[Incidence of postoperative complications in Chinese patients with gastric or colorectal cancer based on a national, multicenter, prospective, cohort study]

Objective: To investigate the incidence of postoperative complications in Chinese patients with gastric or colorectal cancer, and to evaluate the risk factors for postoperative complications. Methods: This was a national, multicenter, prospective, registry-based, cohort study of data obtained from the database of the Prevalence of Abdominal Complications After Gastro- enterological Surgery (PACAGE) study sponsored by the China Gastrointestinal Cancer Surgical Union. The PACAGE database prospectively collected general demographic characteristics, protocols for perioperative treatment, and variables associated with postoperative complications in patients treated for gastric or colorectal cancer in 20 medical centers from December 2018 to December 2020. The patients were grouped according to the presence or absence of postoperative complications. Postoperative complications were categorized and graded in accordance with the expert consensus on postoperative complications in gastrointestinal oncology surgery and Clavien-Dindo grading criteria. The incidence of postoperative complications of different grades are presented as bar charts. Independent risk factors for occurrence of postoperative complications were identified by multifactorial unconditional logistic regression. Results: The study cohort comprised 3926 patients with gastric or colorectal cancer, 657 (16.7%) of whom had a total of 876 postoperative complications. Serious complications (Grade III and above) occurred in 4.0% of patients (156/3926). The rate of Grade V complications was 0.2% (7/3926). The cohort included 2271 patients with gastric cancer with a postoperative complication rate of 18.1% (412/2271) and serious complication rate of 4.7% (106/2271); and 1655 with colorectal cancer, with a postoperative complication rate of 14.8% (245/1655) and serious complication rate of 3.0% (50/1655). The incidences of anastomotic leakage in patients with gastric and colorectal cancer were 3.3% (74/2271) and 3.4% (56/1655), respectively. Abdominal infection was the most frequently occurring complication, accounting for 28.7% (164/572) and 39.5% (120/304) of postoperative complications in patients with gastric and colorectal cancer, respectively. The most frequently occurring grade of postoperative complication was Grade II, accounting for 65.4% (374/572) and 56.6% (172/304) of complications in patients with gastric and colorectal cancers, respectively. Multifactorial analysis identified (1) the following independent risk factors for postoperative complications in patients in the gastric cancer group: preoperative comorbidities (OR=2.54, 95%CI: 1.51-4.28, P<0.001), neoadjuvant therapy (OR=1.42, 95%CI:1.06-1.89, P=0.020), high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scores (ASA score 2 points:OR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.23-2.07, P<0.001, ASA score ≥3 points:OR=0.43, 95% CI: 0.25-0.73, P=0.002), operative time >180 minutes (OR=1.81, 95% CI: 1.42-2.31, P<0.001), intraoperative bleeding >50 mL (OR=1.29,95%CI: 1.01-1.63, P=0.038), and distal gastrectomy compared with total gastrectomy (OR=0.65,95%CI: 0.51-0.83, P<0.001); and (2) the following independent risk factors for postoperative complications in patients in the colorectal cancer group: female (OR=0.60, 95%CI: 0.44-0.80, P<0.001), preoperative comorbidities (OR=2.73, 95%CI: 1.25-5.99, P=0.030), neoadjuvant therapy (OR=1.83, 95%CI:1.23-2.72, P=0.008), laparoscopic surgery (OR=0.47, 95%CI: 0.30-0.72, P=0.022), and abdominoperineal resection compared with low anterior resection (OR=2.74, 95%CI: 1.71-4.41, P<0.001). Conclusion: Postoperative complications associated with various types of infection were the most frequent complications in patients with gastric or colorectal cancer. Although the risk factors for postoperative complications differed between patients with gastric cancer and those with colorectal cancer, the presence of preoperative comorbidities, administration of neoadjuvant therapy, and extent of surgical resection, were the commonest factors associated with postoperative complications in patients of both categories.

Analysis of Efficacy and Safety of Small-Volume-Plasma Artificial Liver Model in the Treatment of Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

To explore the efficacy and safety of a small-volume-plasma artificial liver support system (ALSS) in the treatment of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). A retrospective analysis was performed. All ACLF patients received ALSS of plasma exchange & double plasma molecular absorb system (PE+DPMAS) treatment, and successfully completed this treatment. Patients were divided into small-volume and half-volume plasma groups. We compared the changes of the indicators on liver function, kidney function, blood coagulation function, and blood ammonia level before and after PE+DPMAS treatment; we compared the short-term and long-term curative effects between small-volume and half-volume plasma groups; and the factors influencing Week 4 and Week 12 mortality of ACLF patients were analyzed. The Week 4 improvement rates were 63.96 % and 66.86 % in the small-volume and half-volume plasma groups, respectively. The Week 12 survival rates in the small-volume-plasma and half-volume plasma groups were 66.72 % and 64.61 %, respectively. We found several risk factors affecting Week 4 and Week 12 mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves suggested no significant difference in Week 4 and Week 12 survival rates between the small-volume and half-volume plasma groups (P=0.34). The small-volume-plasma PE+DPMAS treatment could effectively reduce bilirubin and bile acids, and this was an approach with high safety and few complications, similar to the half-volume-plasma PE+DPMAS treatment. The small-volume-plasma PE+DPMAS has the advantage of greatly reducing the need for intraoperative plasma, which is especially of importance in times of shortage of plasma.

Comparison of imputation methods for missing production data of dairy cattle

Nowadays, vast amounts of data representing feed intake, growth, and environmental impact of individual animals are being recorded in on-farm settings. Despite their apparent use, data collected in real-world applications often have missing values in one or several variables, due to reasons including human error, machine error, or sampling frequency misalignment across multiple variables. Since incomplete datasets are less valuable for downstream data analysis, it is important to address the missing value problem properly. One option may be to reduce the dataset to a subset that contains only complete data, but considerable data may be lost via this process. The current study aimed to compare imputation methods for the estimation of missing values in a raw dataset of dairy cattle including 454 553 records collected from 629 cows between 2009 and 2020. The dataset was subjected to a cleaning process that reduced its size to 437 075 observations corresponding to 512 cows. Missing values were present in four variables: concentrate DM intake (CDMI, missing percentage = 2.30%), forage DM intake (FDMI, 8.05%), milk yield (MY, 15.12%), and BW (64.33%). After removing all missing values, the resulting dataset (n = 129 353) was randomly sampled five times to create five independent subsets that exhibit the same missing data percentages as the cleaned dataset. Four univariate and nine multivariate imputation methods (eight machine learning methods and the MissForest method) were applied and evaluated on the five repeats, and average imputation performance was reported for each repeat. The results showed that Random Forest was overall the best imputation method for this type of data and had a lower mean squared prediction error and higher concordance correlation coefficient than the other imputation methods for all imputed variables. Random Forest performed particularly well for imputing CDMI, MY, and BW, compared to imputing FDMI.

