Impacts of commodity prices and governance on the expansion of tropical agricultural frontiers

Deforestation in the tropics remains a significant global challenge linked to carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Agriculture, forestry, wildfires, and urbanization have been repeatedly identified as main drivers of tropical deforestation. Understanding the underlying mechanisms behind these direct causes is crucial to navigate the multiple tradeoffs between competing forest uses, such as food and biomass production (SDG 2), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). This paper develops and implements a global-scale empirical approach to quantify two key factors affecting land use decisions at tropical forest frontiers: agricultural commodity prices and national governance. It relies on data covering the period 2004-2015 from multiple public sources, aggregated to countries and agro-ecological zones. Our analysis confirms the persistent influence of commodity prices on agricultural land expansion, especially in forest-abundant regions. Economic and environmental governance quality co-determines processes of expansion and contraction of agricultural land in the tropics, yet at much smaller magnitudes than other drivers. We derive land supply elasticities for direct use in standard economic impact assessment models and demonstrate that our results make a difference in a Computable General Equilibrium framework.

Behavioral factors driving farmers' intentions to adopt spot spraying for sustainable weed control

Smart Farming Technologies enable plant-specific agrochemical applications which can increase the efficiency and reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture. However, the uptake of Smart Farming Technologies remains slow despite their potential to enhance sustainable transformation of food systems. The design of policies to promote sustainable agricultural technologies requires a holistic understanding of the complex set of factors driving the adoption of innovations at farm level. This study has a focus on behavioral factors, such as pro-environmental attitude, personal innovativeness and moral norms. Based on an online study conducted in Germany, structural equation modelling is applied to test the predictions of an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behavior, using spot spraying, a smart weeding technology, as an example. The results confirm theoretical predictions and show that indicators of attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control have relevant effects on farmers' adoption intentions. The extended model revealed a medium-sized (small) direct effect of moral norms on the attitude towards spot spraying (adoption intention). Personal innovativeness had a small effect on adoption intention, whereas pro-environmental attitude did not exhibit a clear direction of impact. Methodological and policy implications derived from the results are discussed noting that the inclusion of indicators for moral norms can improve the predictive power of models used in future research in this field. Overall, initiatives aimed at facilitating the exchange of opinions and related moral norms as well as collaboration among peers may contribute to voluntary sustainable innovation as it enhances adoption intentions among farmers.

Lessons from the historical dynamics of environmental law enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon

Here, we analyze critical changes in environmental law enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon between 2000 and 2020. Based on a dataset of law enforcement indicators, we discuss how these changes explain recent Amazon deforestation dynamics. Our analysis also covers changes in the legal prosecution process and documents a militarization of enforcement between 2018 and 2022. From 2004 to 2018, 43.6 thousand land-use embargoes and 84.3 thousand fines were issued, targeting 3.3 million ha of land, and totaling USD 9.3 billion in penalties. Nevertheless, enforcement relaxed and became spatially more limited, signaling an increasing lack of commitment by the State to enforcing the law. The number of embargoes and asset confiscations dropped by 59% and 55% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. These changes were accompanied by a marked increase in enforcement expenditure, suggesting a massive efficiency loss. More importantly, the creation of so-called conciliation hearings and the centralization of legal processes in 2019 reduced the number of actual judgments and fines collected by 85% and decreased the ratio between lawsuits resulting in paid fines over filed ones from 17 to 5%. As Brazil gears up to crack-down on illegal deforestation once again, our assessment suggests urgent entry points for policy action.

Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation

Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

COVID-19 in rural Africa: Food access disruptions, food insecurity and coping strategies in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania

This study assesses the extent of COVID-19-related food insecurity in Kenya, Tanzania, and Namibia. Using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, we measure food insecurity in various dimensions and document several food access disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic between April and July 2020. Furthermore, we assess the association of COVID-19 countermeasures with the adoption of various strategies in line with the coping strategies index. We rely on a unique phone survey that followed households who participated in an earlier field-based survey. First, through Ordinary Least-Squares and Probit regressions, we show a strong and statistically significant association between COVID-19 countermeasures and food access disruptions and food insecurity in each of the three countries. We then use a multivariate probit regression model to understand the use of the various coping strategies, including reducing food intake, increasing food search, and relying more on less nutritious foods. We provide evidence on the complementarities and trade-offs in using these coping strategies. COVID-19 and related lockdown measures coincided with a deleterious increase in food insecurity in rural Africa.

Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon

It has been suggested that rainfall in the Amazon decreases if forest loss exceeds some threshold, but the specific value of this threshold remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall at different geographical scales across the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA). We also assess impacts of deforestation policy scenarios on the region's agriculture. Forest loss of up to 55-60% within 28 km grid cells enhances rainfall, but further deforestation reduces rainfall precipitously. This threshold is lower at larger scales (45-50% at 56 km and 25-30% at 112 km grid cells), while rainfall decreases linearly within 224 km grid cells. Widespread deforestation results in a hydrological and economic negative-sum game, because lower rainfall and agricultural productivity at larger scales outdo local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA may lose 56% of its forests by 2050. Reducing deforestation prevents agricultural losses in SBA up to US$ 1 billion annually.

FABIO-The Construction of the Food and Agriculture Biomass Input-Output Model

Harvested biomass is linked to final consumption by networks of processes and actors that convert and distribute food and nonfood goods. Achieving a sustainable resource metabolism of the economy is an overarching challenge which manifests itself in a number of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Modeling the physical dimensions of biomass conversion and distribution networks is essential to understanding the characteristics, drivers, and dynamics of the socio-economic biomass metabolism. In this paper, we present the Food and Agriculture Biomass Input-Output model (FABIO), a set of multiregional supply, use and input-output tables in physical units, that document the complex flows of agricultural and food products in the global economy. The model assembles FAOSTAT statistics reporting crop production, trade, and utilization in physical units, supplemented by data on technical and metabolic conversion efficiencies, into a consistent, balanced, input-output framework. FABIO covers 191 countries and 130 agriculture, food and forestry products from 1986 to 2013. The physical supply use tables offered by FABIO provide a comprehensive, transparent, and flexible structure for organizing data representing flows of materials within metabolic networks. They allow tracing of biomass flows and embodied environmental pressures along global supply chains at an unprecedented level of product and country detail and can help to answer a range of questions regarding environment, agriculture, and trade. Here we apply FABIO to the case of cropland footprints and show the evolution of consumption-based cropland demand in China, the E.U., and the U.S.A. for plant-based and livestock-based food and nonfood products.

Transparency and sustainability in global commodity supply chains

Over the last few decades rapid advances in processes to collect, monitor, disclose, and disseminate information have contributed towards the development of entirely new modes of sustainability governance for global commodity supply chains. However, there has been very little critical appraisal of the contribution made by different transparency initiatives to sustainability and the ways in which they can (and cannot) influence new governance arrangements. Here we seek to strengthen the theoretical underpinning of research and action on supply chain transparency by addressing four questions: (1) What is meant by supply chain transparency? (2) What is the relevance of supply chain transparency to supply chain sustainability governance? (3) What is the current status of supply chain transparency, and what are the strengths and weaknesses of existing initiatives? and (4) What propositions can be advanced for how transparency can have a positive transformative effect on the governance interventions that seek to strengthen sustainability outcomes? We use examples from agricultural supply chains and the zero-deforestation agenda as a focus of our analysis but draw insights that are relevant to the transparency and sustainability of supply chains in general. We propose a typology to distinguish among types of supply chain information that are needed to support improvements in sustainability governance, and illustrate a number of major shortfalls and systematic biases in existing information systems. We also propose a set of ten propositions that, taken together, serve to expose some of the potential pitfalls and undesirable outcomes that may result from (inevitably) limited or poorly designed transparency systems, whilst offering guidance on some of the ways in which greater transparency can make a more effective, lasting and positive contribution to sustainability.

