Quality Assessments of HMO Diagnosis Databases Used to Monitor Childhood Vaccine Safety

Objective: To assess the quality of automated diagnoses extracted from medical care databases by the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) study.

Methods: Two methods are used to assess quality of VSD diagnosis data. The first method compares common automated and abstracted diagnostic categories (“outcomes”) in 1-2% simple random samples of study populations. The second method estimates positive predictive values of automated diagnosis codes used to identify potential cases of rare conditions (e.g., acute ataxia) for inclusion in nested case-control medical record abstraction studies.

Results: There was good agreement (64-68%) between automated and abstracted outcomes in the 1-2% simple random samples at 3 of the 4 VSD sites and poor agreement (44%) at 1 site. Overall at 3 sites, 56% of children with automated cerebella ataxia codes (ICD-9 = 334) and 22% with “lack of coordination” codes (ICD-9 = 781.3) met objective clinical criteria for acute ataxia.

Conclusions: The misclassification error rates for automated screening outcomes substantially reduce the power of screening analyses and limit usefulness of screening analyses to moderate to strong vaccine-outcome associations. Medical record verification of outcomes is needed for definitive assessments.

Quality assessments of HMO diagnosis databases used to monitor childhood vaccine safety

OBJECTIVE

To assess the quality of automated diagnoses extracted from medical care databases by the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) study.

METHODS

Two methods are used to assess quality of VSD diagnosis data. The first method compares common automated and abstracted diagnostic categories ("outcomes") in 1-2% simple random samples of study populations. The second method estimates positive predictive values of automated diagnosis codes used to identify potential cases of rare conditions (e.g., acute ataxia) for inclusion in nested case-control medical record abstraction studies.

RESULTS

There was good agreement (64-68%) between automated and abstracted outcomes in the 1-2% simple random samples at 3 of the 4 VSD sites and poor agreement (44%) at 1 site. Overall at 3 sites, 56% of children with automated cerebella ataxia codes (ICD-9 = 334) and 22% with "lack of coordination" codes (ICD-9 = 781.3) met objective clinical criteria for acute ataxia.

CONCLUSIONS

The misclassification error rates for automated screening outcomes substantially reduce the power of screening analyses and limit usefulness of screening analyses to moderate to strong vaccine-outcome associations. Medical record verification of outcomes is needed for definitive assessments.

Measles vaccination and inflammatory bowel disease: controversy laid to rest?

The increasing incidence of Crohn's disease has lead to speculation about changes in exposures to environmental or infectious agents. Considerable attention has focused on the role of measles infection and/or vaccination in the pathogenesis of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Current evidence regarding the association between measles vaccination and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) comprises analytic epidemiological studies, a case-series report and ecological studies. The first of these, a 1995 cohort study, found an association between measles vaccination and Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, but was widely questioned on methodological grounds. This was followed by a 1997 case-control study showing no association between measles vaccination and IBD. In 1998, public concern was rekindled by a report of 12 children with nonspecific colitis, ileal-lymphoid-nodular hyperplasia, and developmental disorders largely attributed to measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, but the nature of the report limited its scientific conclusions. Two additional studies, one case-control and one cohort, then followed and neither found an association with measles vaccination. Of the several ecological studies of measles vaccine coverage or measles schedule changes, none found an association with rates of IBD. The role of measles infection in IBD has been examined more extensively with studies of in utero measles exposure, measles infection early in life, and laboratory based investigations. An initial report of high rates of Crohn's disease among pregnancies affected by measles infection was followed by negative studies. Numerous case-control and ecological studies of children with measles infections early in life have also had discordant findings. Of three recent cohort studies, two showed no relationship between infection with early measles exposure and risk for IBD, while one found an approximate 3-fold elevation in risk. Laboratory investigations into persistent measles infection and IBD have been contentious. While some investigators have claimed to find persistent measles infection among patients with IBD, others, using highly sensitive polymerase chain reaction techniques, have not been able to replicate the findings. Recent controversy has centred on whether there is any evidence for molecular mimicry in the pathogenesis of IBD. In summary, available evidence does not support an association between measles-containing vaccines and risk of IBD, nor between measles infection and IBD. While further research is necessary into the causal factors underlying Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, continued public education efforts are needed to reassure the public about vaccine safety and to prevent declines in vaccine coverage.

