Quantifying and Predicting Ongoing Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Transmission Dynamics in Switzerland Using a Distance-Based Clustering Approach

BACKGROUND

Despite effective prevention approaches, ongoing human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) transmission remains a public health concern indicating a need for identifying its drivers.

METHODS

We combined a network-based clustering method using evolutionary distances between viral sequences with statistical learning approaches to investigate the dynamics of HIV transmission in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and to predict the drivers of ongoing transmission.

RESULTS

We found that only a minority of clusters and patients acquired links to new infections between 2007 and 2020. While the growth of clusters and the probability of individual patients acquiring new links in the transmission network was associated with epidemiological, behavioral, and virological predictors, the strength of these associations decreased substantially when adjusting for network characteristics. Thus, these network characteristics can capture major heterogeneities beyond classical epidemiological parameters. When modeling the probability of a newly diagnosed patient being linked with future infections, we found that the best predictive performance (median area under the curve receiver operating characteristic AUCROC = 0.77) was achieved by models including characteristics of the network as predictors and that models excluding them performed substantially worse (median AUCROC = 0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the utility of molecular epidemiology-based network approaches for analyzing and predicting ongoing HIV transmission dynamics. This approach may serve for real-time prospective assessment of HIV transmission.

Triggers of Change in Sexual Behavior Among People With HIV: The Swiss U U Statement and COVID-19 Compared

We assessed changes in sexual behavior among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) over 20 years. Condom use with stable partners steadily declined from over 90 to 29 since the Swiss U U statement, with similar trajectories between men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals. Occasional partnership remained higher among MSM compared to heterosexuals even during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing.

Risk Factors and Incidence of Sexually Transmitted Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are common among people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH), but there are limited data about risk factors and incidence of STIs in large, representative cohort studies.

Methods

We assessed incidence and risk factors of STIs reported by treating physicians within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Sexually transmitted infections and demographic, clinical, and behavioral characteristics were prospectively collected at 6-month follow-up visits between October 2017 and November 2019. We used multilevel Poisson regression to assess incidence rate ratios of different STIs.

Results

Among 10 140 study participants, a total of 1634 STIs in 1029 SHCS participants were reported over 17 766 person-years of follow up (PYFUP). The overall incidence of any reported STI was 91.9 per 1000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI], 85.8 -98.5). Among the 1634 STI episodes, there were 573 (35.1%) incident cases of syphilis, 497 gonorrhea (30.4%), and 418 chlamydia (25.6%). Men who have sex with men (MSM) younger than 50 years represented 21% of the study population, but accounted for 61% of reported STIs. Male sex (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 2.03; 95% CI, 1.36-3.02), MSM (aIRR, 3.62; 95% CI, 2.88-4.55), age group 18-34 years (aIRR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.51-2.10), history of sexual relationships with occasional partners (aIRR, 6.87; 95% CI, 5.40-8.73), and reporting injecting drug use (aIRR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.91-3.23) were associated with a higher risk of incident STIs.

Conclusions

Sexually transmitted infections were frequent among PWH and varied considerably between age and risk groups. Screening programs and recommendations for STI testing need to be adapted according to risk factors and demographic characteristics.

Using longitudinally sampled viral nucleotide sequences to characterize the drivers of HIV-1 transmission

OBJECTIVES

Understanding the drivers of HIV-1 transmission is of importance for curbing the ongoing epidemic. Phylogenetic methods based on single viral sequences allow us to assess whether two individuals are part of the same viral outbreak, but cannot on their own assess who potentially transmitted the virus. We developed and assessed a molecular epidemiology method with the main aim to screen cohort studies for and to characterize individuals who are 'potential HIV-1 transmitters', in order to understand the drivers of HIV-1 transmission.

METHODS

We developed and validated a molecular epidemiology approach using longitudinally sampled viral Sanger sequences to characterize potential HIV-1 transmitters in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

RESULTS

Our method was able to identify 279 potential HIV-1 transmitters and allowed us to determine the main epidemiological and virological drivers of transmission. We found that the directionality of transmission was consistent with infection times for 72.9% of 85 potential HIV-1 transmissions with accurate infection date estimates. Being a potential HIV-1 transmitter was associated with risk factors including viral load [adjusted odds ratio_{multivariable} (95% confidence interval): 1.86 (1.49-2.32)], syphilis coinfection [1.52 (1.06-2.19)], and recreational drug use [1.45 (1.06-1.98)]. By contrast for the potential HIV-1 recipients, this association was weaker or even absent [1.18 (0.82-1.72), 0.89 (0.52-1.55) and 1.53 (0.98-2.39), respectively], indicating that inferred directionality of transmission is useful at the population level.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that longitudinally sampled Sanger sequences do not provide sufficient information to identify transmitters with high certainty at the individual level, but that they allow the drivers of transmission at the population level to be characterized.

