Genomic epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil

The high numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil have made Latin America an epicentre of the pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 established sustained transmission in Brazil early in the pandemic, but important gaps remain in our understanding of virus transmission dynamics at a national scale. We use 17,135 near-complete genomes sampled from 27 Brazilian states and bordering country Paraguay. From March to November 2020, we detected co-circulation of multiple viral lineages that were linked to multiple importations (predominantly from Europe). After November 2020, we detected large, local transmission clusters within the country. In the absence of effective restriction measures, the epidemic progressed, and in January 2021 there was emergence and onward spread, both within and abroad, of variants of concern and variants under monitoring, including Gamma (P.1) and Zeta (P.2). We also characterized a genomic overview of the epidemic in Paraguay and detected evidence of importation of SARS-CoV-2 ancestor lineages and variants of concern from Brazil. Our findings show that genomic surveillance in Brazil enabled assessment of the real-time spread of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

The Divergent Pattern of SARS-CoV-2 Variant Predominance and Transmission Dynamics in the Brazilian Island of Ilhabela

Our effort in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in Brazil has detected the Alpha Variant of Concern with a predominance higher than 75% in the population of Ilhabela island (São Paulo State) at a time when the Gamma VOC was already predominating the mainland raised concerns for closer surveillance on this island. Therefore, we intensified the surveillance for 24 weeks by generating data from 34% of local positive cases. Our data show that the patterns of VOC predominance dynamics and infection rates were in general distinct from the mainland. We report here the first known case of Alpha predominance in a Brazilian population, a delay greater than 3 months for the Gamma to dominate the previous variants compared to the mainland, and a faster dispersion rate of Gamma and Delta VOCs compared to the mainland. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Ilhabela were characterized by multiple independent introduction events of Gamma and Delta, with a few events of Alpha introduction, two of them followed by community transmission. This study evidenced the peculiar behavior of SARS-CoV-2 variants in an isolated population and brought to light the importance of specific programs for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in isolated populations.

Genomic epidemiology reveals the impact of national and international restrictions measures on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil

Brazil has experienced some of the highest numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths globally and from May 2021 made Latin America a pandemic epicenter. Although SARS-CoV-2 established sustained transmission in Brazil early in the pandemic, important gaps remain in our understanding of virus transmission dynamics at the national scale. Here, we describe the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 using near-full genomes sampled from 27 Brazilian states and a bordering country - Paraguay. We show that the early stage of the pandemic in Brazil was characterised by the co-circulation of multiple viral lineages, linked to multiple importations predominantly from Europe, and subsequently characterized by large local transmission clusters. As the epidemic progressed under an absence of effective restriction measures, there was a local emergence and onward international spread of Variants of Concern (VOC) and Variants Under Monitoring (VUM), including Gamma (P.1) and Zeta (P.2). In addition, we provide a preliminary genomic overview of the epidemic in Paraguay, showing evidence of importation from Brazil. These data reinforce the usefulness and need for the implementation of widespread genomic surveillance in South America as a toolkit for pandemic monitoring that provides a means to follow the real-time spread of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants with possible implications for public health and immunization strategies.

SARS-COV-2 GENOMIC MONITORING IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO UNVEILS TWO EMERGING AY.43 SUBLINEAGES

Delta VOC is highly diverse with more than 120 sublineages already described as of November 30, 2021. In this study, through active monitoring of circulating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus‐2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) variants in the state of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, we identified two emerging sublineages from the ancestral AY.43 strain which were classified as AY.43.1 and AY.43.2. These sublineages were defined by the following characteristic nonsynonymous mutations ORF1ab:A4133V and ORF3a:T14I for the AY.43.1 and ORF1ab:G1155C for the AY.43.2 and our analysis reveals that they might have a likely‐Brazilian origin. Much is still unknown regarding their dissemination in the state of São Paulo and Brazil as well as their potential impact on the ongoing vaccination process. However, the results obtained in this study reinforce the importance of genomic surveillance activity for timely identification of emerging SARS‐CoV‐2 variants which can impact the ongoing SARS‐CoV‐2 vaccination and public health policies.