Digital elevation model uncertainty and hazard analysis using a geophysical flow model

This paper describes a new methodology to quantify the variation in the output of a computational fluid dynamics model for block and ash flows, when the digital elevation model (DEM) of the terrain and other inputs are given as a range of possible values with a prescribed uncertainty. Integrating these variations in the possible flows as a function of input uncertainties provides well-defined hazard probabilities at specific locations, i.e. a hazard map. Earlier work provided a methodology for assessing hazards based on variations in flow initiation and friction parameters. This paper extends this approach to include the effect of terrain error and uncertainty. The results are based on potential flows at Mammoth Mountain, CA, and Galeras Volcano, Colombia. The analysis establishes the soundness of the approach and the effect of including the uncertainty in DEMs in the construction of probabilistic hazard maps.

Limit-cycle oscillations and tubuloglomerular feedback regulation of distal sodium delivery

A mathematical model was used to evaluate the potential effects of limit-cycle oscillations (LCO) on tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF) regulation of fluid and sodium delivery to the distal tubule. In accordance with linear systems theory, simulations of steady-state responses to infinitesimal perturbations in single-nephron glomerular filtration rate (SNGFR) show that TGF regulatory ability (assessed as TGF compensation) increases with TGF gain magnitude gamma when gamma is less than the critical value gamma(c), the value at which LCO emerge in tubular fluid flow and NaCl concentration at the macula densa. When gamma > gamma(c) and LCO are present, TGF compensation is reduced for both infinitesimal and finite perturbations in SNGFR, relative to the compensation that could be achieved in the absence of LCO. Maximal TGF compensation occurs when gamma approximately gamma(c). Even in the absence of perturbations, LCO increase time-averaged sodium delivery to the distal tubule, while fluid delivery is little changed. These effects of LCO are consequences of nonlinear elements in the TGF system. Because increased distal sodium delivery may increase the rate of sodium excretion, these simulations suggest that LCO enhance sodium excretion.

Mechanisms by which thrombolytic therapy results in nonuniform lysis and residual thrombus after reperfusion

A transport-reaction model describing penetration of plasmin by diffusion and permeation into a dissolving fibrin gel was solved numerically to explore mechanisms that lead to the formation and growth of dissolution fingers through blood clots during thrombolytic therapy. Under conditions of fluid permeation driven by arterial pressures, small random spatial variations in the initial fibrin density within clots (+/-4 to 25% peak variations) were predicted by the simulation to result in dramatic dissolution fingers that grew in time. With in vitro experiments, video microscopy revealed that the shape of the proximal face of a fibrin gel, when deformed by pressure-driven permeation, led to lytic breakthrough in the center of the clot, consistent with model predictions of increased velocities in this region leading to cannulation. Computer simulation of lysis of fibrin retracted by platelets (where more permeable regions are expected in the middle of the clot due to retraction) predicted cannulation of the clot during thrombolysis. This residual, annular thrombus was predicted to lyse more slowly, because radial pressure gradients to drive inner clot permeation were quite small. In conjunction with kinetic models of systemic pharmacodynamics and plasminogen activation biochemistry, a two-dimensional transport-reaction model can facilitate the prediction of the time and causes of clot cannulation, poor reperfusion, and embolism during thrombolysis.

Spectral properties of the tubuloglomerular feedback system

A simple mathematical model was used to investigate the spectral properties of the tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF) system. A perturbation, consisting of small-amplitude broad-band forcing, was applied to simulated thick ascending limb (TAL) flow, and the resulting spectral response of the TGF pathway was assessed by computing a power spectrum from resulting TGF-regulated TAL flow. Power spectra were computed for both open- and closed-feedback-loop cases. Open-feedback-loop power spectra are consistent with a mathematical analysis that predicts a nodal pattern in TAL frequency response, with nodes corresponding to frequencies where oscillatory flow has a TAL transit time that equals the steady-state fluid transit time. Closed-feedback-loop spectra are dominated by the open-loop spectral response, provided that gamma, the magnitude of feedback gain, is less than the critical value gamma c required for emergence of a sustained TGF-mediated oscillation. For gamma exceeding gamma c, closed-loop spectra have peaks corresponding to the fundamental frequency of the TGF-mediated oscillation and its harmonics. The harmonics, expressed in a nonsinusoidal waveform for tubular flow, are introduced by nonlinear elements of the TGF pathway, notably TAL transit time and the TGF response curve. The effect of transit time on the flow waveform leads to crests that are broader than troughs and to an asymmetry in the magnitudes of increasing and decreasing slopes. For feedback gain magnitude that is sufficiently large, the TGF response curve tends to give a square waveshape to the waveform. Published waveforms and power spectra of in vivo TGF oscillations have features consistent with the predictions of this analysis.

