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Fernandez-Palomino CA, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Vega-Jácome F, Menz C, Gleixner S, Bronstert A. High-resolution climate projection dataset based on CMIP6 for Peru and Ecuador: BASD-CMIP6-PE. Sci Data 2024; 11:34. [PMID: 38182605 PMCID: PMC10770365 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02863-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Accepted: 12/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Here, we present BASD-CMIP6-PE, a high-resolution (1d, 10 km) climate dataset for Peru and Ecuador based on the bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections of 10 GCMs. This dataset includes both historical simulations (1850-2014) and future projections (2015-2100) for precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The BASD-CMIP6-PE climate data were generated using the trend-preserving Bias Adjustment and Statistical Downscaling (BASD) method. The BASD performance was evaluated using observational data and through hydrological modeling across Peruvian and Ecuadorian river basins in the historical period. Results demonstrated that BASD significantly reduced biases between CMIP6-GCM simulations and observational data, enhancing long-term statistical representations, including mean and extreme values, and seasonal patterns. Furthermore, the hydrological evaluation highlighted the appropriateness of adjusted GCM simulations for simulating streamflow, including mean, low, and high flows. These findings underscore the reliability of BASD-CMIP6-PE in assessing regional climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, and hydrological extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Antonio Fernandez-Palomino
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany.
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Fred F Hattermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Valentina Krysanova
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Fiorella Vega-Jácome
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Christoph Menz
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Stephanie Gleixner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Axel Bronstert
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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Drews M, Steinhausen M, Larsen MAD, Dømgaard ML, Huszti L, Rácz T, Wortmann M, Hattermann FF, Schröter K. The utility of using Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) for evaluating pluvial flood models. Sci Total Environ 2023:164962. [PMID: 37336393 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2022] [Revised: 06/11/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/21/2023]
Abstract
Pluvial floods are increasingly threatening urban environments worldwide due to human-induced climate change. High-resolution, state-of-the-art pluvial flood models are urgently needed to inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures but are generally not empirically tested because of the rarity of local high-intensity precipitation events and the lack of monitoring capabilities. Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) collected by professionals, non-professionals and citizens and made available on the internet can be used to monitor the dynamic extent of a pluvial flood during and after an extreme rain event but is sometimes considered to be unreliable. In this paper, we explore the general utility of VGI to evaluate the performance of pluvial flood models and gain new insights to improve these models. As background for our research, we use the capital city of Budapest, which recently suffered three heavy rainfall events in just five years (2015, 2017 and 2020). For each pluvial flood event, we collected photographic evidence from different online media sources and estimated the associated water depths at various locations in the city from the image context. These were compared with the results of a 2D pluvial flood model that has been shown to provide comparable results to other state-of-the-art inundation models and is easily transferred to other urban areas due to its reliance on open data sources. We introduce a general methodology for comparing VGI with model data by probing different spatial resolutions. Our findings highlight untapped potential and fundamental challenges in using VGI for model evaluation. It is proposed that VGI may become an essential tool and improve the confidence in model-based risk assessments for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Drews
- Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby DK-2800, Denmark.
| | - Max Steinhausen
- German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Section Hydrology, Potsdam D-14473, Germany; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Division of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig D-38106, Germany
| | - Morten A D Larsen
- Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby DK-2800, Denmark; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen D-2100, Denmark
| | - Mads L Dømgaard
- Department of Geoscience and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen DK-1350, Denmark
| | - Levente Huszti
- National University of Public Service, Budapest H-1083, Hungary
| | - Tibor Rácz
- Department of Water Management and Climate Adaptation, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Gödöllő 2100, Hungary
| | | | - Fred F Hattermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam D-14473, Germany
| | - Kai Schröter
- German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Section Hydrology, Potsdam D-14473, Germany; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Division of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig D-38106, Germany
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Fallah B, Russo E, Menz C, Hoffmann P, Didovets I, Hattermann FF. Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Asia. Sci Rep 2023; 13:6854. [PMID: 37100878 PMCID: PMC10133278 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-33921-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023] Open
Abstract
We investigate the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the extreme temperature and precipitation events in Central Asia (CA) during the last 60 years. We bias-adjust and downscale two Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) ensemble outputs, with natural (labelled as hist-nat, driven only by solar and volcanic forcing) and natural plus anthropogenic forcing (labelled as hist, driven by all-forcings), to [Formula: see text] spatial resolution. Each ensemble contains six models from ISIMIP, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The presented downscaling methodology is necessary to create a reliable climate state for regional climate impact studies. Our analysis shows a higher risk of extreme heat events (factor 4 in signal-to-noise ratio) over large parts of CA due to anthropogenic influence. Furthermore, a higher likelihood of extreme precipitation over CA, especially over Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing (over 100[Formula: see text] changes in intensity and 20[Formula: see text] in frequency). Given that these regions show a high risk of rainfall-triggered landslides and floods during historical times, we report that human-induced climate warming can contribute to extreme precipitation events over vulnerable areas of CA. Our high-resolution data set can be used in impact studies focusing on the attribution of extreme events in CA and is freely available to the scientific community.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bijan Fallah
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany.
