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Kluyts HL, le Manach Y, Munlemvo DM, Madzimbamuto F, Basenero A, Coulibaly Y, Rakotoarison S, Gobin V, Samateh AL, Chaibou MS, Omigbodun AO, Amanor-Boadu SD, Tumukunde J, Madiba TE, Pearse RM, Biccard BM, Abbas N, Abdelatif AI, Abdoulaye T, Abd-rouf A, Abduljalil A, Abdulrahman A, Abdurazig S, Abokris A, Abozaid W, Abugassa S, Abuhdema F, Abujanah S, Abusamra R, Abushnaf A, Abusnina S, Abuzalout T, Ackermann H, Adamu Y, Addanfour A, Adeleke D, Adigun T, Adisa A, Adjignon SV, Adu-Aryee N, Afolabi B, Agaba A, Agaba P, Aghadi K, Agilla H, Ahmed B, Ahmed EZ, Ahmed AJ, Ahmed M, Ahossi R, Aji S, Akanyun S, Akhideno I, Akhter M, Akinyemi O, Akkari M, Akodjenou J, AL Samateh A, al Shams E, Alagbe-Briggs O, Alakkari E, Alalem R, Alashhab M, Alatise O, Alatresh A, Alayeb Alayeb M, Albakosh B, Albert F, Alberts A, Aldarrat A, Alfari A, Alfetore A, Algbali M, Algddar A, Algedar H, Alghafoud I, Alghazali A, Alhajj M, Alhendery Alhendery A, Alhoty F, Ali A, Ali Y, Ali A, Alioune BS, Alkassem M, 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The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications. Br J Anaesth 2018; 121:1357-1363. [PMID: 30442264 DOI: 10.1016/j.bja.2018.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2018] [Revised: 07/19/2018] [Accepted: 08/06/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. METHODS ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. RESULTS The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. CONCLUSIONS This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT03044899.
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Affiliation(s)
- H-L Kluyts
- Department of Anaesthesiology, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa
| | - Y le Manach
- Department of Anesthesia, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and Population Health Research Institute, David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute, Perioperative Medicine and Surgical Research Unit, Hamilton, ON, Canada; Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and Population Health Research Institute, David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute, Perioperative Medicine and Surgical Research Unit, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - D M Munlemvo
- University Hospital of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
| | - F Madzimbamuto
- Department of Anaesthesia and Critical Care Medicine, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - A Basenero
- Ministry of Health and Social Services Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Y Coulibaly
- Department, Faculté de médicine de Bamako, Bamako, Mali
| | | | - V Gobin
- Ministry of Health and Quality of Life, Jawaharlal Nehru Hospital, Rose Belle, Grand Port, Mauritius
| | - A L Samateh
- Department of Surgery, Edward Francis Small Teaching Hospital, Banjul, Gambia
| | - M S Chaibou
- Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Emergency, National Hospital of Niamey, Niamey, Niger
| | - A O Omigbodun
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria
| | - S D Amanor-Boadu
- Department of Anaesthesia, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria
| | - J Tumukunde
- Makerere University, Makerere, Kampala, Uganda
| | - T E Madiba
- Department of Surgery, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - R M Pearse
- Intensive Care Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - B M Biccard
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Groote Schuur Hospital, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Observatory, Western Cape, South Africa.