Changes in Renal Function After Switching From TDF to TAF in HIV-Infected Individuals: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Replacing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) with tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) improves renal tubular markers in HIV-infected individuals but the impact on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) remains unclear.

Methods

In all participants from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who switched from TDF to TAF-containing antiretroviral regimen or continued TDF, we estimated changes in eGFR and urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) after 18 months using mixed-effect models.

Results

Of 3520 participants (26.6% women, median age 50 years), 2404 (68.5%) switched to TAF. Overall, 1664 (47.3%) had an eGFR <90 mL/min and 1087 (30.9%) an UPCR ≥15 mg/mmol. In patients with baseline eGFR ≥90 mL/min, eGFR decreased with the use of TDF and TAF (−1.7 mL/min). Switching to TAF was associated with increases in eGFR of 1.5 mL/min (95% confidence interval [CI], .5–2.5) if the baseline eGFR was 60–89 mL/min, and 4.1 mL/min (95% CI, 1.6–6.6) if <60 mL/min. In contrast, eGFR decreased by 5.8 mL/min (95% CI, 2.3–9.3) with continued use of TDF in individuals with baseline eGFR <60 mL/min. UPCR decreased after replacing TDF by TAF, independent of baseline eGFR.

Conclusions

Switching from TDF to TAF improves eGFR and proteinuria in patients with renal dysfunction.

Stable HIV-1 reservoirs on dolutegravir maintenance monotherapy: the MONODO study

OBJECTIVES

Dolutegravir (DTG) is a highly effective integrase inhibitor with a strong genetic resistance barrier and a potential role in simplified HIV maintenance treatment. We assessed the feasibility of DTG maintenance monotherapy and measured HIV reservoirs on DTG monotherapy.

METHODS

An interventional, open-label, single-arm study including eight virologically suppressed HIV-1-infected patients switched to DTG 50 mg once daily for 24 weeks was performed. HIV-1 RNA levels in plasma and cerebrospinal and seminal fluids were measured at baseline and week 24, as well as HIV-1 DNA in peripheral cells and DTG concentrations in these compartments.

RESULTS

HIV-1 RNA remained undetectable in all samples of blood, cerebrospinal fluid and sperm throughout the 24 weeks, except for one cerebrospinal fluid sample with a value of 28 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL at week 24. One patient discontinued the study because of a neurological side effect. There was no change in the mean HIV-1 DNA level between baseline and week 24. Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid DTG concentrations reached therapeutic levels in all patients in these two compartments.

CONCLUSIONS

In this small sample of carefully selected patients, HIV-1 reservoirs were well controlled on DTG monotherapy over a period of 24 weeks. Viral suppression was also maintained throughout follow-up.

Mining for pairs: shared clinic visit dates identify steady HIV-positive partnerships

OBJECTIVES

Here we examined the hypothesis that some stable HIV-infected partnerships can be found in cohort studies, as the patients frequently attend the clinic visits together.

METHODS

Using mathematical approximations and shuffling to derive the probabilities of sharing a given number of visits by chance, we identified and validated couples that may represent either transmission pairs or serosorting couples in a stable relationship.

RESULTS

We analysed 434 432 visits for 16 139 Swiss HIV Cohort Study patients from 1990 to 2014. For 89 pairs, the number of shared visits exceeded the number expected. Of these, 33 transmission pairs were confirmed on the basis of three criteria: an extensive phylogenetic tree, a self-reported steady HIV-positive partnership, and risk group affiliation. Notably, 12 of the validated transmission pairs (36%; 12 of 33) were of a mixed ethnicity with a large median age gap [17.5 years; interquartile range (IQR) 11.8-22 years] and these patients harboured HIV-1 of predominantly non-B subtypes, suggesting imported infections.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of the surge in research interest in HIV transmission pairs, this simple method widens the horizons of research on within-pair quasi-species exchange, transmitted drug resistance and viral recombination at the biological level and targeted prevention at the public health level.

