Development of a simple standardized scoring system for assessing large vessel vasculitis by 18F-FDG PET-CT and differentiation from atherosclerosis

PURPOSE

This study is to develop a structured approach to distinguishing large-artery vasculitis from atherosclerosis using 18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography combined with low-dose computed tomography (FDG PET/CT).

METHODS

FDG PET/CT images of 60 patients were evaluated, 30 having biopsy-proven giant cell arteritis (GCA; the most common form of large-artery vasculitis), and 30 with severe atherosclerosis. Images were evaluated by 12 nuclear medicine physicians using 5 criteria: FDG uptake pattern (intensity, distribution, circularity), the degree of calcification, and co-localization of calcifications with FDG-uptake. Criteria that passed agreement, and reliability tests were subsequently analysed for accuracy using receiver operator curve (ROC) analyses. Criteria that showed discriminative ability were then combined in a multi-component scoring system. Both initial and final 'gestalt' conclusion were also reported by observers before and after detailed examination of the images.

RESULTS

Agreement and reliability analyses disqualified 3 of the 5 criteria, leaving only FDG uptake intensity compared to liver uptake and arterial wall calcification for potential use in a scoring system. ROC analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95%CI 0.87-0.92) for FDG uptake intensity. Degree of calcification showed poor discriminative ability on its own (AUC of 0.62; 95%CI 0.58-0.66). When combining presence of calcification with FDG uptake intensity into a 6-tiered scoring system, the AUC remained similar at 0.91 (95%CI 0.88-0.93). After exclusion of cases with arterial prostheses, the AUC increased to 0.93 (95%CI 0.91-0.95). The accuracy of the 'gestalt' conclusion was initially 89% (95%CI 86-91%) and increased to 93% (95%CI 91-95%) after detailed image examination.

CONCLUSION

Standardised assessment of arterial wall FDG uptake intensity, preferably combined with assessment of arterial calcifications into a scoring method, enables accurate, but not perfect, distinction between large artery vasculitis and atherosclerosis.

RNA Biomarkers as a Response Measure for Survival in Patients with Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Treatment evaluation in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer is challenging. There is an urgent need for biomarkers to discriminate short-term survivors from long-term survivors, shortly after treatment initiation. Thereto, the added value of early RNA biomarkers on predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were explored. The RNA biomarkers: KLK3 mRNA, miR-375, miR-3687, and NAALADL2-AS2 were measured in 93 patients with mCRPC, before and 1 month after start of first-line abiraterone acetate or enzalutamide treatment, in two prospective clinical trials. The added value of the biomarkers to standard clinical parameters in predicting PFS and OS was tested by Harell's C-index. To test whether the biomarkers were independent markers of PFS and OS, multivariate Cox regression was used. The best prediction model for PFS and OS was formed by adding miR-375 and KLK3 (at baseline and 1 month) to standard clinical parameters. Baseline miR-375 and detectable KLK3 after 1 month of therapy were independently related to shorter PFS, which was not observed for OS. In conclusion, the addition of KLK3 and miR-375 (at baseline and 1 month) to standard clinical parameters resulted in the best prediction model for survival assessment.

Molecular Phenotyping of AR Signaling for Predicting Targeted Therapy in Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer

Castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) is defined by resistance of the tumor to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Several molecular changes, particularly in the AR signaling cascade, have been described that may explain ADT resistance. The variety of changes may also explain why the response to novel therapies varies between patients. Testing the specific molecular changes may be a major step towards personalized treatment of CRPC patients. The aim of our study was to evaluate the molecular changes in the AR signaling cascade in CRPC patients. We have developed and validated several methods which are easy to use, and require little tissue material, for exploring AR signaling pathway changes simultaneously. We found that the AR signaling pathway is still active in the majority of our CRPC patients, due to molecular changes in AR signaling components. There was heterogeneity in the molecular changes observed, but we could classify the patients into 4 major subgroups which are: AR mutation, AR amplification, active intratumoral steroidogenesis, and combination of AR amplification and active intratumoral steroidogenesis. We suggest characterizing the AR signaling pathway in CRPC patients before beginning any new treatment, and a recent fresh tissue sample from the prostate or a metastatic site should be obtained for the purpose of this characterization.

Liquid biopsy reveals KLK3 mRNA as a prognostic marker for progression free survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer undergoing first-line abiraterone acetate and prednisone treatment

Circulating RNAs extracted from liquid biopsies represent a promising source of cancer‐ and therapy‐related biomarkers. We screened whole blood from patients with metastatic castration‐resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) following their first‐line treatment with abiraterone acetate and prednisone (AA‐P) to identify circulating RNAs that may correlate with progression‐free survival (PFS). In a prospective multicenter observational study, 53 patients with mCRPC were included after they started first‐line AA‐P treatment. Blood was drawn at baseline, 1, 3, and 6 months after treatment initiation. The levels of predefined circulating RNAs earlier identified as being upregulated in patients with mCRPC (e.g., microRNAs, long noncoding RNAs, and mRNAs), were analyzed. Uni‐ and multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier analyses were used to analyze the prognostic value of the various circulating RNAs for PFS along treatment. Detectable levels of kallikrein‐related peptidase 3 (KLK3) mRNA at baseline were demonstrated to be an independent prognostic marker for PFS (201 vs 501 days, P = 0.00054). Three months after AA‐P treatment initiation, KLK3 could not be detected in the blood of responding patients, but was still detectable in 56% of the patients with early progression. Our study confirmed that KLK3 mRNA detection in whole blood is an independent prognostic marker in mCRPC patients receiving AA‐P treatment. Furthermore, the levels of circulating KLK3 mRNA in patients receiving AA‐P treatment might reflect treatment response or early signs of progression.

Prognostic Value of Novel Liquid Biomarkers in Patients with Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Treated with Enzalutamide: A Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Several treatment options were recently added for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, response to therapy is variable, and biomarkers that can guide treatment selection and response evaluation are lacking. Circulating RNAs are a promising source of biomarkers. We explored messenger RNAs (mRNAs), microRNAs (miRNAs), and long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) as potential biomarkers in liquid biopsies of patients with mCRPC treated with enzalutamide.

