Covid-19 Riskscapes: Viral Risk Perceptions in the African Great Lakes

In this article we explore Covid-19 riskscapes across the African Great Lakes region. Drawing on fieldwork across Uganda and Malawi, our analysis centers around how two mobile, trans-border figures - truck drivers and migrant traders - came to be understood as shifting, yet central loci of perceived viral risk. We argue that political decision-making processes, with specific reference to the influence of Covid-19 testing regimes and reported disease metrics, aggravated antecedent geographies of blame targeted at mobile "others". We find that using grounded riskscapes to examine localised renditions of risk reveals otherwise neglected forms of discriminatory discourse and practice.

Legacies of humanitarian neglect: long term experiences of children who returned from the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Much has been written about the short-term challenges facing children returning 'home' from rebel fighting groups, but little is known about the longer term day to day realities of return. This article presents findings from the first long-term assessment of the social and economic challenges facing an officially registered group of children who passed through an internationally-financed reception centre after a period of time with the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA).

METHODS

Records from a reception centre were used to trace a random sample of individuals to their current location. Two hundred and thirty in-depth semi-structured interviews were carried out and 40 follow-up interviews between 2013 and 2016. Interviews were informed by long-term ethnographic research in the region. These interviews were subsequently coded and analysed to describe the long-term day to day realities of return.

RESULTS

At the time of interview, 90% of formerly abducted people returned 'home' six or more years ago, and 75% returned nine or more years ago. The majority have managed to access family land for farming, but concerns about what they may have done to survive whilst living with the LRA adversely affects their day-to-day lives. However, some important differences were noted: those men and women who spent less time with the LRA are more likely to live on ancestral land with close relatives; and they are more likely to report experiencing stigma and a spiritual affliction called 'cen'. In contrast, those who spent the longest time with the LRA are less likely to report these problems, they are mainly living in urban locations and tend to manage slightly better. Children born of war are vulnerable to abuse, irrespective of current residence.

CONCLUSIONS

Research findings question the merits of post-conflict reintegration programmes emphasising immediate family reunifications, without follow-up monitoring, social protection, education and skills training. By overlooking the diverse experiences of those who lived and fought with the LRA, and failing to anticipate or respond to the long term socio-political and economic challenges facing children on their return, reception centre processes not only failed to foster social reintegration, but they also inadvertently exacerbated the vulnerability of returning children.

Examining the governance and structure of the global health financing system using network analyses

Background

Development assistance for health (DAH) has been a vital in achieving the improvements in health since the year 2000. This was facilitated through the distribution of financial and in-kind resources, valued at over $37 billion in 2017, from a group of global health and development entities to low- and middle-income countries. The resources from these organisations originated from a variety of sources, including national treasuries, philanthropic foundations, and private corporations. The allocation of these resources are also governance arrangements, in many cases with disease and intervention priorities determined outside the recipient localities.

Methods

The structure of global health financing was investigated using network analyses of DAH actors in the context of disease/health area-specific funding. The dataset utilised in the analyses, assembled by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, consisted of 27 years of annual estimates (1990-2017) of DAH flows tracked from sources through channels to 177 recipient countries, disaggregated by health area.

Results

The number and diversity of organisations involved in global health financing saw a rapid expansion since 1990. The most prominent structural changes were the recession of large multi-laterals and the emergence of non-OECD and private entities. Amongst these, unofficial partnerships were detected. This study identified several weaknesses in the global health financing system pertaining to specific diseases as well as child and maternal health.

Conclusions

To provide sustainable, efficient, and effective health intervention implementation in DAH-recipient countries, it is important to understand the structure of the global health funding system. These results will be used to develop potential future financing scenarios, and to understand the impact of the global health financing structural characteristics on the improvement of targeted health outcomes in developing countries.

Key messages

Global health financing has undergone substantial structural changes since 1990, with multi-laterals scaling back proportionally and the emergence new types of entities. The governance and delivery arrangements within global health are linked to the financial arrangements, potentially causing structural weaknesses that threaten the sustainability of the system.

Localising evidence for decision-making: participatory approach to inform schistosomiasis control

Background

The linear theories of change which ground many interventions do not account for the complex processes and systems in which they are implemented. This reductionist approach prioritises statistical methods which do not accommodate the stochastic, non-linear, dynamic interactions between humans and their environment. The inclusion of practitioners in the process of evidence development and utilisation of complex systems methods mitigates these issues and results in locally relevant, timely evidence for decision-making.

Methods

The aim of this work was to develop localised evidence for decision-making for schistosomiasis control in Uganda, Malawi, and Tanzania. Workshops were conducted with practitioners from the Ministries of Health at various levels and partner organisations to identify evidence needs for their decision-making processes and perceptions of disease transmission and control activities. Participatory systems mapping was used to identify factors directly and indirectly related to transmission. The maps were synthesised to a master complex systems map, which served as the blueprint for a generalised spatial agent-based model and specific ABMs tailored to the evidence needs of decision-makers.

Results

There was a gap in available evidence for practitioners to advocate for resources within the MoH and government budgets, as well as intervention efficacy and resource allocation. The adaptable and data-inclusive characteristics of the AMBs made them well-suited to produce localised outputs. Converted to NetLogo with a tailored user interface, these models were appropriate and responsive to the needs of decision-makers from village to national levels and across country contexts.

Conclusions

Used together, participatory and agent-based modelling resulted in the development of responsive and relevant evidence for practitioner decision-making. This process is generalisable and transferable to other diseases and locations outside of those in this study.

