Time series of cases and treatment outcomes from tuberculosis in Sergipe, 2012-2021

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this study were: (1) to analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis treatment outcomes in the state of Sergipe; (2) to identify the existence of seasonality of tuberculosis; (3) to verify the influence of the rapid molecular test (MTB-RIF) in the time series of tuberculosis and its treatment outcomes in the state of Sergipe; and (4) to verify treatment outcomes.

METHODS

Ecological study on tuberculosis and three treatment outcomes (cure, interruption of treatment, and death) extracted from Datasus. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated for the crude occurrences of cases and deaths and the proportions of cure and interruption of treatment (%). The time series was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression from Jan to Dec/2021.

RESULTS

The total incidence rate was 36.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with an increase of 0.44% per month (95%CI 0.35; 0.54). The cure rate was 64.0% with a steady trend (p>0.05). The percentage of treatment interruption was 13.3%, with a reduction of -0.73%/month (95%CI -1.11; -0.34). The total mortality rate was 1.92 deaths/100,000 inhabitants with a stationary trend. After the implementation of the MTB-RIF, there was an increase in the incidence rate of 0.65% per month. Seasonality was not identified in any of the analyses performed (p>0.05).

CONCLUSION

There was an increase in incidence rates, reduction in treatment interruption and mortality in the state of Sergipe. Seasonality was not identified. The rapid molecular test showed a growth effect on the incidence rate.

Hepatitis mortality in Brazil and regions, 2001-2020: temporal trend and spatial analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the spatial distribution and the temporal trend of the hepatitis mortality rate in Brazil from 2001 to 2020.

METHODS

Ecological, temporal, and spatial study on mortality from hepatitis in Brazil with data from the Mortality Information System (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade - SIM/DATASUS). Information was stratified by year of diagnosis, region of the country, municipalities (of residence). Standardized mortality rates (SMR) were calculated. The temporal trend was estimated by Prais-Winsten regression and the spatial distribution by the Global Moran Index (GMI).

RESULTS

The highest SMR means in Brazil were for Chronic viral hepatitis with 0.88 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants (SD=0.16), followed by Other viral hepatitis with 0.22/100,000 (SD=0.11). In Brazil, the temporal trend of mortality from Hepatitis A was -8.11% per year (95%CI -9.38; -6.82), while for Hepatitis B it was -4.13% (95%CI -6.03; -2.20), of Other viral hepatitis of -7.84% (95%CI -14.11; -1.11) and of Unspecified Hepatitis -5.67% per year (95%CI -6.22; -5.10). Mortality due to chronic viral hepatitis increased by 5.74% (95%CI 3.47; 8.06) in the North and 4.95% in the Northeast (95%CI 0.27; 9.85). The Moran Index (I) for Hepatitis A was 0.470 (p<0.001), for Hepatitis B 0.846 (p<0.001), Chronic viral hepatitis=0.666 (p<0.001), other viral hepatitis=0.713 (p<0.001), and Unspecified Hepatitis=0.712 (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The temporal trend of hepatitis A, B, other viral, and unspecified hepatitis was decreasing in Brazil, while mortality from chronic hepatitis was increasing in the North and Northeast.

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of AIDS in Brazil and regions between 2005 and 2020

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the spatial distribution and the temporal trend of the AIDS incidence rate in Brazil from 2005 to 2020.

METHODS

This is an ecological, temporal, and spatial study on AIDS cases in Brazil. Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System were stratified by year of diagnosis, region of the country/municipalities of residence, and age group (over 13 years). Incidence rates were calculated for temporal estimation using the Joinpoint model, as well as Spatial Empirical Bayes (SEB) for spatial distribution, using the Kernel density estimator.

RESULTS

The incidence rate in Brazil, in 2020, was 17.69 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. The general trend (2005-2020) was decrease in Brazil (Annual Percent Change - APC=-2.0%), in the Southeast (APC=-4.4%) and South (APC=-3.0%) regions. The North (APC=2.3%) showed an increase trend, whereas the Southeast and Midwest regions were stationary (p>0.05). Brazil, Southeast, South, and Midwest regions showed a decrease trend in most age groups. The Northeast and North regions showed an increase in the age groups of 13-29 years and 13-24 years, respectively. The Kernel estimator showed clusters with SEB above 30/10 thousand inhabitants in the states of Paraíba, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina.

CONCLUSION

Brazil, the Southeast, and South regions showed a decrease in the incidence rate, whereas the North region increased and the Northeast and Midwest regions were stationary. The Southeast, South, and Northeast regions presented the largest clusters of SEB.

Distribuição espacial e tendência temporal da AIDS no Brasil e regiões entre 2005 e 2020

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal da taxa de incidência de AIDS no Brasil no período de 2005 a 2020. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, temporal e espacial sobre os casos de AIDS no Brasil. Dados provenientes do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde foram estratificados por ano do diagnóstico, região do país/municípios de residência e faixa etária (acima de 13 anos). Foram calculadas as taxas de incidência (TI) para a estimativa temporal por meio do modelo de joinpoint, bem como as taxas bayesianas empíricas espaciais (TBEE) para a distribuição espacial pelo estimador de densidade de Kernel. Resultados: A TI no Brasil no ano de 2020 foi de 17,69 casos para cada 100 mil habitantes. A tendência geral (2005–2020) foi de diminuição no Brasil (variação percentual anual — VPA=-2,0%), Sudeste (VPA=-4,4%) e Sul (VPA=-3,0%). O Norte (VPA=2,3%) demonstrou aumento, enquanto o Sudeste e Centro-oeste foram estacionários (p>0,05). O Brasil, Sudeste, Sul e Centro-oeste apresentaram tendência de diminuição na maioria das faixas etárias. O Nordeste e Norte apresentaram aumento nas faixas etárias de 13 a 29 anos e 13 a 24 anos, respectivamente. O estimador de Kernel demonstrou conglomerados com TBEE acima de 30/10 mil habitantes nos estados de Paraíba, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina. Conclusão: O Brasil e as Regiões Sudeste e Sul apresentaram diminuição da TI, enquanto o Norte aumentou e o Nordeste e Centro-oeste foram estacionários. As Regiões Sudeste, Sul e Nordeste apresentaram os maiores conglomerados das TBEE.