METHODS

Forty patients were included in this prospective multicenter observational study. Whole blood was drawn at baseline and 1, 3, and 6 months after start of therapy. Four mRNAs, 6 miRNAs, and 5 lncRNAs were analyzed by quantitative PCR. RNA levels in 30 healthy individuals were used as controls. RNA expression data were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses, and the primary end point was progression-free survival. Clinical factors were included in the multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Levels of 2 miRNAs, miR-375 and miR-3687, and 1 lncRNA, N-acetylated alpha-linked acidic dipeptidase like 2 antisense RNA 2 (NAALADL2-AS2), were more than 2-fold higher in patients with mCRPC compared with healthy volunteers. Patients with higher levels of miR-375 or miR-3687 showed a shorter time to progression. Patients with higher levels of NAALADL2-AS2 showed a longer time to progression. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, higher miR-375, miR-3687 and serum prostate-specific antigen concentrations were shown to be independent predictors for shorter time to progression.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified miR-3687 as a novel prognostic marker for response in patients with CRPC treated with enzalutamide, and we confirmed the prognostic value of miR-375.

Abstract 1413: Exploring the prognostic value of microRNAs and drug exposure in patients with metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer treated with abiraterone: a prospective observational study

Background Abiraterone acetate is registered for treatment of metastatic prostate cancer, including those with castration-resistant disease (mCRPC). Although it improves overall survival and progression free survival (PFS), treatment response differs between patients. Biomarkers to predict treatment response are lacking. Liquid biopsies containing microRNAs (miRNAs) are a promising source of prognostic biomarkers in mCRPC patients. Furthermore, the exposure to abiraterone in plasma is highly variable and subtherapeutic exposure might contribute to the variability in response to therapy. We explored the prognostic value of microRNAs and drug exposure in mCRPC patients treated with abiraterone.

Methods In a prospective multi-center observational study, 53 patients with mCRPC were included who started pre-chemotherapy abiraterone treatment. Blood was drawn at baseline, 1, 3 and 6 months after start of treatment. The following predefined miRNAs were selected; miR-21, miR-141, miR-200a, miR-200c, miR-375, miR-3687 and abiraterone concentrations were measured. MiRNA-levels in 30 healthy individuals served as controls. Relative miRNA-levels were calculated by the ΔΔCt method. If the geometric mean of a miRNA was more than 2-fold higher in patients versus healthy controls, they were included for survival analysis. Ctrough levels after 1, 3 and 6 months of therapy were measured. The average Ctrough level per patient was used for further analysis. The prognostic value of miRNAs and drug exposure for PFS (radiographic, biochemical or clinical progression) was analyzed with Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and tested with a log-rank test. Cut-off values for miRNAs in KM analysis were calculated using maximally selected rank statistics and for the relation with abiraterone Ctrough the earlier defined threshold of 8.4ng/ml was used.

Results Of the miRNAs analyzed, miR-375 was more than 2-fold higher in mCRPC patients versus healthy controls. Patients with more than 2.16 fold higher miR-375 compared to healthy controls showed a trend towards shorter PFS, median 352 vs. 456 days (p=0.076). No PFS benefit was shown for patients with a mean abiraterone Ctrough concentration ≥8.4ng/ml compared to patients below this threshold, median 411 vs. 409 days (p=0.81).

Conclusion High levels of miR-375 might be a prognostic biomarker for PFS in patients with mCRPC treated with abiraterone. The prognostic value of this miRNA should be further explored in a larger cohort of patients. Additionally, the functionality of miR-375 should be further elucidated. The beneficial effect of higher abiraterone exposure levels could not be confirmed in this study for this patient population.

Citation Format: Emmy Boerrigter, Guillemette E. Benoist, Inge M. van Oort, Gerald W. Verhaegh, Onno van Hooij, Levi Groen, Frank Smit, Irma M. Oving, Pieter de Mol, Tineke J. Smilde, Diederik M. Somford, Niven Mehra, Jack A. Schalken, Nielka P. van Erp. Exploring the prognostic value of microRNAs and drug exposure in patients with metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer treated with abiraterone: a prospective observational study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research 2020; 2020 Apr 27-28 and Jun 22-24. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(16 Suppl):Abstract nr 1413.

Sustained Postnatal Skin Regeneration Upon Prenatal Application of Functionalized Collagen Scaffolds

Primary closure of fetal skin in spina bifida protects the spinal cord and improves clinical outcome, but is also associated with postnatal growth malformations and spinal cord tethering. In this study, we evaluated the postnatal effects of prenatally closed full-thickness skin defects in sheep applying collagen scaffolds with and without heparin/vascular endothelial growth factor/fibroblast growth factor 2, focusing on skin regeneration and growth. At 6 months, collagen scaffold functionalized with heparin, VEGF, and FGF2 (COL-HEP/GF) resulted in a 6.9-fold increase of the surface area of the regenerated skin opposed to 1.7 × for collagen only. Epidermal thickness increased 5.7-fold at 1 month, in line with high gene expression of S100 proteins, and decreased to 2.1 at 6 months. Increased adipose tissue and reduced scaffold degradation and number of myofibroblasts were observed for COL-HEP/GF. Gene ontology terms related to extracellular matrix (ECM) organization were enriched for both scaffold treatments. In COL-HEP/GF, ECM gene expression resembled native skin. Expression of hair follicle-related genes in COL-HEP/GF was comparable to native skin, and de novo hair follicle generation was indicated. In conclusion, in utero closure of skin defects using functionalized collagen scaffolds resulted in long-term skin regeneration and growth. Functionalized collagen scaffolds that grow with the child may be useful for prenatal treatment of closure defects like spina bifida. Impact statement Prenatal closure of fetal skin in case of spina bifida prevents damage to the spinal cord. Closure of the defect is challenging and may result in postnatal growth malformations. In this study, the postnatal effects of a prenatally applied collagen scaffold functionalized with heparin and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)/fibroblast growth factor (FGF) were investigated. An increase of the surface area of regenerated skin ("growing with the child") and generation of hair follicles was observed. Gene expression levels resembled those of native skin with respect to the extracellular matrix and hair follicles. Overall, in utero closure of skin defects using heparin/VEGF/FGF functionalized collagen scaffolds results in long-term skin regeneration.

