The future of sub-Saharan Africa’s biodiversity in the face of climate and societal change

Many of the world’s most biodiverse regions are found in the poorest and second most populous continent of Africa; a continent facing exceptional challenges. Africa is projected to quadruple its population by 2100 and experience increasingly severe climate change and environmental conflict—all of which will ravage biodiversity. Here we assess conservation threats facing Africa and consider how these threats will be affected by human population growth, economic expansion, and climate change. We then evaluate the current capacity and infrastructure available to conserve the continent’s biodiversity. We consider four key questions essential for the future of African conservation: (1) how to build societal support for conservation efforts within Africa; (2) how to build Africa’s education, research, and management capacity; (3) how to finance conservation efforts; and (4) is conservation through development the appropriate approach for Africa? While the challenges are great, ways forward are clear, and we present ideas on how progress can be made. Given Africa’s current modest capacity to address its biodiversity crisis, additional international funding is required, but estimates of the cost of conserving Africa’s biodiversity are within reach. The will to act must build on the sympathy for conservation that is evident in Africa, but this will require building the education capacity within the continent. Considering Africa’s rapidly growing population and the associated huge economic needs, options other than conservation through development need to be more effectively explored. Despite the gravity of the situation, we believe that concerted effort in the coming decades can successfully curb the loss of biodiversity in Africa.

Long-term trends in a forest ungulate community: park establishment increases numbers, but poaching is a constant threat

Deforestation represents one of the greatest threats to tropical forest mammals, and the situation is greatly exacerbated by bushmeat hunting. To construct informed conservation plans, information must be gathered about responses to habitat degradation, regeneration, and hunting over a sufficiently long period to allow demographic responses. We quantified changes in the abundance of three commonly occurring ungulate species (i.e., bushbuck, Tragelaphus scriptus; red duiker, Cephalophus sp.; blue duiker, Cephalophus monticola) at eight sites in Kibale National Park, Uganda (old growth=3; logged=3; regenerating=2) for 23 years. Changes in abundance (363 surveys totaling 1 450 km) were considered in regard to the park's management strategy, regional economic indicators, and estimates of illegal hunting. Bushbuck abundance increased in old-growth and logged forests from 1996 to 2009, and then oscillated around this level or declined. Duiker abundance demonstrated a similar pattern, but abundance in the old-growth forests showed a general increase from 1996 to present day. Duiker abundance in the logged forests exhibited an early increase, but subsequent oscillation. Poaching signs per patrol have remained stable over the last decade, despite increases in the size of the surrounding population, cost of living, and cost of schooling, thus reflecting successful efforts in conservation education and enforcement. Our study highlights the positive impact of park establishment, patrol, and conservation efforts on ungulate populations and shows the adaptability of forest mammal populations to different management schemes.

Spatiotemporal trends of illegal activities from ranger-collected data in a Ugandan national park

Within protected areas, biodiversity loss is often a consequence of illegal resource use. Understanding the patterns and extent of illegal activities is therefore essential for effective law enforcement and prevention of biodiversity declines. We used extensive data, commonly collected by ranger patrols in many protected areas, and Bayesian hierarchical models to identify drivers, trends, and distribution of multiple illegal activities within the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area (QECA), Uganda. Encroachment (e.g., by pastoralists with cattle) and poaching of noncommercial animals (e.g., snaring bushmeat) were the most prevalent illegal activities within the QECA. Illegal activities occurred in different areas of the QECA. Poaching of noncommercial animals was most widely distributed within the national park. Overall, ecological covariates, although significant, were not useful predictors for occurrence of illegal activities. Instead, the location of illegal activities in previous years was more important. There were significant increases in encroachment and noncommercial plant harvesting (nontimber products) during the study period (1999-2012). We also found significant spatiotemporal variation in the occurrence of all activities. Our results show the need to explicitly model ranger patrol effort to reduce biases from existing uncorrected or capture per unit effort analyses. Prioritization of ranger patrol strategies is needed to target illegal activities; these strategies are determined by protected area managers, and therefore changes at a site-level can be implemented quickly. These strategies should also be informed by the location of past occurrences of illegal activity: the most useful predictor of future events. However, because spatial and temporal changes in illegal activities occurred, regular patrols throughout the protected area, even in areas of low occurrence, are also required.

Inappropriate enrollment of children in schools for the visually impaired in east Africa

BACKGROUND

Many visually impaired children can learn to read print with appropriate training and simple visual aids. This may allow them to attend normal schools and to be integrated into society, which has lifelong benefits. Yet, in Africa, many visually impaired children are enrolled in special schools and taught only Braille. The purpose of this analysis was to document the extent of inappropriate enrollment of visually impaired children in special schools and annexes for the blind in four African countries.

METHODS

Schools were selected through a population-proportional-to-size method so that they would represent all children attending special schools in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda. Children were examined by ophthalmologists trained in standardised methods to determine visual acuity and the cause of decreased acuity.

RESULTS

Of 1062 children examined in special schools and annexes for the blind, 361 (34%, 95% CI 31.2, 36.8) had visual acuity >or=6/60; the most common cause of visual impairment was retinal disease. Of the 120 children with normal vision (>or=6/18), 69 (57.5%) had two normal eyes, 21 (17.5%) had an obvious ocular disfigurement in the fellow eye and 10 (8.4%) had had successful cataract surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

In these countries, many children are placed inappropriately in special schools and annexes for the blind. The reasons are multiple and to rectify the situation will require advocacy and cooperation between ministries of health and education.