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Stefanescu ER, Bursik M, Cordoba G, Dalbey K, Jones MD, Patra AK, Pieri DC, Pitman EB, Sheridan MF. Digital elevation model uncertainty and hazard analysis using a geophysical flow model. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2012. [DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2011.0711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper describes a new methodology to quantify the variation in the output of a computational fluid dynamics model for block and ash flows, when the digital elevation model (DEM) of the terrain and other inputs are given as a range of possible values with a prescribed uncertainty. Integrating these variations in the possible flows as a function of input uncertainties provides well-defined hazard probabilities at specific locations, i.e. a hazard map. Earlier work provided a methodology for assessing hazards based on variations in flow initiation and friction parameters. This paper extends this approach to include the effect of terrain error and uncertainty. The results are based on potential flows at Mammoth Mountain, CA, and Galeras Volcano, Colombia. The analysis establishes the soundness of the approach and the effect of including the uncertainty in DEMs in the construction of probabilistic hazard maps.
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Affiliation(s)
- E. R. Stefanescu
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
| | - M. Bursik
- Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
| | - G. Cordoba
- Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Nariño, Narino, Colombia
| | - K. Dalbey
- Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - M. D. Jones
- Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
| | - A. K. Patra
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
| | - D. C. Pieri
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA
| | - E. B. Pitman
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
| | - M. F. Sheridan
- Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
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