Social cost-benefit analysis of regulatory policies to reduce alcohol use in The Netherlands

Background

If all costs and all benefits of alcohol use are expressed in monetary terms, the net costs were 2,3 to 4,2 billion euro in 2013. Examples of the costs of alcohol are less productivity at work, costs of police and justice and traffic accidents.

Methods

In this study three regulatory policies have been modelled using the Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA) approach. Regulatory policies aimed at curbing alcohol consumption were (1) an increase in excise taxes, (2) a reduction of the number of sales venues, and (3) a total mediaban for advertising alcohol.

Results

In the long run, over a period of 50 years, an increase in excise taxes of 50% will result in societal benefits of 4.5 to 10.7 billion euro, an increase of excise taxes of 200% will result in societal benefits of 12.2 to 35.8 billion euro. The societal benefits of closure of 10% of sales venues are estimated at 1.8 to 4.3 billion euro after 50 years, and at 4.6 to 10.7 billion euro when 25% of sales venues would be closed. The societal benefits of a mediaban would amount to 3.5 to 7.8 billion euro after 50 years, but this estimate is surrounded by uncertainty.

Conclusions

Regulatory policies aimed at reducing the amount of alcohol consumed, such as a further increase of excise taxes, a reduction of the number of sales venues and a total mediaban, will result in savings for society at large. However, costs and benefits are spread unequally over the different stakeholders.

Social cost-benefit analysis of tobacco control policies in the Netherlands

Background

In the Netherlands approximately 23% of the population of 15 years and older smokes. The main research questions were to identify what social costs- and benefits can be expected when various tobacco control policies would be implemented in The Netherlands, how do costs and benefits change over time, and which sectors in society could expect to incur costs and in which sectors accrue profits.

Methods

A SCBA was conducted using a combination of the Chronic Disease Model developed by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the SimSmoke model and a specially designed excel model. Policies included both tax increases (i.e. increase of excise tax on tobacco of 5% or 10% each year) and a policy package as proposed by the World Health Organization (i.e. including mass media campaigns and mediabans).

Results

When no new policy measures are implemented, the prevalence of smoking will decrease by 2.3 percentage points over the next 35 years. The policies reviewed in this report have the potential to decrease smoking prevalence by 14.2 percentage points (and in a ‘smoking-free society scenario, by as much as 17.4 percentage points). Furthermore, the results show that the intervention costs for all scenarios are minimal, and that investing in health is beneficial as seen from both the public health and fiscal perspective.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated that reducing the prevalence of smoking has beneficial effects for various stakeholders within the Dutch society: such as employers (e.g. increased productivity) and consumers (e.g. increase quality of life).

Freehand-SPECT with 99mTc-HDP as tool to guide percutaneous biopsy of skeletal lesions detected on bone scintigraphy

PURPOSE

To assess the feasibility of using freehand Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (freehandSPECT) for the identification of technetium-99m-hydroxydiphosphonate (^99mTc-HDP) positive bone lesions and to evaluate the possibility of using these imaging data-sets for augmented- and virtual-reality based navigation approaches.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In 20 consecutive patients referred for scintigraphy with ^99mTc-HDP, 21 three-dimensional freehandSPECT-images were generated using a handheld gamma camera. Concordance of the two different data sets was ranked. Furthermore, feasibility of segmenting the hotspot of tracer accumulation for navigation purposes was assessed.

RESULTS

In 86% of the cases freehandSPECT images showed good concordance with the corresponding part of the scintigraphic images. In lesions with a signal to background ratio (SBR) >1.36, freehandSPECT provided an automatically segmented reference point for navigation purposes. In 14% of the cases (average SBR 1.82, range 1.0-3.4) freehandSPECT images showed intermediate concordance due to difficult anatomical area or negative bone scintigraphy and could not be used as navigation targets.

CONCLUSION

In this pilot study, in 86% of the cases freehandSPECT demonstrated good concordance with traditional scintigraphy. A lesion with a SBR of 1.36 or more was suitable for navigation. These high-quality freehandSPECT images supported the future exploration navigation strategies, e.g. guided needle biopsies.

Fatty acid binding protein 7 may be a marker and therapeutic targets in clear cell renal cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

To identify potential therapeutic target in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC), we performed a transcriptome analysis. Our analysis showed that fatty acid binding protein 7 (FABP7) has the highest mean differential overexpression in ccRCC compared to normal kidney. We aimed to investigate the significance of FABP7 in ccRCC.

METHODS

Immunohistochemical staining for 40 advanced ccRCC cases was performed to investigate correlation between clinicopathological parameters and FABP7. They were composed of 40-83 years old cases with 33 male, 22 cases with pT ≥ 3, 19 cases with M1, and 16 cases with grade 3. The effect of gene knockdown was analysed by a cell viability assay and invasion assay in FABP7-overexpressing cell lines (SKRC7 and SKRC10).

RESULTS

Our immunohistochemical analysis showed that higher FABP7 expression significantly correlated with distant metastasis and poor cancer-specific survival (CSS; both p < 0.05). Functional suppression of FABP7 significantly inhibited SKRC10 cell growth (p < 0.05) and resulted in a significant reduction of the invasive potential (p < 0.01), but did not cause growth inhibition of SKRC7 cells. We found that The Cancer Genome Atlas Research Network (TCGA) database shows FABP6 and 7 as equally overexpressed in the FABP family. Functional suppression of fatty acid binding protein 6 (FABP6) resulted in significant growth inhibition of SKRC7 cells (p < 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Functional suppression of FABP7 significantly reduced cell viability and invasive potential in a ccRCC cell line. FABP7 may play a role in progression in some metastatic ccRCCs. The suppressed function may be compensated by another FABP family member.

Value and potential limitations of vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) compared to conventional spine radiography: experience from a fracture liaison service (FLS) and a meta-analysis

We evaluated the value of VFA in the identification of vertebral fractures using a retrospective study and a meta-analysis. Performance of VFA was adequate in the meta-analysis although this was not demonstrated in our centre. We recommend checking the performance of VFA tools before exclusively relying on this tool.

