COVID-19 Stroke Apical Lung Examination Study 2: a national prospective CTA biomarker study of the lung apices, in patients presenting with suspected acute stroke (COVID SALES 2)

BACKGROUND

Apical ground-glass opacification (GGO) identified on CT angiography (CTA) performed for suspected acute stroke was developed in 2020 as a coronavirus-disease-2019 (COVID-19) diagnostic and prognostic biomarker in a retrospective study during the first wave of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

To prospectively validate whether GGO on CTA performed for suspected acute stroke is a reliable COVID-19 diagnostic and prognostic biomarker and whether it is reliable for COVID-19 vaccinated patients.

METHODS

In this prospective, pragmatic, national, multi-center validation study performed at 13 sites, we captured study data consecutively in patients undergoing CTA for suspected acute stroke from January-March 2021. Demographic and clinical features associated with stroke and COVID-19 were incorporated. The primary outcome was the likelihood of reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction swab-test-confirmed COVID-19 using the GGO biomarker. Secondary outcomes investigated were functional status at discharge and survival analyses at 30 and 90 days. Univariate and multivariable statistical analyses were employed.

RESULTS

CTAs from 1,111 patients were analyzed, with apical GGO identified in 8.5 % during a period of high COVID-19 prevalence. GGO showed good inter-rater reliability (Fleiss κ = 0.77); and high COVID-19 specificity (93.7 %, 91.8-95.2) and negative predictive value (NPV; 97.8 %, 96.5-98.6). In subgroup analysis of vaccinated patients, GGO remained a good diagnostic biomarker (specificity 93.1 %, 89.8-95.5; NPV 99.7 %, 98.3-100.0). Patients with COVID-19 were more likely to have higher stroke score (NIHSS (mean +/- SD) 6.9 +/- 6.9, COVID-19 negative, 9.7 +/- 9.0, COVID-19 positive; p = 0.01), carotid occlusions (6.2 % negative, 14.9 % positive; p = 0.02), and larger infarcts on presentation CT (ASPECTS 9.4 +/- 1.5, COVID-19 negative, 8.6 +/- 2.4, COVID-19 positive; p = 0.00). After multivariable logistic regression, GGO (odds ratio 15.7, 6.2-40.1), myalgia (8.9, 2.1-38.2) and higher core body temperature (1.9, 1.1-3.2) were independent COVID-19 predictors. GGO was associated with worse functional outcome on discharge and worse survival after univariate analysis. However, after adjustment for factors including stroke severity, GGO was not independently predictive of functional outcome or mortality.

CONCLUSION

Apical GGO on CTA performed for patients with suspected acute stroke is a reliable diagnostic biomarker for COVID-19, which in combination with clinical features may be useful in COVID-19 triage.

PICH deficiency limits the progression of MYC-induced B-cell lymphoma

Plk1-interacting checkpoint helicase (PICH) is a DNA translocase involved in resolving ultrafine anaphase DNA bridges and, therefore, is important to safeguard chromosome segregation and stability. PICH is overexpressed in various human cancers, particularly in lymphomas such as Burkitt lymphoma, which is caused by MYC translocations. To investigate the relevance of PICH in cancer development and progression, we have combined novel PICH-deficient mouse models with the Eμ-Myc transgenic mouse model, which recapitulates B-cell lymphoma development. We have observed that PICH deficiency delays the onset of MYC-induced lymphomas in Pich heterozygous females. Moreover, using a Pich conditional knockout mouse model, we have found that Pich deletion in adult mice improves the survival of Eμ-Myc transgenic mice. Notably, we show that Pich deletion in healthy adult mice is well tolerated, supporting PICH as a suitable target for anticancer therapies. Finally, we have corroborated these findings in two human Burkitt lymphoma cell lines and we have found that the death of cancer cells was accompanied by chromosomal instability. Based on these findings, we propose PICH as a potential therapeutic target for Burkitt lymphoma and for other cancers where PICH is overexpressed.