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Biccard BM, Madiba TE, Kluyts HL, Munlemvo DM, Madzimbamuto FD, Basenero A, Gordon CS, Youssouf C, Rakotoarison SR, Gobin V, Samateh AL, Sani CM, Omigbodun AO, Amanor-Boadu SD, Tumukunde JT, Esterhuizen TM, Manach YL, Forget P, Elkhogia AM, Mehyaoui RM, Zoumeno E, Ndayisaba G, Ndasi H, Ndonga AKN, Ngumi ZWW, Patel UP, Ashebir DZ, Antwi-Kusi AAK, Mbwele B, Sama HD, Elfiky M, Fawzy MA, Pearse RM. Perioperative patient outcomes in the African Surgical Outcomes Study: a 7-day prospective observational cohort study. Lancet 2018; 391:1589-1598. [PMID: 29306587 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)30001-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 323] [Impact Index Per Article: 53.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2017] [Revised: 09/18/2017] [Accepted: 09/26/2017] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is a need to increase access to surgical treatments in African countries, but perioperative complications represent a major global health-care burden. There are few studies describing surgical outcomes in Africa. METHODS We did a 7-day, international, prospective, observational cohort study of patients aged 18 years and older undergoing any inpatient surgery in 25 countries in Africa (the African Surgical Outcomes Study). We aimed to recruit as many hospitals as possible using a convenience sampling survey, and required data from at least ten hospitals per country (or half the surgical centres if there were fewer than ten hospitals) and data for at least 90% of eligible patients from each site. Each country selected one recruitment week between February and May, 2016. The primary outcome was in-hospital postoperative complications, assessed according to predefined criteria and graded as mild, moderate, or severe. Data were presented as median (IQR), mean (SD), or n (%), and compared using t tests. This study is registered on the South African National Health Research Database (KZ_2015RP7_22) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03044899). FINDINGS We recruited 11 422 patients (median 29 [IQR 10-70]) from 247 hospitals during the national cohort weeks. Hospitals served a median population of 810 000 people (IQR 200 000-2 000 000), with a combined number of specialist surgeons, obstetricians, and anaesthetists totalling 0·7 (0·2-1·9) per 100 000 population. Hospitals did a median of 212 (IQR 65-578) surgical procedures per 100 000 population each year. Patients were younger (mean age 38·5 years [SD 16·1]), with a lower risk profile (American Society of Anesthesiologists median score 1 [IQR 1-2]) than reported in high-income countries. 1253 (11%) patients were infected with HIV, 6504 procedures (57%) were urgent or emergent, and the most common procedure was caesarean delivery (3792 patients, 33%). Postoperative complications occurred in 1977 (18·2%, 95% CI 17·4-18·9]) of 10 885 patients. 239 (2·1%) of 11 193 patients died, 225 (94·1%) after the day of surgery. Infection was the most common complication (1156 [10·2%] of 10 970 patients), of whom 112 (9·7%) died. INTERPRETATION Despite a low-risk profile and few postoperative complications, patients in Africa were twice as likely to die after surgery when compared with the global average for postoperative deaths. Initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments in Africa therefore should be coupled with improved surveillance for deteriorating physiology in patients who develop postoperative complications, and the resources necessary to achieve this objective. FUNDING Medical Research Council of South Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bruce M Biccard
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Groote Schuur Hospital, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa.
| | | | - Hyla-Louise Kluyts
- Department of Anaesthesiology, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Dolly M Munlemvo
- Anaesthesiology, University Hospital of Kinshasha, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Farai D Madzimbamuto
- Department of Anaesthesia and Critical Care Medicine, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences, Avondale, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Apollo Basenero
- Ministry of Health and Social Services Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia
| | | | | | | | - Veekash Gobin
- Ministry of Health and Quality of Life, Jawaharlal Nehru Hospital, Rose Belle, Mauritius
| | - Ahmadou L Samateh
- Department of Surgery, Edward Francis Small Teaching Hospital, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Chaibou M Sani
- Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Emergency, National Hospital of Niamey, Niamey, Republic of Niger
| | - Akinyinka O Omigbodun
- Obstetrics and Gynaecology, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | | | | | - Tonya M Esterhuizen
- Centre for Evidence Based Health Care, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Yannick Le Manach
- Departments of Anesthesia & Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and Population Health Research Institute, David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute, Perioperative Medicine and Surgical Research Unit, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Patrice Forget
- Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel, Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Brussels, Belgium
| | | | - Ryad M Mehyaoui
- Hospital of Cardiovasculaire Pathology, Universitar Hospital, Algeria
| | - Eugene Zoumeno
- Faculté des Sciences de la Santé de Cotonou, Hôpital de la mère et de l'enfant, Lagune de Cotonou, Benin
| | - Gabriel Ndayisaba
- Kamenge Teaching Hospital, Department of Surgery, Bujumbura, Burundi
| | - Henry Ndasi
- Department of Orthopaedics and General Surgery, Baptist Hospital, Mutengene, Cameroon
| | | | - Zipporah W W Ngumi
- Department of Anaesthesia, University of Nairobi School of Medicine, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Ushmah P Patel
- Anaesthesiology, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Akwasi A K Antwi-Kusi
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, School of Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Bernard Mbwele
- HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment & PMTCT, Christian Social Service Commission, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Hamza Doles Sama
- Anaesthesia Intensive Care Medicine Pain Management, Sylvanus Olympio University Teaching Hospital, Lomé TOGO, Togo
| | | | - Maher A Fawzy
- Anesthesia, ICU & Pain Management Departments, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Rupert M Pearse
- Intensive Care Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
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