High-resolution climate projection dataset based on CMIP6 for Peru and Ecuador: BASD-CMIP6-PE

Here, we present BASD-CMIP6-PE, a high-resolution (1d, 10 km) climate dataset for Peru and Ecuador based on the bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections of 10 GCMs. This dataset includes both historical simulations (1850-2014) and future projections (2015-2100) for precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The BASD-CMIP6-PE climate data were generated using the trend-preserving Bias Adjustment and Statistical Downscaling (BASD) method. The BASD performance was evaluated using observational data and through hydrological modeling across Peruvian and Ecuadorian river basins in the historical period. Results demonstrated that BASD significantly reduced biases between CMIP6-GCM simulations and observational data, enhancing long-term statistical representations, including mean and extreme values, and seasonal patterns. Furthermore, the hydrological evaluation highlighted the appropriateness of adjusted GCM simulations for simulating streamflow, including mean, low, and high flows. These findings underscore the reliability of BASD-CMIP6-PE in assessing regional climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, and hydrological extremes.

AB0999 Osteoarthritis. Pharmacoeconomics aspects of symptom-modifying therapy in real clinical practice

Background

Treatment of osteoarthritis (OA) is a significant medical and social problem worldwide. Modern therapeutic approaches include a combination of pharmacological and non-pharmacological methods aimed at reducing pain, improving joint function, and preventing disease progression. A wide variety of symptomatic slow-acting drugs for osteoarthritis and their usage dictate the necessity for a clinical and economic analysis to select the most economically feasible treatment regimen for OA.

Objectives

To conduct a clinical and economic assessment of OA therapy using drugs of the SYSADOA group.

Methods

The search for publications for the period 2011-2022 on the clinical efficacy and safety of SYSADOA (bioactive concentrate of small marine fish containing chondroitin sulfate, amino acids, peptides, sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, iron, copper and zinc ions) was conducted using available sources (Medline, eLIBRARY.ru). The research selection methodology was in compliance with the PRISMA criteria(Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analysis), 124 sources were analyzed. To collect data on the costs for managing patients in real clinical practice, a survey of 15 rheumatology experts was conducted with an assessment of the frequency and average duration of SYSADOA drugs usage. The direct medical costs paid from budgetary funds and/or funds of the compulsory medical insurance system related to the treatment of OA were assessed. Cost minimization analysis was carried out for 10 SYSADOA drugs; the average course cost of treatment was calculated according to the dosage regimens and duration of admission, as well as the cost of providing medical services.

Results

Analysis of the literature data showed that bioactive concentrate of small marine fish, produced by Biotehnos S.A. is a modern original SYSADOA for the initial therapy of knee joint OA with proven efficacy and safety. The estimated course cost of SYSADOA therapy ranges from 36.961 to 92 euros. The median exchange rate of all drugs in the sample was 50.2 euros; for SYSADOA drugs with oral administration - 85.82 euros; injectable drugs - 47.76 euros. The median amount of direct costs for injectable SYSADOA was 388,012 euros. Cost minimization analysis showed that the use of an alternating mode of administration of the drug (2 ml every other day intramuscularly - 10 injections) in patients with knee joint OA is the most cost-effective method for the treatment of OA and allows to reduce direct costs up to 64% per patient by reducing the number of medical services provided.

Conclusion

The analysis proved rationality of the established medical practice in prescribing of the injectable SYSADOA (bioactive concentrate of small marine fish was a leader among injectable SYSADOA according to HWC and IQVIA marketing analytical data for the period 2020-2021). Choosing the most economically feasible drug for the treatment of patients with OA will reduce the costs of the healthcare system and reduce the overall economic burden of OA.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Four European Lagoon Catchments

This study demonstrates the importance of considering potential land use and management changes in climate impact research. By taking into account possible trends of economic development and environmental awareness, we assess effects of global warming on water availability and quality in the catchments of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), Mar Menor (Spain), Vistula Lagoon (Poland and Russia), and Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine). Different setups of the process-based soil and water integrated model (SWIM), representing one reference and four socio-economic scenarios for each study area: the "business as usual", "crisis", "managed horizons", and "set-aside" scenarios are driven by sets of 15 climate scenarios for a reference (1971-2000) and near future (2011-2040) scenario period. Modeling results suggest a large spatial variability of potential impacts across the study areas, due to differences in the projected precipitation trends and the current environmental and socio-economic conditions. While climate change may reduce water and nutrients input to the Ria de Aveiro and Tyligulsyi Liman and increase water inflow to the Vistula Lagoon the socio-economic scenarios and their implications may balance out or reverse these trends. In the intensely managed Mar Menor catchment, climate change has no notable direct impact on water resources, but changes in land use and water management may certainly aggravate the current environmental problems. The great heterogeneity among results does not allow formulating adaptation or mitigation measures at pan-European level, as initially intended by this study. It rather implies the need of a regional approach in coastal zone management.