Sex variation in colorectal cancer mortality: trends and implications for screening

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening using faecal tests reduces disease-specific mortality. To investigate mortality and its association with sex, rates in women and men, and in different age ranges, were examined, before and after screening began in Scotland.

METHODS

From 1990-99, no structured screening existed. Three pilots ran from 2000 to 2007 and subsequent full roll-out completed in 2009. Crude mortality rates for 1990-2020 were calculated relative to Scottish population estimates, and age-sex standardized rates calculated for all, pre-screening (<50 years), screening (5-74 years) and post-screening (>74 years) age ranges.

RESULTS

CRC mortality declined from 1990 to 2020, but not linearly, and differed between sexes. In women, 1990-99 showed a steady decline [average annual percentage change (AAPC): -2.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI): -2.8% to -1.4%], but a less marked decline after 2000 (AAPC: -0.7%, 95% CI: -0.9% to -0.4%). In men, no clear decline was seen from 1990 to 1999 (AAPC: -0.4%, 95% CI: -1.1% to 0.4%), but mortality declined from 2000 to 2020 (AAPC: -1.7%, 95% CI: -1.9% to -1.5%). This pattern was exaggerated in the screening age ranges. For 2000-20, the overall reduction in mortality was less in women and in the screening age range. In the post-screening age range, reductions were smaller, but an increase was seen in the pre-screening age range, greater in women.

CONCLUSIONS

CRC mortality fell during 1990-2020, but the decline differed markedly between sexes, indicating a larger beneficial effect of screening on CRC mortality in men compared to women: use of different thresholds for the sexes might lead to equality.

Risk factors and prognostic implications of diagnosis of cancer within 30 days after an emergency hospital admission (emergency presentation): an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study

BACKGROUND

Greater understanding of international cancer survival differences is needed. We aimed to identify predictors and consequences of cancer diagnosis through emergency presentation in different international jurisdictions in six high-income countries.

METHODS

Using a federated analysis model, in this cross-sectional population-based study, we analysed cancer registration and linked hospital admissions data from 14 jurisdictions in six countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK), including patients with primary diagnosis of invasive oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer during study periods from Jan 1, 2012, to Dec 31, 2017. Data were collected on cancer site, age group, sex, year of diagnosis, and stage at diagnosis. Emergency presentation was defined as diagnosis of cancer within 30 days after an emergency hospital admission. Using logistic regression, we examined variables associated with emergency presentation and associations between emergency presentation and short-term mortality. We meta-analysed estimates across jurisdictions and explored jurisdiction-level associations between cancer survival and the percentage of patients diagnosed as emergencies.

FINDINGS

In 857 068 patients across 14 jurisdictions, considering all of the eight cancer sites together, the percentage of diagnoses through emergency presentation ranged from 24·0% (9165 of 38 212 patients) to 42·5% (12 238 of 28 794 patients). There was consistently large variation in the percentage of emergency presentations by cancer site across jurisdictions. Pancreatic cancer diagnoses had the highest percentage of emergency presentations on average overall (46·1% [30 972 of 67 173 patients]), with the jurisdictional range being 34·1% (1083 of 3172 patients) to 60·4% (1317 of 2182 patients). Rectal cancer had the lowest percentage of emergency presentations on average overall (12·1% [10 051 of 83 325 patients]), with a jurisdictional range of 9·1% (403 of 4438 patients) to 19·8% (643 of 3247 patients). Across the jurisdictions, older age (ie, 75-84 years and 85 years or older, compared with younger patients) and advanced stage at diagnosis compared with non-advanced stage were consistently associated with increased emergency presentation risk, with the percentage of emergency presentations being highest in the oldest age group (85 years or older) for 110 (98%) of 112 jurisdiction-cancer site strata, and in the most advanced (distant spread) stage category for 98 (97%) of 101 jurisdiction-cancer site strata with available information. Across the jurisdictions, and despite heterogeneity in association size (I2=93%), emergency presenters consistently had substantially greater risk of 12-month mortality than non-emergency presenters (odds ratio >1·9 for 112 [100%] of 112 jurisdiction-cancer site strata, with the minimum lower bound of the related 95% CIs being 1·26). There were negative associations between jurisdiction-level percentage of emergency presentations and jurisdiction-level 1-year survival for colon, stomach, lung, liver, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer, with a 10% increase in percentage of emergency presentations in a jurisdiction being associated with a decrease in 1-year net survival of between 2·5% (95% CI 0·28-4·7) and 7·0% (1·2-13·0).

INTERPRETATION

Internationally, notable proportions of patients with cancer are diagnosed through emergency presentation. Specific types of cancer, older age, and advanced stage at diagnosis are consistently associated with an increased risk of emergency presentation, which strongly predicts worse prognosis and probably contributes to international differences in cancer survival. Monitoring emergency presentations, and identifying and acting on contributing behavioural and health-care factors, is a global priority for cancer control.

FUNDING

Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; the Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.

COVID-19 and cancer screening in Scotland: A national and coordinated approach to minimising harm

Screening is an important component of cancer control internationally. In Scotland, the National Health Service Scotland provides screening programmes for cervical, bowel and breast cancers. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the suspension of these programmes in March 2020. We describe the integrated approach to managing the impact of the pandemic on cancer screening programmes in Scotland throughout 2020. We outline the policy context and decision-making process leading to suspension, and the criteria and framework informing the subsequent, staggered, restart in subsequent months. The decision to suspend screening services in order to protect screening invitees and staff, and manage NHS capacity, was made after review of numbers of screening participants likely to be affected, and the potential number of delayed cancer diagnoses. Restart principles and a detailed route map plan were developed for each programme, seeking to ensure broad consistency of approach across the programmes and nationally. Early data indicates bowel, breast and cervical screening participation has increased since restart. Primary care has had to adapt to new infection prevention control measures for delivery of cervical screening. Cancer charities provided cancer intelligence and policy briefs to national bodies and Scottish Government, as well as supporting the public, patients and screening invitees through information and awareness campaigns. Emerging from the pandemic, there is recognition of the need and the opportunity to transform and renew both cancer and screening services in Scotland, and in particular to address long-standing workforce capacity problems through innovation and investment, and to continue to prioritise addressing health inequalities.

Faecal haemoglobin distributions by sex, age, deprivation and geographical region: consequences for colorectal cancer screening strategies

Objectives Faecal immunochemical tests for haemoglobin (FIT) are becoming widely used in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and assessment of symptomatic patients. Faecal haemoglobin concentration (f-Hb) thresholds are used to guide subsequent investigation. We established the distributions of f-Hb in a large screening population by sex, age, deprivation and geography. Methods Single estimates of f-Hb were documented for all individuals participating in the first 18 months of the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme (SBoSP). The distributions of f-Hb were generated for all participants, all men and women, and men and women by age quintile and deprivation quintile. Distributions were also generated by geographical region for all participants, men and women, and by deprivation. Comparisons of f-Hb distributions with those found in a pilot evaluation of FIT and three other countries were performed. Results f-Hb was documented for 887,248 screening participants, 422,385 men and 464,863 women. f-Hb varied by sex, age, deprivation quintile and geographical region. The f-Hb distributions by sex and age differed between the SBoSP and the pilot evaluation and the three other countries. Conclusions f-Hb is higher in men than in women and increases with age and deprivation in both sexes. f-Hb also varies by geographical region, independently of deprivation, and by country. The f-Hb distribution estimated by pilot evaluation may not represent the population distribution. Decision limits have advantages over reference intervals. Use of partitioned f-Hb thresholds for further investigation, based on the data generated, has advantages and disadvantages, as do risk scores based on a spectrum of influencing variables.