Prediction of lifetime cardiovascular risk and individual lifetime treatment benefit in four European risk regions: geographic recalibration of the LIFE-CVD model

Background

The life expectancy free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals without previous CVD can be estimated with the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model, as recommended by the 2021 ESC CVD prevention guidelines. Our aim was to systematically recalibrate the LIFE-CVD model to four European risk regions using contemporary and representative registry data.

Methods and results

The LIFE-CVD model was systematically recalibrated to four distinct risk regions within Europe, using representative aggregate data on age- and sex-specific expected CVD and non-CVD mortality incidences and risk factor distributions. For external validation, 1,451,077 individuals without previous CVD were included from seven European cohorts, with 53,721 CVD events and 62,902 non-CVD deaths during follow up. After applying the recalibrated risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices (figure 1) ranged from 0.670 (95% CI 0.650–0.690) to 0.787 (95% CI 0.785–0.789). Predicted risks matched the observed risks in the CPRD data. With the recalibrated LIFE-CVD model, the estimated gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy differed per region, for example a 50-year-old smoking women with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg was estimated to gain 0.4 years of CVD-free life from 10 mm Hg SBP reduction in the low risk region, whereas this would be 1.5 years in the very high risk region (figure 2).

Interpretation

By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making in cardiovascular prevention options as recommended by the 2021 European Prevention Guidelines.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Fluid resuscitation in critically ill patients-timing and dose matters

Fluid management is a complex subject in healthcare, particularly when pertaining to critically ill patients. Following a literature search on international recommendations regarding fluid administration for shocked patients, an audit was undertaken at Rotorua Public Hospital, New Zealand, to assess how the local fluid resuscitation strategy could be improved. The first part of the audit looked at the fluid resuscitation approach used to treat shocked patients admitted to the ICU of Rotorua Hospital in 2014 and changes required to achieve best practice recommendations. The second part tested the success and impact of the subsequently implemented, more measured approach to fluid resuscitation in 2016. Data was extracted from patient files, fluid charts and electronic records to assess fluid administration and de-escalation measures. The collated information was analysed and compared to recommendations found in the literature. The complete audit cycle revealed not only a significant improvement in adherence to best practice guidelines, but also an association with better patient outcomes.

An atypical anatomical variation of palmar vascular pattern

A complex variation in the pattern of blood supply to the palm of the hand was encountered during a routine dissection of a female adult cadaver. Findings were: (a) there was no communication between the superficial palmar branches of the radial and ulnar arteries (incomplete superficial palmar arch); (b) the superficial palmar branch of the radial artery coursed superficially to the thenar muscles supplying two common palmar digital arteries for adjacent sides of the thumb and index finger, thereby replacing the conventional arteria radialis indices; (c) the branch supplying the lateral side of the thumb was seen arising from the deep branch of the radial artery; (d) the superficial palmar branch of the ulnar artery supplied a branch to the medial side of the little finger, and two common palmar digital arteries for the adjacent sides of the little and ring fingers and ring and middle fingers, respectively. Familiarity with the variations in the vascular patterns resulting from a number of developmental errors remains the crucial issue for personnel engaged in reconstructive hand surgery, where these varied patterns act as pivotal points around which successful accomplishment of various advanced surgical procedures revolve.

Ventricular remodelling and revascularization in severe left ventricular dysfunction

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the role of surgical revascularization in the presence of severe, global impairment of left ventricular function without discrete aneurysm formation or mitral regurgitation. The high mortality and morbidity associated with this group, together with the limited benefits tend to prompt referral for cardiac transplantation.

METHODS

Fifty-three patients initially referred for transplantation, in addition to coronary revascularization, underwent mitral annuloplasty (group A = 23), free wall remodelling by endoaneurysmorrhaphy (group B = 17) or mitral annuloplasty and free wall reconstruction (group C = 13). The mean ages were 59, 56 and 57 years for groups A, B and C, respectively. Detailed assessment of pre- and post-operative physical and psychological status were carried out.

RESULTS

Follow-up was for a mean period of 22-26 months. All patients reported substantial improvement in quality of life, both physical and psychological parameters and in NYHA functional class status. Objective evidence of improvement in ejection fraction was seen in all three groups but especially in group A. There were five early deaths, four were due to inadequate revascularization due to the poor quality of target vessels. There were three late deaths and one patient that required transplantation.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction can be candidates for surgical revascularization and optimization of ventricular geometry with acceptable mortality. The importance of achieving complete revascularization is emphasized in this series.

Impaired vasoconstriction of peripheral cutaneous blood flow in Type 1 diabetic patients following food ingestion

Abnormalities in cutaneous blood flow (CBF) in otherwise healthy subjects with Type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM) have been demonstrated in response to local insults to the skin. To investigate whether defects also occurred in response to a regular daily activity, CBF was measured with laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF), before and 20 min after starting a mixed meal in 13 male Type 1 DM subjects with no clinical evidence of neuropathy, nephropathy or macroangiopathy and compared to 7 non-diabetic controls. Diabetic subjects and controls were of similar age and body mass index (mean +/- SD, 33.7 +/- 7.4 vs 37.1 +/- 9.2 years and 25.2 +/- 2.9 vs 24.5 +/- 2.9 kg m(-2), respectively). In subjects with DM, HbA1c was 8.3 +/- 0.6% (normal range 4-5.5%) and duration of diabetes was 18 (8-38) years, median (range). Following a mixed meal the CBF fell in the controls by 36% (24 to 56), median (range), compared to 3% (-5 to 18) in Type 1 DM subjects, P < 0.0005. These results show there is a normal physiological fall in CBF following food ingestion which is attenuated in Type 1 DM. These abnormalities of vasoconstriction in the peripheral microcirculation are present after 8 years of diabetes and precede the development of clinically apparent neuropathy or vascular disease.