Feasibility of an artificial intelligence phone call for postoperative care following cataract surgery in a diverse population: two phase prospective study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Artificial intelligence (AI) development has led to improvements in many areas of medicine. Canada has workforce pressures in delivering cataract care. A potential solution is using AI technology that can automate care delivery, increase effectiveness and decrease burdens placed on patients and the healthcare system. This study assesses the use of 'Dora', an example of an AI assistant that is able to deliver a regulated autonomous, voice-based, natural-language consultation with patients over the telephone. Dora is used in routine practice in the UK, but this study seeks to assess the safety, usability, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of using the technology in Canada.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a two-phase prospective single-centred trial. An expected 250 patients will be recruited for each phase of the study. For Phase I of the study, Dora will phone patients at postoperative week 1 and for Phase II of the study, Dora will phone patients within 24hours of their cataract surgery and again at postoperative week 1. We will evaluate the agreement between Dora and a supervising clinician regarding the need for further review based on the patients' symptoms. A random sample of patients will undergo the System Usability Scale followed by an extended semi-structured interview. The primary outcome of agreement between Dora and the supervisor will be assessed using the kappa statistic. Qualitative data from the interviews will further gauge patient opinions about Dora's usability, appropriateness and level of satisfaction.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research Ethics Board William Osler Health System (ID: 22-0044) has approved this study and will be conducted by guidelines of Declaration of Helsinki. Master-linking sheet will contain the patient chart identification (ID), full name, date of birth and study ID. Results will be shared through peer-reviewed journals and presentations at conferences.

Investigating the Impact of Automation on the Health Care Workforce Through Autonomous Telemedicine in the Cataract Pathway: Protocol for a Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

While digital health innovations are increasingly being adopted by health care organizations, implementation is often carried out without considering the impacts on frontline staff who will be using the technology and who will be affected by its introduction. The enthusiasm surrounding the use of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled digital solutions in health care is tempered by uncertainty around how it will change the working lives and practices of health care professionals. Digital enablement can be viewed as facilitating enhanced effectiveness and efficiency by improving services and automating cognitive labor, yet the implementation of such AI technology comes with challenges related to changes in work practices brought by automation. This research explores staff experiences before and after care pathway automation with an autonomous clinical conversational assistant, Dora (Ufonia Ltd), that is able to automate routine clinical conversations.

OBJECTIVE

The primary objective is to examine the impact of AI-enabled automation on clinicians, allied health professionals, and administrators who provide or facilitate health care to patients in high-volume, low-complexity care pathways. In the process of transforming care pathways through automation of routine tasks, staff will increasingly "work at the top of their license." The impact of this fundamental change on the professional identity, well-being, and work practices of the individual is poorly understood at present.

METHODS

We will adopt a multiple case study approach, combining qualitative and quantitative data collection methods, over 2 distinct phases, namely phase A (preimplementation) and phase B (postimplementation).

RESULTS

The analysis is expected to reveal the interrelationship between Dora and those affected by its introduction. This will reveal how tasks and responsibilities have changed or shifted, current tensions and contradictions, ways of working, and challenges, benefits, and opportunities as perceived by those on the frontlines of the health care system. The findings will enable a better understanding of the resistance or susceptibility of different stakeholders within the health care workforce and encourage managerial awareness of differing needs, demands, and uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of AI in the health care sector, as well as the body of research on this topic, remain in their infancy. The project's key contribution will be to understand the impact of AI-enabled automation on the health care workforce and their work practices.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/49374.

User-acceptability of an automated telephone call for post-operative follow-up after uncomplicated cataract surgery

BACKGROUND

Innovative technology is recommended to address the current capacity challenges facing the NHS. This study evaluates the patient acceptability of automated telephone follow-up after routine cataract surgery using Dora (Ufonia Limited, Oxford, United Kingdom), which to our knowledge is the first AI-powered clinical assistant to be used in the NHS. Dora has a natural-language, phone conversation with patients about their symptoms after cataract surgery.

METHODS

This is a prospective mixed-methods cohort study that was conducted at Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust. All patients who were followed up using Dora were asked to give a Net Promoter Score (NPS), and 24 patients were randomly selected to complete the validated Telephone Usability Questionnaire (TUQ) as well as extended semi-structured interviews that underwent thematic analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 170 autonomous calls were completed. The median NPS score was 9 out of 10. The TUQ (scored out of 5) showed high rates of acceptability, with an overall mean score of 4.0. Simplicity, time saving, and ease of use scored the highest with a median of 5, whilst 'speaking to Dora feels the same as speaking to a clinician' scored a median of 3. The main themes extracted from the qualitative data were 'I can see why you're doing it', 'It went quite well actually', 'I just trust human beings I suppose'.

CONCLUSION

We found high levels of patient acceptability when using Dora across three acceptability measures. Dora provides a potential solution to reduce pressure on hospital capacity whilst also providing a convenient service for patients.