INTRODUCTION

Vertebral fractures are traditionally diagnosed using conventional radiographs of the spine. Vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) has been advocated as an alternative tool in the diagnosis of these fractures.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study as well as a systematic review and a meta-analysis to evaluate the performance of VFA compared to conventional spinal radiography in patients who had sustained a fracture and thus at risk for osteoporosis. A risk of bias analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

The diagnostic study included 542 patients (25% male) with fractures. The sensitivity of low-radiation VFA to detect a patient with a vertebral fracture ≥ Genant grade 2 was 0.77 and its specificity 0.80. Two hundred ninety-seven (55%) patients had ≥1 and 135(25%) ≥3 unevaluable vertebrae. The systematic review identified 16 studies including a total of 3238 subjects (19% male) with a mean age range of 45 to 74 years. Seven studies had a low risk of bias and 9 had an intermediate risk, mainly due to not consecutively including patients. The pooled sensitivity of VFA to detect a patient with a vertebral fracture ≥Genant grade 2 was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.72-0.92) and specificity 0.90 (95% CI, 0.84-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings from the meta-analysis suggest an adequate performance of VFA for the detection of vertebral fractures. However, we could not demonstrate these findings in our center, especially the specificity. Our data advocate caution with exclusively relying on VFA in the assessment of vertebral fractures without identifying performance and potential limitations of the technique.

Development of a stage-dependent prognostic model to predict psychosis in ultra-high-risk patients seeking treatment for co-morbid psychiatric disorders

BACKGROUND

Current ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria appear insufficient to predict imminent onset of first-episode psychosis, as a meta-analysis showed that about 20% of patients have a psychotic outcome after 2 years. Therefore, we aimed to develop a stage-dependent predictive model in UHR individuals who were seeking help for co-morbid disorders.

METHOD

Baseline data on symptomatology, and environmental and psychological factors of 185 UHR patients (aged 14-35 years) participating in the Dutch Early Detection and Intervention Evaluation study were analysed with Cox proportional hazard analyses.

RESULTS

At 18 months, the overall transition rate was 17.3%. The final predictor model included five variables: observed blunted affect [hazard ratio (HR) 3.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.56-7.35, p < 0.001], subjective complaints of impaired motor function (HR 5.88, 95% CI 1.21-6.10, p = 0.02), beliefs about social marginalization (HR 2.76, 95% CI 1.14-6.72, p = 0.03), decline in social functioning (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.17, p = 0.03), and distress associated with suspiciousness (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03, p = 0.01). The positive predictive value of the model was 80.0%. The resulting prognostic index stratified the general risk into three risk classes with significantly different survival curves. In the highest risk class, transition to psychosis emerged on average ⩾8 months earlier than in the lowest risk class.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicting a first-episode psychosis in help-seeking UHR patients was improved using a stage-dependent prognostic model including negative psychotic symptoms (observed flattened affect, subjective impaired motor functioning), impaired social functioning and distress associated with suspiciousness. Treatment intensity may be stratified and personalized using the risk stratification.

Elevated HOXC6/DLX1 mRNA biomarker levels in urine to help select patients at increased risk for high-grade prostate cancer detection upon prostate biopsy

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Background: The major challenge in prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostics is to improve the early detection of clinically significant or high-grade PCa, especially in the sPSA "grey-zone" (4-10 ng/ml). Ideally, PCa-specific biomarkers would be obtained non-invasively, for example derived from urine. The aim of this study was to evaluate the expression levels and clinical utility of the recently identified urinary HOXC6-DLX1 mRNA biomarker combination in men at risk of having high-grade PCa. Methods: From two prospective, multicenter studies, a total of 863 post-DRE urine samples were collected from men with elevated sPSA levels before undergoing a prostate biopsy procedure. The HOXC6-DLX1 mRNA biomarkers were measured in urine using RT-qPCR and results were quantified using the Delta DeltaCt method (ΔΔCT), normalized and expressed in a score from 1 to 1421. Results: The HOXC6-DLX1 risk score was significantly higher in urine from patients with high-grade PCa upon prostate biopsy compared to no PCa and PCa Gleason score ≤6. In the sPSA "grey-zone", the HOXC6-DLX1 combination had the highest area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.58-0.75) for prediction of high-grade PCa upon prostate biopsy in cohort A and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.59-0.76) in cohort B; as compared to sPSA with an AUC of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.51-0.70) and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.52-0.73) respectively. Overall, elevated HOXC6-DLX1 risk scores correlated with an increased risk of high-grade PCa detected on biopsy; 47% of men with a score >108 had significant cancer as compared to 6% with a risk score <17. Using a HOXC6-DLX1 risk score cut-off of 27.5 in the sPSA "grey-zone", 165 biopsies (31%) could have been avoided, and only 4% of patients with high-grade PCa would have been missed. Conclusions: The urine-based HOXC6-DLX1 assay provides a non-invasive solution to improve the selection of patients at increased risk for high-grade PCa who would benefit most from a prostate biopsy procedure, while reducing the number of unnecessary biopsies, particularly in the sPSA "grey-zone".

[Prognostic modelling and proactive intervention in psychosis: efficacy and cost-effectiveness]

Diagnoses have heterogeneous outcomes, varying from good to extremely poor. There is a need to single out an ultra-high-risk group of individuals who have illnesses that might well end unfavourably or who might later develop serious psychopathology.<br/> AIM: To devise a screening instrument that can identify a group of individuals who run a very high risk of developing a first-episode psychosis, and to create a type of intervention that can modify the course of the illness.<br/> METHOD: We developed a short screening instrument (PQ-16) and were able to ascertain its predictive value. We also tested an intervention that could influence risk factors and deal with emerging symptoms thereby achieving a better outcome for the patient.<br/> RESULTS: We developed a two-step detection instrument with a positive predictive value of 44%. The intervention, involving cognitive behavioural therapy for ultra-high-risk patients, was effective and led to a risk reduction of about 50%. Using the ultra-high-risk group of patients, we were able to model three prognostic profiles, each carrying a 4%, 13%, and 70% risk of subsequently developing psychosis. The intervention was cost-effective, reducing the financial burden on the health care services and on society as a whole.<br/> CONCLUSION: Prognostic modelling and proactive intervention can achieve improvements in health at lower costs.

[Online self-help for persons with suicidal intentions: budget impact analysis]

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Metacognitive training for schizophrenia spectrum patients: a meta-analysis on outcome studies

BACKGROUND

Metacognitive training (MCT) for schizophrenia spectrum is widely implemented. It is timely to systematically review the literature and to conduct a meta-analysis.

