Performance of the IMPACT and CRASH prognostic models for traumatic brain injury in a contemporary multicenter cohort: a TRACK-TBI study

OBJECTIVE

The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) and Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) prognostic models for mortality and outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) were developed using data from 1984 to 2004. This study examined IMPACT and CRASH model performances in a contemporary cohort of US patients.

METHODS

The prospective 18-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) study (enrollment years 2014-2018) enrolled subjects aged ≥ 17 years who presented to level I trauma centers and received head CT within 24 hours of TBI. Data were extracted from the subjects who met the model criteria (for IMPACT, Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score 3-12 with 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended [GOSE] data [n = 441]; for CRASH, GCS score 3-14 with 2-week mortality data and 6-month GOSE data [n = 831]). Analyses were conducted in the overall cohort and stratified on the basis of TBI severity (severe/moderate/mild TBI defined as GCS score 3-8/9-12/13-14), age (17-64 years or ≥ 65 years), and the 5 top enrolling sites. Unfavorable outcome was defined as GOSE score 1-4. Original IMPACT and CRASH model coefficients were applied, and model performances were assessed by calibration (intercept [< 0 indicated overprediction; > 0 indicated underprediction] and slope) and discrimination (c-statistic).

RESULTS

Overall, the IMPACT models overpredicted mortality (intercept -0.79 [95% CI -1.05 to -0.53], slope 1.37 [1.05-1.69]) and acceptably predicted unfavorable outcome (intercept 0.07 [-0.14 to 0.29], slope 1.19 [0.96-1.42]), with good discrimination (c-statistics 0.84 and 0.83, respectively). The CRASH models overpredicted mortality (intercept -1.06 [-1.36 to -0.75], slope 0.96 [0.79-1.14]) and unfavorable outcome (intercept -0.60 [-0.78 to -0.41], slope 1.20 [1.03-1.37]), with good discrimination (c-statistics 0.92 and 0.88, respectively). IMPACT overpredicted mortality and acceptably predicted unfavorable outcome in the severe and moderate TBI subgroups, with good discrimination (c-statistic ≥ 0.81). CRASH overpredicted mortality in the severe and moderate TBI subgroups and acceptably predicted mortality in the mild TBI subgroup, with good discrimination (c-statistic ≥ 0.86); unfavorable outcome was overpredicted in the severe and mild TBI subgroups with adequate discrimination (c-statistic ≥ 0.78), whereas calibration was nonlinear in the moderate TBI subgroup. In subjects ≥ 65 years of age, the models performed variably (IMPACT-mortality, intercept 0.28, slope 0.68, and c-statistic 0.68; CRASH-unfavorable outcome, intercept -0.97, slope 1.32, and c-statistic 0.88; nonlinear calibration for IMPACT-unfavorable outcome and CRASH-mortality). Model performance differences were observed across the top enrolling sites for mortality and unfavorable outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

The IMPACT and CRASH models adequately discriminated mortality and unfavorable outcome. Observed overestimations of mortality and unfavorable outcome underscore the need to update prognostic models to incorporate contemporary changes in TBI management and case-mix. Investigations to elucidate the relationships between increased survival, outcome, treatment intensity, and site-specific practices will be relevant to improve models in specific TBI subpopulations (e.g., older adults), which may benefit from the inclusion of blood-based biomarkers, neuroimaging features, and treatment data.

Isolated Traumatic Subarachnoid Hemorrhage on Head Computed Tomography Scan May Not Be Isolated: A TRACK-TBI Study