A Prospective Audit Comparing Optos Widefield Imaging to Fundus Examination for Von Hippel-Lindau Retinal Screening

Background Von Hippel-Lindau (VHL) disease is an autosomal dominant multisystem disorder caused by germline mutations at chromosome 3p25-26 in the VHLtumour suppressor gene. Retinal manifestations include capillary haemangiomas that develop in up to 80% of gene carriers. Lifelong retinal surveillance involves yearly assessment usually by fundoscopy and often as part of a VHL multidisciplinary clinic. Optos ultra-widefield retinal imaging is now becoming more widely used in virtual retinal screening clinics. We aimed to assess discrepancies in the pickup rate of angioma and angiomatous-associated disease between slit-lamp fundoscopy and Optos ultra-widefield imaging. Methodology A total of 49 patients had both Optos ultra-widefield retinal imaging and slit-lamp fundoscopy over 16 months in VHL retinal surveillance clinics at the John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK. Optos images were analysed for image quality and presence of angioma(s) by a Consultant Ophthalmologist who was masked to the fundoscopy findings. The pickup rate was compared between slit-lamp fundoscopy and Optos imaging. Results In total, data on 94 eyes were collected. Of the total Optos retinal images, 12.8% were positive for angiomas compared to 11.7% from the slit-lamp examination. There was a discrepancy of 1.1% (one value) where the Optos image analysis suggested a possible angioma, which was not identified on slit-lamp examination. Optos imaging identified all angiomas in this cohort. Conclusions Optos imaging was non-inferior to slit-lamp examination in this sample of 94 eyes. In the current COVID-19 climate, reducing clinician-patient interaction is important. This research supports providing retinal imaging as an acceptable alternative to the yearly slit-lamp fundus examination.

Short-term risk prediction after major lower limb amputation: PERCEIVE study

BACKGROUND

The accuracy with which healthcare professionals (HCPs) and risk prediction tools predict outcomes after major lower limb amputation (MLLA) is uncertain. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of predicting short-term (30 days after MLLA) mortality, morbidity, and revisional surgery.

METHODS

The PERCEIVE (PrEdiction of Risk and Communication of outcomE following major lower limb amputation: a collaboratIVE) study was launched on 1 October 2020. It was an international multicentre study, including adults undergoing MLLA for complications of peripheral arterial disease and/or diabetes. Preoperative predictions of 30-day mortality, morbidity, and MLLA revision by surgeons and anaesthetists were recorded. Probabilities from relevant risk prediction tools were calculated. Evaluation of accuracy included measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance.

RESULTS

Some 537 patients were included. HCPs had acceptable discrimination in predicting mortality (931 predictions; C-statistic 0.758) and MLLA revision (565 predictions; C-statistic 0.756), but were poor at predicting morbidity (980 predictions; C-statistic 0.616). They overpredicted the risk of all outcomes. All except three risk prediction tools had worse discrimination than HCPs for predicting mortality (C-statistics 0.789, 0.774, and 0.773); two of these significantly overestimated the risk compared with HCPs. SORT version 2 (the only tool incorporating HCP predictions) demonstrated better calibration and overall performance (Brier score 0.082) than HCPs. Tools predicting morbidity and MLLA revision had poor discrimination (C-statistics 0.520 and 0.679).

CONCLUSION

Clinicians predicted mortality and MLLA revision well, but predicted morbidity poorly. They overestimated the risk of mortality, morbidity, and MLLA revision. Most short-term risk prediction tools had poorer discrimination or calibration than HCPs. The best method of predicting mortality was a statistical tool that incorporated HCP estimation.

Pan-Asian adapted ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of patients with prostate cancer

The most recent version of the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Clinical Practice Guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of prostate cancer was published in 2020. It was therefore decided, by both the ESMO and the Singapore Society of Oncology (SSO), to convene a special, virtual guidelines meeting in November 2021 to adapt the ESMO 2020 guidelines to take into account the differences associated with the treatment of prostate cancer in Asia. These guidelines represent the consensus opinions reached by experts in the treatment of patients with prostate cancer representing the oncological societies of China (CSCO), India (ISMPO), Japan (JSMO), Korea (KSMO), Malaysia (MOS), Singapore (SSO) and Taiwan (TOS). The voting was based on scientific evidence and was independent of the current treatment practices and drug access restrictions in the different Asian countries. The latter were discussed when appropriate. The aim is to provide guidance for the optimisation and harmonisation of the management of patients with prostate cancer across the different regions of Asia.