METHOD

Eligible studies were selected from several sources (databases and expert suggestions). Criteria included comparative studies with a MCT condition measuring positive symptoms and/or delusions and/or data-gathering bias. Three meta-analyses were conducted on data gathering (three studies; 219 participants), delusions (seven studies; 500 participants) and positive symptoms (nine studies; 436 participants). Hedges' g is reported as the effect size of interest. Statistical power was sufficient to detect small to moderate effects.

RESULTS

All analyses yielded small non-significant effect sizes (0.26 for positive symptoms; 0.22 for delusions; 0.31 for data-gathering bias). Corrections for publication bias further reduced the effect sizes to 0.21 for positive symptoms and to 0.03 for delusions. In blinded studies, the corrected effect sizes were 0.22 for positive symptoms and 0.03 for delusions. In studies using proper intention-to-treat statistics the effect sizes were 0.10 for positive symptoms and -0.02 for delusions. The moderate to high heterogeneity in most analyses suggests that processes other than MCT alone have an impact on the results.

CONCLUSIONS

The studies so far do not support a positive effect for MCT on positive symptoms, delusions and data gathering. The methodology of most studies was poor and sensitivity analyses to control for methodological flaws reduced the effect sizes considerably. More rigorous research would be helpful in order to create enough statistical power to detect small effect sizes and to reduce heterogeneity. Limitations and strengths are discussed.

[Child maltreatment: long-term economic consequences and implications]

Child maltreatment occurs frequently. This has detrimental effects later in life on mental health and is linked to considerable costs due to health care use and sick leave. Self-mastery, however, is a factor that may well mitigated the effects of child maltreatment . <br/> AIM: To quantify the long-term costs of child abuse and to test the hypothesis that self-mastery can modify the after-effects of maltreatment .<br/> METHOD: Data were obtained from a psychiatric cohort study (n=5618). The risk factors were emotional neglect and mental, physical and sexual abuse before the age of 16.<br/> RESULTS: When individuals are about 39 years old, the various forms of maltreatment to which they were subjected as children are associated with substantially higher health care costs and frequent absenteeism. Higher levels of self-mastery achieved in childhood were indeed associated with lower costs in adulthood. <br/> CONCLUSION: Child maltreatment costs the Netherlands millions of euros annually because it leads to higher health care costs and more frequent sick leave. Active steps to curb child abuse are of both financial and economic significance. More training in self-mastery could perhaps be helpful, but further research is needed in this area.

The role of HOXC6 in prostate cancer development

BACKGROUND

Homeobox (HOX) genes, which are involved in organ development and homeostasis, have been shown to be involved in normal prostate- and PCa development. In this study, we investigate the expression levels of the HOX A-D genes in PCa. The functional relevance and potential of HOX gene as biomarkers are explored.

METHODS

We evaluated HOX gene expression in prostate tissues of different grade and stage and related the outcome to clinical parameters. We analyzed AR regulation and function of HOXC6 in PCa cell lines. We developed a urine-based HOXC6 mRNA assay for diagnostic purposes.

RESULTS

HOXC6 was one of the most upregulated HOX genes in all primary, metastasized, and castration-resistant PCa. HOXC6 upregulation was specific to the epithelial component of PCa, and HOXC6 was shown to be involved in epithelial cell proliferation. HOXC6 expression was not influenced by androgens nor by treatments targeting the AR signaling pathway. HOXC6 expression was not related to a prognosis after radical prostatectomy, that is, biochemical or local recurrence. We successfully developed an assay for HOXC6 mRNA detection in urine and confirmed that HOXC6 levels are higher in PCa patients.

CONCLUSIONS

HOXC6 has a role in all PCa stages, particularly in PCa cell proliferation. Due to its stable expression, HOXC6 is a novel candidate biomarker for PCa not only in early detection but also for monitoring of progression or response to therapy.

Predictors of treatment dropout in self-guided web-based interventions for depression: an 'individual patient data' meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

It is well known that web-based interventions can be effective treatments for depression. However, dropout rates in web-based interventions are typically high, especially in self-guided web-based interventions. Rigorous empirical evidence regarding factors influencing dropout in self-guided web-based interventions is lacking due to small study sample sizes. In this paper we examined predictors of dropout in an individual patient data meta-analysis to gain a better understanding of who may benefit from these interventions.

METHOD

A comprehensive literature search for all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of psychotherapy for adults with depression from 2006 to January 2013 was conducted. Next, we approached authors to collect the primary data of the selected studies. Predictors of dropout, such as socio-demographic, clinical, and intervention characteristics were examined.

RESULTS

Data from 2705 participants across ten RCTs of self-guided web-based interventions for depression were analysed. The multivariate analysis indicated that male gender [relative risk (RR) 1.08], lower educational level (primary education, RR 1.26) and co-morbid anxiety symptoms (RR 1.18) significantly increased the risk of dropping out, while for every additional 4 years of age, the risk of dropping out significantly decreased (RR 0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Dropout can be predicted by several variables and is not randomly distributed. This knowledge may inform tailoring of online self-help interventions to prevent dropout in identified groups at risk.

Long-term efficacy of indicated prevention of depression in non-professional caregivers: randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Although depression is a common problem among non-professional caregivers, only one trial has evaluated the efficacy of indicated prevention targeting this population and the long-term efficacy is unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy of a brief intervention for the indicated prevention of depression in a sample of female caregivers.

METHOD

A randomized controlled trial was conducted involving 173 participants (mean age 53.9 years) who were allocated to the intervention (n = 89) or the usual-care control group (n = 84). Blinded interviewers conducted assessments at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months of follow-up. The main outcome measure was the incidence of major depression and the secondary outcomes were compliance with treatment, depressive symptoms, emotional distress and caregiver burden.

RESULTS

At the 12-month follow-up, a lower incidence of depression as evaluated using the Structured Clinical Interview for Axis I Disorders of the DSM-IV was found in the intervention group compared with the control group (10.1% v. 25.0%). The relative risk was 0.40 and statistically significant [χ2 = 6.68, degrees of freedom = 1, p = 0.010, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.81], and the number needed to treat was 7 (95% CI 4-27). There was a significant delay in the onset of depression in the intervention group (p = 0.008). The good complier caregivers had a lower incidence of depression. The intervention effect on depressive symptoms, emotional distress and caregiver burden were maintained for 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to demonstrate that a brief problem-solving intervention can prevent the onset of depression among non-professional caregivers over the longer term.