Review: When worlds collide - poultry modeling in the 'Big Data' era

Within poultry production systems, models have provided vital decision support, opportunity analysis, and performance optimization capabilities to nutritionists and producers for decades. In recent years, due to the advancement of digital and sensor technologies, 'Big Data' streams have emerged, optimally positioned to be analyzed by machine-learning (ML) modeling approaches, with strengths in forecasting and prediction. This review explores the evolution of empirical and mechanistic models in poultry production systems, and how these models may interact with new digital tools and technologies. This review will also examine the emergence of ML and Big Data in the poultry production sector, and the emergence of precision feeding and automation of poultry production systems. There are several promising directions for the field, including: (1) application of Big Data analytics (e.g., sensor-based technologies, precision feeding systems) and ML methodologies (e.g., unsupervised and supervised learning algorithms) to feed more precisely to production targets given a 'known' individual animal, and (2) combination and hybridization of data-driven and mechanistic modeling approaches to bridge decision support with improved forecasting capabilities.

Epidemiological characteristics of centenarian deaths in China during 2013-2020: A trend and subnational analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies that comprehensively address the characteristics of centenarian deaths are rare. The present study aimed to examine the characteristics of centenarian deaths in China and their changing trends.

METHODS

Data on centenarian deaths between 2013 and 2020 were obtained from the national mortality surveillance system of China, including date, place of death (PoD), and underlying cause of death (CoD). Descriptive analyses were performed to understand the epidemiological characteristics, and a joinpoint regression model was adopted to examine the changing trends in the proportions of different PoDs, CoDs, and centenarian deaths accounting for all deaths and deaths among people aged 65 years and older.

RESULTS

There were 46,938 registered centenarian deaths between 2013 and 2020 that included 34,311 females (73.10%) and 12,627 males (26.90%). January (12.05%), February (9.99%), and December (9.74%) were the top three months with the highest number of deaths. The proportions of deaths that occurred in homes, hospitals, and nursing homes were 81.71%, 13.63%, and 2.68%, respectively. The proportion of deaths in nursing homes increased by 9.60% (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 6.4-12.9%) from 2014 to 2020. Heart disease (35.72%) was the leading cause of death, followed by respiratory diseases (17.63%), cerebrovascular disease (15.60%), and old age (11.22%). The proportion of respiratory diseases decreased by 4.8% (95% CI, -8.8 to -0.7%), and the proportion of deaths from old age decreased by 2.3% (95% CI, -4.4 to -0.1%) per year. Shanghai had the highest proportions of deaths in hospitals (39.38%) and nursing homes (14.68%). Sichuan had the highest proportion of deaths attributed to respiratory diseases (32.30%), while Jiangsu (26.58%) and Zhejiang (23.61%) had the highest proportions of deaths from old age.

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike other countries, centenarian deaths in China are characterized by a higher proportion of home and heart disease deaths, and this death pattern differs across provinces.

An integrated strategy of spectrum-effect relationship and near-infrared spectroscopy rapid evaluation based on back propagation neural network for quality control of Paeoniae Radix Alba

The quantitative analysis of near-infrared spectroscopy in traditional Chinese medicine has still deficiencies in the selection of the measured indexes. Then Paeoniae Radix Alba is one of the famous "Eight Flavors of Zhejiang" herbs, however, it lacks the pharmacodynamic support, and cannot reflect the quality of Paeoniae Radix Alba accurately and reasonably. In this study, the spectrum-effect relationship of the anti-inflammatory activity of Paeoniae Radix Alba was established. Then based on the obtained bioactive component groups, the genetic algorithm, back propagation neural network, was combined with near-infrared spectroscopy to establish calibration models for the content of the bioactive components of Paeoniae Radix Alba. Finally, three bioactive components, paeoniflorin, 1,2,3,4,6-O-pentagalloylglucose, and benzoyl paeoniflorin, were successfully obtained. Their near-infrared spectroscopy content models were also established separately, and the validation sets results showed the coefficient of determination (R² > 0.85), indicating that good calibration statistics were obtained for the prediction of key pharmacodynamic components. As a result, an integrated analytical method of spectrum-effect relationship combined with near-infrared spectroscopy and deep learning algorithm was first proposed to assess and control the quality of traditional Chinese medicine, which is the future development trend for the rapid inspection of traditional Chinese medicine.

Can global or national disability weights represent provincial level?

BACKGROUND

A universal set of disability weights(DWs) is mainly based on the survey of North America, Australia and Europe, whereas the participants in Asia was limited. The debate hasn't yet settled whether a universal DW is desirable or useful.The focus of the debate is its representativenes-s.After all, the DWs come from people's subjective evaluation of pain, and they may vary according to cultural background.The differences of the DWs could have implications for the magnitude or ranking of disease burdens.The DWs of Anhui Province has not been completely presented.This paper aims to obtain the DWs suitable for the general population of Anhui Province of China, and attempts to explore the differences between different DWs by comparing the DWs with the similar-cultural background and the DWs with cross-cultural background.

METHODS

A web-based survey was conducted to estimate the DWs for 206 health states of Anhui province in 2020. Paired comparison (PC) data were analyzed and anchored by probit regression and fitting loess model. We compared the DWs in Anhui with other provinces in China and those in Global burden of disease (GBD) and Japan.

RESULTS

Compared with Anhui province, the proportion of health states which showed 2 times or more differences ranged from 1.94% (Henan) to 11.17% (Sichuan) in China and domestic provinces. It was 19.88% in Japan and 21.51% in GBD 2013 respectively. In Asian countries or regions, most of the health states with top 15 DWs belonged to the category of mental, behavioral, and substance use disorders. But in GBD, most were infectious diseases and cancer. The differences of DWs in neighboring provinces were smaller than other geographically distant provinces or countries.

CONCLUSION

PC responses were largely consistent across very distinct settings,but the exceptions do need to be faced squarely.The differences of DWs among similar-cultural regions were smaller than cross-cultural regions. There is an urgent need for relevant gold standards.

Establishment of Male and Female Eucommia Fingerprints by UPLC Combined with OPLS-DA Model and Its Application

Eucommia ulmoides Oliver is a dioecious plant, which plays an important role in traditional Chinese medicine. However, there has not yet been any research on male and female E. ulmoides. The UPLC fingerprints and OPLS-DA approach were able to quickly and easily identify and quantify E. ulmoides and differentiate between the male and female fingerprints. In this study, we optimized the UPLC conditions and analyzed them to investigate fingerprints of twenty-four extracts of Eucommiae Cortex (EC) and twenty-four extracts of Eucommiae Folium (EF) under optimal conditions. It was demonstrated that thirteen and twelve substances were possible chemical markers for EC and EF male and female discrimination and that the level of these markers - chlorogenic acid and protocatechuic acid - was many times higher in male than in female. This approach offered a reference for quality control and precise treatment of male and female E. ulmoides in the clinic.