Energy security, uncertainty and energy resource use options in Ethiopia

Purpose

Ethiopia’s energy sector faces critical challenges to meeting steadily increasing energy demand given limited infrastructure, heavy reliance on hydroelectric power and underdevelopment of alternative energy resources. The purpose of this paper was to identify optimal least cost investment decisions for integrated energy source diversification. The authors seek to contribute to the relevant literature by paying particular attention to the role of public policy for promoting renewable energy investment and to better understand future energy security implications of various sources of uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors created a dynamic linear programming model using General Algebraic Modelling System software to explore the national energy security implications of uncertainties associated with increasing technological advances and efficiency, and climate change scenarios.

Findings

To cope with the impacts of drought expected from future climate change on hydroelectric power production, Ethiopia would need to invest in the development of alternative energy resources. Such investment would not only enhance the sustainability and reliability of energy production but also increase costs. Greater rates of technological and efficiency innovations, however, were found to improve electricity diversification and reduce production costs and shadow prices or resource scarcity, and are thus key for enhancing energy security and reducing the risks posed by drought.

Originality/value

The dynamic linear programming model by the authors represents a flexible sector modelling tool for exploring the sustainability and efficiency of energy resource development pathways and evaluating the effects of different sources of uncertainty on the energy sector.

Naming and Shaming for Conservation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has dropped substantially after a peak of over 27 thousand square kilometers in 2004. Starting in 2008, the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment has regularly published blacklists of critical districts with high annual forest loss. Farms in blacklisted districts face additional administrative hurdles to obtain authorization for clearing forests. In this paper we add to the existing literature on evaluating the Brazilian anti-deforestation policies by specifically quantifying the impact of blacklisting on deforestation. We first use spatial matching techniques using a set of covariates that includes official blacklisting criteria to identify control districts. We then explore the effect of blacklisting on change in deforestation in double difference regressions with panel data covering the period from 2002 to 2012. Multiple robustness checks are conducted including an analysis of potential causal mechanisms behind the success of the blacklist. We find that the blacklist has considerably reduced deforestation in the affected districts even after controlling for the potential mechanism effects of field-based enforcement, environmental registration campaigns, and rural credit.

Mixing carrots and sticks to conserve forests in the Brazilian Amazon: a spatial probabilistic modeling approach

Annual forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon had in 2012 declined to less than 5,000 sqkm, from over 27,000 in 2004. Mounting empirical evidence suggests that changes in Brazilian law enforcement strategy and the related governance system may account for a large share of the overall success in curbing deforestation rates. At the same time, Brazil is experimenting with alternative approaches to compensate farmers for conservation actions through economic incentives, such as payments for environmental services, at various administrative levels. We develop a spatially explicit simulation model for deforestation decisions in response to policy incentives and disincentives. The model builds on elements of optimal enforcement theory and introduces the notion of imperfect payment contract enforcement in the context of avoided deforestation. We implement the simulations using official deforestation statistics and data collected from field-based forest law enforcement operations in the Amazon region. We show that a large-scale integration of payments with the existing regulatory enforcement strategy involves a tradeoff between the cost-effectiveness of forest conservation and landholder incomes. Introducing payments as a complementary policy measure increases policy implementation cost, reduces income losses for those hit hardest by law enforcement, and can provide additional income to some land users. The magnitude of the tradeoff varies in space, depending on deforestation patterns, conservation opportunity and enforcement costs. Enforcement effectiveness becomes a key determinant of efficiency in the overall policy mix.

Environmental Income and Rural Livelihoods: A Global-Comparative Analysis

This paper presents results from a comparative analysis of environmental income from approximately 8000 households in 24 developing countries collected by research partners in CIFOR's Poverty Environment Network (PEN). Environmental income accounts for 28% of total household income, 77% of which comes from natural forests. Environmental income shares are higher for low-income households, but differences across income quintiles are less pronounced than previously thought. The poor rely more heavily on subsistence products such as wood fuels and wild foods, and on products harvested from natural areas other than forests. In absolute terms environmental income is approximately five times higher in the highest income quintile, compared to the two lowest quintiles.