Cost-effectiveness of preventing first-episode psychosis in ultra-high-risk subjects: multi-centre randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Although there is evidence for the effectiveness of interventions for psychosis among ultra-high-risk (UHR) groups, health economic evaluations are lacking. This study aimed to determine the cost effectiveness and cost-utility of cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) to prevent first-episode psychosis.

METHOD

The Dutch Early Detection and Intervention Evaluation study was a randomized controlled trial of 196 UHR patients with an 18-month follow-up. All participants were treated with routine care (RC) for non-psychotic disorders. The experimental group (n = 95) received add-on CBT to prevent first-episode psychosis. We report the intervention, medical and travel costs, as well as costs arising from loss of productivity. Treatment response was defined as psychosis-free survival and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained.

RESULTS

In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the proportion of averted psychoses was significantly higher in the CBT condition (89.5% v. 76.2%). CBT showed a 63.7% probability of being more cost effective, because it was less costly than RC by US$844 (£551) per prevented psychosis. In the cost-utility analysis, QALY health gains were slightly higher for CBT than for RC (0.60 v. 0.57) and the CBT intervention had a 52.3% probability of being the superior treatment because, for equal or better QALY gains, the costs of CBT were lower than those of RC.

CONCLUSIONS

Add-on preventive CBT for UHR resulted in a significant reduction in the incidence of first psychosis. QALY gains show little difference between the two conditions. The CBT intervention proved to be cost saving.

Adapted cognitive-behavioural therapy required for targeting negative symptoms in schizophrenia: meta-analysis and meta-regression

BACKGROUND

There is an increasing interest in cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) interventions targeting negative symptoms in schizophrenia. To date, CBT trials primarily focused on positive symptoms and investigated change in negative symptoms only as a secondary outcome. To enhance insight into factors contributing to improvement of negative symptoms, and to identify subgroups of patients that may benefit most from CBT directed at ameliorating negative symptoms, we reviewed all available evidence on these outcomes.

METHOD

A systematic search of the literature was conducted in PsychInfo, PubMed and the Cochrane register to identify randomized controlled trials reporting on the impact of CBT interventions on negative symptoms in schizophrenia. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed on end-of-treatment, short-term and long-term changes in negative symptoms.

RESULTS

A total of 35 publications covering 30 trials in 2312 patients, published between 1993 and 2013, were included. Our results showed studies' pooled effect on symptom alleviation to be small [Hedges' g = 0.093, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.028 to 0.214, p = 0.130] and heterogeneous (Q = 73.067, degrees of freedom = 29, p < 0.001, τ 2 = 0.081, I 2 = 60.31) in studies with negative symptoms as a secondary outcome. Similar results were found for studies focused on negative symptom reduction (Hedges' g = 0.157, 95% CI -0.10 to 0.409, p = 0.225). Meta-regression revealed that stronger treatment effects were associated with earlier year of publication, lower study quality and with CBT provided individually (as compared with group-based).

CONCLUSIONS

The co-occurring beneficial effect of conventional CBT on negative symptoms found in older studies was not supported by more recent studies. It is now necessary to further disentangle effective treatment ingredients of older studies in order to guide the development of future CBT interventions aimed at negative symptom reduction.

Rational basis for the combination of PCA3 and TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion for prostate cancer diagnosis

BACKGROUND

The prostate cancer gene 3 (PCA3) and TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion are promising prostate cancer (PCa) specific biomarkers. Our aim was to simultaneously quantify the expression levels of PCA3 and TMPRSS2:ERG in a panel of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), normal prostate adjacent to PCa (NP) and PCa tissue samples, to provide a rational basis for the understanding of the false-positive and false-negative results of the urine assays.

METHODS

The tissue samples were carefully histopathologically characterized to obtain homogeneous groups. The mRNA was isolated, transcribed into cDNA and the relative expressions of PCA3 and TMPRSS2:ERG were measured using a quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The expression levels of PCA3 and TMPRSS2:ERG were compared between the different groups.

RESULTS

We included 48 BPH, 32 NP, and 48 PCa. The PCA3 expression levels progressively increased from BPH to NP (3 times) and finally to PCa (30 times). There were one false-positive sample and seven false-negative samples. The TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion was found in 8.3% of the BPH, 15.6% of the NP, and 50% of the PCa samples. The use of TMPRSS2:ERG in the PCA3 negative cases allowed diagnosis of four of the seven false-negative samples and added one false-positive, but we had to define a cut-off value to avoid eight false-positive results.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering tissue expression of the markers, most of the false-negative results of the PCA3 test were corrected by TMPRSS2:ERG (57%) and the combination of both had a higher sensitivity for PCa diagnosis. Some of the control samples did express TMPRSS2:ERG and a cut-off value had to be defined to avoid false-positive results.

Life review therapy for older adults with moderate depressive symptomatology: a pragmatic randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND. Although there is substantial evidence for the efficacy of life review therapy as an early treatment of depression in later life, its effectiveness in natural settings has not been studied. The present study evaluates an intervention based on life review and narrative therapy in a large multi-site, pragmatic randomized controlled trial(RCT). METHOD. Life review therapy was compared with care as usual. The primary outcome was depressive symptoms;secondary outcomes were anxiety symptoms, positive mental health, quality of life, and current major depressive episode (MDE). To identify groups for whom the intervention was particularly effective, moderator analyses were carried out (on sociodemographic variables, personality traits, reminiscence functions, clinically relevant depressive and anxiety symptoms, and past MDEs). RESULTS. Compared with care as usual (n=102), life review therapy (n=100) was effective in reducing depressive symptoms, at post-treatment (d=0.60, B= -5.3, p<0.001), at 3-month follow-up (d=0.50, B= -5.0, p<0.001) and for the intervention also at 9-month follow-up (t=5.7, p<0.001). The likelihood of a clinically significant change in depressive symptoms was significantly higher [odds ratio (OR) 3.77, p<0.001 at post-treatment ; OR 3.76, p<0.001 at the 3-month follow-up]. Small significant effects were found for symptoms of anxiety and positive mental health.Moderator analyses showed only two significant moderators, the personality trait of extraversion and the reminiscence function of boredom reduction. CONCLUSIONS. This study shows the effectiveness of life review therapy as an early intervention for depression in an ecologically valid context, supporting its applicability to a broad target group. The intervention is also effective in reducing anxiety symptoms and strengthening positive mental health.