Spatiotemporal trends and ecological determinants of cardiovascular mortality among 2844 counties in mainland China, 2006-2020: a Bayesian modeling study of national mortality registries

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in China. No previous study has reported CVD mortality at county-level, and little was known about the nonmedical ecological factors of CVD mortality at such small scale in mainland China. Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of CVD mortality and examining its nonmedical ecological factors would be of great importance to tailor local public health policies.

METHODS

By using national mortality registration data in China, this study used hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian model to demonstrate spatiotemporal distribution of CVD mortality in 2844 counties during 2006 to 2020 and investigate how nonmedical ecological determinants have affected CVD mortality inequities from the spatial perspectives.

RESULTS

During 2006-2020, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD decreased from 284.77 per 100,000 in 2006 to 241.34 per 100,000 in 2020. Among 2844 counties, 1144 (40.22%) were hot spots counties with a higher CVD mortality risk compared to the national average and located mostly in northeast, north central, and westernmost regions; on the contrary, 1551 (54.53%) were cold spots counties and located mostly in south and southeast coastal counties. CVD mortality risk decreased from 2006 to 2020 was larger in counties where CVD mortality rate had been higher in 2006 in most of the counties, vice versa. Nationwide, nighttime light intensity (NTL) was the major influencing factor of CVD mortality, a higher NTL appeared to be negatively associated with a lower CVD mortality, with one unit increase in NTL, and the CVD mortality risk will decrease 11% (relative risk of NTL was estimated as 0.89 with 95% confidence interval of 0.83-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial between-county discrepancies of CVD mortality distribution were observed during past 15 years in mainland China. Nonmedical ecological determinants were estimated to significantly explain the overall and local spatiotemporal patterns of this CVD mortality risk. Targeted considerations are needed to integrate primary care with clinical care through intensifying further strategies to narrow unequally distribution of CVD mortality at local scale. The approach to county-level analysis with small area models has the potential to provide novel insights into Chinese disease-specific mortality burden.

[A multicenter retrospective study on the efficacy of different anti-reflux reconstruction methods after proximal gastrectomy for gastric cancer]

Objective: To examine the clinical efficacy of 3 anti-reflux methods of digestive tract reconstruction after proximal gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Methods: The clinical data and follow-up data of gastric cancer patients who underwent anti-reflux reconstruction after proximal gastrectomy in 11 medical centers of China from September 2016 to August 2021 were retrospectively collected, including 273 males and 65 females, aging of (63±10) years (range: 28 to 91 years). Among them, 159 cases were performed with gastric tube anastomosis (GTA), 107 cases with double tract reconstruction (DTR), and 72 cases with double-flap technique (DFT), respectively. The duration of operation, length of postoperative hospital stay and early postoperative complications (referring to Clavien-Dindo classification) of different anti-reflux reconstruction methods were assessed. Body mass index, hemoglobin and albumin were used to reflect postoperative nutritional status. Reflux esophagitis was graded according to Los Angeles criteria based on the routinely gastroscopy within 12 months after surgery. The postoperative quality of life (QoL) was evaluated by Visick score system. The ANOVA analysis, Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test, χ² test and Fisher's exact test were used for comparison between multiple groups, and further comparison among groups were performed with LSD, Tamhane's test or Bonferroni corrected χ² test. The mixed effect model was used to compare the trends of Body mass index, hemoglobin and albumin over time among different groups. Results: The operation time of DFT was significantly longer than that of GTA and DTR ((352±63) minutes vs. (221±66) minutes, (352±63) minutes vs. (234±61) minutes, both P<0.01). The incidence of early complications with Clavien-Dindo grade Ⅱ to Ⅴ in GTA, DFT and DTR groups was 17.0% (27/159), 9.7% (7/72) and 10.3% (11/107), respectively, without significant difference among these three groups (χ²=3.51, P=0.173). Body mass index decreased more significantly in GTA than DFT group at 6 and 12 months after surgery (mean difference=1.721 kg/m², P<0.01; mean difference=2.429 kg/m², P<0.01). body mass index decreased significantly in DTR compared with DFT at 12 months after surgery (mean difference=1.319 kg/m², P=0.027). There was no significant difference in hemoglobin or albumin fluctuation between different reconstruction methods perioperative. The incidence of reflux esophagitis one year after surgery in DTR group was 12.9% (4/31), which was lower than that in DFT (45.9% (17/37), χ²=8.63, P=0.003). Follow-up of postoperative quality of life showed the incidence of Visick grade 2 to 4 in DFT group was lower than that in GTA group (10.4% (7/67) vs. 34.6% (27/78), χ²=11.70, P=0.018), while there was no significant difference between DFT and DTR group (10.4% (7/67) vs. 22.2% (8/36, P>0.05). Conclusions: Compared with GTA and DTR, DFT is more time-consuming, but there is no significant difference in early complications among three methods. DFT reconstruction is more conducive to maintain postoperative nutritional status and improve QoL, especially compared with GTA. The risk of reflux esophagitis after DTR reconstruction is lower than that of DFT.

[Predictive value of mismatch negativity and P3a combined with electroencephalogram reactivity for the prognosis of comatose patients after severe brain injury]

Objective: To explore the clinical value of mismatch negativity and P3a combined with electroencephalogram (EEG) reactivity to predict the prognosis of patients after severe brain injury. Methods: The clinical data of patients with severe brain injury who were admitted to the neurosurgical intensive care unit of Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from October 2019 to July 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent evaluation of auditory mismatch negativity (MMN), P3a, and EEG reactivity (EEG-R) within 28 days after the onset of coma. Patients were divided into two groups using the 3-month Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) after coma onset, a GOS score of 3-5 was defined as a favorable outcome, and GOS grades 1-2 were defined as an unfavorable outcome. The correlation between clinical indicators and prognosis was analyzed, and the predictive values of statistically significant indicators and the cut-off values were determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: A total of 48 patients were enrolled in the study, including 35 males and 13 females (age range:18-68 years old). Twenty-nine of the patients had a favorable outcome and 19 had an unfavorable outcome. The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), EEG-R, absolute amplitude of MMN at Fz (FzMMNA), and amplitude of P3a at Cz (CzP3aA) were significantly correlated with the prognosis of comatose patients (P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only EEG-R, FzMMNA, and CzP3aA were independent predictors for the prognosis of comatose patients after severe brain injury (all P<0.05), with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.757 (0.613-0.900), 0.912 (0.830-0.994) and 0.887 (0.793-0.981), respectively. The combination of FzMMNA and CzP3aA and the combinationof EEG-R, FzMMNA and CzP3aA increased the value of AUC to 0.942 (0.879-1.000) and 0.964 (0.920-1.000), respectively. Moreover, a cut-off value of 1.27 μV and 2.64 μV for FzMMNA and CzP3aA, respectively, yielded the best sensitivity and specificity for the prognosis prediction of patients with severe brain injury [FzMMNA: 89.66%(26/29) and 84.21%(16/19); CzP3aA:82.76%(24/29) and 84.21%(16/19)]. Conclusion: This study indicates that the combination of EEG-R, FzMMNA, and CzP3aA may serve as a favorable prognostic indicator for comatose patients after severe brain injury.

