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Amr A, Koelemen J, Reich C, Sedaghat-Hamedani F, Kayvanpour E, Haas J, Frese K, Lehmann D, Katus HA, Frey N, Meder B. Improving sudden cardiac death risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using established clinical variables and genetic information. Clin Res Cardiol 2024; 113:728-736. [PMID: 37792019 PMCID: PMC11026183 DOI: 10.1007/s00392-023-02310-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The cardiac societies of Europe and the United States have established different risk models for preventing sudden cardiac death (SCD) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The aim of this study is to validate current SCD risk prediction methods in a German HCM cohort and to improve them by the addition of genotype information. METHODS HCM patients without prior SCD or equivalent arrhythmic events ≥ 18 years of age were enrolled in an expert cardiomyopathy center in Germany. The primary endpoint was defined as SCD/-equivalent within 5 years of baseline evaluation. 5-year SCD-risk estimates and recommendations for ICD implantations, as defined by the ESC and AHA/ACC guidelines, were analyzed. Multivariate cox proportional hazards analyses were integrated with genetic findings as additive SCD risk. RESULTS 283 patients were included and followed for in median 5.77 years (2.92; 8.85). A disease-causing variant was found in 138 (49%) patients. 14 (5%) patients reached the SCD endpoint (5-year incidence 4.9%). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis shows significantly lower overall SCD event-free survival for patients with an identified disease-causing variant (p < 0.05). The ESC HCM Risk-SCD model showed an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.79; p < 0.0001) with a sensitivity of 0.29 (95% CI 0.08-0.58) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.88) for a risk estimate ≥ 6%/5-years. By comparison, the AHA/ACC HCM SCD risk stratification model showed an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.76; p = 0.003) with a sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.66-0.998) and specificity of 0.28 (95% CI 0.23-0.34) at the respective cut-off. The modified SCD Risk Score with genetic information yielded an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81; p < 0.0001) with a sensitivity of 0.86 (95% CI 0.57-0.98) and specificity of 0.69 (95% CI 0.63-0.74). The number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent 1 SCD event by prophylactic ICD-implantation is 13 for the ESC model, 28 for AHA/ACC and 9 for the modified Genotype-model. CONCLUSION This study confirms the performance of current risk models in clinical decision making. The integration of genetic findings into current SCD risk stratification methods seem feasible and can add in decision making, especially in borderline risk-groups. A subgroup of patients with high SCD risk remains unidentified by current risk scores.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Amr
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jan Koelemen
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Christoph Reich
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Farbod Sedaghat-Hamedani
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Elham Kayvanpour
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jan Haas
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Karen Frese
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - David Lehmann
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Hugo A Katus
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Norbert Frey
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Benjamin Meder
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies & Center for Cardiogenetics, Department of Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 410, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany.
- DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Standort Heidelberg/Mannheim, 69120, Heidelberg, Germany.
- Stanford Genome Technology Center, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, 94305, USA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Meder
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies Heidelberg and Department of Internal Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, D-62910 Heidelberg, Germany.,DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jan Koelemen
- Institute for Cardiomyopathies Heidelberg and Department of Internal Medicine III, University of Heidelberg, D-62910 Heidelberg, Germany.,DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site, Heidelberg, Germany
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