Estimated mortality due to seasonal influenza in southeast of Iran, 2006/2007 to 2011/2012 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

Global estimates showed an estimate of up to 650,000 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths annually. However, the mortality rate of seasonal influenza is unknown for most countries in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, including Iran. We aimed to estimate the excess mortality attributable to seasonal influenza in Kerman province, southeast Iran for the influenza seasons 2006/2007-2011/2012.

METHODS

We applied a Serfling model to the weekly total pneumonia and influenza (PI) mortality rate during winter to define the epidemic periods and to the weekly age-specific PI, respiratory, circulatory, and all-cause deaths during non-epidemic periods to estimate baseline mortality. The excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed and predicted mortality. Country estimates were obtained by multiplying the estimated annual excess death rates by the populations of Iran.

RESULTS

We estimated an annual average excess of 40 PI, 100 respiratory, 94 circulatory, and 306 all-cause deaths attributable to seasonal influenza in Kerman; corresponding to annual rates of 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-1.8) PI, 3.6 (95% CI 2.6-4.8) respiratory, 3.4 (95% CI 2.1-5.2) circulatory, and 11.0 (95% CI 7.3-15.6) all-cause deaths per 100,000 population. Adults ≥75 years accounted for 56% and 53% of all excess respiratory and circulatory deaths, respectively. At country level, we would expect an annual of 1119 PI to 8792 all-cause deaths attributable to seasonal influenza.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings help to define the mortality burden of seasonal influenza, most of which affects adults aged ≥75 years. This study supports influenza prevention and vaccination programs in older adults.

Risk Factors for Severe Cutaneous Anthrax in a Retrospective Case Series and Use of a Clinical Algorithm to Identify Likely Meningitis and Evaluate Treatment Outcomes, Kyrgyz Republic, 2005-2012

BACKGROUND

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines currently recommend triple-therapy antimicrobial treatment for anthrax meningitis. In the Kyrgyz Republic, a country with endemic anthrax, cutaneous anthrax patients are routinely hospitalized and treated successfully with only monotherapy or dual therapy. Clinical algorithms have been developed to identify patients with likely anthrax meningitis based on signs and symptoms alone. We sought to retrospectively identify likely meningitis patients in the Kyrgyz Republic using a clinical algorithm and evaluate risk factors and their outcomes by type of treatment.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective chart review of cutaneous anthrax patients in the Kyrgyz Republic from 2005 through 2012. Using previous methods, we developed a highly specific algorithm to categorize patients by meningitis status. We then evaluated patient risk factors, treatments, and outcomes by disease severity and meningitis status.

RESULTS

We categorized 37 of 230 cutaneous anthrax patients as likely having meningitis. All 37 likely meningitis patients survived, receiving only mono- or dual-therapy antimicrobials. We identified underlying medical conditions, such as obesity, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tobacco and alcohol use, as potential risk factors for severe anthrax and anthrax meningitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our analyses, treatment of anthrax meningitis may not require 3 antimicrobials, which could impact future anthrax treatment recommendations. In addition, chronic comorbidities may increase risk for severe anthrax and anthrax meningitis. Future research should further investigate potential risk factors for severe anthrax and their impact on laboratory-confirmed meningitis and evaluate mono- and dual-therapy antimicrobial regimens for anthrax meningitis.

Variability in published rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations: A systematic review, 2007-2018

Background

Influenza burden estimates help provide evidence to support influenza prevention and control programs at local and international levels.

Methods

Through a systematic review, we aimed to identify all published articles estimating rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations, describe methods and data sources used, and identify regions of the world where estimates are still lacking. We evaluated study heterogeneity to determine if we could pool published rates to generate global estimates of influenza-associated hospitalization.

Results

We identified 98 published articles estimating influenza-associated hospitalization rates from 2007-2018. Most articles (65%) identified were from high-income countries, with 34 of those (53%) presenting estimates from the United States. While we identified fewer publications (18%) from low- and lower-middle-income countries, 50% of those were published from 2015-2018, suggesting an increase in publications from lower-income countries in recent years. Eighty percent (n = 78) used a multiplier approach. Regression modelling techniques were only used with data from upper-middle or high-income countries where hospital administrative data was available. We identified variability in the methods, case definitions, and data sources used, including 91 different age groups and 11 different categories of case definitions. Due to the high observed heterogeneity across articles (I²>99%), we were unable to pool published estimates.

Conclusions

The variety of methods, data sources, and case definitions adapted locally suggests that the current literature cannot be synthesized to generate global estimates of influenza-associated hospitalization burden.

Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Estimates of influenza-associated mortality are important for national and international decision making on public health priorities. Previous estimates of 250 000-500 000 annual influenza deaths are outdated. We updated the estimated number of global annual influenza-associated respiratory deaths using country-specific influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates from 1999-2015.

METHODS

We estimated country-specific influenza-associated respiratory excess mortality rates (EMR) for 33 countries using time series log-linear regression models with vital death records and influenza surveillance data. To extrapolate estimates to countries without data, we divided countries into three analytic divisions for three age groups (<65 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years) using WHO Global Health Estimate (GHE) respiratory infection mortality rates. We calculated mortality rate ratios (MRR) to account for differences in risk of influenza death across countries by comparing GHE respiratory infection mortality rates from countries without EMR estimates with those with estimates. To calculate death estimates for individual countries within each age-specific analytic division, we multiplied randomly selected mean annual EMRs by the country's MRR and population. Global 95% credible interval (CrI) estimates were obtained from the posterior distribution of the sum of country-specific estimates to represent the range of possible influenza-associated deaths in a season or year. We calculated influenza-associated deaths for children younger than 5 years for 92 countries with high rates of mortality due to respiratory infection using the same methods.

FINDINGS

EMR-contributing countries represented 57% of the global population. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated respiratory EMR ranged from 0·1 to 6·4 per 100 000 individuals for people younger than 65 years, 2·9 to 44·0 per 100 000 individuals for people aged between 65 and 74 years, and 17·9 to 223·5 per 100 000 for people older than 75 years. We estimated that 291 243-645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0-8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually. The highest mortality rates were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa (2·8-16·5 per 100 000 individuals), southeast Asia (3·5-9·2 per 100 000 individuals), and among people aged 75 years or older (51·3-99·4 per 100 000 individuals). For 92 countries, we estimated that among children younger than 5 years, 9243-105 690 influenza-associated respiratory deaths occur annually.

INTERPRETATION

These global influenza-associated respiratory mortality estimates are higher than previously reported, suggesting that previous estimates might have underestimated disease burden. The contribution of non-respiratory causes of death to global influenza-associated mortality should be investigated.

FUNDING

None.