[Myxiod pleomorphic liposarcoma: a clinicopathological and molecular genetic analysis of six cases]

Objective: To investigate the clinicopathologic and molecular genetic characteristics of myxoid pleomorphic liposarcoma (MPLPS). Methods: Six cases of MPLPS diagnosed and consulted in Fujian Provincial Hospital from 2015 to 2021 were collected for histomorphological observation, immunohistochemistry, and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) detection of DDIT3 (CHOP) gene translocation and MDM2/CDK4 gene amplification. Results: There were four males and two females, aged 26-74 years (mean 53.8 years). The tumor size was 3.8-16.0 cm (mean 11.8 cm). All six cases had similar histopathologic features, showing overlapping histologic morphology of myxoid liposarcoma and pleomorphic liposarcoma. Four cases (4/6) were positive for S-100 protein, and the Ki-67 index was 50%-95%. All cases (6/6) were negative for DDIT3 (CHOP) translocation and MDM2/CDK4 amplification by FISH. TP53 (p.R248w) germline mutation was found in one case. Conclusions: MPLPS is a rare subtype of liposarcoma, characterized by overlapping morphology of myxoid liposarcoma and pleomorphic liposarcoma. Genetically, a few of them have TP53 gene germline mutations, but they lack of DDIT3 (CHOP) translocation or MDM2/CDK4 amplification.

Assessing The Utility of D-Dimer Driven Anticoagulation Strategies In Severely Obese Patients With COVID-19

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Many studies to date have documented significant inflammatory vascular sequelae in association with COVID-19. Current guidelines suggest an initial strategy of therapeutic-dose anticoagulation to non-critically ill, hospitalized patients requiring low-flow oxygen and a concurrent D-dimer level above the upper limit of normal. However, the utility of D-dimer values in predicting thrombosis in severely obese patients are equivocal to poor, with prior evidence suggesting falsely elevated levels with greater BMI. Given the weight-based dosing of heparin, these patients may also be inadvertently at elevated risk for major bleeds.

Purpose

To examine the utility of D-dimer levels in risk stratification and anticoagulation therapy in non-critically ill COVID-19 patients with severe obesity.

Methods

In this single-center, retrospective study, 32 severely obese patients (defined as BMI > 40) hospitalized with COVID-19 and requiring low flow oxygen delivery, without ICU level of care were analyzed. Clinical outcomes were compared between groups receiving therapeutic versus prophylactic doses of anticoagulation. All were treated with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) per hospital protocol. The following data points were examined: length of hospitalization, mortality, anticoagulation therapy, initial d-dimer levels, thrombotic events, minor/major bleeds, and oxygen modality.

Results

In total, 78% of patients initially presented with a D-dimer level above the upper limit of normal, with 53% of patients meeting criteria for therapeutic anticoagulation. However, there were no significant differences in incidence of thrombotic events, mean length of hospitalization or overall mortality. Furthermore, despite utilization of appropriate therapeutic anticoagulation, it did not reduce the overall use of oxygen support requirements, including high flow oxygen or non-invasive ventilation, when compared to individuals receiving prophylactic dosing.

Conclusion

The clinical utility of D-dimer levels for guiding anticoagulation therapy in severely obese patients with COVID-19 may be limited. Here, we demonstrate that therapeutic dose approaches have nonsignificant differences in clinical outcomes when compared to prophylactic doses in this distinct population.

The burden of pneumoconiosis in China: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Pneumoconiosis refers to a class of serious diseases threatening the health of workers exposed to coal or silicosis dust. However, the burden of pneumoconiosis is unavailable in China.

Methods

Incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from pneumoconiosis and its subtypes in China were estimated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 using a Bayesian meta-regression method. The trend of the burden from pneumoconiosis was analyzed using percentage change and annualized rate of change (ARC) during the period 1990–2019. The relationship between subnational socio-demographic index (SDI) and the ARC of age-standardised death rate was measured using Spearman’s Rank-Order Correlation.

Results

In 2019, there were 136.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 113.7–162.5) thousand new cases, 10.2 (8.1–13.6) thousand deaths, and 608.7 (473.6–779.4) thousand DALYs from pneumoconiosis in China. Of the global burdens from pneumoconiosis, more than 60% were in China. Both the total number of new cases and DALYs from pneumoconiosis was keeping increasing from 1990 to 2019. In contrast, the age-standardised incidence, death, and DALY rates from pneumoconiosis and its subtypes, except for the age-standardised incidence rate of silicosis, and age-standardised death rate of asbestosis, experienced a significant decline during the same period. The subnational age-standardised death rates were higher in western China than in eastern China. Meanwhile, the subnational ARC of age-standardised death rates due to pneumoconiosis and its subtypes were significantly negatively correlated with SDI in 2019.

Conclusion

China suffers the largest health loss from pneumoconiosis in the world. Reducing the burden of pneumoconiosis is still an urgent task in China.

Spatial variations and social determinants of life expectancy in China, 2005-2020: A population-based spatial panel modelling study

BACKGROUND

Social determinants of health (SDOH) produce a broad range of life expectancy (LE) disparities. In China, limited literatures were found to report association between SDOH and LE at ecological level during a consecutive period of time from the spatial perspectives. This study aimed to determine the existence, quantify the magnitude, and interpret the association between SDOH and LE in China.

METHODS

Provincial-level LE were estimated from mortality records during 2005-2020 from National Mortality Surveillance System in China. A spatial panel Durbin model was used to investigate LE associated SDOH proxies. Spatial spillover effects were introduced to interpret direct and indirect effects caused by SDOH during long-term and short-term period on LE disparities.

FINDINGS

Nationwide, LE increased from 73.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 71.3, 74.4) years to 77.7 (95%CI: 76.5, 78.7) years from 2005 to 2020. Unequally spatial distribution of LE with High-High clustering in coastal areas and Low-Low clustering in western regions were observed. Locally, it was estimated that SDOH proxies statistically significant related to an increase of LE, including GDP (coefficient: 0.02, 95%CI: 0.00, 0.03), Gini index (coefficient: 2.35, 95%CI: 1.82, 2.88), number of beds in health care institutions (coefficient: 0.02, 95%CI: 0.00, 0.05) and natural growth rate of resident population (coefficient: 0.02, 95%CI: 0.01, 0.02). Direct and indirect effects decomposition during long-term and short-term of LE associated SDOH proxies demonstrated that GDP, urbanization rate, unemployment rate, education attainment, Gini index, number of beds in health care institutions, sex ratio, gross dependence ratio and natural growth rate of resident population not only affected local LE, but also exerted spatial spillover effects towards geographical neighbors.