Rural income and forest reliance in highland Guatemala

This paper estimates rural household-level forest reliance in the western highlands of Guatemala using quantitative methods. Data were generated by the way of an in-depth household income survey, repeated quarterly between November 2005 and November 2006, in 11 villages (n = 149 randomly selected households). The main sources of income proved to be small-scale agriculture (53 % of total household income), wages (19 %) and environmental resources (14 %). The latter came primarily from forests (11 % on average). In the poorest quintile the forest income share was as high as 28 %. All households harvest and consume environmental products. In absolute terms, environmental income in the top quintile was 24 times higher than in the lowest. Timber and poles, seeds, firewood and leaf litter were the most important forest products. Households can be described as 'regular subsistence users': the share of subsistence income is high, with correspondingly weak integration into regional markets. Agricultural systems furthermore use important inputs from surrounding forests, although forests and agricultural uses compete in household specialization strategies. We find the main household determinants of forest income to be household size, education and asset values, as well as closeness to markets and agricultural productivity. Understanding these common but spatially differentiated patterns of environmental reliance may inform policies aimed at improving livelihoods and conserving forests.

A steroid hormone affects sodium channel expression in Manduca central neurons

Neuronal differentiation is characterized by stereotypical sequences of membrane channel and receptor acquisition. This is regulated by the coordinated interactions of a variety of developmental mechanisms, one of which is the control by steroid hormones. We have used the metamorphosis of the holometabolous insect, Manduca sexta, as a model to study effects of 20-hydroxyecdysone on the maturation of thoracic neuron membrane channel expression. To test for direct hormone action, neurons were dissociated into primary cell culture on the first day of pupal life. In situ hybridization demonstrated that the amount of expression of the acetylcholine receptor alpha subunit, MARA1, was not affected by 20-hydroxyecdysone. Immunocytochemistry with an antibody directed against the SP19 segment of voltage-gated sodium channels revealed no effect of 20-hydroxyecdysone treatment during the first 6 days in culture. SP19 sodium channel protein was evenly distributed along all neurites. In contrast, after 8 days in culture, 20-hydroxyecdysone increased the amount of SP19 protein expression and strongly affected its distribution in differentiating neurons. In the presence of 20-hydroxyecdysone, patches of high densities of SP19 sodium channel protein were found in growth cones close to the base of filopodia. This is a further step toward unraveling the blend of membrane proteins under the control of steroids during the development of the central nervous system of postembryonic Manduca. Our results, taken together with previous studies, indicate that 20-hydroxyecdysone does not affect the expression of potassium membrane current or of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor but instead regulates the amplitude of the calcium membrane current and the amount and distribution of SP19 sodium channel protein.

Immunocytochemical and molecular data guide peptide identification by mass spectrometry: orcokinin and orcomyotropin-related peptides in the stomatogastric nervous system of several crustacean species

In order to identify new orcokinin and orcomyotropin-related peptides in crustaceans, molecular and immunocytochemical data were combined with matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). In the crayfish Procambarus clarkii, four orcokinins and an orcomyotropin-related peptide are present on the precursor. Because these peptides are highly conserved, we assumed that other species have an identical number of peptides. To identify the peptides, immunocytochemistry was used to localize the regions of the stomatogastric nervous system in which orcokinins are predominantly present. One of the regions predominantly containing orcokinins was a previously undescribed olive-shaped neuropil region within the commissural ganglia of the lobsters Homarus americanus and Homarus gammarus. MALDI-TOF MS on these regions identified peptide masses that always occur together with the known orcokinins. Seven peptide ions occurred together in the peptide massspectra of the lobsters. Mass spectrometric fragmentation by MALDI-MS post-source decay (PSD) and electrospray ionization quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (ESI Q-TOF MS) collision-induced dissociation (CID) were used in the identification of six of these masses, either as orcokinins or as orcomyotropin-related peptides and revealed three hitherto unknown peptide variants, two of which are [His13]-orcokinin ([M+H]+ = 1540.8 Da) and an orcomyotropin-related peptide FDAFTTGFGHN ([M+H]+ = 1213.5 Da). The mass of the third previously unknown orcokinin variant corresponded to that of an identified orcokinin, but PSD fragmentation did not support the suggested amino acid sequence. CID analysis allowed partial de novo sequencing of this peptide. In the crab Cancer pagurus, five orcokinins and an orcomyotropin-related peptide were unambigously identified, including the previously unknown peptide variant [Ser9-Val13]-orcokinin ([M+H]+ = 1532.8 Da).