Vessel wall magnetic resonance and arterial spin labelling imaging in the management of presumed inflammatory intracranial arterial vasculopathy

Optimal criteria for diagnosing and monitoring response to treatment for infectious and inflammatory medium–large vessel intracranial vasculitis presenting with stroke are lacking. We integrated intracranial vessel wall MRI with arterial spin labelling into our routine clinical stroke pathway to detect presumed inflammatory intracranial arterial vasculopathy, and monitor disease activity, in patients with clinical stroke syndromes. We used predefined standardized radiological criteria to define vessel wall enhancement, and all imaging findings were rated blinded to clinical details. Between 2017 and 2018, stroke or transient ischaemic attack patients were first screened in our vascular radiology meeting and followed up in a dedicated specialist stroke clinic if a diagnosis of medium–large inflammatory intracranial arterial vasculopathy was radiologically confirmed. Treatment was determined and monitored by a multi-disciplinary team. In this case series, 11 patients were managed in this period from the cohort of young stroke presenters (<55 years). The median age was 36 years (interquartile range: 33,50), of which 8 of 11 (73%) were female. Two of 11 (18%) had herpes virus infection confirmed by viral nucleic acid in the cerebrospinal fluid. We showed improvement in cerebral perfusion at 1 year using an arterial spin labelling sequence in patients taking immunosuppressive therapy for >4 weeks compared with those not receiving therapy [6 (100%) versus 2 (40%) P = 0.026]. Our findings demonstrate the potential utility of vessel wall magnetic resonance with arterial spin labelling imaging in detecting and monitoring medium–large inflammatory intracranial arterial vasculopathy activity for patients presenting with stroke symptoms, limiting the need to progress to brain biopsy. Further systematic studies in unselected populations of stroke patients are needed to confirm our findings and establish the prevalence of medium–large artery wall inflammation.

Patient and clinician perspectives of ophthalmology emergency attendances during the COVID 19 pandemic

Introduction

To explore patient and clinician perspectives on acute ophthalmology presentations during the COVID pandemic. To ascertain whether the pandemic had differentially impacted access to care based on patient demographics and postcodes.

Methods

A single-centre, cross-sectional prospective study in a busy metropolitan eye casualty between April-June 2020 recording patient demographics, distance travelled to access healthcare, diagnosis and outcome compared to the equivalent period in 2019. A further two-part survey was conducted to explore patient and clinician's perceptions around delays in attendances, views on remote consultation and severity of the condition.

Results

There was a 68% decrease in April 2020 compared to previous year's ED attendance. The diagnosis tended towards more visually significant pathology. From 2019 to 2020, there was a significant decrease in average distance travelled to the eye emergency department (eye ED). working-age adults (18-59) and white patients travelling from very far pre-pandemic contributed most to this change. 513 Patient responses (12%) out of 4433 attendances during the study period were received, 89% (456/513) of the completed surveys also had matching clinician surveys. 29% (149/513) patients felt COVID-19 stopped them from attending earlier. Clinicians thought a video consultation would have been suitable for 40% (182/456) of patients compared to only 13% (58/456) of patients preferring a video consultation.

Discussion

Although our findings were limited by low response rates, COVID-19 may have caused a delay in presentation for emergency eye care. Demographic changes and attitudes towards video consultations have implications for planning of emergency eye care in future pandemics.

Antisense Peptide Nucleic Acid-Diaminobutanoic Acid Dendron Conjugates with SbmA-Independent Antimicrobial Activity against Gram-Negative Bacteria

Precision antisense antibacterial agents may be developed into novel antibiotics in the fight against multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. In this study, a series of diaminobutanoic acid (DAB) dendrons are presented as novel carriers for the delivery of antisense antibacterial peptide nucleic acids (PNAs). The dendron-PNA conjugates targeting the essential acpP gene exhibit specific antisense antimicrobial bactericidal activity against Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae at one-digit micromolar concentrations, while showing low toxicity to human cells. One compound selected from a structure-activity relationship series showed high stability in mouse and human serum (t_1/2 ≫ 24 h) as well as in vivo activity against a multidrug-resistant, extended spectrum beta-lactamase-producing E. coli in a murine peritonitis model. The compound was also well tolerated in mice upon i.v. administration up to a dose of 20 mg/kg, and in vivo fluorescence imaging indicated clearance via renal excretion with slight accumulation in the kidneys and liver. Thus, DAB-based dendrons constitute a promising new chemistry platform for development of effective delivery agents for antibacterial drugs with possible in vivo use.