Isolated traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (tSAH) after traumatic brain injury (TBI) on head computed tomography (CT) scan is often regarded as a "mild" injury, with reduced need for additional workup. However, tSAH is also a predictor of incomplete recovery and unfavorable outcome. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of CT-occult intracranial injuries on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan in TBI patients with emergency department (ED) arrival Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score 13-15 and isolated tSAH on CT. The prospective, 18-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Study (TRACK-TBI; enrollment years 2014-2019) enrolled participants who presented to the ED and received a clinically-indicated head CT within 24 hours (h) of TBI. A subset of TRACK-TBI participants underwent venipuncture within 24h for plasma glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) analysis, and research MRI at 2-weeks post-injury. In the current study, TRACK-TBI participants aged ≥17 years with ED arrival GCS 13-15, isolated tSAH on initial head CT, plasma GFAP level, and 2-week MRI data were analyzed. In 57 participants, median age was 46.0 years [quartile 1 to 3 (Q1-Q3): 34-57] and 52.6% were male. At ED disposition, 12.3% were discharged home, 61.4% were admitted to hospital ward, and 26.3% to intensive care unit. MRI identified CT-occult traumatic intracranial lesions in 45.6% (26 of 57 participants; 1 additional lesion type: 31.6%; 2 additional lesion types: 14.0%); of these 26 participants with CT-occult intracranial lesions, 65.4% had axonal injury, 42.3% had subdural hematoma, and 23.1% had intracerebral contusion. GFAP levels were higher in participants with CT-occult MRI lesions compared to without (median: 630.6 pg/ml, Q1-Q3: [172.4-941.2] vs. 226.4 [105.8-436.1], p=0.049), and were associated with axonal injury (no: median 226.7 pg/ml [109.6-435.1], yes: 828.6 pg/ml [204.0-1194.3], p=0.009). Our results indicate that isolated tSAH on head CT is often not the sole intracranial traumatic injury in GCS 13-15 TBI. Forty-six percent of patients in our cohort (26 of 57 participants) had additional CT-occult traumatic lesions on MRI. Plasma GFAP may be an important biomarker for the identification of additional CT-occult injuries, including axonal injury. These findings should be interpreted cautiously given our modest sample size and await validation from larger studies.

Longitudinal Recovery Following Repetitive Traumatic Brain Injury

Importance

One traumatic brain injury (TBI) increases the risk of subsequent TBIs. Research on longitudinal outcomes of civilian repetitive TBIs is limited.

Objective

To investigate associations between sustaining 1 or more TBIs (ie, postindex TBIs) after study enrollment (ie, index TBIs) and multidimensional outcomes at 1 year and 3 to 7 years.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included participants presenting to emergency departments enrolled within 24 hours of TBI in the prospective, 18-center Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) study (enrollment years, February 2014 to July 2020). Participants who completed outcome assessments at 1 year and 3 to 7 years were included. Data were analyzed from September 2022 to August 2023.

Exposures

Postindex TBI(s).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Demographic and clinical factors, prior TBI (ie, preindex TBI), and functional (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended [GOSE]), postconcussive (Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire [RPQ]), psychological distress (Brief Symptom Inventory-18 [BSI-18]), depressive (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9]), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD; PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 [PCL-5]), and health-related quality-of-life (Quality of Life After Brain Injury-Overall Scale [QOLIBRI-OS]) outcomes were assessed. Adjusted mean differences (aMDs) and adjusted relative risks are reported with 95% CIs.

Results

Of 2417 TRACK-TBI participants, 1572 completed the outcomes assessment at 1 year (1049 [66.7%] male; mean [SD] age, 41.6 [17.5] years) and 1084 completed the outcomes assessment at 3 to 7 years (714 [65.9%] male; mean [SD] age, 40.6 [17.0] years). At 1 year, a total of 60 participants (4%) were Asian, 255 (16%) were Black, 1213 (77%) were White, 39 (2%) were another race, and 5 (0.3%) had unknown race. At 3 to 7 years, 39 (4%) were Asian, 149 (14%) were Black, 868 (80%) were White, 26 (2%) had another race, and 2 (0.2%) had unknown race. A total of 50 (3.2%) and 132 (12.2%) reported 1 or more postindex TBIs at 1 year and 3 to 7 years, respectively. Risk factors for postindex TBI were psychiatric history, preindex TBI, and extracranial injury severity. At 1 year, compared with those without postindex TBI, participants with postindex TBI had worse functional recovery (GOSE score of 8: adjusted relative risk, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.34-0.96) and health-related quality of life (QOLIBRI-OS: aMD, -15.9; 95% CI, -22.6 to -9.1), and greater postconcussive symptoms (RPQ: aMD, 8.1; 95% CI, 4.2-11.9), psychological distress symptoms (BSI-18: aMD, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.1-8.6), depression symptoms (PHQ-9: aMD, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.5-4.4), and PTSD symptoms (PCL-5: aMD, 7.8; 95% CI, 3.2-12.4). At 3 to 7 years, these associations remained statistically significant. Multiple (2 or more) postindex TBIs were associated with poorer outcomes across all domains.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of patients with acute TBI, postindex TBI was associated with worse symptomatology across outcome domains at 1 year and 3 to 7 years postinjury, and there was a dose-dependent response with multiple postindex TBIs. These results underscore the critical need to provide TBI prevention, education, counseling, and follow-up care to at-risk patients.