INTERPRETATION

Spatial variations of LE existed at provincial-level in China. SDOH regarding socioeconomic development and equity, healthcare resources, as well as population characteristics not only affected LE disparities at local scale but also among nearby provinces. Externalities of policy of those SDOH proxies should be took into consideration to promote health equity nationally. Comprehensive approaches on the basis of population strategy should be consolidated to optimize supportive socioeconomic environment and narrow the regional gap to reduce health disparities and increase LE.

FUNDING

National Key Research & Development Program of China (Grant No.2018YFC1315301); Ministry of Education of China Humanities and Social Science General Program (Grant No.18YJC790138).

National Cancer Data Linkage Platform of China: Design, Methods, and Application

BACKGROUND

The National Cancer Center (NCC) and China CDC cooperatively designed a National Cancer Data Linkage (NCDL) Platform to fulfill the task of sharing cancer outcome data through an automatic web-based system.

METHODS

NCC and China CDC established a web-based NCDL Platform to link death information from China CDC with the cancer database from NCC. Overall, 76,708 cancer patients' data were analyzed to assess the feasibility and match rate of the NCDL Platform for 7 major cancers.

RESULTS

The function of the platform includes a data application and approval system, data linkage module, and results visualization system. Through the platform, 38.9% cases were identified as deaths cases from the NCDL Platform in the first 3 years after cancer diagnosis. The linkage rate was highest in liver cancer and lowest in breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The NCDL Platform provides a powerful and efficient way to link national vital statistics with national cancer programs' data. Expanding cancer outcome data linkage may not only improve data collection efficiency, but also improve data use.

Trends and associated factors in place of death among individuals with cardiovascular disease in China, 2008-2020: A population-based study

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death (COD) in China. Understanding the characteristics of place of death (POD) among CVD deaths would be of great importance to evaluate the healthcare service utilization at the end stage of life. Limited studies have reported the POD distribution among CVD deaths, and little was known about the associated factors of hospital CVD deaths.

Methods

By using data from National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) in China, this study presented the characteristics of POD distribution during 2008 and 2020. Afterwards, multilevel logistic regression was used to explore associated factors of hospital CVD deaths and quantify the magnitude to which the spatial variations of hospital CVD deaths could be explained by those associated factors.

Findings

During 2008-2020, there was 7101871 CVD deaths collected by NMSS in China, with 77·13% home deaths and 18·49% hospital deaths. Shanghai (59·40%) had the highest percentage of hospital CVD deaths. Age, sex, ethnicity, marital status, education, occupation, underlying COD were significant influential factors of hospital CVD deaths. Spatial variations were shown at provincial level, with 33·88% of them being explained by factors at individual level.

Interpretation

Home was the leading POD among CVD deaths in China, those CVD decedents characterized as the female, the youngest, Han population, the married, the retiree, lived in urban areas, with higher socioeconomic status and died of chronic CVDs had a higher probability of hospital deaths. Providing accessible and available healthcare services were priorities to improve quality of end-of-life care, significant variations among provinces and sub-population also reminded us of the requirements for equal healthcare resources allocation and multiple options for minorities of POD preference at the end stage of life.

Funding

National Key Research & Development Program of China (grant number 2018YFC1315301)

Trend of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in China and Its Provinces, 2005-2020

Background

To examine trends in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to COPD for all provinces in China during 2005–2020.

Methods

Data for COPD mortality were derived from China National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS). We analyzed the numbers and age-standardized rates of death and YLL due to COPD in China, during 2005–2020. We carried out decomposition analysis to analyze the drivers of change in COPD deaths during the study period.

Results

The age-standardized mortality rate of COPD in China decreased significantly from 99.5/100,000 in 2005 to 50.5/100,000 in 2020. Similar trend was seen in the age-standardized YLL rate. The mortality rate increased with age. During 2005–2020, the age-standardized mortality rate decreased in all provinces (except for Tibet) with the largest decline in Jilin (−77.8%), Henan (−68.4%) and Fujian (−67.1%). The decreased number of deaths was decomposed as population growth (8.5%) and population ageing (69.7%) with offset by decline of age-specific mortality (−87.5%).

Conclusion

COPD remains an important public health problem in China, though significant reductions of COPD mortality and YLL rate were observed. Vigorous prevention and control strategies should be enhanced to improve the quality of life of COPD patients and reduce the premature death caused by COPD in Chinese population.

Mortality and years of life lost of cardiovascular diseases in China, 2005-2020: Empirical evidence from national mortality surveillance system

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is leading cause of death in China. We aimed to provide national and subnational estimates and its change of premature mortality burden of CVD during 2005-2020.

METHODS

Data from multi-source on the basis of national mortality surveillance system (NMSS) was used to estimate mortality and years of life lost (YLL) of total CVD and its subcategories in Chinese population across 31 provinces during 2005-2020.

RESULTS

Estimated CVD deaths increased from 3.09 million in 2005 to 4.58 million in 2020; the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 286.85 per 100,000 in 2005 to 245.39 per 100,000 in 2020. A substantial reduction of 19.27% of CVD premature mortality burden, as measured by age-standardized YLL rate, was observed. Ischemic heart disease (IHD), hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS) were leading 3 causes of CVD death. Marked differences were observed in geographical patterns for total CVD and its subcategories, and it appeared to be lower in areas with higher economic development. Population ageing was dominant driver contributed to CVD deaths increase, followed by population growth. And, age-specific mortality shifts contributed largely to CVD deaths decline in most provinces.

CONCLUSION

Substantial discrepancies were demonstrated in CVD premature mortality burden across China. Targeted considerations were needed to integrate primary care with clinical care through intensifying further strategies for reducing CVD mortality among specific subcategories, high risk population and regions with inadequate healthcare resources.

[Perirectal fascial anatomy and pelvic autonomic nerve preservation during the transanal total mesorectal excision]

The difficulty of transanal total mesorectal excision (TME) is to find the correct dissection plane of perirectal space. As a complex new surgical procedure, the fascial anatomic landmarks of transanal approach operation are more likely to be ignored. It is often found that dissection plane is false after the secondary injury occurs during the operation, which results in the damage of pelvic autonomic nerves. Meanwhile, the mesorectum is easily damaged if the dissection plane is too close to the rectum. Thus, the safety of oncologic outcomes could be limited by difficulty achieving adequate TME quality. The promotion and development of the theory of perirectal fascial anatomy provides a new thought for researchers to design a precise approach for transanal endoscopic surgery. Transanal total mesorectal excision based on fascial anatomy offers a solution to identify the transanal anatomic landmarks precisely and achieves pelvic autonomic nerve preservation. In this paper, the authors focus on the surgical experience of transanal total mesorectal excision based on the theory of perirectal fascial anatomy, and discuss the feature of perirectal fascial anatomy dissection and technique of pelvic autonomic nerve preservation during transanal approach operation.