321 Surgery Induction Guidebook – an Aid to a Successful Transition

Aim

There is a 4–12% increase in mortality following the August change over in the National Health Service (NHS) UK. A well-structured induction programme is mandatory to improve both the competency and confidence of new junior doctors. This activity was designed to evaluate and improve the induction process in Pilgrim Hospital by introducing an induction guidebook. It aimed to provide a sustainable and reliable source of information to junior doctors.

Method

An initial survey in the department assessed the needs and identified the information required for the guidebook. An induction guidebook was designed and circulated during the changeover. A feedback survey was conducted after the six months of the initial Induction guidebook release, to know the usefulness of components of the induction guidebook and identify any gaps to improve the guidebook.

Results

A total of 15 participants completed the feedback survey. 47% (7) found the induction guidebook beneficial and 53.3 % (8) found it ‘slightly beneficial'. Similarly, only 1 participant (6.7%) rated the guidebook to be “of minor importance”, while 53% (8) rating it “very important” part of induction. The feedback for the contents of the book was also encouraging with suggestions.

Conclusions

The guidebook proved to be a valuable source in helping new doctors during times of transition to adjust to the local system and improve the induction process. It provided information about local guidelines, job overview, team structure, IT, useful contacts, and other relevant information. We recommend the departmental guidebook as a vital part of local departmental induction during the changeover.

Vascular inflammation in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea and coronary artery disease shown on coronary computed tomography angiography attenuation

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Introduction

Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is associated with increased plaque burden in coronary artery disease (CAD), but the role of vascular inflammation in this relationship is unclear. Coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) enables surrogate assessment of systemic inflammation via subcutaneous adipose tissue attenuation (ScAT-a), and of coronary inflammation via epicardial adipose tissue volume and attenuation (EAT-v and EAT-a) and pericoronary adipose tissue attenuation (PCAT-a).

Purpose

To investigate whether vascular inflammation is increased in patients with severe OSA and high plaque burden.

Methods

Patients with clinically indicated polysomnography and coronary CTA were included. Severe OSA was classified as apnoea/hypopnoea index (AHI) &gt;30. High plaque burden was defined as a CT-Leaman score (CT-LeSc) &gt;8.3. Patients with both severe OSA and high plaque burden were defined as ‘Group 1’, all other patients were classified as ‘Group 2’. ScAT-a, EAT-a, EAT-v and PCAT-a were assessed on semi-automated software.

Results

A total of 91 patients were studied (59.3 ± 11.1 years). Severe OSA was associated with high plaque burden (p = 0.02). AHI correlated with CT-LeSc (r = 0.24, p = 0.023). Group 1 had lower EAT-a and PCAT-a compared to Group 2 (EAT-a: -87.6 vs. -84.0 HU, p = 0.01; PCAT-a: -90.4 vs. -83.4 HU, p &lt; 0.01). However, among patients without high plaque burden, EAT-a was increased in patients with severe OSA versus mild-moderate OSA (-80.3 vs. -84.0 HU, p = 0.020). On multivariable analysis, EAT-a independently associated with severe OSA and high plaque burden (p &lt; 0.02), and PCAT-a associated with severe OSA and high plaque burden, and hypertension (all p &lt; 0.01).

Conclusions

EAT attenuation is decreased in patients with severe OSA and high plaque burden but increased in patients with severe OSA and low plaque burden. These divergent results suggest coronary inflammation may be increased in OSA independent of CAD, but larger studies are required to validate these findings.

Pan-Asian adapted ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of patients with renal cell carcinoma

The most recent version of the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Clinical Practice Guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of renal cell carcinoma was published in 2019 with an update planned for 2021. It was therefore decided by both the ESMO and the Singapore Society of Oncology (SSO) to convene a special, virtual guidelines meeting in May 2021 to adapt the ESMO 2019 guidelines to take into account the ethnic differences associated with the treatment of renal cell carcinomas in Asian patients. These guidelines represent the consensus opinions reached by experts in the treatment of patients with renal cell carcinoma representing the oncological societies of China (CSCO), India (ISMPO), Japan (JSMO), Korea (KSMO), Malaysia (MOS), Singapore (SSO) and Taiwan (TOS). The voting was based on scientific evidence and was independent of the current treatment practices and drug access restrictions in the different Asian countries. The latter were discussed when appropriate.

