Risk factors for disease severity among children with Covid-19: a clinical prediction model

BACKGROUND

Children account for a significant proportion of COVID-19 hospitalizations, but data on the predictors of disease severity in children are limited. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with moderate/severe COVID-19 and develop a nomogram for predicting children with moderate/severe COVID-19.

METHODS

We identified children ≤ 12 years old hospitalized for COVID-19 across five hospitals in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2021 from the state's pediatric COVID-19 case registration system. The primary outcome was the development of moderate/severe COVID-19 during hospitalization. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors for moderate/severe COVID-19. A nomogram was constructed to predict moderate/severe disease. The model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

RESULTS

A total of 1,717 patients were included. After excluding the asymptomatic cases, 1,234 patients (1,023 mild cases and 211 moderate/severe cases) were used to develop the prediction model. Nine independent risk factors were identified, including the presence of at least one comorbidity, shortness of breath, vomiting, diarrhea, rash, seizures, temperature on arrival, chest recessions, and abnormal breath sounds. The nomogram's sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and AUC for predicting moderate/severe COVID-19 were 58·1%, 80·5%, 76·8%, and 0·86 (95% CI, 0·79 - 0·92) respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram, which incorporated readily available clinical parameters, would be useful to facilitate individualized clinical decisions.

Comparison of Severe Viral Pneumonia Caused by SARS-CoV-2 and Other Respiratory Viruses Among Malaysian Children During the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVES

We described the etiology of severe pneumonia in children during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia and compared the clinical features of severe SARS-CoV-2 to other respiratory viruses.

METHODS

This retrospective study included all children aged 12 years and below hospitalized with severe pneumonia in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, between 1 April 2021 and 31 October 2021. We extracted demographic and clinical data and used logistic regression to examine risk factors associated with severe SARS-CoV-2 or other viral pneumonia.

RESULTS

A total of 111 children were included. The median age was 15 months. Human rhinovirus/enterovirus, SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory syncytial virus were the most common etiology of severe pneumonia. Codetection of >1 viral pathogen was present in 14 (12.6%) patients. Children with severe COVID-19 presented early in the course of illness and had lower rates of pediatric intensive care admission. The presence of sick contact with an adult was a predictor for SARS-CoV-2, whereas adventitious breath sounds were predictive of other respiratory viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

The etiology of severe pneumonia in children evolved with the epidemic curve of COVID-19 and school closures. Children with severe pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2 experienced a milder clinical course when compared to other respiratory viruses.