Estimating causes of out-of-hospital deaths in China: application of SmartVA methods

Background

Most deaths in China occur at home, making it difficult to collect reliable cause of death (CoD) information. Verbal autopsy (VA) was applied using the SmartVA tool to a sample of home deaths in China to explore its feasibility as a means of improving the quality of CoD data.

Methods

The study was carried out in 22 districts in 9 provinces, located in north-east, central, and western areas of China during 2017 and 2018. Trained interviewers selected suitable respondents in each household to collect information using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened and validated electronic VA questionnaire on tablets. The CoD was diagnosed from the interview data using the SmartVA-Analyze 2.0 software (Tariff 2.0).

Results

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) dominated the leading causes of death in all age groups and for both sexes. After redistribution of undetermined causes, stroke (24%), ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (21%), chronic respiratory diseases (11%), and lung cancer (6%) were the leading causes of death. The cause fractions for level-one cause categories and ranking of specific causes were similar between SmartVA and results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

Conclusion

Evidence from this large pilot study suggests that SmartVA is a feasible and plausible tool and could be a valuable tool to improve the quality and standardization of CoD information across China.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00256-1.

Excess mortality in Wuhan city and other parts of China during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak: findings from nationwide mortality registries

OBJECTIVE

To assess excess all cause and cause specific mortality during the three months (1 January to 31 March 2020) of the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) outbreak in Wuhan city and other parts of China.

DESIGN

Nationwide mortality registries.

SETTING

605 urban districts and rural counties in China's nationally representative Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) system.

PARTICIPANTS

More than 300 million people of all ages.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Observed overall and weekly mortality rates from all cause and cause specific diseases for three months (1 January to 31 March 2020) of the covid-19 outbreak compared with the predicted (or mean rates for 2015-19) in different areas to yield rate ratio.

RESULTS

The DSP system recorded 580 819 deaths from January to March 2020. In Wuhan DSP districts (n=3), the observed total mortality rate was 56% (rate ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 1.87) higher than the predicted rate (1147 v 735 per 100 000), chiefly as a result of an eightfold increase in deaths from pneumonia (n=1682; 275 v 33 per 100 000; 8.32, 5.19 to 17.02), mainly covid-19 related, but a more modest increase in deaths from certain other diseases, including cardiovascular disease (n=2347; 408 v 316 per 100 000; 1.29, 1.05 to 1.65) and diabetes (n=262; 46 v 25 per 100 000; 1.83, 1.08 to 4.37). In Wuhan city (n=13 districts), 5954 additional (4573 pneumonia) deaths occurred in 2020 compared with 2019, with excess risks greater in central than in suburban districts (50% v 15%). In other parts of Hubei province (n=19 DSP areas), the observed mortality rates from pneumonia and chronic respiratory diseases were non-significantly 28% and 23% lower than the predicted rates, despite excess deaths from covid-19 related pneumonia. Outside Hubei (n=583 DSP areas), the observed total mortality rate was non-significantly lower than the predicted rate (675 v 715 per 100 000), with significantly lower death rates from pneumonia (0.53, 0.46 to 0.63), chronic respiratory diseases (0.82, 0.71 to 0.96), and road traffic incidents (0.77, 0.68 to 0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Except in Wuhan, no increase in overall mortality was found during the three months of the covid-19 outbreak in other parts of China. The lower death rates from certain non-covid-19 related diseases might be attributable to the associated behaviour changes during lockdown.

[Investigation of 603 medical staff occupational exposure with blood-borne pathogens]

Objective: To investigate the occupational exposure with blood-borne pathogens of medical staff, and explore the protective strategy. Methods: Using cluster sampling method, 603 medical staff with occupational exposure with blood-borne pathogens were analyzed, from July 2014 to July 2018 in a tertiary hospital. Results: In total of 603 occupational exposure incidents, 70.98% (428/603) were freshmen younger than 30 years old. 48.92% (295/603) nurses. The most cases of occupational exposure were in surgery (35.16%, 212/603) . Sharp injury was the major contact manner (86.90%, 524/603) . Hands were the main contact parts (90.38%, 545/603) . Ward (53.57%, 323/603) and the operating room (22.72%, 137/603) were the high-risk place. The most dangerous actions were needle injection (34.83%, 210/603) , surgery (20.89%, 126/603) and finishing/cleaning items (19.73%, 119/603) . The main items lead to injuries were scalp needles (34.73%, 182/524) . The most exposure source was hepatitis B virus (HBV) which occupied 39.30% (237/603) . Exposure source mainly comes from medical devices containing blood (81.92%, 494/603) . To compared the groups (χ(2)=19.940, P<0.01) and titer (t=-8.592, P<0.01) of hepatitis B surface antibody (HBsAb) before and after used prophylactics, the differences were statistically significant. Conclusion: Comprehensive strategies of occupational exposure protection education, operation norms and monitoring management were effective methods to reduce the occupational exposure in the medical staff with blood-borne pathogens.

[Predicting the prognosis for severe brain injury patients: short-latency somatosensory evoked potential combined with electroencephalogram reactivity]

Objective: To explore the the effectiveness of using short-latency somatosensory evoked potential(SLSEP) combined with electroencephalogram(EEG) reactivity to predict the prognosis of severe brain injury(SBI) patients. Methods: Consecutive patients with SBI admitted in neurosurgery intensive care unit(NSICU) at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from July 2018 to January 2019 were prospectively collected. SLSEP and EEG were recorded in these patients in NSICU within two weeks after injury onset. EEG reactivity(EEG-R) was tested during EEG signal stabilization. In addition, the concentrations of serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and S100 protein were also detected. All patients were evaluated with Glasgow Outcome Scale(GOS) during 12 months' follow-up. GOS grade 3 to 5 was defined as favorable group, and GOS grade 1 to 2 was defined as unfavorable group. The association of relevant predictors with patient's prognosis was assessed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate each potential predictor. Results: Forty-three patients were included in the study, with 26 patients of favorable outcomes and 17 patients with unfavorable prognosis. Univariate analysis revealed that the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, the concentration of serum NSE, EEG-R, the amplitude of SLSEP were all associated with the prognosis after 12 months' follow-up. Moreover, the AUC for prediction of favorable prognosis by GCS, NSE, EEG-R, SLSEP was 0.661(95%CI: 0.493-0.829), 0.697(95%CI: 0.531-0.862), 0.718(95%CI: 0.557-0.879) and 0.758(95%CI: 0.609-0.907) respectively. However, there was no significant difference of age, gender, pupillary light reflex and S100 protein between the two groups. Furthermore, multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only SLSEP amplitude (OR=2.058, 95%CI: 0.867-4.888) and EEG-R(OR=3.748, 95%CI: 0.857-16.394) were independent predictors of favorable prognosis, and the prognostic model containing these two variables yielded an predictive performance with an AUC of 0.798. Conclusion: The higher amplitude of SLSEP and the existence of EEG-R are predictors of good prognosis in SBI patients, and the combined use of SLSEP and EEG-R in predicting the prognosis of SBI patients is more reliable.