Childhood vaccinations, vaccination timing, and risk of type 1 diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate suggested associations between childhood vaccinations, particularly against hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type b, and risk of developing type 1 diabetes; and to determine whether timing of vaccination influences risk.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study within 4 health maintenance organizations (HMOs) that participate in the Vaccine Safety Datalink project of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Study eligibility was restricted to children who met the following criteria: 1) born during 1988 through 1997; 2) HMO member since birth; 3) continuously enrolled for first 6 months of life; and 4) at least 12 months of HMO membership before diabetes incidence date (or index date for controls) unless incidence date was before 12 months of age. All 4 HMOs maintain registries of their members who have diabetes, and we used the registries to identify potential cases of diabetes. We conducted chart reviews to verify that potential cases met the World Health Organization epidemiologic case definition for type 1 diabetes mellitus (ie, a physician's diagnosis of diabetes plus treatment with daily insulin injections). We defined the incidence date of diabetes as the first date that the child received a diagnosis of diabetes. We attempted to match 3 controls to each case. Controls had the same eligibility criteria as cases and were matched to individual cases on HMO, sex, date of birth (within 7 days), and length of health plan enrollment (up to the incidence or index date). The index date for controls was defined as the incidence date of the case to which the control was matched. Chart abstraction was performed by trained chart abstractors using standardized forms. In addition to complete vaccination histories, the chart abstraction forms for both cases and controls included information on sociodemographic characteristics, selected medical conditions, history of breastfeeding, and family medical history. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of diabetes associated with vaccination, with vaccine exposure defined as before the diabetes incidence date (or index date for controls).

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty-two confirmed cases of diabetes and 768 matched controls met the study eligibility criteria. The OR (95% confidence interval) for the association with type 1 diabetes was 0.28 (0.07-1.06) for whole cell pertussis vaccine (predominantly in combination as diphtheria, tetanus toxoids and pertussis vaccine), 1.36 (0.70-2.63) for measles-mumps-rubella, 1.14 (0.51-2.57) for Haemophilus influenzae type b, 0.81 (0.52-1.27) for hepatitis B vaccine, 1.16 (0.72-1.89) for varicella vaccine, and 0.92 (0.53-1.57) for acellular pertussis-containing vaccines. Compared with children who had not received hepatitis B vaccine, the OR of diabetes was 0.51 (0.23-1.15) for children vaccinated at birth and 0.86 (0.54-1.35) for those first vaccinated against hepatitis B at 2 months of age or later. Race and ethnicity and family history of diabetes were independently associated with risk of type 1 diabetes, but adjustment for these factors did not materially alter the ORs for any of the vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large, population-based, case-control study, we did not find an increased risk of type 1 diabetes associated with any of the routinely recommended childhood vaccines. Our study adds to previous research by providing data on newer vaccines, including hepatitis B, acellular pertussis, and varicella vaccines. For the older vaccines, our results are generally in agreement with previous studies in not finding any increased risks. Ours is the first epidemiologic study to evaluate the possibility that timing of vaccination is related to risk of clinical diabetes in children. Our results on hepatitis B vaccine do not support the hypothesis; risk of type 1 diabetes was not different between infants vaccinated at birth and those who received their first vaccination later in life. The results of our study and the preponderance of epidemiologic evidence do not support an association between any of the recommended childhood vaccines and an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Suggestions that diabetes risk in humans may be altered by changes in the timing of vaccinations also are unfounded.

Measles-mumps-rubella and other measles-containing vaccines do not increase the risk for inflammatory bowel disease: a case-control study from the Vaccine Safety Datalink project

CONTEXT

A link between measles virus-containing vaccines and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has been suggested by recent studies.

OBJECTIVE

To address whether receipt or timing of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) increases risk for IBD.

DESIGN

A case-control study.

SETTING

Four large health maintenance organizations (HMOs) that are part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vaccine Safety Datalink project.

PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS

A total of 155 persons with codes from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision specific for IBD, born between 1958 and 1989 and enrolled from birth to the onset of disease, were identified. Up to 5 controls were matched by sex, HMO, and birth year.

INTERVENTION

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Risk for IBD, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis.

RESULTS

Past vaccination was not associated with an increased risk for Crohn's disease (odds ratio [OR] for measles-mumps-rubella vaccine [MMR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08-2.0), ulcerative colitis (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.18-3.56), or IBD (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.21-1.68). Risk for IBD was not increased among children vaccinated who were younger than 12 months (OR for MMR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.15-2.45) or aged 12 to 18 months (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.28-2.59) relative to unvaccinated children. Children vaccinated with MMR who were older than 18 months were at significantly decreased risk for IBD (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.68). Neither past vaccination nor age at vaccination with other MCV was associated with increased risk for Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, or IBD. Risk for Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, or IBD was not elevated in the time immediately following vaccination with either vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination with MMR or other MCV, or the timing of vaccination early in life, did not increase the risk for IBD.

