The cost of (Un)regulation: Shrinking Earth's orbits and the need for sustainable space governance

Outer space is infinite, useable planetary orbits are not. This makes the Earth's orbit a unique case of an Area Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ) complex to address, difficult to use in a sustainable and equitable way and almost intractable to regulate at an international level. As of 2023, we remain far from attaining a sustainable orbital environment, and future uses of the Earth's orbits for new satellites constellations appear now increasingly at risk. Adopting a probability-based empirical model to project the growth trajectory of objects in space, this article argues that the sector will cross a 'critical density' threshold within the upcoming years unless strong remedial actions to clear up the orbits are implemented and estimates the potential costs of active debris removal measures. Our findings suggest that orbital sustainability is unlikely to come from technology alone, no matter how advanced or ground-breaking. A long-term solution will necessarily require a radical rewriting of the outdated, often conflicting international regulatory framework, which contributed to creating this debris crisis in the first place, shrinking the Earth's orbit to (almost) the point of no return.

The Societal and Indirect Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the United Kingdom

Seasonal influenza is a significant public-health issue. In the UK, the influenza season is associated with an increased demand for and pressure on the NHS. The direct health and economic impacts of seasonal influenza have received much attention. However, less attention has been given to its broader societal burden, including its indirect economic impact. We first conducted a rapid evidence assessment of the literature to understand the societal burden of seasonal influenza in the UK. Secondly, we conducted analyses of publicly available, aggregated data from NHS England and NHS Digital to better understand the impact of seasonal influenza on the provision of NHS services both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We also conducted a geographically representative survey of 1,000 working-age adults across the UK, who reported having influenza or caring for a dependent with influenza during at least one of the past four influenza seasons to understand impacts related to absenteeism and presenteeism in the workplace, lost wages and out-of-pocket costs. Fourthly, we conducted interviews with 20 key stakeholders within the NHS from primary care and secondary care across the four UK nations. Lastly, we used an epidemiologic-economic framework to estimate the number of influenza cases and then applied a macro-economic computable general equilibrium model to estimate the indirect economic costs associated with lost economic productivity among working-age adults who become ill with influenza.

Partially different? The importance of general equilibrium in health economic evaluations: An application to nocturia

Both the human capital approach and the friction cost approach are frequently used to quantify the productivity costs associated with illness, disability or death in health economic evaluations. In this paper we argue that these approaches have one major, but common shortcoming: they only capture partial equilibrium (PE) effects and therefore underestimate the true potential productivity costs associated with health conditions. They neglect the sizable, indirect, ripple effects in the economy captured by general equilibrium (GE) models. To demonstrate our point, we compare a traditional PE with a GE approach for the application to nocturia, a condition characterized by the need to frequently wake up at night to urinate. Nocturia is associated with substantial impairment of daytime functioning and work productivity. We employ large-scale United Kingdom (UK) employer-employee survey data to estimate the prevalence and productivity loss. These estimates are then used as shared inputs to drive both approaches. We find that the traditional PE approach underestimates the annual productivity cost of clinically relevant nocturia by around 16%. We propose a generalized GE/PE multiplier to approximate the GE effect for other health conditions. Our findings stress the importance of accounting for sizable GE effects when conducting health economic evaluations.

COVID-19 and the Cost of Vaccine Nationalism

Experience shows that, in response to pandemics, national governments tend to follow their own interests instead of pursuing a more globally coordinated approach. This nationalistic behaviour could have negative consequences on how well the COVID-19 global pandemic is managed and contained. A situation in which countries push to get first access to a supply of vaccines, potentially hoarding key components for vaccine production, has been commonly referred to as "vaccine nationalism." This article examines how the management of the COVID-19 crisis may be affected by vaccine nationalism and what the associated economic cost would be of inequitable access to vaccines across countries.