Mortality and Causes of Death in Primary and Secondary School Students - China, 2018

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?

There were approximately 1.23 million deaths reported among individuals aged 5-19 years worldwide in 2017. Limited attention has been paid to current mortality among primary and secondary school students aged 6-18 years in China.

WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?

In 2018, an estimated 28,519 deaths occurred among primary and secondary school students aged 6-18 years in China with an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 17.66 per 100,000. Substantial disparities existed among sexes, age groups, areas, and regions for different causes of death. Drowning, road traffic injuries, and leukemia were three leading causes of death.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?

Government support, legislation enforcement, multisectoral cooperation, and stakeholder engagement should be initiated to reduce premature deaths among primary and secondary school students in China, especially those due to injuries.

The disease burden attributable to 18 occupational risks in China: an analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

BACKGROUND

China has more than 18% of the global population and over 770 million workers. However, the burden of disease attributable to occupational risks is unavailable in China. We aimed to estimate the burden of disease attributable to occupational exposures at provincial levels from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

We estimated the summary exposure values (SEVs), deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to occupational risk factors in China from 1990 to 2017, based on Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017. There were 18 occupational risks, 22 related causes, and 35 risk-outcome pairs included in this study. Meanwhile, we compared age-standardized death rates attributable to occupational risk factors in provinces of China by socio-demographic index (SDI).

RESULTS

The SEVs of most occupational risks increased from 1990 to 2017. There were 323,833 (95% UI 283,780 - 369,061) deaths and 14,060,210 (12,022,974 - 16,125,763) DALYs attributable to total occupational risks in China, which were 27.9 and 22.1% of corresponding global levels, respectively. For attributable deaths, major risks came from occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes (PGFs), and for the attributable DALYs, from occupational injuries. The attributable burden was higher in males than in females. Compared with high SDI provinces, low SDI provinces, especially Western China, had higher death rates attributable to total occupational risks, occupational PGFs, and occupational injuries.

CONCLUSION

Occupational risks contribute to a huge disease burden in China. The attributable burden is higher in males, and in less developed provinces of Western China, reflecting differences in risk exposure, socioeconomic conditions, and type of jobs. Our study highlights the need for further research and focused policy interventions on the health of workers especially for less developed provinces in China to reduce occupational health losses effectively.

PNPLA3 polymorphism influences the association between high-normal TSH level and NASH in euthyroid adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD

AIM

We aimed to evaluate the association between serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels, within the reference range, and the histological severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and whether this association was modulated by the patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 3 (PNPLA3) rs738409 polymorphism.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We enrolled 327 euthyroid individuals with biopsy-proven NAFLD, who were subdivided into two groups, i.e., a 'strict-normal' TSH group (TSH level 0.4 to 2.5mIU/L; n=283) and a 'high-normal' TSH group (TSH level 2.5 to 5.3mIU/L with normal thyroid hormones; n=44). Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between TSH status and presence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) after stratifying subjects by PNPLA3 genotypes.

RESULTS

Compared to strict-normal TSH group, patients with high-normal TSH levels were younger and had a greater prevalence of NASH and higher histologic NAFLD activity score. After stratifying by PNPLA3 genotypes, the significant association between high-normal TSH levels and presence of NASH was restricted only to carriers of the PNPLA3 G risk allele and remained significant even after adjustment for potential confounding factors (adjusted-odds ratio: 3.279; 95% CI: 1.298-8.284; P=0.012).

CONCLUSION

In euthyroid individuals with biopsy-proven NAFLD, we found a significant association between high-normal TSH levels and NASH. After stratifying by PNPLA3 rs738409 genotypes, this association was observed only among carriers of the PNPLA3 G risk allele.

WHITE STRIPE LEAF8, encoding a deoxyribonucleoside kinase, is involved in chloroplast development in rice

WSL8 encoding a deoxyribonucleoside kinase (dNK) that catalyzes the first step in the salvage pathway of nucleotide synthesis plays an important role in early chloroplast development in rice. The chloroplast is an organelle that converts light energy into chemical energy; therefore, the normal differentiation and development of chloroplast are pivotal for plant survival. Deoxyribonucleoside kinases (dNKs) play an important role in the salvage pathway of nucleotides. However, the relationship between dNKs and chloroplast development remains elusive. Here, we identified a white stripe leaf 8 (wsl8) mutant that exhibited a white stripe leaf phenotype at seedling stage (before the four-leaf stage). The mutant showed a significantly lower chlorophyll content and defective chloroplast morphology, whereas higher reactive oxygen species than the wild type. As the leaf developed, the chlorotic mutant plants gradually turned green, accompanied by the restoration in chlorophyll accumulation and chloroplast ultrastructure. Map-based cloning revealed that WSL8 encodes a dNK on chromosome 5. Compared with the wild type, a C-to-G single base substitution occurred in the wsl8 mutant, which caused a missense mutation (Leu 349 Val) and significantly reduced dNK enzyme activity. A subcellular localization experiment showed the WSL8 protein was targeted in the chloroplast and its transcripts were expressed in various tissues, with more abundance in young leaves and nodes. Ribosome and RNA-sequencing analysis indicated that some components and genes related to ribosome biosynthesis were down-regulated in the mutant. An exogenous feeding experiment suggested that the WSL8 performed the enzymic activity of thymidine kinase, especially functioning in the salvage synthesis of thymidine monophosphate. Our results highlight that the salvage pathway mediated by the dNK is essential for early chloroplast development in rice.

Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality of Four Major Chronic Non-communicable Diseases - China, 1990-2017

What is already known about this topic?

The burden from chronic non-communicable diseases has become an important public health concern in China.

What is added by this report?

The most recent estimates on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes in China during 1990-2017 reveal that the accumulated prevalences of the four major NCDs are increasing, but the age-standardized mortality rates for CVD, cancer, and CRD have been on a decline during the period of 1990-2017.

What are the implications for public health practice?

More effective intervention strategies should be developed to deal with the continuously increasing burden caused by NCDs.