Fundus Autofluorescence Imaging in Macular Telangiectasia Type 2: MacTel Study Report Number 9

PURPOSE

To investigate the role of fundus autofluorescence (FAF) imaging in the diagnosis of macular telangiectasia type 2 (MacTel) and to describe disease-associated FAF patterns and their origin.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional multicenter study METHODS: FAF images were collected from the multicenter MacTel Natural History Observation and Registry Study. In a first qualitative approach, common FAF phenotypes were defined and correlated with multimodal imaging. We then evaluated how many eyes showed FAF changes, and temporal vs nasal asymmetry of FAF changes was graded. Finally, 100 eyes of MacTel patients and 100 control eyes (50 normal eyes and 50 eyes with other macular diseases) were combined and 2 masked graders assessed the presence of MacTel based on FAF images alone.

RESULTS

The study included 807 eyes of 420 patients (33 eyes were excluded owing to poor image quality). Loss of macular pigment, cystoid spaces, pigment plaques, neovascular membranes, and ectatic vascular changes commonly caused characteristic changes on FAF images. All MacTel patients had macular FAF changes in at least 1 eye. In 95% of eyes, these changes were more pronounced temporally than nasally. Common FAF patterns were increased (60%) and mixed/decreased FAF (38%) and/or visibility of vascular changes such as blunted vessels or ectatic capillaries (79%). Based on those features, high diagnostic performance was achieved for detection of the disease based on FAF alone (Youden index up to 0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

The study demonstrates that MacTel is consistently associated with disease-specific changes on FAF imaging. Those changes are typically more pronounced in the temporal parafovea.

Safety and Acceptability of a Natural Language Artificial Intelligence Assistant to Deliver Clinical Follow-up to Cataract Surgery Patients: Proposal

Background

Due to an aging population, the demand for many services is exceeding the capacity of the clinical workforce. As a result, staff are facing a crisis of burnout from being pressured to deliver high-volume workloads, driving increasing costs for providers. Artificial intelligence (AI), in the form of conversational agents, presents a possible opportunity to enable efficiency in the delivery of care.

Objective

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness, usability, and acceptability of Dora agent: Ufonia’s autonomous voice conversational agent, an AI-enabled autonomous telemedicine call for the detection of postoperative cataract surgery patients who require further assessment. The objectives of this study are to establish Dora’s efficacy in comparison with an expert clinician, determine baseline sensitivity and specificity for the detection of true complications, evaluate patient acceptability, collect evidence for cost-effectiveness, and capture data to support further development and evaluation.

Methods

Using an implementation science construct, the interdisciplinary study will be a mixed methods phase 1 pilot establishing interobserver reliability of the system, usability, and acceptability. This will be done using the following scales and frameworks: the system usability scale; assessment of Health Information Technology Interventions in Evidence-Based Medicine Evaluation Framework; the telehealth usability questionnaire; and the Non-Adoption, Abandonment, and Challenges to the Scale-up, Spread and Suitability framework.

Results

The evaluation is expected to show that conversational technology can be used to conduct an accurate assessment and that it is acceptable to different populations with different backgrounds. In addition, the results will demonstrate how successfully the system can be delivered in organizations with different clinical pathways and how it can be integrated with their existing platforms.

Conclusions

The project’s key contributions will be evidence of the effectiveness of AI voice conversational agents and their associated usability and acceptability.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/27227

Insights From Survival Analyses During 12 Years of Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Therapy for Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Importance

Although multiple imputation models for missing data and the use of mixed-effects models generally provide better outcome estimates than using only observed data or last observation carried forward in clinical trials, such approaches usually cannot be applied to visual outcomes from retrospective analyses of clinical practice settings, also called real-world outcomes.

Objective

To explore the potential usefulness of survival analysis techniques for retrospective clinical practice visual outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study covered a 12-year observation period at a tertiary eye center. Of 10 744 eyes with neovascular age-related macular degeneration receiving anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy between October 28, 2008, and February 1, 2020, 7802 eyes met study criteria (treatment-naive, first-treated eyes starting anti-VEGF therapy). Eyes were excluded from the analysis if they received photodynamic therapy or macular laser, any previous anti-VEGF therapy, treatment with anti-VEGF agents other than ranibizumab or aflibercept, or had an unknown date or visual acuity (VA) value at first injection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to consider VA reaching an Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letter score of 70 (Snellen equivalent, 20/40) or better, duration of VA sustained at or better than 70 (20/40), and VA declining to 35 (20/200) or worse.

