Alkalinity responses to climate warming destabilise the Earth's thermostat

Alkalinity generation from rock weathering modulates Earth's climate at geological time scales. Although lithology is thought to dominantly control alkalinity generation globally, the role of other first-order controls appears elusive. Particularly challenging remains the discrimination of climatic and erosional influences. Based on global observations, here we uncover the role of erosion rate in governing riverine alkalinity, accompanied by areal proportion of carbonate, mean annual temperature, catchment area, and soil regolith thickness. We show that the weathering flux to the ocean will be significantly altered by climate warming as early as 2100, by up to 68% depending on the environmental conditions, constituting a sudden feedback of ocean CO₂ sequestration to climate. Interestingly, warming under a low-emissions scenario will reduce terrestrial alkalinity flux from mid-latitudes (-1.6 t(bicarbonate) a^-1 km^-2) until the end of the century, resulting in a reduction in CO₂ sequestration, but an increase (+0.5 t(bicarbonate) a^-1 km^-2) from mid-latitudes is likely under a high-emissions scenario, yielding an additional CO₂ sink.

Nearshore Zone Dynamics Determine Pathway of Organic Carbon From Eroding Permafrost Coasts

Collapse of permafrost coasts delivers large quantities of particulate organic carbon (POC) to Arctic coastal areas. With rapidly changing environmental conditions, sediment and organic carbon (OC) mobilization and transport pathways are also changing. Here, we assess the sources and sinks of POC in the highly dynamic nearshore zone of Herschel Island-Qikiqtaruk (Yukon, Canada). Our results show that POC concentrations sharply decrease, from 15.9 to 0.3 mg L^-1, within the first 100-300 m offshore. Simultaneously, radiocarbon ages of POC drop from 16,400 to 3,600 ¹⁴C years, indicating rapid settling of old permafrost POC to underlying sediments. This suggests that permafrost OC is, apart from a very narrow resuspension zone (<5 m water depth), predominantly deposited in nearshore sediments. While long-term storage of permafrost OC in marine sediments potentially limits biodegradation and its subsequent release as greenhouse gas, resuspension of fine-grained, OC-rich sediments in the nearshore zone potentially enhances OC turnover.

Permafrost is warming at a global scale

Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.

Climatic, geomorphologic and hydrologic perturbations as drivers for mid- to late Holocene development of ice-wedge polygons in the western Canadian Arctic

Ice-wedge polygons are widespread periglacial features and influence landscape hydrology and carbon storage. The influence of climate and topography on polygon development is not entirely clear, however, giving high uncertainties to projections of permafrost development. We studied the mid- to late Holocene development of modern ice-wedge polygon sites to explore drivers of change and reasons for long-term stability. We analyzed organic carbon, total nitrogen, stable carbon isotopes, grain size composition and plant macrofossils in six cores from three polygons. We found that all sites developed from aquatic to wetland conditions. In the mid-Holocene, shallow lakes and partly submerged ice-wedge polygons existed at the studied sites. An erosional hiatus of ca 5000 years followed, and ice-wedge polygons re-initiated within the last millennium. Ice-wedge melt and surface drying during the last century were linked to climatic warming. The influence of climate on ice-wedge polygon development was outweighed by geomorphology during most of the late Holocene. Recent warming, however, caused ice-wedge degradation at all sites. Our study showed that where waterlogged ground was maintained, low-centered polygons persisted for millennia. Ice-wedge melt and increased drainage through geomorphic disturbance, however, triggered conversion into high-centered polygons and may lead to self-enhancing degradation under continued warming.

Transformation of terrestrial organic matter along thermokarst-affected permafrost coasts in the Arctic