Neuroworsening in the Emergency Department Is a Predictor of Traumatic Brain Injury Intervention and Outcome: A TRACK-TBI Pilot Study

INTRODUCTION

Neuroworsening may be a sign of progressive brain injury and is a factor for treatment of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in intensive care settings. The implications of neuroworsening for clinical management and long-term sequelae of TBI in the emergency department (ED) require characterization.

METHODS

Adult TBI subjects from the prospective Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot Study with ED admission and disposition Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores were extracted. All patients received head computed tomography (CT) scan <24 h post-injury. Neuroworsening was defined as a decline in motor GCS at ED disposition (vs. ED admission). Clinical and CT characteristics, neurosurgical intervention, in-hospital mortality, and 3- and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) scores were compared by neuroworsening status. Multivariable regressions were performed for neurosurgical intervention and unfavorable outcome (GOS-E ≤ 3). Multivariable odds ratios (mOR) with [95% confidence intervals] were reported.

RESULTS

In 481 subjects, 91.1% had ED admission GCS 13-15 and 3.3% had neuroworsening. All neuroworsening subjects were admitted to intensive care unit (vs. non-neuroworsening: 26.2%) and were CT-positive for structural injury (vs. 45.4%). Neuroworsening was associated with subdural (75.0%/22.2%), subarachnoid (81.3%/31.2%), and intraventricular hemorrhage (18.8%/2.2%), contusion (68.8%/20.4%), midline shift (50.0%/2.6%), cisternal compression (56.3%/5.6%), and cerebral edema (68.8%/12.3%; all p < 0.001). Neuroworsening subjects had higher likelihoods of cranial surgery (56.3%/3.5%), intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring (62.5%/2.6%), in-hospital mortality (37.5%/0.6%), and unfavorable 3- and 6-month outcome (58.3%/4.9%; 53.8%/6.2%; all p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, neuroworsening predicted surgery (mOR = 4.65 [1.02-21.19]), ICP monitoring (mOR = 15.48 [2.92-81.85], and unfavorable 3- and 6-month outcome (mOR = 5.36 [1.13-25.36]; mOR = 5.68 [1.18-27.35]).

CONCLUSIONS

Neuroworsening in the ED is an early indicator of TBI severity, and a predictor of neurosurgical intervention and unfavorable outcome. Clinicians must be vigilant in detecting neuroworsening, as affected patients are at increased risk for poor outcomes and may benefit from immediate therapeutic interventions.

Polytrauma Is Associated with Increased Three- and Six-Month Disability after Traumatic Brain Injury: A TRACK-TBI Pilot Study

Polytrauma and traumatic brain injury (TBI) frequently co-occur and outcomes are routinely measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE). Polytrauma may confound GOSE measurement of TBI-specific outcomes. Adult patients with TBI from the prospective Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot (TRACK-TBI Pilot) study had presented to a Level 1 trauma center after injury, received head computed tomography (CT) within 24 h, and completed the GOSE at 3 months and 6 months post-injury. Polytrauma was defined as an Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) ≥3 in any extracranial region.

Univariate regressions were performed using known GOSE clinical cutoffs. Multi-variable regressions were performed for the 3- and 6-month GOSE, controlling for known demographic and injury predictors. Of 361 subjects (age 44.9 ± 18.9 years, 69.8% male), 69 (19.1%) suffered polytrauma. By Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) assessment, 80.1% had mild, 5.8% moderate, and 14.1% severe TBI. On univariate logistic regression, polytrauma was associated with increased odds of moderate disability or worse (GOSE ≤6; 3 month odds ratio [OR] = 2.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.50-4.41; 6 month OR = 1.70 [95% CI: 1.01-2.88]) and death/severe disability (GOSE ≤4; 3 month OR = 3.80 [95% CI: 2.03-7.11]; 6 month OR = 3.33 [95% CI: 1.71-6.46]). Compared with patients with isolated TBI, more polytrauma patients experienced a decline in GOSE from 3 to 6 months (37.7 vs. 24.7%), and fewer improved (11.6 vs. 22.6%). Polytrauma was associated with greater univariate ordinal odds for poorer GOSE (3 month OR = 2.79 [95% CI: 1.73-4.49]; 6 month OR = 1.73 [95% CI: 1.07-2.79]), which was conserved on multi-variable ordinal regression (3 month OR = 3.05 [95% CI: 1.76-5.26]; 6 month OR = 2.04 [95% CI: 1.18-3.42]). Patients with TBI with polytrauma are at greater risk for 3- and 6-month disability compared with those with isolated TBI. Methodological improvements in assessing TBI-specific disability, versus disability attributable to all systemic injuries, will generate better TBI outcomes assessment tools.

