A Simple Score for Predicting Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source in a Tunisian Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The annualized recurrent stroke rate in patients with Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) under antiplatelet therapy is around 4.5%. Only a fraction of these patients will develop atrial fibrillation (FA), to which a stroke can be attributed retrospectively. The challenge is to identify patients at risk of occult AF during follow-up.

OBJECTIVE

This work aims to determine clinical factors and electrocardiographic and ultrasound parameters that can predict occult AF in patients with ESUS and build a simple predictive score applicable worldwide.

METHODS

This is a single-center, registry-based retrospective study conducted at the stroke unit of Sahloul University Hospital, Sousse, Tunisia, between January 2016 and December 2020. Consecutive patients meeting ESUS criteria were monitored for a minimum of one year, with a standardized follow-up consisting of outpatient visits, including ECG every three months and a new 24-hour Holter monitoring in case of palpitations. We performed multivariate stepwise regression to identify predictors of new paroxysmal AF among initial clinical, electrocardiographic (ECG and 24-hour Holter monitoring) and echocardiographic parameters. The coefficient of each independent covariate of the fitted multivariable model was used to generate an integerbased point-scoring system.

RESULTS

Three hundred patients met the criteria for ESUS. Among them, 42 (14%) patients showed at least one episode of paroxysmal AF during a median follow-up of two years. In univariate analysis, age, gender, coronary artery disease, history of ischemic stroke, higher NIHSS at admission and lower NIHSS at discharge, abnormal P-wave axis, prolonged P-wave duration, premature atrial contractions (PAC) frequency of more than 500/24 hours, and left atrial (LA) mean area of more than 20 cm2 were associated with the risk of occurrence of paroxysmal AF. We proposed an AF predictive score based on (1.771 x NIHSS score at admission) + (10.015 x P-wave dispersion; coded 1 if yes and 0 if no) + (9.841x PAC class; coded 1 if ≥500 and 0 if no) + (9.828x LA class surface; coded 1 if ≥20 and 0 if no) + (0.548xNIHSS score at discharge) + 0.004. A score of ≥33 had a sensitivity of 76% and a specificity of 93%.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of patients with ESUS, NIHSS at both admission and discharge, Pwave dispersion, PAC≥500/24h on a 24-hour Holter monitoring, and LA surface area≥20 cm2 provide a simple AF predictive score with very reasonable sensitivity and specificity and is applicable almost worldwide. An external validation of this score is ongoing.

Early Onset and Severe Progression of Neuro-ophthalmological Manifestations in a Case with Parry–Romberg Syndrome

Parry–Romberg syndrome is a rare disorder characterized by unilateral facial atrophy affecting the skin, subcutaneous tissue, and muscles, and sometimes extending to the osteocartilaginous structures. Ophthalmological and neurological involvements are relatively rare. We present a case of an early onset of left hemifacial atrophy, a progressive severe left ocular impairment, and the presence of a neurological disorder in the left hemisphere of the brain. The neuro-ophthalmological manifestations on the left side include enophthalmos, mild pseudoptosis, moderate asymmetry of the eyebrows, diffuse chorioretinal atrophy, reduced visual acuity, reduced central retinal thickness (162 µm) with the interruption of the ellipsoid zone, and the alteration of the outer nuclear layer, with associated reduced responses in photopic and scotopic amplitudes. The patient reported high intensity left brain white matter and a brief clinical focal seizure. This case report adds to the repertoire spectrum of this rare syndrome. The presentation calls for a multidisciplinary care for patients like our case.