Integrative genomic, transcriptomic, and RNAi analysis indicates a potential oncogenic role for FAM110B in castration-resistant prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) represents a therapeutic challenge for current medications.

METHODS

In order to explore the molecular mechanisms involved in CRPC progression and to identify new therapeutic targets, we analyzed a unique sample set of 11 CRPCs and 7 advanced tumors by array-CGH and gene expression microarrays. The genome-wide DNA and RNA data were integrated to identify genes whose overexpression was driven by their amplification. To assess the functional role of these genes, their expression was analyzed in a transcriptional data set of 329 clinical prostate cancers and the corresponding gene products were silenced using RNA interference in prostate cancer cells.

RESULTS

Six recurrent genetic targets were identified in the CRPCs; ATP1B1, AR, FAM110B, LAS1L, MYC, and YIPF6. In addition to AR and MYC, FAM110B emerged as a potential key gene involved in CRPC progression in a subset of the tumors. FAM110B was able to regulate AR signaling in prostate cancer cells and FAM110B itself was regulated by androgens. FAM110B siRNA inhibited the growth of prostate cancer cells in vitro, and this effect was substantially enhanced in androgen deficient conditions. Ectopic FAM110B expression in non-cancerous epithelial prostate cells induced aneuploidy and impaired antigen presentation.

CONCLUSIONS

The DNA/RNA gene outlier detection combined with siRNA cell proliferation assay identified FAM110B as a potential growth promoting key gene for CRPC. FAM110B appears to have a key role in the androgen signaling and progression of CRPC impacting multiple cancer hallmarks and therefore highlighting a potential therapeutic target.

Biomarkers for the diagnosis of prostatic inflammation in benign prostatic hyperplasia

BACKGROUND

Chronic prostatic inflammation could be a central mechanism in benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) progression. Currently, the histological examination of prostate biopsies remains the only way to diagnose prostatic inflammation. Our objective was to find new noninvasive biomarkers for the diagnosis of prostatic inflammation.

METHODS

Ninety BPH samples were investigated in two steps. First, a hypothesis was generated using a profiling procedure with a panel of 96 genes on an initial set of 30 samples. Then, the candidate biomarkers were validated on a large number of samples (n = 90). Gene expression was compared with the histological prostatic inflammation score based on the density and the confluence of lymphoid nodules. Finally, protein transcripts of the candidate biomarkers were investigated in urine samples and compared with clinical data.

RESULTS

Of the 96 genes, nine were significantly correlated with the inflammation score on the initial set of patients. Four of them were validated on the complete set of patients: CCR7, CD40LG, CTLA4, and ICOS. ICOS and CTLA4 protein levels were readily measured in urine samples using a conventional ELISA procedure. High-ICOS expression in urine was associated with a higher post-void residual and a lower maximum urinary flow rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Four genes were significantly upregulated at the mRNA level in the prostate tissue of patients with severe inflammation score. Two proteins were measured in urine samples, and were associated with maximum uroflowmetry and post-void residual. A prospective clinical study is needed to confirm their clinical relevance.

Fifty years of thoracic surgical research in South Africa

AIM

To investigate the scope and trends in clinical research in South African thoracic surgery between 1955 and 2006 and to measure its impact on clinical practice.

METHOD

A systematic review of all SA thoracic surgical publications was performed.

RESULTS

There were 252 general thoracic publications and a marked decrease in publications was noted after the peak period of productivity of the 1980s. There was a shift toward the private sector as an origin of articles and toward a local, non-indexed journal. Inflammatory lung disease was the most frequent topic of publication. Case series and case reports were the most frequent type of article.

CONCLUSION

The vulnerability of a small specialty in a developing country is illustrated by the clear trends that emerged. The study provides important indicators for future research, highlights the need for a national database of clinical experience, and emphasises the importance of rekindling interest and a culture of research in thoracic surgery.

Incidence of social phobia and identification of its risk indicators: a model for prevention

OBJECTIVE

This study seeks to examine the incidence of social phobia in the general population and to establish a number of risk indicators.

METHOD

Data were derived from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) which is a population based prospective study (n=7076). A sample of adults aged 18-64 years (n=5618) were re-interviewed 1 year later using Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI).

RESULTS

The 12-month incidence of DSM-III-R social phobia was 1.0%. Low education, low mastery, low self-esteem, emotional neglect in childhood and ongoing difficulties were found to be risk indicators. After including other mental disorders as risk indicators in the model, the incidence was found to be more common among those with low mastery, major depression, subthreshold social phobia, emotional neglect, negative life events, and low education.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of social phobia can be predicted relatively well with psychosocial variables and comorbidity.

On-line and Off-line Strategies for Preventing Depression

Depression is associated with a formidable disease burden and has substantial economic ramifications. Its burden can only be partially alleviated through treatment. To make a more substantial impact on population health, we need primary prevention to reduce the number of new cases, and we need to do a better job about preventing relapses and recurrences. In this symposium we will present the latest evidence that prevention is a viable option: it is effective and cost-effective when offered as CBT-based self-help (bibliotherapy), and as preventive cognitive therapy for relapses and recurrences. The last couple of years witnessed a new approach to improving population health when some of these preventive interventions became available as internet-based interventions. These on-line interventions can be well structured and conducted either as pure self-help or with support by a therapist. We assume that on-line interventions are acceptable, because people can access these interventions in the privacy of their homes, at times they find convenient, and at a pace that suits them best. We also expect that these interventions can be cost-effective, especially when offered as self-help. Finally, we expect that on-line interventions have great potential to reach many people. It is therefore interesting to outline some of these new strategies and present evidence of their (cost) effectiveness.

[Subclinical depression: a clinically relevant condition?]

BACKGROUND

Subclinical depression is a condition in which a person has depressive symptoms but does not meet the criteria for a depressive disorder.