Protease inhibitors to treat hepatitis C in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: high efficacy but low treatment uptake

OBJECTIVES

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) have become the standard of care for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We aimed to assess treatment uptake and efficacy in routine clinical settings among HIV/HCV coinfected patients after the introduction of the first generation DAAs.

METHODS

Data on all Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) participants starting HCV protease inhibitor (PI) treatment between September 2011 and August 2013 were collected prospectively. The uptake and efficacy of HCV therapy were compared with those in the time period before the availability of PIs.

RESULTS

Upon approval of PI treatment in Switzerland in September 2011, 516 SHCS participants had chronic HCV genotype 1 infection. Of these, 57 (11%) started HCV treatment during the following 2 years with either telaprevir, faldaprevir or boceprevir. Twenty-seven (47%) patients were treatment-naïve, nine (16%) were patients with relapse and 21 (37%) were partial or null responders. Twenty-nine (57%) had advanced fibrosis and 15 (29%) had cirrhosis. End-of-treatment virological response was 84% in treatment-naïve patients, 88% in patients with relapse and 62% in previous nonresponders. Sustained virological response was 78%, 86% and 40% in treatment-naïve patients, patients with relapse and nonresponders, respectively. Treatment uptake was similar before (3.8 per 100 patient-years) and after (6.1 per 100 patient-years) the introduction of PIs, while treatment efficacy increased considerably after the introduction of PIs.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of PI-based HCV treatment in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients improved virological response rates, while treatment uptake remained low. Therefore, the introduction of PIs into the clinical routine was beneficial at the individual level, but had only a modest effect on the burden of HCV infection at the population level.

Virological failure after 1 year of first-line ART is not associated with HIV minority drug resistance in rural Cameroon

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe clinical and virological outcomes in therapy-naive HIV-1-positive patients treated in a routine ART programme in rural Cameroon.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort, 300 consecutive patients starting first-line ART were enrolled and followed for 12 months. Among 238 patients with available viral load data at Month 12, logistic regression was used to analyse risk factors for virological failure (≥1000 HIV RNA copies/mL) including clinical, immunological and virological parameters, as well as data on drug adherence. Population sequencing was performed to detect the presence of drug-resistance mutations in patients with virological failure at Month 12; minority drug-resistance mutations at baseline were analysed using next-generation sequencing in these patients and matched controls.

RESULTS

At Month 12, 38/238 (16%) patients experienced virological failure (≥1000 HIV RNA copies/mL). Patients with virological failure were younger, had lower CD4 cell counts and were more often WHO stage 3 or 4 at baseline. Sixty-three percent of patients with virological failure developed at least one drug-resistance mutation. The M184V (n = 18) and K103N (n = 10) mutations were most common. At baseline, 6/30 patients (20%) experiencing virological failure and 6/35 (17%) matched controls had evidence of minority drug-resistance mutations using next-generation sequencing (P = 0.77). Lower CD4 count at baseline (OR per 100 cells/mm(3) lower 1.41, 95% CI 1.02-1.96, P = 0.04) and poorer adherence (OR per 1% lower 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08, P < 0.001) were associated with a higher risk of virological failure. Unavailability of ART at the treatment centre was the single most common cause for incomplete adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Virological failure after 1 year of ART was not associated with minority drug resistance at baseline but with incomplete adherence. Strategies to assure adherence and uninterrupted drug supplies are pivotal factors for therapy success.

Efficacy of lead-in silibinin and subsequent triple therapy in difficult-to-treat HIV/hepatitis C virus-coinfected patients

OBJECTIVES

The efficacy of current hepatitis C virus (HCV) triple therapy, including a protease inhibitor, is limited in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with advanced liver fibrosis and nonresponse to previous peginterferon-ribavirin. These patients have a low chance (only 30%) of achieving a sustained virological response (SVR) during triple therapy and cannot wait for next-generation anti-HCV drugs. In a pilot study, we investigated the efficacy of a lead-in therapy with silibinin before triple therapy in difficult-to-treat patients.