Does influenza vaccination prevent asthma exacerbations in children?

OBJECTIVE

Influenza can exacerbate asthma, particularly in children. The effectiveness of influenza vaccine in preventing influenza-related asthma exacerbations, however, is not known. We evaluated influenza vaccine effectiveness in protecting children against influenza-related asthma exacerbations.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study with medical and vaccination records in 4 large health maintenance organizations in the United States during the 1993-1994, 1994-1995, and 1995-1996 influenza seasons. We studied children with asthma who were 1 through 6 years of age and who were identified by search of computerized databases of medical encounters and pharmacy dispensings. Main outcome measures were exacerbations of asthma evaluated in the emergency department or hospital.

RESULTS

Unadjusted rates of asthma exacerbations were higher after influenza vaccination than before vaccination. After adjustment was done for asthma severity by means of a self-control method, however, the incidence rate ratios of asthma exacerbations after vaccination were 0.78 (95% CI: 0.55 to 1.10), 0.59 (0.43 to 0.81), and 0.65 (0.52 to 0.80) compared with the period before vaccination during the 3 influenza seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

After controlling for asthma severity, we found that influenza vaccination protects against acute asthma exacerbations in children.

Does influenza vaccination exacerbate asthma? Analysis of a large cohort of children with asthma. Vaccine Safety Datalink Team

CONTEXT

Although influenza vaccination is recommended for children with asthma, only a minority are vaccinated. One reason for low influenza vaccine coverage among children with asthma may be concern that influenza vaccination may induce an exacerbation of asthma.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the safety of influenza vaccination in children with asthma, we studied the incidence of hospitalizations and emergency department visits for asthma following influenza vaccination.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study-analysis of population-based computerized medical and vaccination records.

SETTING

: Four large health maintenance organizations on the West Coast of the United States.

SUBJECTS

Children with asthma 1 through 6 years of age, identified by search of computerized databases of medical encounters and pharmacy prescriptions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Exacerbations of asthma.

RESULTS

In unadjusted analyses vaccination was associated with high rates of asthma exacerbations. However, after adjusting for asthma severity using a self-control method, the incidence rate ratios of asthma exacerbations after vaccination were 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.95), 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.47-1.17), and 0.98 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-1.27) during the 3 influenza seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

After controlling for asthma severity, we found that influenza vaccination does not result in acute asthma exacerbations in children. Concern about possible exacerbation of asthma is not a valid reason to not vaccinate children with asthma against influenza.

Influenza vaccination in children with asthma in health maintenance organizations. Vaccine Safety Datalink Team

We assessed vaccination coverage and predictors of influenza vaccination in asthmatic children in four large Health Maintenance Organizations. We studied 68,839 children with asthma at four Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) in the 1995-1996 influenza season and 34,032 children at two HMOs in the 1996-1997 influenza season. In both seasons only 9-10% were vaccinated against influenza. Children who were hospitalized, had an emergency department visit for asthma or a prescription for a beta-agonist prior to the influenza season, were more likely to be vaccinated. Overall, 61% of the unvaccinated asthmatic children had made an outpatient clinic visit during months when influenza vaccination would have been appropriate. Vaccination coverage could be increased by taking advantage of all opportunities to vaccinate children with asthma whenever they make clinic visits in the fall and early winter.

Evaluation of a population roster as a source of population controls: the Massachusetts Resident Lists

Published population rosters can serve as a convenient source of population controls. The authors evaluated one such roster, the Massachusetts Resident Lists, by estimating the completeness of the Lists and by describing the differences between persons included and not included on the Lists. The subjects were cases from three case-control studies of ovarian cancer conducted in eastern Massachusetts between 1978 and 1996. For each of the three case series, more than 90% of the cases were located on the Resident Lists. Age was one of the primary differences to emerge between cases included and not included; in the most recent case series, cases younger than age 40 years were less likely than older cases to be included on the Lists.