The potential socio-economic impact of telemedicine in Canada

Telemedicine has been available in Canada for a while but its uptake before the COVID-19 pandemic has been slow. The pandemic has since changed how people in Canada access healthcare by hastening digital transformation in the sector. Pre-pandemic, Canada was behind its international peers in its use of telemedicine. Now, many patient consultations, both primary and specialist, are conducted virtually. RAND Europe researchers examined the potential impact in Canada of continued, long-term use of telemedicine, which can include the use of "smart" devices to conduct medical tests, the digital storage and sharing of medical records, and real-time tele-consultations between healthcare providers and patients. They looked at the quality, access and cost of telemedicine, the barriers that have led to its relatively slow adoption, and what the economic effect would be of an increase in uptake. The study found that, alongside the benefits from tools such as telemonitoring and digital health records, widespread use of teleconsultations could lead to significant benefits for Canadian patients, the Canadian economy, and wider Canadian society. The findings directly contribute to the evidence base in telemedicine and virtual healthcare more generally.

Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020-2050)

Objectives

We assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.

Methods

This study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time.

Results

Doing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%–0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314–446 billion per year and US$6.0–8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.

Conclusions

Increasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.

Assessing the burden of nocturia in the workplace: the associations between nocturnal voiding, subjective well-being, work engagement and productivity

Aims: Nocturia (getting up at night to urinate, where each urination being followed by sleep or intention to sleep) is a bothersome symptom with potentially negative consequences for individual health and daytime functioning. This study assessed the burden of nocturia in the workplace by investigating associations between nocturia and subjective well-being (SWB), work engagement and productivity.Methods: Using large-scale international workplace survey data, the associations between nocturia, SWB, work engagement (Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, UWES-9) and productivity (Work Productivity and Activity Impairment, WPAI) were assessed. Bivariate and multivariate regression analysis was used with adjustment for a large set of confounding factors, including sleep duration and sleep quality.Results: Across a study sample of 92,129 observations, aged 18-70, an average of 10% of the survey population reported ≥2 nocturnal voids (generally considered clinically significant nocturia), with prevalence of nocturia increasing with age. Individuals with nocturia reported a 35.7% (p < .001) higher relative sleep disturbance score and were 10.5 percentage points (pp) (p < .001) more likely to report short sleep. Adjusted for covariates, nocturia was associated with a 3.5% (p < .001) lower relative SWB score and a 2% (p < .001) lower relative UWES-9 work engagement score. Nocturia was associated with a 3.9 pp (p < .001) higher work impairment due to absenteeism and presenteeism (WPAI). Adjusting additionally for sleep disturbance and sleep duration reduced the magnitude of the estimated effects, suggesting a key role for poor sleep in explaining the relationship between nocturia and the outcomes (SWB, UWES-9, WPAI) assessed.Conclusions: A key contribution of this study is the assessment of the association between nocturia and a range of work performance outcomes in a sizeable study using validated instruments to measure work engagement and productivity. The study highlights the importance of taking sleep into account when assessing the relationship between nocturia and associated outcomes.

Exploring the Use of a General Equilibrium Method to Assess the Value of a Malaria Vaccine: An Application to Ghana

Background. Malaria is an important health and economic burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Conventional economic evaluations typically consider only direct costs to the health care system and government budgets. This paper quantifies the potential impact of malaria vaccination on the wider economy, using Ghana as an example. Methods. We used a computable general equilibrium model of the Ghanaian economy to estimate the macroeconomic impact of malaria vaccination in children under the age of 5, with a vaccine efficacy of 50% against clinical malaria and 20% against malaria mortality. The model considered changes in demography and labor productivity, and projected gross domestic product (GDP) over a time frame of 30 years. Vaccine coverage ranging from 20% to 100% was compared with a baseline with no vaccination. Results. Malaria vaccination with 100% coverage was projected to increase the GDP of Ghana over 30 years by US$6.93 billion (in 2015 prices) above the baseline without vaccination, equivalent to an increase in annual GDP growth of 0.5%. Projected GDP per capita would increase in the first year due to immediate reductions in time lost from work by adults caring for children with malaria, then decrease for several years as reductions in child mortality increase the number of dependent children, then show a sustained increase after Year 11 due to long-term productivity improvements in adults resulting from fewer malaria episodes in childhood. Conclusion. Investing in improving childhood health by vaccinating against malaria could result in substantial long-term macroeconomic benefits when these children enter the workforce as adults. These macroeconomic benefits are not captured by conventional economic evaluations and constitute an important potential benefit of vaccination.