Results

A total of 7802 patients (mean [SD] age, 78.7 [8.8] years; 4776 women [61.2%]; and 4785 White [61.3%]) were included in the study. The median time to attaining a VA letter score greater than or equal to 70 (20/40) was 2.0 years (95% CI, 1.87-2.32) after the first anti-VEGF injection. Predictive features were baseline VA (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43 per 5 ETDRS letter score or 1 line; 95% CI, 1.40-1.46), baseline age (HR, 0.88 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90), and injection number (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.10-1.15). Of the 4439 of 7802 patients (57%) attaining this outcome, median time sustained at an ETDRS letter score of 70 (20/40) or better was 1.1 years (95% CI, 1.1-1.2).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration beginning anti-VEGF therapy were more likely to experience positive visual outcomes within the first 2.0 years after treatment, typically maintaining this outcome for 1.1 years but then deteriorating to poor vision within 8.7 years. These findings demonstrate the potential usefulness of the proposed analyses. This data set, combined with the statistical approach for retrospective analyses, may provide long-term prognostic information for patients newly diagnosed with this condition.

The Effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence Conversational Agents in Health Care: Systematic Review

Background

The high demand for health care services and the growing capability of artificial intelligence have led to the development of conversational agents designed to support a variety of health-related activities, including behavior change, treatment support, health monitoring, training, triage, and screening support. Automation of these tasks could free clinicians to focus on more complex work and increase the accessibility to health care services for the public. An overarching assessment of the acceptability, usability, and effectiveness of these agents in health care is needed to collate the evidence so that future development can target areas for improvement and potential for sustainable adoption.

Objective

This systematic review aims to assess the effectiveness and usability of conversational agents in health care and identify the elements that users like and dislike to inform future research and development of these agents.

Methods

PubMed, Medline (Ovid), EMBASE (Excerpta Medica dataBASE), CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), Web of Science, and the Association for Computing Machinery Digital Library were systematically searched for articles published since 2008 that evaluated unconstrained natural language processing conversational agents used in health care. EndNote (version X9, Clarivate Analytics) reference management software was used for initial screening, and full-text screening was conducted by 1 reviewer. Data were extracted, and the risk of bias was assessed by one reviewer and validated by another.

Results

A total of 31 studies were selected and included a variety of conversational agents, including 14 chatbots (2 of which were voice chatbots), 6 embodied conversational agents (3 of which were interactive voice response calls, virtual patients, and speech recognition screening systems), 1 contextual question-answering agent, and 1 voice recognition triage system. Overall, the evidence reported was mostly positive or mixed. Usability and satisfaction performed well (27/30 and 26/31), and positive or mixed effectiveness was found in three-quarters of the studies (23/30). However, there were several limitations of the agents highlighted in specific qualitative feedback.

Conclusions

The studies generally reported positive or mixed evidence for the effectiveness, usability, and satisfactoriness of the conversational agents investigated, but qualitative user perceptions were more mixed. The quality of many of the studies was limited, and improved study design and reporting are necessary to more accurately evaluate the usefulness of the agents in health care and identify key areas for improvement. Further research should also analyze the cost-effectiveness, privacy, and security of the agents.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/16934

Cyclin E1 and cyclin E2 in ER+ breast cancer: prospects as biomarkers and therapeutic targets

Cyclin E1 is one the most promising biomarkers in estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer for response to the new standard of care drug class, CDK4/6 inhibitors. Because of its strong predictive value, cyclin E1 expression may be used in the future to triage patients into potential responders and non-responders. Importantly, cyclin E1 is highly related to cyclin E2, and both cyclin E1 and cyclin E2 are estrogen target genes that can facilitate anti-estrogen resistance and can be highly expressed in breast cancer. However cyclin E1 and E2 are often expressed in different subsets of patients. This raises questions about whether the expression of cyclin E1 and cyclin E2 have different biological drivers, if high expressing subsets represent different clinical subtypes, and how to effectively develop a biomarker for E-cyclin expression. Finally, several pan-CDK inhibitors that target cyclin E-CDK2 activity have reached Phase II clinical trials. In this review, we outline the data identifying that different cohorts of patients have high expression of cyclins E1 and E2 in ER+ cancer and address the implications for biomarker and therapeutic development.