Isolating a culture of son preference among Armenian, Georgian and Azeri Parents in Soviet-era Russia

A basic hypothesis is that cultural evolutionary processes sustain differences between groups, these differences have evolutionary relevance and they would not otherwise occur in a system without cultural transmission. The empirical challenge is that groups vary for many reasons, and isolating the causal effects of culture often requires appropriate data and a quasi-experimental approach to analysis. We address this challenge with historical data from the final Soviet census of 1989, and our analysis is an example of the epidemiological approach to identifying cultural variation. We find that the fertility decisions of Armenian, Georgian and Azeri parents living in Soviet-era Russia were significantly more son-biased than those of other ethnic groups in Russia. This bias for sons took the form of differential stopping rules; families with sons stopped having children sooner than families without sons. This finding suggests that the increase in sex ratios at birth in the Caucasus, which began in the 1990s, reflects a cultural preference for sons that predates the end of the Soviet Union. This result also supports one of the key hypotheses of gene-culture coevolution, namely that cultural evolutionary processes can support group-level differences in selection pressures that would not otherwise occur in a system without culture.

Partnership Context of First Births in Russia: The Enduring Significance of Marriage

While cohabitation and non-marital childbearing have been increasing in Russia since 1990, the share of marital first births that are conceived prior to marriage has changed very little since the Soviet era. The prior findings on the stability of trends in premarital conceptions in Russia have been contradictory and inconclusive. This study aims to extend the existing empirical evidence on premarital conceptions in Russia and to contribute to the discussion on the persistence of marriage as the preferred partnership context for parenthood. We focus on births that occurred within the first two years of marriage, and compare the childbearing patterns of Russian women who married in different historical periods. For our investigation of fertility among marital cohorts who married during the Soviet era (1960–1991), we use individual-level data from the 1994 microcensus. For our examination of fertility among more recent marital cohorts (2000, 2011, and 2016), we draw on data from birth records in civil registers. We also use relevant complementary data sources. Our findings show that there has been a marked shift in the relationship between conception and marriage in Russia. Increasingly, conceptions have been occurring before marriage, and in the most recent marital cohorts, the level of premarital first conceptions has even surpassed the level of marital first conceptions. The average interval between conception and entry into marriage has also been lengthening. We describe this unique pattern of childbearing and discuss some potential explanations for the ongoing association between marriage and childbearing in Russia.

Long-term trends in blood pressure and hypertension in Russia: an analysis of data from 14 health surveys conducted in 1975-2017

Background

Hypertension is recognized as an important contributor to high cardiovascular mortality in Russia. A comprehensive analysis of data from Russian studies that measured blood pressure in population-based samples has not been previously undertaken. This study aims to identify trends and patterns in mean blood pressure and the prevalence of hypertension in Russia over the most recent 40 years.

Methods

We obtained anonymized individual records of blood pressure measurements from 14 surveys conducted in Russia in 1975–2017 relating to a total of 137,687 individuals. For comparative purposes we obtained equivalent data from 4 surveys in the USA and England for 23,864 individuals. A meta-regression on aggregated data adjusted for education was undertaken to estimate time trends in mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure, the prevalence of elevated blood pressure (> 140/90 mmHg), and hypertension (defined as elevated blood pressure and/or the use of blood pressure-lowering) medication. A meta-analysis of pooled individual-level data was used to assess male-female differences in blood pressure and hypertension.

Results

During the period 1975–2017 mean blood pressure, the prevalence of elevated blood pressure and hypertension remained stable among Russian men. Among Russian women, mean systolic blood pressure decreased at an annual rate of 0.25 mmHg (p < 0.1) at age 35–54 years and by 0.8 mmHg (p < 0.01) at ages 55 and over. The prevalence of elevated blood pressure also decreased by 0.8% per year (p < 0.01), but the prevalence of hypertension remained stable. Mean blood pressure and prevalence of hypertension were higher in Russia compared to the USA and England at all ages and for both sexes.

Conclusions

In contrast to the generally observed downward trend in elevated blood pressure in many other countries, levels in Russia have changed little over the past 40 years, although there are some positive trends among women. Improved strategies to bring down the high levels of mean blood pressure and hypertension in Russia compared to countries such as England and the USA are important to further reduce the high burden of CVD in Russia.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12320-4.

Time trends in smoking in Russia in the light of recent tobacco control measures: synthesis of evidence from multiple sources

BACKGROUND

The study aims at identifying long-term trends and patterns of current smoking by age, gender, and education in Russia, including the most recent period from 2008 during which tobacco control policies were implemented, and to estimate the impact on mortality of any reductions in prevalence. We present an in-depth analysis based on an unprecedentedly large array of survey data.

METHODS

We examined pooled micro-data on smoking from 17 rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study of 1996-2016, 11 other surveys conducted in Russia in 1975-2017, and two comparator surveys from England and the USA. Standardization by age and education, regression and meta-analysis were used to estimate trends in the prevalence of current smoking by gender, age, and educational patterns.

RESULTS

From the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s smoking prevalence among men was relatively stable at around 60%, after which time prevalence declined in every age and educational group. Among women, trends in smoking were more heterogeneous. Prevalence more than doubled above the age of 55 years from very low levels (< 5%). At younger ages, there were steep increases until the mid-2000s after which prevalence has declined. Trends differed by educational level, with women in the lowest educational category accounting for most of the long-term increase. We estimate that the decline in male smoking may have contributed 6.2% of the observed reduction in cardiovascular deaths among men in the period 2008-16.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of an effective tobacco control strategy in Russia starting in 2008 coincided with a decline in smoking prevalence among men from what had been stable, high levels over many decades regardless of age and education. Among women, the declines have been more uneven, with young women showing recent downturns, while the smoking prevalence in middle age has increased, particularly among those with minimal education. Among men, these positive changes will have made a small contribution to the reduction in mortality seen in Russia since 2005.