Key messages

The use of participatory systems mapping to develop agent-based models resulted in relevant and timely evidence for practitioner decision-making. The approach used here is transferable and generalisable outside schistosomiasis control and the contexts in this study.

Population coverage of artemisinin-based combination treatment in children younger than 5 years with fever and Plasmodium falciparum infection in Africa, 2003-2015: a modelling study using data from national surveys

BACKGROUND

Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the most effective treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection. A commonly used indicator for monitoring and assessing progress in coverage of malaria treatment is the proportion of children younger than 5 years with reported fever in the previous 14 days who have received an ACT. We propose an improved indicator that incorporates parasite infection status (as assessed by a rapid diagnostic test [RDT]), which is available in recent household surveys. In this study we estimated the annual proportion of children younger than 5 years with fever and a positive RDT in Africa who received an ACT in 2003-15.

METHODS

Our modelling study used cross-sectional data on treatment for fever and RDT status for children younger than 5 years compiled from all nationally available representative household surveys (the Malaria Indicator Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys) across sub-Saharan Africa between 2003 and 2015. Estimates for the proportion of children younger than 5 years with a fever within the previous 14 days and P falciparum infection assessed by RDT who received an ACT were incorporated in a generalised additive mixed model, including data on ACT distributions, to estimate coverage across all countries and time periods. We did random effects meta-analyses to examine individual, household, and community effects associated with ACT coverage.

FINDINGS

We obtained data on 201 704 children younger than 5 years from 103 surveys (22 MIS, 61 DHS, and 20 MICS) across 33 countries. RDT results were available for 40 of these surveys including 40 261 (20%) children, and we predicted RDT status for the remaining 161 443 (80%) children. Our results showed that ACT coverage in children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection increased across sub-Saharan Africa in 2003-15, but even in 2015, only 19·7% (95% CI 15·6-24·8) of children younger than 5 years with a fever and P falciparum infection received an ACT. In meta-analyses, children younger than 5 years were more likely to receive an ACT for fever and P falciparum infection if they lived in an urban area (vs rural area; odds ratio [OR] 1·18, 95% CI 1·06-1·31), had household wealth above the national median (vs wealth below the median; OR 1·26, 1·16-1·39), had a caregiver with any education (vs no education; OR 1·31, 1·22-1·41), had a household insecticide-treated net (ITN; vs no ITN; OR 1·21, 1·13-1·29), were older than 2 years (vs ≤2 years; OR 1·09, 1·01-1·17), or lived in an area with a higher mean P falciparum prevalence in children aged 2-10 years (OR 1·12, 1·02-1·23). In the subgroup of children for whom treatment was sought, those who sought treatment in the public sector were more likely to receive an ACT (vs the private sector; OR 3·18, 2·67-3·78).

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress during the 2003-15 malaria programme, ACT treatment for children with malaria remains unacceptably low. More work is needed at the country level to understand how health-care access, service delivery, and ACT supply might be improved to ensure appropriate treatment for all children with malaria.

FUNDING

US President's Malaria Initiative and Medicines for Malaria Venture.

Malaria: Global progress 2000 - 2015 and future challenges

Background

2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other international institutions to reduce malaria incidence and mortality. A review of progress indicates that malaria programme financing and coverage have been transformed since the beginning of the millennium, and have contributed to substantial reductions in the burden of disease.

Findings

Investments in malaria programmes increased by more than 2.5 times between 2005 and 2014 from US$ 960 million to US$ 2.5 billion, allowing an expansion in malaria prevention, diagnostic testing and treatment programmes. In 2015 more than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa slept under insecticide-treated mosquito nets, compared to just 2 % in 2000. Increased availability of rapid diagnostic tests and antimalarial medicines has allowed many more people to access timely and appropriate treatment. Malaria incidence rates have decreased by 37 % globally and mortality rates by 60 % since 2000. It is estimated that 70 % of the reductions in numbers of cases in sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed to malaria interventions.

Conclusions

Reductions in malaria incidence and mortality rates have been made in every WHO region and almost every country. However, decreases in malaria case incidence and mortality rates were slowest in countries that had the largest numbers of malaria cases and deaths in 2000; reductions in incidence need to be greatly accelerated in these countries to achieve future malaria targets. Progress is made challenging because malaria is concentrated in countries and areas with the least resourced health systems and the least ability to pay for system improvements. Malaria interventions are nevertheless highly cost-effective and have not only led to significant reductions in the incidence of the disease but are estimated to have saved about US$ 900 million in malaria case management costs to public providers in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2014. Investments in malaria programmes can not only reduce malaria morbidity and mortality, thereby contributing to the health targets of the Sustainable Development Goals, but they can also transform the well-being and livelihood of some of the poorest communities across the globe.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-016-0151-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Coverage and system efficiencies of insecticide-treated nets in Africa from 2000 to 2017

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria control are widespread but coverage remains inadequate. We developed a Bayesian model using data from 102 national surveys, triangulated against delivery data and distribution reports, to generate year-by-year estimates of four ITN coverage indicators. We explored the impact of two potential 'inefficiencies': uneven net distribution among households and rapid rates of net loss from households. We estimated that, in 2013, 21% (17%-26%) of ITNs were over-allocated and this has worsened over time as overall net provision has increased. We estimated that rates of ITN loss from households are more rapid than previously thought, with 50% lost after 23 (20-28) months. We predict that the current estimate of 920 million additional ITNs required to achieve universal coverage would in reality yield a lower level of coverage (77% population access). By improving efficiency, however, the 920 million ITNs could yield population access as high as 95%.