| | - Emmanuele Russo
- Institute for atmospheric and climate science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Christoph Menz
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany
| | - Peter Hoffmann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany
| | - Iulii Didovets
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany
| | - Fred F Hattermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany
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Hoffmann P, Lehmann J, Fallah B, Hattermann FF. Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks. Sci Rep 2021; 11:22893. [PMID: 34819545 PMCID: PMC8613183 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-01808-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood and there is a need for improved methodologies to detect and quantify persistent weather conditions. Here, we propose a new method to detect, compare and quantify persistence through atmosphere similarity patterns by applying established image recognition methods to day to day atmospheric fields. We find that persistent weather patterns have increased in number and intensity over the last decades in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer, link this to hydro-climatic risks and evaluate the extreme summers of 2010 (Russian heat wave) and of 2018 (European drought). We further evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce long-term trend patterns of weather persistence and the result is a notable discrepancy to observed developments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Hoffmann
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Climate Resilience, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Jascha Lehmann
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Climate Resilience, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Bijan Fallah
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Climate Resilience, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Fred F Hattermann
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Climate Resilience, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
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König HJ, Graef F, Schindler J, Fasse A, Mutabazi KD, Lambert C, Ngwenya P, Uckert G, Mahoo H, Hattermann FF, Sieber S. Combining participatory, qualitative and quantitative methods for impact assessment of food value chains into an integrated framework. Food Secur 2017. [DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0739-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Aich V, Liersch S, Vetter T, Fournet S, Andersson JCM, Calmanti S, van Weert FHA, Hattermann FF, Paton EN. Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change. Sci Total Environ 2016; 562:666-677. [PMID: 27110979 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2015] [Revised: 04/04/2016] [Accepted: 04/04/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valentin Aich
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Stefan Liersch
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Tobias Vetter
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Samuel Fournet
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jafet C M Andersson
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden.
| | - Sandro Calmanti
- Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia Via Anguillarese 301, I-00123 Roma, Italy.
| | - Frank H A van Weert
- Wetlands International (WI), P.O. Box 471, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands.
| | - Fred F Hattermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Eva N Paton
- Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Ernst-Reuter-Platz 1, 10587 Berlin, Germany.
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Abstract
In this paper the integration of water resources management with regard to reservoir management in an eco-hydrological model is described. The model was designed to simulate different reservoir management options, such as optimized hydropower production, irrigation intake from the reservoir or optimized provisioning downstream. The integrated model can be used to investigate the impacts of climate variability/change on discharge or to study possible adaptation strategies in terms of reservoir management. The study area, the Upper Niger Basin located in the West African Sahel, is characterized by a monsoon-type climate. Rainfall and discharge regime are subject to strong seasonality. Measured data from a reservoir are used to show that the reservoir model and the integrated management options can be used to simulate the regulation of this reservoir. The inflow into the reservoir and the discharge downstream of the reservoir are quite distinctive, which points out the importance of the inclusion of water resources management.
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Affiliation(s)
- H Koch
- Department Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
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Hesse C, Krysanova V, Päzolt J, Hattermann FF. Eco-hydrological modelling in a highly regulated lowland catchment to find measures for improving water quality. Ecol Modell 2008. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.06.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
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