Nonlinear filter properties of the thick ascending limb

A mathematical model was used to investigate the filter properties of the thick ascending limb (TAL), that is, the response of TAL luminal NaCl concentration to oscillations in tubular fluid flow. For the special case of no transtubular NaCl backleak and for spatially homogeneous transport parameters, the model predicts that NaCl concentration in intratubular fluid at each location along the TAL depends only on the fluid transit time up the TAL to that location. This exact mathematical result has four important consequences: 1) when a sinusoidal component is added to steady-state TAL flow, the NaCl concentration at the macula densa (MD) undergoes oscillations that are bounded by a range interval envelope with magnitude that decreases as a function of oscillatory frequency; 2) the frequency response within the range envelope exhibits nodes at those frequencies where the oscillatory flow has a transit time to the MD that equals the steady-state fluid transit time (this nodal structure arises from the establishment of standing waves in luminal concentration, relative to the steady-state concentration profile, along the length of the TAL); 3) for any dynamically changing but positive TAL flow rate, the luminal TAL NaCl concentration profile along the TAL decreases monotonically as a function of TAL length; and 4) sinusoidal oscillations in TAL flow, except at nodal frequencies, result in nonsinusoidal oscillations in NaCl concentration at the MD. Numerical calculations that include NaCl backleak exhibit solutions with these same four properties. For parameters in the physiological range, the first few nodes in the frequency response curve are separated by antinodes of significant amplitude, and the nodes arise at frequencies well below the frequency of respiration in rat. Therefore, the nodal structure and nonsinusoidal oscillations should be detectable in experiments, and they may influence the dynamic behavior of the tubuloglomerular feedback system.

Instantaneous and steady-state gains in the tubuloglomerular feedback system

The load of water and solute entering each nephron of the mammalian kidney is regulated by the tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF) mechanism, a negative feedback loop. Experiments in rats have shown that key variables of this feedback system may exhibit TGF-mediated oscillations. Mathematical modeling studies have shown that the open-feedback-loop gain is a crucial parameter for determining whether oscillations will emerge. However, two different formulations of this gain have been used. The first is the steady-state gain, a readily measurable quantity corresponding to the steady-state reduction in single-nephron glomerular filtration rate (SNGFR) subsequent to a sustained increased in ascending limb flow rate. The second is an instantaneous gain, a variable arising from theoretical considerations corresponding to the maximum reduction in SNGFR resulting from an instantaneous shift of the ascending limb flow column, with the assumption that the SNGFR response is also instantaneous. Here we show by an analytic argument how the steady-state and instantaneous open-feedback-loop gains for the ascending limb are related. In the case of no solute backleak into the ascending limb, the two formulations of gain are equivalent; however, in the presence of solute backleak, the instantaneous gain is larger in magnitude than the steady-state gain. With typical physiological parameters for the rat, calculations with a model previously devised by us show that the gains differ by 5-10%. Hence, experimental measurements of the steady-state gain may provide useful lower-bound estimates of the instantaneous gain of the feedback system in the normal rat. However, the gains may diverge significantly in pathophysiological states where ascending limb transport is compromised by abnormally high NaCl permeability.

A dynamic numerical method for models of renal tubules

We show that an explicit method for solving hyperbolic partial differential equations can be applied to a model of a renal tubule to obtain both dynamic and steady-state solutions. Appropriate implementation of this method eliminates numerical instability arising from reversal of intratubular flow direction. To obtain second-order convergence in space and time, we employ the recently developed ENO (Essentially Non-Oscillatory) methodology. We present examples of computed flows and concentration profiles in representative model contexts. Finally, we indicate briefly how model tubules may be coupled to construct large-scale simulations of the renal counterflow system.

Numerical simulation of propagating concentration profiles in renal tubules

Method-dependent mechanisms that may affect dynamic numerical solutions of a hyperbolic partial differential equation that models concentration profiles in renal tubules are described. Some numerical methods that have been applied to the equation are summarized, and ways by which the methods may misrepresent true solutions are analysed. Comparison of these methods demonstrates the need for thoughtful application of computational mathematics when simulating complicated time-dependent phenomena.

Bifurcation analysis of TGF-mediated oscillations in SNGFR

Recent micropuncture studies in rats have demonstrated the existence of oscillatory states in nephron filtration mediated by tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF). We develop a minimal mathematical model of the TGF system, consisting of a first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation describing thick ascending limb (TAL) NaCl reabsorption and an empirical feedback relation. An analytic bifurcation analysis of this model provides fundamental insight into how oscillatory states depend on the physiological parameters of the model. In the special case of no solute backleak in the TAL, the emergence of oscillations explicitly depends on two nondimensional parameters. The first corresponds to the delay time of the TGF response across the juxtaglomerular apparatus, and the second corresponds to the product of the slope of the TGF response curve at the steady-state operating point and the space derivative of the steady-state NaCl concentration profile in the TAL at the macula densa. Numerical calculations for the case without TAL backleak are consistent with this result. Numerical simulation of the more general case with TAL backleak shows that the bifurcation analysis still provides useful predictions concerning nephron dynamics. With typical parameter values, the analysis predicts that the TGF system will be in oscillatory state. However, the system is near enough to the boundary of the nonoscillatory region so that small changes in parameter values could result in nonoscillatory behavior.