Investigating the Long-term Effect of Pregnancy on the Course of Multiple Sclerosis Using Causal Inference

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The question of the long-term safety of pregnancy is a major concern in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), but its study is biased by reverse causation (women with higher disability are less likely to experience pregnancy). Using a causal inference approach, we aimed to estimate the unbiased long-term effects of pregnancy on disability and relapse risk in patients with MS and secondarily the short-term effects (during the perpartum and postpartum years) and delayed effects (occurring beyond 1 year after delivery).

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study with data from patients with MS followed in the Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques registry between 1990 and 2020. We included female patients with MS aged 18-45 years at MS onset, clinically followed up for more than 2 years, and with ≥3 Expanded Disease Status Scale (EDSS) measurements. Outcomes were the mean EDSS score at the end of follow-up and the annual probability of relapse during follow-up. Counterfactual outcomes were predicted using the longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimator in the entire study population. The patients exposed to at least 1 pregnancy during their follow-up were compared with the counterfactual situation in which, contrary to what was observed, they would not have been exposed to any pregnancy. Short-term and delayed effects were analyzed from the first pregnancy of early-exposed patients (who experienced it during their first 3 years of follow-up).

RESULTS

We included 9,100 patients, with a median follow-up duration of 7.8 years, of whom 2,125 (23.4%) patients were exposed to at least 1 pregnancy. Pregnancy had no significant long-term causal effect on the mean EDSS score at 9 years (causal mean difference [95% CI] = 0.00 [-0.16 to 0.15]) or on the annual probability of relapse (causal risk ratio [95% CI] = 0.95 [0.93-1.38]). For the 1,253 early-exposed patients, pregnancy significantly decreased the probability of relapse during the perpartum year and significantly increased it during the postpartum year, but no significant delayed effect was found on the EDSS and relapse rate.

DISCUSSION

Using a causal inference approach, we found no evidence of significantly deleterious or beneficial long-term effects of pregnancy on disability. The beneficial effects found in other studies were probably related to a reverse causation bias.

Improving the decision to switch from first- to second-line therapy in multiple sclerosis: A dynamic scoring system

BACKGROUND

In relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), early identification of suboptimal responders can prevent disability progression.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop and validate a dynamic score to guide the early decision to switch from first- to second-line therapy.

METHODS

Using time-dependent propensity scores (PS) from a French cohort of 12,823 patients with RRMS, we constructed one training and two validation PS-matched cohorts to compare the switched patients to second-line treatment and the maintained patients. We used a frailty Cox model for predicting individual hazard ratios (iHRs).

RESULTS

From the validation PS-matched cohort of 348 independent patients with iHR ⩽ 0.69, we reported the 5-year relapse-free survival at 0.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.09-0.22) for the waiting group and 0.40 (95% CI 0.32-0.51) for the switched group. From the validation PS-matched cohort of 518 independent patients with iHR > 0.69, these values were 0.37 (95% CI 0.30-0.46) and 0.44 (95% CI 0.37-0.52), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

By using the proposed dynamic score, we estimated that at least one-third of patients could benefit from an earlier switch to prevent relapse.

NMOSD-like and longitudinal extensive HTLV1-associated myelitis are extremes that flank an overlooked continuum

Background

HTLV1-associated myelitis (HAM) is a slowly progressive myelopathy in which spinal cord MRI demonstrates no lesion or atrophy.

Objective

We examined the overlap between NMOSD features and HTLV1 infection.

Methods

We included all HTLV1-infected patients recruited in French West Indies (FWI) or referred from different centers, and suffering from at least one NMOSD feature. Literature connecting HTLV1-infection and NMOSD was reviewed.

Results

We included six NMOSD-like HAM with acute onset, seronegative against AQP4 and MOG-Abs. All displayed extensive longitudinal myelitis, and the optic nerve was involved in three. We gathered 39 cases of NMOSD-like HAM patients from the literature. Atypical signs of HAM were relapses (15.4%), sensory level (50%), upper limb symptoms (35.9%), optic neuritis (10.2%). Typical lesions involved lateral funiculi and featured a double rope sign (56.3%).

Conclusion

We propose that acute onset of NMOSD-like HAM could be more frequent than expected and should be evoked in high-risk patients. Extensive but often transient cord lesions could be the hallmark of an excessive inflammation of the funiculi targeted by HTLV1 infection. Although usually minor, a few HAM cases demonstrate specific MRI lesions, and the most severe cases may mimic NMOSD attacks.

Untreated patients with multiple sclerosis: A study of French expert centers

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have an impact on relapses and disease progression. Nonetheless, many patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) remain untreated. The objectives of the present study were to determine the proportion of untreated patients with MS followed in expert centers in France and to determine the predictive factors of nontreatment.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study. Data were extracted from the 38 centers participating in the European Database for Multiple Sclerosis (EDMUS) on December 15, 2018, and patients with MS seen at least once during the study period (from June 15, 2016 to June 14, 2017) were included.

RESULTS

Of the 21,189 patients with MS (age 47.1 ± 13.1 years; Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score 3.4 ± 2.4), 6,631 (31.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 30.7-31.9) were not receiving any DMT. Although patients with a relapsing-remitting course (n = 11,693) were the most likely to receive DMT, 14.8% (95% CI 14.2-15.4) were still untreated (6.8% never treated). After multivariate analysis among patients with relapsing-remitting MS, the main factors explaining never having been treated were: not having ≥9 lesions on brain magnetic resonance imaging (odds ratio [OR] 0.52 [95% CI 0.44-0.61]) and lower EDSS score (OR 0.78 [95% CI 0.74-0.82]). Most patients with progressive MS (50.4% for secondary and 64.2% for primary progressive MS) did not receive any DMT during the study period, while 11.6% of patients with secondary and 34.0% of patients with primary progressive MS had never received any DMT.

CONCLUSION

A significant proportion of patients with MS did not receive any DMT, even though such treatments are reimbursed by the healthcare system for French patients. This result highlights the unmet need for current DMTs for a large subgroup of patients with MS.

Outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 in patients with neuromyelitis optica and associated disorders

BACKGROUND

Outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) or myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD), often treated with immunosuppressive therapies, are still unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study among all French expert centers for neuromyelitis optica and related disorders. Patients with NMOSD or MOGAD included in the study received a confirmed or highly suspected diagnosis of COVID-19 between 1 March 2020 and 30 June 2020. Main outcome was COVID-19 severity score assessed on a seven-point ordinal scale ranging from 1 (not hospitalized with no limitations on activities) to 7 (death).

RESULTS

Fifteen cases (mean [SD] age: 39.3 [14.3] years, 11 female) were included. Five patients (33.3%) were hospitalized, all receiving rituximab. A 24-year-old patient with positive aquaporine-4 antibody, with obesity as comorbidity, needed mechanical ventilation. Outpatients were receiving anti-CD20 (5), mycophenolate mofetil (3) or azathioprine (3). They were younger (mean [SD] age: 37.0 [13.4] years), with a longer disease duration (mean [SD]: 8.3 [6.3] years) and had a lower expanded disability severity score (EDSS) score (median [range] EDSS: 2.5 [0-4]) relative to patients requiring hospitalization (mean [SD] age: 44.0 [16.4] years, mean [SD] disease duration: 5.8 [5.5] years, median [range] EDSS: 4 [0-6.5]).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 outcome was overall favorable in this cohort. Larger international studies are needed to identify risk factors of severe COVID-19; however, we recommend personal protective measures to reduce risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in this immunocompromised population.