P2262Intensity and cost of health care at the end of life among patients with heart failure

Background

Health care utilization increase towards the end of life. There is little known about the intensity of care, including use of in-hospital services, critical care units, and invasive procedures at the end of life in heart failure (HF).

Aims

To determine the type and intensity of health care services offered at the end of life to patients with HF, and to establish the determinants of and costs associated with death in the hospital versus at home.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years) who died between April 1, 2004 and March 31, 2017 in Ontario, Canada. We included decedents with a diagnosis of HF in the 2 years preceding their death and a hospitalization for HF in their last year of life. We obtained demographic, clinical, healthcare utilization, and healthcare cost data from population-based administrative databases, using unique encrypted identifiers to link records. We calculated direct costs from the perspective of the Ministry of Health in our publicly-funded healthcare system. We used descriptive statistics and a 2-level multivariable logistic regression model) with patients (1st level) nested in regions (2nd level) to assess for predictors of death in the hospital versus at home.

Results

We identified 396,024 adults with HF who died between April 1, 2004 and March 31, 2017. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) age at death was 81.8 (10.7) years, and 48.5% were men. During the last 6 months of life, patients commonly experienced hospitalizations (78.1%), care from >10 different physicians (62.2%); intensive care unit (ICU) admissions (26.4%); mechanical ventilation (18.1%); hemodialysis (6.2%); and cardiac catheterization (3.7%). In the last 6 months of life, patients spent a mean (SD) of 17.4 (23.0) days in the hospital; 2.5 (8.3) days in an ICU; and 1.6 (7.9) days on a ventilator. While the proportion of deaths at home increased from 32.6% in 2004–2005 to 38% in 2016–2017, a majority of patients (53.4%) died in hospital during the study period. Factors independently associated with in-hospital death included age (OR 0.53 [95% CI 0.51–0.55] for age >85 years vs <60 years), sex (OR 0.88 [95% CI 0.87–0.89] for female vs male), and socioeconomic status (OR 0.87 [95% CI 0.85–0.89] for highest vs lowest income quintile). Palliative care services in the last 6 months of life was associated with higher odds of in-hospital death (OR 1.73 [95% CI 1.70–1.76]). Death in hospital was associated with higher mean [SD] healthcare costs in the terminal 6 months of life than death out of hospital ($52,349 [55,649] vs $35,943 [31,907]).

Conclusion

In this large cohort study in Ontario, Canada, patients with HF commonly received in-hospital, intensive, and invasive care in the last 6 months of life, and a majority of patients died in hospital. Death in hospital was associated with higher costs of care in the terminal 6 months than death outside hospital.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, Canadian Institutes of Health Research

P3519Sex-based disparities in end of life care among patients with heart failure

Background

There are sex-based disparities in care and outcomes among patients with heart failure (HF), but the association between sex and health care services received at the end-of-life health is unknown.

Purpose

To assess for sex-based differences in location of death and the type and intensity of health care services received at the end of life among patients with HF.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years) who died between April 1, 2004 and March 31, 2017 in Ontario, Canada. We included decedents who had a diagnosis of HF and a hospitalization for HF in the year preceding their death. We obtained demographic, clinical, health care utilization, and healthcare system cost data from population-based administrative databases, using unique encrypted identifiers to link records. We used descriptive statistics and a 2-level multivariable logistic regression model with patients (1st level) nested in regions (2nd level) to assess whether sex was independently associated with death in hospital.

Results

We identified 396,024 adults (51.5% women) who died of HF between April 1, 2004 and March 31, 2017. Mean (SD) age at death was 81.8 (10.7) years and a majority of deaths (53.4%) occurred in the hospital. During the last 6 months of life, a significantly lower proportion of women than men experienced emergency department visits (81.7% vs 86.5%; p<0.001); hospitalizations (75.6% vs 80.8%; p<0.001); intensive care unit (ICU) admissions (22.8% vs 30.1%; p<0.001); mechanical ventilation (15.5% vs 20.8%; p<0.001); cardiac catheterization (2.8% vs 4.6%; p<0.001); coronary revascularization (1.5% vs 2.6%; p<0.001); hemodialysis (4.8% vs 7.7%; p<0.001); or care from 10 or more different physicians (57.6% vs 67.1%; p<0.001). In the last 6 months of life, women spent fewer days than men in the hospital (mean 16.4 vs 18.3; mean difference [MD] 1.9 [95% confidence interval 1.7–2.0]; p<0.001), in an ICU (mean 2.1 vs 3.0; MD 0.9 [95% CI 0.8–0.9]; p<0.001), and on a ventilator (mean 1.4 vs 1.9; MD 0.5 [95% CI 0.5–0.5]; p<0.001). These differences persisted and remained significant in the last month of life. There was no difference in the proportion of women vs men receiving palliative care services (45.1% vs 45.0%; p=0.53) in the last 6 months of life. After adjusting for age, socioeconomic status, comorbidities, place of residence, and year of death, women had lower odds of dying in a hospital than men (adjusted odds ratio 0.88 [95% CI 0.87–0.89]).

Conclusion

In this large cohort study in Ontario, Canada, women with HF received disproportionately lower in-hospital and invasive care services than men in their last 6 months of life and were more likely than men to die at home.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Canadian Institutes of Health Research

[Clinical significance and cost-benefit analysis of serum calcitonin assay in diagnosis and treatment of medullary thyroid carcinoma]

Objective: To study the clinical significance of serum calcitonin in the diagnosis and treatment of medullary thyroid carcinoma and to analyze its cost-benefit. Methods: One hundred and forty one patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma who undertook calcitonin test and frozen pathological examination were enrolled in this study from Oct 2012 to Mar 2018. Using the method of χ(2) test, the positive rate of calcitonin test and frozen pathological examination in diagnosis of medullary thyroid carcinoma(MTC) were compared. Firstly, we compared the correct checkout cost of calcitonin test and that of frozen pathological examination (total number of patients×cost of examination/the correctly detected number of patients) . Secondly, we calculated whether calcitonin test help patients save money(average cost of treatment in hospital for MTC×number of patients who were evaluated to be candidate for surgery-cost of calcitonin test×total number of patients)/total number of patients. Results: 139 patients were positive in calcitonin test among 141 patients, and the positive rate was 98.58%. 91 patients were positive in frozen pathological examination, and the positive rate was 64.54% (χ(2)=97.821, P<0.000 1) . Cost-benefit analysis showed that the correct checkout cost of calcitonin test and frozen pathological examination were 71.01 yuan and 426.10 yuan, also,1 371 938.64 yuan could be saved totally and 9 730.06 yuan could be saved per patient because of calcitonin test. Conclusion: Serum calcitonin test had a significant effect on the diagnosis and treatment of medullary thyroid carcinoma and was economical and practical.