What do we want to estimate from observational datasets? Choosing appropriate statistical analysis methods based on the chemical management phase

The goals of observational dataset analysis vary with the management phase of environments threatened by anthropogenic chemicals. For example, identifying severely compromised sites is necessary to determine candidate sites in which to implement measures during early management phases. Among the most effective approaches is developing regression models with high predictive power for dependent variable values using the Akaike information criterion. However, this analytical approach may be theoretically inappropriate to obtain the necessary information in various chemical management phases, such as the intervention effect size of a chemical required in the late chemical management phase to evaluate the necessity of an effluent standard and its specific value. However, choosing appropriate statistical methods based on the data analysis objective in each chemical management phase has rarely been performed. This study provides an overview of the primary data analysis objectives in the early and late chemical management phases. For each objective, several suitable statistical analysis methods for observational datasets are detailed. In addition, the study presents examples of linear regression analysis procedures using an available dataset derived from field surveys conducted in Japanese rivers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1414-1422. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Illustrating a Species Sensitivity Distribution for Nano- and Microplastic Particles Using Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling

Environmental contamination with nano- and microplastic (NMP) particles is an emerging global concern. The derivation of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) is an essential step in estimating a hazardous concentration for 5% of the species (HC5), and this HC5 value is often used as a "safe" concentration in ecological risk assessment, that is, predicted-no-effect concentration. Although properties of plastics such as particle size can affect toxic effect concentrations, such influences have not yet been quantitatively considered in estimating SSDs for NMP particles. We illustrate a log-normal SSD using chronic lowest-observed-effect concentrations (LOECs) of NMP particles from readily available toxicity data sets, considering the influence of particle size, polymer type, and freshwater or marine test media by adopting Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques. Results of the hierarchical SSD modeling suggest that the SSD mean was negatively associated with particle size and was lower in marine media than in freshwater media. The posterior medians of the HC5 estimated from the LOEC-based SSD varied by a factor of 10 depending on these factors (e.g., 1.8-20 μg/L for the particle size range of 0.1-5000 μm in the marine environment). Hierarchical SSD modeling allows us to clarify the influences of important factors such as NMP properties on effect concentrations, thereby helping to guide more relevant ecological risk assessments for NMP. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:954-960. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Evaluation of interregional consistency in associations between neonicotinoid insecticides and functions of benthic invertebrate communities in rivers in urban rice-paddy areas

Neonicotinoid insecticides pose risks that need to be managed for conservation of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the associations between the estimated environmental concentrations of two neonicotinoid insecticides (imidacloprid and dinotefuran) and the total abundances of seven functional feeding groups (FFGs) of benthic invertebrate communities in rivers in urban rice-paddy areas in four Japanese regions. Regional datasets of benthic invertebrate communities and environmental variables available for Japan were analyzed. The associations between neonicotinoid exposure and benthic functional groups in each region were evaluated by applying a partial redundancy analysis to each regional dataset. We then examined whether there was an interregionally consistent pattern in the observed associations to ascertain the general applicability of the associations. In two of the four regions, the associations of the total abundances of the seven FFGs with neonicotinoid concentrations were significant, suggesting negative effects of imidacloprid and dinotefuran on river ecosystem functions in these two Japanese regions. Moreover, although the associations in the remaining two regions were not significant, the pattern of associations of the total abundances of six of the FFGs (shredders, filter feeders, collectors, grazers, predators, and scavengers) with imidacloprid concentrations seemed to be consistent among the four regions. This implies broad-scale negative effects of imidacloprid on river ecosystem functions in urban rice-paddy areas. We did not, however, find any interregionally consistent patterns in the associations with dinotefuran concentrations. This may be related to the multicollinearity with the imidacloprid concentrations and/or the low maximum dinotefuran concentration relative to the toxicity values of this neonicotinoid. Therefore, the association between dinotefuran and river ecosystem functions requires additional investigation. We believe that this type of hypotheses-generating research using country-wide biomonitoring and exposure databases can be a great aid in future ecological risk assessment studies.

The effect of intervention in nickel concentrations on benthic macroinvertebrates: A case study of statistical causal inference in ecotoxicology

Field survey-based ecological risk assessments for trace metals are conducted to examine the necessity and/or effectiveness of management intervention, such as setting of environmental quality standards. Observational datasets often involve confounders that may bias estimation of the effects of intervention (e.g., reduction of trace-metal concentrations through regulation). The field of ecotoxicology lags behind some other research fields in understanding proper analytical procedures for causal inference from observational datasets; there are only a few field survey-based ecotoxicological studies that have explicitly controlled for confounders in their statistical analyses. In the present study, we estimated the effect of intervention in nickel concentrations on Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera richness in rivers in Japan. We also provide detailed explanations for the backgrounds of spurious associations derived from confounders and on proper analytical procedures for obtaining an unbiased estimate of the targeted intervention effect by using regression analysis. We constructed a multiple regression model based on a causal diagram for aquatic insects and environmental factors, and on "the backdoor criterion," that enabled us to determine the set of covariates required to obtain an unbiased estimate of the targeted intervention effect from regression coefficients. We found that management intervention in nickel concentrations may be ineffective compared to intervention in organic pollution, and that analysis ignoring the confounders overestimated the effect of intervention in nickel concentrations. Our results highlight the fact that confounders can lead to misjudging the necessity for management of anthropogenic chemical substances. Confounders should be explicitly specified and statistically controlled to achieve a comprehensive assessment of ecological risks for various substances.

Associations of Community Structure and Functions of Benthic Invertebrates with Nickel Concentrations: Analyses from Field Surveys

Field surveys provide valuable empirical information about the effects of heavy metals on the biological integrity of river ecosystems. To evaluate the effect of nickel (Ni) on aquatic organisms, we conducted field surveys of benthic invertebrates and Ni concentrations at 45 sites in 19 rivers in Japan. We examined the relationships between 11 structural or functional measures of benthic invertebrate communities and free Ni ion concentrations with a 90th quantile regression model. Among the measures, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness, total wet biomass of all invertebrates, and total abundance of filter feeders were negatively associated with free Ni ion concentrations. The total abundance of mud burrowers and their percentage contribution to the abundance of all invertebrates as well as the total abundances of collector-gatherers and predators were positively associated with the Ni ion concentrations. The free ion concentrations of Ni associated with a 5% reduction of one of the 3 measures from its 90th quantile value at reference sites (EC5) were estimated to be 0.2 to 7.6 µg/L. The point estimates of EC5 were similar in order of magnitude to the environmental quality standard for Ni in the European Union. However, the usefulness of simple point estimates of effective concentrations based on quantile regression lines should be carefully examined because the uncertainties in our EC5 values were large. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:1728-1737. © 2019 SETAC.