Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on HIV Outcomes in the United States: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted sexual behaviors and the HIV continuum of care in the United States, reducing HIV testing and diagnosis, and use of preexposure prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to understand the future implications of these effects through a modeling study.

METHODS

We first ran our compartmental model of HIV transmission in the United States accounting for pandemic-related short-term changes in transmission behavior and HIV prevention and care provision in 2020 to 2021 only. We then ran a comparison scenario that did not apply pandemic effects but assumed a continuation of past HIV prevention and care trends. We compared results from the 2 scenarios through 2024.

RESULTS

HIV incidence was 4·4% lower in 2020 to 2021 for the pandemic scenario compared with the no-pandemic scenario because of reduced levels of transmission behavior, despite reductions in HIV prevention and care caused by the pandemic. However, reduced care led to less viral load suppression among people with HIV in 2020, and in turn, our model resulted in a slightly greater incidence of 2·0% from 2022 to 2024 in the COVID-19 scenario, as compared with the non-COVID scenario.

DISCUSSION

Disruptions in HIV prevention and care services during COVID-19 may lead to somewhat higher postpandemic HIV incidence than assuming prepandemic trends in HIV care and prevention continued. These results underscore the importance of continuing to increase HIV prevention and care efforts in the coming years.

Selecting Evidence-Based HIV Prevention Behavioral Interventions for HIV-Negative Persons for National Dissemination

This paper describes the development of a formula to determine which evidence-based behavioral interventions (EBIs) targeting HIV-negative persons would be cost-saving in comparison to the lifetime cost of HIV treatment and the process by which this formula was used to prioritize those with greatest potential impact for continued dissemination. We developed a prevention benefit index (PBI) to rank risk-reduction EBIs for HIV-negative persons based on their estimated cost for achieving the behavior change per one would-be incident infection of HIV. Inputs for calculating the PBI included the mean estimated cost-per-client served, EBI effect size for the behavior change, and the HIV incidence per 100,000 persons in the target population. EBIs for which the PBI was ≤ $402,000, the estimated lifetime cost of HIV care, were considered cost-saving. We were able to calculate a PBI for 35 EBI and target population combinations. Ten EBIs were cost-saving having a PBI below $402,000. One EBI did not move forward for dissemination due to high start-up dissemination costs. DHAP now supports the dissemination of 9 unique EBIs targeting 13 populations of HIV-negative persons. The application of a process, such as the PBI, may assist other health-field policymakers when making decisions about how to select and fund implementation of EBIs.

Retinoids and drugs of abuse: implications for neurological disease risk in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection

Among injection drug users, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 infection may be associated with an increased risk of nervous system disease. For HIV-infected drug users with vitamin A deficiency, the overall risk of HIV-related morbidity and mortality may also be higher. In previous studies, levels of retinol, retinol-binding protein, and transthyretin in samples from such individuals were examined and found to be lower than such levels in seronegative control subjects. Also, in studies using an activated mononuclear cell line, all-trans retinoic acid and 9-cis retinoic acid suppressed production of the tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha and interferon (IFN)-gamma. However, simultaneous exposure of the cells to morphine at a concentration similar to that to which drug users are exposed resulted in increased production of these cytokines. Therefore, morphine may alter the immunomodulatory effects of retinoids, thereby potentially affecting the clinical outcome of studies involving retinoid administration to HIV-infected drug users and increasing the risk for the development of HIV-related complications, including neurological disease.

Needle-exchange attendance and health care utilization promote entry into detoxification

This study was undertaken to identify factors associated with entry into detoxification among injection drug users (IDUs), and to assess the role of needle-exchange programs (NEPs) as a bridge to treatment. IDUs undergoing semiannual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) tests and interviews were studied prospectively between 1994 and 1998, during which time an NEP was introduced in Baltimore. Logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of entry into detoxification, stratifying by HIV serostatus. Of 1,490 IDUs, similar proportions of HIV-infected and uninfected IDUs entered detoxification (25% vs. 23%, respectively). After accounting for recent drug use, hospital admission was associated with four-fold increased odds of entering detoxification for HIV-seronegative subjects. Among HIV-infected subjects, hospital admission, outpatient medical care, and having health insurance independently increased the odds of entering detoxification. After accounting for these and other variables, needle-exchange attendance also was associated independently with entering detoxification for both HIV-infected (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.2) and uninfected IDUs (AOR = 1.4). However, among HIV-infected subjects, the increased odds of detoxification associated with needle exchange diminished significantly over time, concomitant with statewide reductions in detoxification admissions. These findings indicate that health care providers and NEPs represent an important bridge to drug abuse treatment for HIV-infected and uninfected IDUs. Creating and sustaining these linkages may facilitate entry into drug abuse treatment and serve the important public health goal of increasing the number of drug users in treatment.

The effect of drug-injection behavior on genetic evolution of HIV-1

The effect of injection-drug use on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) env genetic evolution was examined in 15 seroconverting injection-drug users followed up for 4 years. After adjustment for non-drug-related independent variables significantly associated with genetic diversity (time since seroconversion and progressor status), injection frequency was positively and highly significantly associated with HIV-1 env genetic diversity (P=.003). The mutation rate in those who had injected at least once a day during the previous 6 months was estimated to be 62% greater than the rate in those who had not injected at all. If the positive effect of drug-injection frequency on env genetic diversity extends to the HIV-1 pol gene, the risk of emergence of resistance to antiretroviral drugs may be enhanced by increased drug-injection frequency, especially under the selection pressure of antiretroviral therapy.