Apolipoprotein E epsilon 4 (APOE-ε4) genotype is associated with decreased 6-month verbal memory performance after mild traumatic brain injury

INTRODUCTION

The apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele associates with memory impairment in neurodegenerative diseases. Its association with memory after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) is unclear.

METHODS

mTBI patients (Glasgow Coma Scale score 13-15, no neurosurgical intervention, extracranial Abbreviated Injury Scale score ≤1) aged ≥18 years with APOE genotyping results were extracted from the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot (TRACK-TBI Pilot) study. Cohorts determined by APOE-ε4(+/-) were assessed for associations with 6-month verbal memory, measured by California Verbal Learning Test, Second Edition (CVLT-II) subscales: Immediate Recall Trials 1-5 (IRT), Short-Delay Free Recall (SDFR), Short-Delay Cued Recall (SDCR), Long-Delay Free Recall (LDFR), and Long-Delay Cued Recall (LDCR). Multivariable regression controlled for demographic factors, seizure history, loss of consciousness, posttraumatic amnesia, and acute intracranial pathology on computed tomography (CT).

RESULTS

In 114 mTBI patients (APOE-ε4(-)=79; APOE-ε4(+)=35), ApoE-ε4(+) was associated with long-delay verbal memory deficits (LDFR: B = -1.17 points, 95% CI [-2.33, -0.01], p = .049; LDCR: B = -1.58 [-2.63, -0.52], p = .004), and a marginal decrease on SDCR (B = -1.02 [-2.05, 0.00], p = .050). CT pathology was the strongest predictor of decreased verbal memory (IRT: B = -8.49, SDFR: B = -2.50, SDCR: B = -1.85, LDFR: B = -2.61, LDCR: B = -2.60; p < .001). Seizure history was associated with decreased short-term memory (SDFR: B = -1.32, p = .037; SDCR: B = -1.44, p = .038).

CONCLUSION

The APOE-ε4 allele may confer an increased risk of impairment of 6-month verbal memory for patients suffering mTBI, with implications for heightened surveillance and targeted therapies. Acute intracranial pathology remains the driver of decreased verbal memory performance at 6 months after mTBI.

COMT Val 158 Met polymorphism is associated with nonverbal cognition following mild traumatic brain injury

Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) results in variable clinical outcomes, which may be influenced by genetic variation. A single-nucleotide polymorphism in catechol-o-methyltransferase (COMT), an enzyme which degrades catecholamine neurotransmitters, may influence cognitive deficits following moderate and/or severe head trauma. However, this has been disputed, and its role in mTBI has not been studied. Here, we utilize the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot (TRACK-TBI Pilot) study to investigate whether the COMT Val (158) Met polymorphism influences outcome on a cognitive battery 6 months following mTBI--Wechsler Adult Intelligence Test Processing Speed Index Composite Score (WAIS-PSI), Trail Making Test (TMT) Trail B minus Trail A time, and California Verbal Learning Test, Second Edition Trial 1-5 Standard Score (CVLT-II). All patients had an emergency department Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 13-15, no acute intracranial pathology on head CT, and no polytrauma as defined by an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score of ≥3 in any extracranial region. Results in 100 subjects aged 40.9 (SD 15.2) years (COMT Met (158) /Met (158) 29 %, Met (158) /Val (158) 47 %, Val (158) /Val (158) 24 %) show that the COMT Met (158) allele (mean 101.6 ± SE 2.1) associates with higher nonverbal processing speed on the WAIS-PSI when compared to Val (158) /Val (158) homozygotes (93.8 ± SE 3.0) after controlling for demographics and injury severity (mean increase 7.9 points, 95 % CI [1.4 to 14.3], p = 0.017). The COMT Val (158) Met polymorphism did not associate with mental flexibility on the TMT or with verbal learning on the CVLT-II. Hence, COMT Val (158) Met may preferentially modulate nonverbal cognition following uncomplicated mTBI.Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01565551.