[Selenium administration in children with SIRS]

PATIENTS AND METHOD

At the Clinic for Paediatric Surgery of the University of Dresden, in a time period ranging from 5/1994 to 12/1996, all patients aged between 1 and 16 years with severe inflammatory surgical diseases or extended scalded skin, were given an adjuvant selenium substitution. As control group, all patients with the same diagnosis and age treated during the months 1/1997 to 12/1998, did not receive this adjuvant selenium substitution. All these patients fulfilled the criteria of "Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome" (SIRS). The selenium-therapy group consisted of 34 patients and the control group without substitution consisted of 31 patients. The following laboratory parameters were measured on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th and last treatment day: white blood cell count, interleukin 6, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, malondialdehyde, activity of glutathione peroxidase in plasma and level of selenium in plasma and whole blood.

RESULTS

The initially high interleukin 6 rates declined significantly in both groups from the 2nd day on. The acute phase proteins, i.e. the C-reactive protein and fibrinogen, normalized in both groups after the 3rd day of treatment. The initial low rates of selenium in plasma and blood gained more rapidly a normal level in the therapy group than in the control group. On the 1st day of therapy the glutathione peroxidase activity in plasma was in both groups at the inferior limit of norm range and remained at this level in the control group for the whole observation period. In the selenium-substitution group on the contrary, these initial low values raised to the double as an expression of an elevated cell membrane protection. The initial significant elevated malondialdehyde rates in both groups, expressing a raised lipidperoxidation, fell down to a normal level in the selenium-substitution group, whereas they remained at their initial high level in the control group during the whole observation period.

CONCLUSION

The substitution of selenium in children with SIRS is a supportive therapy.

[Selenium administration in severe inflammatory surgical diseases and burns in childhood]

PATIENTS AND METHOD

Substitution of selenium was performed in the University Clinic of Paediatric Surgery in Dresden in the time from 1994 to 1996 in 34 children aged 1 to 16 years with severe inflammatory surgical diseases as well a s widespread burns. Seven further patients have been examined within this time who have not received substitution of selenium as preliminary comparison group. All these patients fulfilled the criteria of "Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome" (SIRS). The following paraclinical parameters were examined: white cell count, interleukin 6, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, malondialdehyde, activity of glutathione peroxidase in plasma and level of selenium in plasma and whole blood.

RESULTS

Patients with initially low level of selenium who received substitution of selenium reached normal ranges more quickly than patients without substitution. Originally partly elevated values of malondialdehyde as sign of increased peroxidation of lipids were normalized under substitution of selenium. Initially low activity of selenium level in plasma showed a clear increase under substitution of selenium as sign of increased protection of the cell membrane.

CONCLUSION

The substitution of selenium in children with SIRS is a supportive therapy.

[Potentiometric concentration determination of cyanide ions in waste water]

Electrodic systems, consist of gold or silver and metals of the IV, or V, subsidiary groups of the periodic system of elements are qualified for that, because they based strength of their electrodic steepness, selectivity, potentionel stability and sensibility by destination of cyanid ions in waste-water. We are going to introduce a fast-analysis-method for cyanid ions in waste-water of technical processes, which had been tested practically by the continuous control of limits, demanded by the legislator.