METHODS

Inclusion criteria were HIV/HCV coinfection with advanced liver fibrosis and documented failure of previous peginterferon-ribavirin treatment. Intervention was lead-in therapy with intravenous silibinin 20 mg/kg/day for 14 days. Subsequently, peginterferon-ribavirin combined with telaprevir was initiated for 12 weeks, followed by peginterferon-ribavirin dual therapy until week 48 after initiation of triple therapy. The outcome measurements were HCV RNA after silibinin lead-in, at weeks 2, 4 and 12 of triple therapy, and SVR at week 24 after the end of treatment.

RESULTS

We examined six HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (four infected with genotype 1a). All had fibrosis grade METAVIR ≥F3 and were on fully suppressive antiretroviral therapy. Mean HCV RNA decline after silibinin therapy was 2.6 log10 IU/mL (range 2-3 log10 IU/mL). Five of the six patients were virologically suppressed at weeks 2 and 4, and all six at week 12 of triple therapy. One experienced a viral breakthrough thereafter. Four of five patients (80%) showed an SVR 24. One patient had an SVR 12 but has not yet reached week 24.

CONCLUSIONS

A lead-in with silibinin before triple therapy is highly effective and increases the probability of HCV treatment success in difficult-to-treat HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with advanced liver fibrosis and previous failure of peginterferon-ribavirin.

[Evolution and Diversity of HIV-1]

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is the cause of a devastating pandemic. HIV-1 infection leads to the disease AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) after several years of clinical latency defined by the occurrence of opportunistic infections. The immune system of the patient is not capable of controlling the virus, not to mention to eliminate the virus. Nowadays, the antiretroviral therapy is very efficient; however, eradication of HIV-1 is currently not feasible. Countless efforts to develop an effective vaccine failed so far. One common cause for development of drug resistance during antiretroviral therapy and these fallibilities of the immune system and vaccine candidates is the rapid adaptability of HIV-1 and the associated high diversity of circulating virus variants world wide and within each patient.

Direct measurement of CD8+ T cell responses in macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus

The simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) macaque model system has been used extensively to study AIDS pathogenesis and to test candidate vaccines for their ability to protect against homologous or heterologous challenge with pathogenic SIV or SHIV. Recent studies suggest that stimulation of HIV-1-specific CTL responses is important for effective vaccination against HIV-1. While quantitative measurements of SIV-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses have been facilitated by the use of tetrameric peptide complexes, this technique is currently limited to the study of Mamu-A*01-positive rhesus macaques. Furthermore, very few SIV-specific CTL epitopes have been identified, and there is limited identification of other MHC alleles in macaques. In this study, cytokine flow cytometry (CFC) was used to quantify SIV-specific CD8+ antigen-reactive T cells in macaques infected with SIV. We found a strong correlation (r = 0.96, P < 0.001) between CD8+ antigen-reactive T cells stained with the Mamu-A*01 p11C, C-M tetramer and production of intracellular TNF-alpha in the CFC assay. Furthermore, the CFC assay was used to identify a novel SIV-specific CTL epitope in Envelope (SIV Env, a.a. 486-494, sequence AEVAELYRL). The use of the CFC assay facilitates the study of antigen-reactive T cell responses in SIV infection and vaccination.

Simian immunodeficiency virus-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes and protection against challenge in rhesus macaques immunized with a live attenuated simian immunodeficiency virus vaccine

In this study, we examined the role of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) in macaques immunized with an attenuated strain of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIVmac239Deltanef) in protection against pathogenic challenge with SIVmac251. Our results indicate that attenuated SIVmac239Deltanef can elicit specific CTL precursor cells (CTLp), but no correlation was observed between breadth or strength of CTLp response to structural proteins SIV-Env, -Gamg or -Pol (as measured by limiting dilution assay) and protection against infection. In one animal, we longitudinally followed the SIV-Gag-specific response to an MHC class I Mamu-A*01-restricted epitope p11C, C-M using a tetrameric MHC/peptide complex reagent. A low frequency of SIV p11C, C-M peptide-specific tetramer-reactive cells was present at the time of challenge but could be expanded in vitro. Surprisingly, the low level of Mamu-A*01/p11C, C-M-specific CTLs induced through attenuated SIVmac239Deltanef vaccination increased in the absence of detectable SIVmac251 or SIVmac239Deltanef proviral DNA. Overall, our results suggest that protection against infection in this model can be achieved through more than one mechanism, with SIV-specific CTLs being important in controlling SIVmac239Deltanef viral replication postchallenge.