offering cognitive behavioural treatment (CBT), and one sample from an inpatient clinic providing psychoanalytic interactional therapy (PIT). Inpatients treated with CBT had an affective or psychotic disorder. For the other two sites, data from all service users were collected. We examined the effect of core narcissism and its facets admiration and rivalry, measured by Narcissistic Admiration and Rivalry Questionnaire-short version, on depressive symptoms, measured by Beck's Depression Inventory and Patient Health Questionnaire-Depression Scale, at baseline and after treatment in patients treated with CBT and PIT. Primary analyses were regression models, predicting baseline and post-treatment depression severity from core narcissism and its facets. Mediation analysis was done in the outpatient CBT group for the effect of the therapeutic alliance on the association between narcissism and depression severity after treatment.

FINDINGS

The sample included 2371 patients (1423 [60·0%] female and 948 [40·0%] male; mean age 33·13 years [SD 13·19; range 18-81), with 517 inpatients and 1052 outpatients in the CBT group, and 802 inpatients in the PIT group. Ethnicity data were not collected. Mean treatment duration was 300 days (SD 319) for CBT and 67 days (SD 26) for PIT. Core narcissism did not predict depression severity before treatment in either group, but narcissistic rivalry was associated with higher depressive symptom load at baseline (β 2·47 [95% CI 1·78 to 3·12] for CBT and 1·05 [0·54 to 1·55] for PIT) and narcissistic admiration showed the opposite effect (-2·02 [-2·62 to -1·41] for CBT and -0·64 [-1·11 to -0·17] for PIT). Poorer treatment response was predicted by core narcissism (β 0·79 [0·10 to 1·47]) and narcissistic rivalry (0·89 [0·19 to 1·58]) in CBT, whereas admiration showed no effect. No effect of narcissism on treatment outcome was discernible in PIT. Therapeutic alliance mediated the effect of narcissism on post-treatment depression severity in the outpatient CBT sample.

INTERPRETATION

As narcissism affects depression severity before and after treatment with CBT across psychiatric disorders, even in the absence of narcissistic personality disorder, the inclusion of dimensional assessments of narcissism should be considered in future research and clinical routines. The relevance of the therapeutic alliance and therapeutic strategy could be used to guide treatment approaches.

FUNDING

IZKF Münster.

TRANSLATION

For the German translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Can Synthetic Images Improve CNN Performance in Wound Image Classification?

For artificial intelligence (AI) based systems to become clinically relevant, they must perform well. Machine Learning (ML) based AI systems require a large amount of labelled training data to achieve this level. In cases of a shortage of such large amounts, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) are a standard tool for synthesising artificial training images that can be used to augment the data set. We investigated the quality of synthetic wound images regarding two aspects: (i) improvement of wound-type classification by a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and (ii) how realistic such images look to clinical experts (n = 217). Concerning (i), results show a slight classification improvement. However, the connection between classification performance and the size of the artificial data set is still unclear. Regarding (ii), although the GAN could produce highly realistic images, the clinical experts took them for real in only 31% of the cases. It can be concluded that image quality may play a more significant role than data size in improving the CNN-based classification result.

Symptom monitoring based on digital data collection during inpatient treatment of schizophrenia spectrum disorders - A feasibility study

Digital acquisition of patients' self-reports on individual risk factors and symptom severity represents a promising, cost-efficient, and increasingly prevalent approach for standardized data collection in psychiatric clinical routine. Yet, studies investigating digital data collection in patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (PSSDs) are scarce. The objective of this study was to explore the feasibility of digitally acquired self-report assessments of risk and symptom profiles at the time of admission into inpatient treatment in an age-representative sample of hospitalized PSSDs. We investigated the required support, the data entry pace, and the subjective user experience. Findings were compared with those of patients with an affective disorder (PADs). Of 82 PSSDs who were eligible for inclusion, 59.8% (n=49) agreed to participate in the study, of whom 54.2% (n=26) could enter data without any assistance. Inclusion rates, drop-out rates, and subjective experience ratings did not differ between PSSDs and PADs. Patients reported high satisfaction with the assessment. PSSDs required more support and time for the data entry than PADs. Our results indicate that digital data collection is a feasible and well-received method in PSSDs. Future clinical and research efforts on digitized assessments in psychiatry should include PSSDs and offer support to reduce digital exclusion.

Quantifying Deviations of Brain Structure and Function in Major Depressive Disorder Across Neuroimaging Modalities

IMPORTANCE

Identifying neurobiological differences between patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and healthy individuals has been a mainstay of clinical neuroscience for decades. However, recent meta-analyses have raised concerns regarding the replicability and clinical relevance of brain alterations in depression.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the upper bounds of univariate effect sizes, estimated predictive utility, and distributional dissimilarity of healthy individuals and those with depression across structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion-tensor imaging, and functional task-based as well as resting-state MRI, and to compare results with an MDD polygenic risk score (PRS) and environmental variables.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a cross-sectional, case-control clinical neuroimaging study. Data were part of the Marburg-Münster Affective Disorders Cohort Study. Patients with depression and healthy controls were recruited from primary care and the general population in Münster and Marburg, Germany. Study recruitment was performed from September 11, 2014, to September 26, 2018. The sample comprised patients with acute and chronic MDD as well as healthy controls in the age range of 18 to 65 years. Data were analyzed from October 29, 2020, to April 7, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary analyses included univariate partial effect size (η2), classification accuracy, and distributional overlapping coefficient for healthy individuals and those with depression across neuroimaging modalities, controlling for age, sex, and additional modality-specific confounding variables. Secondary analyses included patient subgroups for acute or chronic depressive status.

RESULTS

A total of 1809 individuals (861 patients [47.6%] and 948 controls [52.4%]) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 35.6 [13.2] years; 1165 female patients [64.4%]). The upper bound of the effect sizes of the single univariate measures displaying the largest group difference ranged from partial η2 of 0.004 to 0.017, and distributions overlapped between 87% and 95%, with classification accuracies ranging between 54% and 56% across neuroimaging modalities. This pattern remained virtually unchanged when considering either only patients with acute or chronic depression. Differences were comparable with those found for PRS but substantially smaller than for environmental variables.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Results of this case-control study suggest that even for maximum univariate biological differences, deviations between patients with MDD and healthy controls were remarkably small, single-participant prediction was not possible, and similarity between study groups dominated. Biological psychiatry should facilitate meaningful outcome measures or predictive approaches to increase the potential for a personalization of the clinical practice.