AIM

To give insight in the clinical relevance of subclinical depression. method A review of a series of studies that the authors co-authored on the subject of subclinical depression. results These studies showed that subthreshold depression has serious consequences for the quality of life, but not as serious as in the case of a depressive disorder. It was also found that subthreshold (minor) depression can have considerable economic consequences for the individual concerned, although again less severe than if the individual had a depressive disorder. Because minor depression was more prevalent, the total costs of minor depression in the Netherlands (EUR 1.5 billion per year) appeared to be comparable to those of major depression (EUR 1.8 billion). It was also clear that subjects with subthreshold depression have an increased risk of developing a major depression. The degree of risk depended on a number of factors, including the definition of subthreshold depression. meta-analysis of seven studies examining the effects of psychological treatments of subthreshold depression showed that these treatments are effective (Cohen's d = 0.42; 95% ci: 0.23-0.60) and that they may well prevent the onset of major depression (incidence rate ratio: 0.70; 95% ci: 0.47-1.03; p < 0.1).

CONCLUSION

Subthreshold depression has serious consequences for the quality of life, but not as serious as in the case of a depressive disorder. Psychological treatment is effective.

Recombinant human deoxyribonuclease for the treatment of acute asthma in children

BACKGROUND

Airway obstruction in acute asthma is the result of airway smooth muscle contraction, inflammation and mucus plugging. Case reports suggest that mucolytic therapy might be beneficial in acute asthma. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of the mucolytic drug recombinant human deoxyribonuclease (rhDNase) in addition to standard treatment at the emergency department in children with an asthma exacerbation.

METHODS

In a multicentre randomised double-blind controlled clinical trial, 121 children brought to the emergency room for a moderate to severe asthma exacerbation were randomly assigned to receive either a single dose of 5 mg nebulised rhDNase or placebo following the second dose of bronchodilators. An asthma score (scale 5-15) was assessed at baseline and at 1, 2, 6, 12 and 24 h. The primary outcome variable was the asthma score 1 h after the study medication.

RESULTS

One hour after the study medication the asthma score in the rhDNase group showed an adjusted mean decrease from baseline of 1.0 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.6) points compared with 0.7 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.2) points in the placebo group (mean difference 0.4 (95% CI -0.2 to 1.0) points; p = 0.23). The asthma score over the study period of 24 h also did not differ significantly between the rhDNase and placebo group (mean difference 0.2 (95% CI -0.3 to 0.7) points, p = 0.40). The duration of oxygen supplementation and number of bronchodilator treatments in the first 24 h were similar in both groups.

CONCLUSION

Adding a single dose of nebulised rhDNase to standard treatment in the emergency room has no beneficial effects in children with moderate to severe acute asthma.

Completeness of notification of tuberculosis in The Netherlands: how reliable is record-linkage and capture-recapture analysis?

The aim of this study was to describe a systematic process of record-linkage, cross-validation, case-ascertainment and capture-recapture analysis to assess the quality of tuberculosis registers and to estimate the completeness of notification of incident tuberculosis cases in The Netherlands in 1998. After record-linkage and cross-validation 1499 tuberculosis patients were identified, of whom 1298 were notified, resulting in an observed under-notification of 13.4%. After adjustment for possible imperfect record-linkage and remaining false-positive hospital cases observed under-notification was 7.3%. Log-linear capture-recapture analysis initially estimated a total number of 2053 (95% CI 1871-2443) tuberculosis cases, resulting in an estimated under-notification of 36.8%. After adjustment for possible imperfect record-linkage and remaining false-positive hospital cases various capture-recapture models estimated under-notification at 13.6%. One of the reasons for the higher than expected estimated under-notification in a country with a well-organized system of tuberculosis control might be that some tuberculosis cases, e.g. extrapulmonary tuberculosis, are managed by clinicians less familiar with notification of infectious diseases. This study demonstrates the possible impact of violation of assumptions underlying capture-recapture analysis, especially the perfect record-linkage, perfect positive predictive value and absent three-way interaction assumptions.

Estimating the coverage of a targeted mobile tuberculosis screening programme among illicit drug users and homeless persons with truncated models

Truncated models are indirect methods to estimate the size of a hidden population which, in contrast to the capture-recapture method, can be used on a single information source. We estimated the coverage of a tuberculosis screening programme among illicit drug users and homeless persons with a mobile digital X-ray unit between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2005 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, using truncated models. The screening programme reached about two-third of the estimated target population at least once annually. The intended coverage (at least two chest X-rays per person per year) was about 23%. We conclude that simple truncated models can be used relatively easily on available single-source routine data to estimate the size of a population of illicit drug users and homeless persons. We assumed that the most likely overall bias in this study would be overestimation and therefore the coverage of the targeted mobile tuberculosis screening programme would be higher.

Psychological treatments of subthreshold depression: a meta-analytic review

OBJECTIVE

Subthreshold depression has a considerable impact on the quality of life and carries a high risk of developing major depressive disorder. Psychological treatments for subthreshold depression may be able to reduce depressive symptomatology and prevent the onset of major depression.

METHOD

We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies examining the effects of psychological treatments for subthreshold depression. We examined the effects on depressive symptoms and the preventive effects on the incidence of major depression.

RESULTS

Seven high-quality studies with a total of 700 subjects were included. The mean effect size at post-test was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.23-0.60), with very low heterogeneity. The relative risk of developing a major depressive disorder in subjects who received the intervention was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.47-1.03; P = 0.07).

CONCLUSION

Psychological treatments have significant effects on subthreshold depression. Furthermore, these interventions may prevent the onset of major depression.

Estimating infectious diseases incidence: validity of capture-recapture analysis and truncated models for incomplete count data

Capture-recapture analysis has been used to evaluate infectious disease surveillance. Violation of the underlying assumptions can jeopardize the validity of the capture-recapture estimates and a tool is needed for cross-validation. We re-examined 19 datasets of log-linear model capture-recapture studies on infectious disease incidence using three truncated models for incomplete count data as alternative population estimators. The truncated models yield comparable estimates to independent log-linear capture-recapture models and to parsimonious log-linear models when the number of patients is limited, or the ratio between patients registered once and twice is between 0.5 and 1.5. Compared to saturated log-linear models the truncated models produce considerably lower and often more plausible estimates. We conclude that for estimating infectious disease incidence independent and parsimonious three-source log-linear capture-recapture models are preferable but truncated models can be used as a heuristic tool to identify possible failure in log-linear models, especially when saturated log-linear models are selected.