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Shugar DH, Jacquemart M, Shean D, Bhushan S, Upadhyay K, Sattar A, Schwanghart W, McBride S, de Vries MVW, Mergili M, Emmer A, Deschamps-Berger C, McDonnell M, Bhambri R, Allen S, Berthier E, Carrivick JL, Clague JJ, Dokukin M, Dunning SA, Frey H, Gascoin S, Haritashya UK, Huggel C, Kääb A, Kargel JS, Kavanaugh JL, Lacroix P, Petley D, Rupper S, Azam MF, Cook SJ, Dimri AP, Eriksson M, Farinotti D, Fiddes J, Gnyawali KR, Harrison S, Jha M, Koppes M, Kumar A, Leinss S, Majeed U, Mal S, Muhuri A, Noetzli J, Paul F, Rashid I, Sain K, Steiner J, Ugalde F, Watson CS, Westoby MJ. A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. Science 2021; 373:300-306. [PMID: 34112725 DOI: 10.1126/science.abh4455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2021] [Accepted: 05/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
On 7 February 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. More than 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that ~27 × 106 cubic meters of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders greater than 20 meters in diameter and scoured the valley walls up to 220 meters above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- D H Shugar
- Water, Sediment, Hazards, and Earth-surface Dynamics (waterSHED) Lab, Department of Geoscience, University of Calgary, AB, Canada.
| | - M Jacquemart
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.,Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology, and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - D Shean
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - S Bhushan
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - K Upadhyay
- Independent journalist/water policy researcher, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India
| | - A Sattar
- Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - W Schwanghart
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - S McBride
- U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Moffett Field, CA, USA
| | - M Van Wyk de Vries
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.,St. Anthony Falls Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - M Mergili
- Institute of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria.,Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - A Emmer
- Institute of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - C Deschamps-Berger
- Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère (CESBIO), Université de Toulouse, CNES/CNRS/INRAE/IRD/UP, Toulouse, France
| | - M McDonnell
- Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
| | - R Bhambri
- Department of Geography, South Asia Institute, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - S Allen
- Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland
| | - E Berthier
- Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Université de Toulouse, CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - J L Carrivick
- School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK.,water@leeds, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
| | - J J Clague
- Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - M Dokukin
- Department of Natural Disasters, High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, Nalchik, Russia
| | - S A Dunning
- School of Geography, Politics, and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK
| | - H Frey
- Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - S Gascoin
- Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère (CESBIO), Université de Toulouse, CNES/CNRS/INRAE/IRD/UP, Toulouse, France
| | - U K Haritashya
- Department of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH, USA
| | - C Huggel
- Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - A Kääb
- Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - J S Kargel
- Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - J L Kavanaugh
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - P Lacroix
- ISTerre, Université Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble, France
| | - D Petley
- Department of Geography, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - S Rupper
- Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
| | - M F Azam
- Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Madhya Pradesh, Indore, India
| | - S J Cook
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK.,United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Centre for Water Law, Policy, and Science, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - A P Dimri
- School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India
| | - M Eriksson
- Stockholm International Water Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - D Farinotti
- Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology, and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - J Fiddes
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
| | - K R Gnyawali
- School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC, Canada
| | - S Harrison
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - M Jha
- Department of Mines and Geology, National Earthquake Monitoring and Research Center, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - M Koppes
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - A Kumar
- Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
| | - S Leinss
- Institute of Environmental Engineering (IfU), ETH Zurich, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - U Majeed
- Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India
| | - S Mal
- Department of Geography, Shaheed Bhagat Singh College, University of Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - A Muhuri
- Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère (CESBIO), Université de Toulouse, CNES/CNRS/INRAE/IRD/UP, Toulouse, France.,Institute of Geography, Heidelberg University, Germany
| | - J Noetzli
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
| | - F Paul
- Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - I Rashid
- Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India
| | - K Sain
- Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
| | - J Steiner
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal.,Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Netherlands
| | - F Ugalde
- Geoestudios, San José de Maipo, Chile.,Department of Geology, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - C S Watson
- Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET), School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - M J Westoby
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
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Biskaborn BK, Smith SL, Noetzli J, Matthes H, Vieira G, Streletskiy DA, Schoeneich P, Romanovsky VE, Lewkowicz AG, Abramov A, Allard M, Boike J, Cable WL, Christiansen HH, Delaloye R, Diekmann B, Drozdov D, Etzelmüller B, Grosse G, Guglielmin M, Ingeman-Nielsen T, Isaksen K, Ishikawa M, Johansson M, Johannsson H, Joo A, Kaverin D, Kholodov A, Konstantinov P, Kröger T, Lambiel C, Lanckman JP, Luo D, Malkova G, Meiklejohn I, Moskalenko N, Oliva M, Phillips M, Ramos M, Sannel ABK, Sergeev D, Seybold C, Skryabin P, Vasiliev A, Wu Q, Yoshikawa K, Zheleznyak M, Lantuit H. Permafrost is warming at a global scale. Nat Commun 2019; 10:264. [PMID: 30651568 PMCID: PMC6335433 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 239] [Impact Index Per Article: 47.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2018] [Accepted: 12/21/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boris K Biskaborn
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.
| | - Sharon L Smith
- Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON-K1A 0E8, Canada
| | - Jeannette Noetzli
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, CH-7260, Switzerland
| | - Heidrun Matthes
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
| | - Gonçalo Vieira
- CEG/IGOT, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, 1600-276, Portugal
| | | | | | | | | | - Andrey Abramov
- Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems of Soil Science, RAS, Moscow, 142290, Russia
| | - Michel Allard
- Université Laval, Centre d'études nordiques, Québec, G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Julia Boike
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
- Humboldt-Universität, Geography Department, Berlin, 10099, Germany
| | - William L Cable
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
| | | | | | - Bernhard Diekmann
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
- University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14469, Germany
| | - Dmitry Drozdov
- Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS, Tyumen, 625000, Russia
| | | | - Guido Grosse
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
- University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14469, Germany
| | - Mauro Guglielmin
- Insubria University, Department of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, Varese, 21100, Italy
| | - Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
- Technical University of Denmark, Department of Civil Engineering, Kgs. Lyngby, DK-2800, Denmark
| | - Ketil Isaksen
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, 0313, Norway
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Alexander Kholodov
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK-99775, USA
- Institute of Physicochemical and Biological Problems of Soil Science, RAS, Moscow, 142290, Russia
| | | | - Tim Kröger
- Free University Berlin, Geography Department, Berlin, 12249, Germany
| | | | | | - Dongliang Luo
- Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resource, CAS, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Galina Malkova
- Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS, Tyumen, 625000, Russia
| | | | - Natalia Moskalenko
- Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS, Tyumen, 625000, Russia
| | - Marc Oliva
- University of Barcelona, Barcelona, 08001, Spain
| | - Marcia Phillips
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, CH-7260, Switzerland
| | | | | | - Dmitrii Sergeev
- Institute of Environmental Geoscience, RAS, Moscow, 101000, Russia
| | | | - Pavel Skryabin
- Melnikov Permafrost Institute, RAS, Yakutsk, 677010, Russia
| | - Alexander Vasiliev
- Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre SB RAS, Tyumen, 625000, Russia
- Tyumen State University, Tyumen, 625003, Russia
| | - Qingbai Wu
- Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resource, CAS, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | | | | | - Hugues Lantuit
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
- University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14469, Germany
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