Delay in recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole from unexpected CFC-11 emissions

The Antarctic ozone hole is decreasing in size but this recovery will be affected by atmospheric variability and any unexpected changes in chlorinated source gas emissions. Here, using model simulations, we show that the ozone hole will largely cease to occur by 2065 given compliance with the Montreal Protocol. If the unusual meteorology of 2002 is repeated, an ozone-hole-free-year could occur as soon as the early 2020s by some metrics. The recently discovered increase in CFC-11 emissions of ~ 13 Gg yr-1 may delay recovery. So far the impact on ozone is small, but if these emissions indicate production for foam use much more CFC-11 may be leaked in the future. Assuming such production over 10 years, disappearance of the ozone hole will be delayed by a few years, although there are significant uncertainties. Continued, substantial future CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr-1 would delay Antarctic ozone recovery by well over a decade.

Stratospheric ozone depletion due to nitrous oxide: influences of other gases

The effects of anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N(2)O), carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)) and the halocarbons on stratospheric ozone (O(3)) over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are isolated using a chemical model of the stratosphere. The future evolution of ozone will depend on each of these gases, with N(2)O and CO(2) probably playing the dominant roles as halocarbons return towards pre-industrial levels. There are nonlinear interactions between these gases that preclude unambiguously separating their effect on ozone. For example, the CH(4) increase during the twentieth century reduced the ozone losses owing to halocarbon increases, and the N(2)O chemical destruction of O(3) is buffered by CO(2) thermal effects in the middle stratosphere (by approx. 20% for the IPCC A1B/WMO A1 scenario over the time period 1900-2100). Nonetheless, N(2)O is expected to continue to be the largest anthropogenic emission of an O(3)-destroying compound in the foreseeable future. Reductions in anthropogenic N(2)O emissions provide a larger opportunity for reduction in future O(3) depletion than any of the remaining uncontrolled halocarbon emissions. It is also shown that 1980 levels of O(3) were affected by halocarbons, N(2)O, CO(2) and CH(4), and thus may not be a good choice of a benchmark of O(3) recovery.

The persistently variable "background" stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change

Recent measurements demonstrate that the "background" stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about -0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about -0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.

Measuring reactive nitrogen emissions from point sources using visible spectroscopy from aircraft

Accurate measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a key trace gas in the formation and destruction of tropospheric ozone, are important in studies of urban pollution. Nitrogen dioxide column abundances were measured during the Texas Air Quality Study 2000 using visible absorption spectroscopy from an aircraft. The method allows for quantification of the integrated total number of nitrogen dioxide molecules in the polluted atmosphere and is hence a useful tool for measuring plumes of this key trace gas. Further, we show how such remote-sensing observations can be used to obtain information on the fluxes of nitrogen dioxide into the atmosphere with unique flexibility in terms of aircraft altitude, and the height and extent of mixing of the boundary layer. Observations of nitrogen dioxide plumes downwind of power plants were used to estimate the flux of nitrogen oxide emitted from several power plants in the Houston and Dallas metropolitan areas and in North Carolina. Measurements taken over the city of Houston were also employed to infer the total flux from the city as a whole.

Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements

Depletion of the ozone layer has been observed on a global scale, and is probably related to halocarbon emissions. Ozone depletion increases the biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, which leads to a variety of adverse effects, including an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. The 1985 Vienna Convention provided the framework for international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances. The consequences of such restrictions have not yet been assessed in terms of effects avoided. Here we present a new method of estimating future excess skin cancer risks which is used to compare effects of a 'no restrictions' scenario with two restrictive scenarios specified under the Vienna Convention: the Montreal Protocol, and the much stricter Copenhagen Amendments. The no-restrictions and Montreal Protocol scenarios produce a runaway increase in skin cancer incidence, up to a quadrupling and doubling, respectively, by the year 2100. The Copenhagen Amendments scenario leads to an ozone minimum around the year 2000, and a peak relative increase in incidence of skin cancer of almost 10% occurring 60 years later. These results demonstrate the importance of the international measures agreed upon under the Vienna Convention.

The detection of a metabolite of alpha-benzyl-N-methylphenethylamine synthesis in a mixed drug fatality involving methamphetamine

A 37-year-old, white male collapsed at his home following a party. He reportedly had a history of unspecified cardiac arrhythmia. The ambulance crew found him unresponsive and an ECG revealed ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation. Following one hour of resuscitative efforts in the ambulance and emergency room of a local hospital, he was pronounced dead. An antemortem urine toxicology screen performed at the hospital was "positive" for benzodiazepines, cocaine and amphetamine/methamphetamine. At autopsy, there was generalized organ congestion with no evidence of trauma or other significant pathology except mild, left ventricular hypertrophy. Quantitation by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) of methamphetamine in bile, blood, urine and gastric contents yielded 21.7, 0.7, 32.0 and 2.9 mg/L, respectively. Liver and brain contained 2.2 and 2.7 mg/kg, respectively. A trace amount of p-OH-alpha-benzyl-N-methylphenethylamine (p-OH-BNMPA), a metabolite of alpha-benzyl-N-methylphenethylamine (BNMPA), an impurity of illicit methamphetamine synthesis, was also detected in the urine. Since these impurities can be characteristic of a particular synthetic method, their presence in seized samples or their detection in biological samples from methamphetamine users can further be used to monitor the sales of precursor chemicals, group seized compounds to common sources of illicit production or provide links between manufacturers, dealers and users.

A new look at pericardial substitutes

The presence of pericardial adhesions may increase morbidity and mortality during reoperation for cardiac disease. Pericardial substitutes (patches) are commercially available, and reportedly they reduce or prevent adhesions. We implanted five (1984 to 1985) newer pericardial substitutes in dogs. A new polytetrafluoroethylene surgical membrane, two types of glutaraldehyde-stabilized bovine pericardium, formaldehyde-preserved bovine pericardium, and glutaraldehyde-stabilized equine pericardial patches were each implanted in six adult dogs (total 30 dogs) with two dogs from each of the five groups killed at 3, 9, and 18 months. At autopsy the condition of each patch was recorded photographically, and specimens were substituted for histologic examination. Adhesions and epicardial reactions were graded as none, minimal, moderate, or severe. None of the materials produced severe pericardial adhesions, and no adhesions were detected in nine dogs. Eleven dogs had no epicardial reaction and only one showed a severe reaction. Adhesions to portions of the suture line required sharp dissection in 11 dogs. If there is concern over the possibility of calcification in heterologous tissue, polytetrafluoroethylene may be chosen. Patch type did not significantly alter patch behavior.