Vitamins A, C and E and the risk of breast cancer: results from a case-control study in Greece

Although several dietary compounds are hypothesized to have anticarcinogenic properties, the role of specific micronutrients in the development of breast cancer remains unclear. To address this issue, we assessed intake of retinol, beta-carotene, vitamin C and vitamin E in relation to breast cancer risk in a case-control study in Greece. Eight hundred and twenty women with histologically confirmed breast cancer were compared with 1548 control women. Dietary data were collected through a 115-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Data were modelled by logistic regression, with adjustment for total energy intake and established breast cancer risk factors, as well as mutual adjustment among the micronutrients. Among post-menopausal women, there was no association between any of the micronutrients evaluated and risk of breast cancer. Among premenopausal women, beta-carotene, vitamin C and vitamin E were each inversely associated with breast cancer risk, but after mutual adjustment among the three nutrients only beta-carotene remained significant; the odds ratio (OR) for a one-quintile increase in beta-carotene intake was 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.97). The inverse association observed with beta-carotene intake, however, is slightly weaker than the association previously observed with vegetable intake in these data, raising the possibility that the observed beta-carotene effect is accounted for by another component of vegetables.

Insulin-like growth factor-I in relation to premenopausal ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast

We evaluated the association of plasma insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and IGF binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) with risk of breast cancer in a study of 94 cases of premenopausal ductal carcinoma in situ and 76 controls. Compared with women in the lowest tertile of IGF-I, women in the upper two tertiles of IGF-I had an elevated risk for ductal carcinoma in situ. Conversely, compared with women in the lowest tertile of IGFBP-3, women in the upper two tertiles of IGFBP-3 had a decreased risk for ductal carcinoma in situ. After grouping women on the basis of both IGF-I and IGFBP-3, women in the highest two tertiles of IGF-I and the lowest tertile of IGFBP-3 were at notably higher risk than women in the lowest tertile of IGF-I and the highest two tertiles of IGFBP-3 (odds ratio = 3.7; 95% confidence interval = 1.1-12.2). We conclude that the combination of high IGF-I and low IGFBP-3 may increase the risk of premenopausal ductal carcinoma in situ.

Relation of luteinizing hormone levels to body mass index in premenopausal women

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and basal LH and the LH-FSH ratio in normally menstruating women.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis.

SETTING

A teaching hospital clinic.

PATIENT(S)

Premenopausal women without cancer, not currently using oral contraceptives, selected from a familial ovarian cancer clinic or the general population.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Early follicular phase plasma LH and FSH.

RESULT(S)

Luteinizing hormone increased slightly and nonsignificantly (P = 0.44) from the first to the second quintile of BMI and decreased over all subsequent quintiles. Women in the highest quintile of BMI (> 27.1) had significantly lower LH levels than women in the lowest quintile of BMI (< or = 20.4; P = 0.003). Compared with women in the second quintile of BMI who had the highest LH levels, women in the highest quintile of BMI had LH levels that were 40% lower. The relationship between BMI and the LH-FSH ratio was similar, though not as strong.

CONCLUSION(S)

Over most of the range of BMIs observed in this study, BMI was inversely associated with LH. These results suggest that the upper limits of normal for LH may need to be shifted downward for heavier women.

Over-the-counter analgesics and risk of ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND

Evidence that aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs reduce risk for colorectal cancer has prompted interest in their ability to prevent other cancers. We aimed to find out what effect over-the-counter analgesics have on risk of ovarian cancer.

METHODS

In a case-control study we compared use of over-the-counter analgesics by 563 women from eastern Massachusetts and New Hampshire, USA, who had epithelial ovarian cancer with 523 women from the general population. We calculated exposure odds ratios to estimate the effect of over-the-counter analgesics on ovarian cancer risk. Use of over-the-counter analgesics was assessed through interviews and defined as use at least once a week continuously for at least 6 months.

FINDINGS

The odds ratio for risk of ovarian cancer for aspirin use was 0.75 (95% CI 0.52-1.10), that for ibuprofen was 1.03 (0.64-1.64), and that for paracetamol was 0.52 (0.31-0.86), after adjusting for age, study centre, education, religion, parity, oral contraceptive use, and menstrual, arthritic, or headache pain. Relative to no use, the lower risk of ovarian cancer associated with paracetamol was more apparent for use on a daily basis, 0.39 (0.21-0.74), for more than 10 years of use, 0.40 (0.19-0.88), or for more than 20 tablet years defined as (tablets per day x years of use), 0.45 (0.20-0.99).

INTERPRETATION

In our data, there was a statistically significant inverse association between paracetamol use and ovarian cancer risk. There was a modest but non-significant inverse association with aspirin use and ovarian cancer and no association with ibuprofen use. Experimental studies in rodents demonstrating uterine and ovarian atrophy at high doses of paracetamol and decreased ovarian-cyst formation at lower doses suggest a biological basis for our observations.