The changing climate in the Arctic has a profound impact on permafrost coasts, which are subject to intensified thermokarst formation and erosion. Consequently, terrestrial organic matter (OM) is mobilized and transported into the nearshore zone. Yet, little is known about the fate of mobilized OM before and after entering the ocean. In this study we investigated a retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) on Qikiqtaruk - Herschel Island (Yukon coast, Canada). The RTS was classified into an undisturbed, a disturbed (thermokarst-affected) and a nearshore zone and sampled systematically along transects. Samples were analyzed for total and dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen (TOC, DOC, TN, DN), stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C-TOC, δ¹³C-DOC), and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), which were compared between the zones. C/N-ratios, δ¹³C signatures, and ammonium (NH₄-N) concentrations were used as indicators for OM degradation along with biomarkers (n-alkanes, n-fatty acids, n-alcohols). Our results show that OM significantly decreases after disturbance with a TOC and DOC loss of 77 and 55% and a TN and DN loss of 53 and 48%, respectively. C/N-ratios decrease significantly, whereas NH₄-N concentrations slightly increase in freshly thawed material. In the nearshore zone, OM contents are comparable to the disturbed zone. We suggest that the strong decrease in OM is caused by initial dilution with melted massive ice and immediate offshore transport via the thaw stream. In the mudpool and thaw stream, OM is subject to degradation, whereas in the slump floor the nitrogen decrease is caused by recolonizing vegetation. Within the nearshore zone of the ocean, heavier portions of OM are directly buried in marine sediments close to shore. We conclude that RTS have profound impacts on coastal environments in the Arctic. They mobilize nutrients from permafrost, substantially decrease OM contents and provide fresh water and nutrients at a point source.

Coastal changes in the Arctic

The arctic environment is changing: air temperatures, major river discharges and open water season length have increased, and storm intensities and tracks are changing. Thirteen quantitative studies of the rates of coastline position change throughout the Arctic show that recently observed environmental changes have not led to ubiquitously or continuously increasing coastal erosion rates, which currently range between 0 and 2 m/yr when averaged for the arctic shelf seas. Current data is probably insufficient, both spatially and temporally, however, to capture change at decadal to sub-decadal time scales. In this context, we describe the current understanding of arctic coastal geomorphodynamics with an emphasis on erosional regimes of coasts with ice-rich sedimentary deposits in the Laptev, East Siberian and Beaufort seas, where local coastal erosion can exceed 20 m/yr. We also examine coasts with lithified (rocky) substrates where geomorphodynamics are intensified by rapid glacial retreat. Coastlines of Svalbard, Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago are less frequently studied than ice-rich continental coasts of North America and Siberia, and studies often focus on coastal sections composed of unlithified material. As air temperature and sea ice duration and extent change, longer thaw and wave seasons will intensify coastal dynamics in the Arctic.

Microbial functional potential and community composition in permafrost-affected soils of the NW Canadian Arctic

Permafrost-affected soils are among the most obvious ecosystems in which current microbial controls on organic matter decomposition are changing as a result of global warming. Warmer conditions in polygonal tundra will lead to a deepening of the seasonal active layer, provoking changes in microbial processes and possibly resulting in exacerbated carbon degradation under increasing anoxic conditions. To identify current microbial assemblages in carbon rich, water saturated permafrost environments, four polygonal tundra sites were investigated on Herschel Island and the Yukon Coast, Western Canadian Arctic. Ion Torrent sequencing of bacterial and archaeal 16S rRNA amplicons revealed the presence of all major microbial soil groups and indicated a local, vertical heterogeneity of the polygonal tundra soil community with increasing depth. Microbial diversity was found to be highest in the surface layers, decreasing towards the permafrost table. Quantitative PCR analysis of functional genes involved in carbon and nitrogen-cycling revealed a high functional potential in the surface layers, decreasing with increasing active layer depth. We observed that soil properties driving microbial diversity and functional potential varied in each study site. These results highlight the small-scale heterogeneity of geomorphologically comparable sites, greatly restricting generalizations about the fate of permafrost-affected environments in a warming Arctic.

Past and present permafrost temperatures in the Abisko area: redrilling of boreholes

Monitoring of permafrost has been ongoing since 1978 in the Abisko area, northernmost Sweden, when measurements of active layer thickness started. In 1980, boreholes were drilled in three mires in the area to record permafrost temperatures. Recordings were made twice per year, and the last data were obtained in 2002. During the International Polar Year (2007-2008), new boreholes were drilled within the 'Back to the Future' (BTF) and 'Thermal State of Permafrost' (TSP) projects that enabled year-round temperature monitoring. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) in the mires are close to 0 degrees C, ranging from -0.16 to -0.47 degrees C at 5 m depth. Data from the boreholes show increasing ground temperatures in the upper and lower part by 0.4 to 1 degree C between 1980 and 2002. At one mire, permafrost thickness has decreased from 15 m in 1980 to ca. 9 m in 2009, with an accelerating thawing trend during the last decade.

Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.