Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Cities of Chile: Magnitude, Inequalities, and Urban Determinants

We estimated excess mortality in Chilean cities during the COVID-19 pandemic and its association with city-level factors. We used mortality, and social and built environment data from the SALURBAL study for 21 Chilean cities, composed of 81 municipalities or "comunas", grouped in 4 macroregions. We estimated excess mortality by comparing deaths from January 2020 up to June 2021 vs 2016-2019, using a generalized additive model. We estimated a total of 21,699 (95%CI 21,693 to 21,704) excess deaths across the 21 cities. Overall relative excess mortality was highest in the Metropolitan (Santiago) and the North regions (28.9% and 22.2%, respectively), followed by the South and Center regions (17.6% and 14.1%). At the city-level, the highest relative excess mortality was found in the Northern cities of Calama and Iquique (around 40%). Cities with higher residential overcrowding had higher excess mortality. In Santiago, capital of Chile, municipalities with higher educational attainment had lower relative excess mortality. These results provide insight into the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 in Chile, which has served as a magnifier of preexisting urban health inequalities, exhibiting different impacts between and within cities. Delving into these findings could help prioritize strategies addressed to prevent deaths in more vulnerable communities.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: The Role of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Deprivation

The prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and reduction of its disparities necessitates research on the role of contextual social determinants of health. Empirical evidence on the role of contextual factors (e.g., neighborhood built and social environment) in these disparities is extremely limited. Oluyomi and colleagues conducted a Texas-wide study examining the contribution of neighborhood-level socioeconomic deprivation, proxied by the area deprivation index on HCC disparities. Future studies are needed to complement and extend these findings. See related article by Oluyomi et al., p. 1402.

Scaling of mortality in 742 metropolitan areas of the Americas

We explored how mortality scales with city population size using vital registration and population data from 742 cities in 10 Latin American countries and the United States. We found that more populated cities had lower mortality (sublinear scaling), driven by a sublinear pattern in U.S. cities, while Latin American cities had similar mortality across city sizes. Sexually transmitted infections and homicides showed higher rates in larger cities (superlinear scaling). Tuberculosis mortality behaved sublinearly in U.S. and Mexican cities and superlinearly in other Latin American cities. Other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths, and deaths due to noncommunicable diseases were generally sublinear in the United States and linear or superlinear in Latin America. Our findings reveal distinct patterns across the Americas, suggesting no universal relation between city size and mortality, pointing to the importance of understanding the processes that explain heterogeneity in scaling behavior or mortality to further advance urban health policies.

Investigating regional excess mortality during 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in selected Latin American countries

In this paper, we measure the effect of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wave at the national and subnational levels in selected Latin American countries that were most affected: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. We used publicly available monthly mortality data to measure the impacts of the pandemic using excess mortality for each country and its regions. We compare the mortality, at national and regional levels, in 2020 to the mortality levels of recent trends and provide estimates of the impact of mortality on life expectancy at birth. Our findings indicate that from April 2020 on, mortality exceeded its usual monthly levels in multiple areas of each country. In Mexico and Peru, excess mortality was spreading through many areas by the end of the second half of 2020. To a lesser extent, we observed a similar pattern in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. We also found that as the pandemic progressed, excess mortality became more visible in areas with poorer socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. This excess mortality has reduced life expectancy across these countries by 2-10 years. Despite the lack of reliable information on COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality is a useful indicator for measuring the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in the context of Latin American countries, where there is still a lack of good information on causes of death in their vital registration systems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00139-1.

Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Guatemala

Objectives. To describe excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guatemala during 2020 by week, age, sex, and place of death. Methods. We used mortality data from 2015 to 2020, gathered through the vital registration system of Guatemala. We calculated weekly mortality rates, overall and stratified by age, sex, and place of death. We fitted a generalized additive model to calculate excess deaths, adjusting for seasonality and secular trends and compared excess deaths to the official COVID-19 mortality count. Results. We found an initial decline of 26% in mortality rates during the first weeks of the pandemic in 2020, compared with 2015 to 2019. These declines were sustained through October 2020 for the population younger than 20 years and for deaths in public spaces and returned to normal from July onward in the population aged 20 to 39 years. We found a peak of 73% excess mortality in mid-July, especially in the population aged 40 years or older. We estimated a total of 8036 excess deaths (95% confidence interval = 7935, 8137) in 2020, 46% higher than the official COVID-19 mortality count. Conclusions. The extent of this health crisis is underestimated when COVID-19 confirmed death counts are used. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10): 1839-1846. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306452).

Mortality amenable to healthcare in Latin American cities: a cross-sectional study examining between-country variation in amenable mortality and the role of urban metrics

Background

This study examined the variation in city-level amenable mortality, i.e. mortality due to conditions that can be mitigated in the presence of timely and effective healthcare, in 363 Latin American cities and measured associations between amenable-mortality rates and urban metrics.

Methods

We used death records from 363 cities with populations of >100 000 people in nine Latin American countries from 2010 to 2016. We calculated sex-specific age-adjusted amenable-mortality rates per 100 000. We fitted multilevel linear models with cities nested within countries and estimated associations between amenable mortality and urban metrics, including population size and growth, fragmentation of urban development and socio-economic status.

Results

Cities in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil had the highest rates of amenable mortality. Overall, >70% of the variability in amenable mortality was due to between-country heterogeneity. But for preventable amenable mortality, those for which the healthcare system can prevent new cases, most of the variability in rates occurred between cities within countries. Population size and fragmentation of urban development were associated with amenable mortality. Higher fragmentation of urban development was associated with lower amenable mortality in small cities and higher amenable mortality in large cities. Population growth and higher city-level socio-economic status were associated with lower amenable mortality.

Conclusions

Most of the variability in amenable mortality in Latin American cities was due to between-county heterogeneity. However, urban metrics such as population size and growth, fragmentation of urban development and city-level socio-economic status may have a role in the distribution of amenable mortality across cities within countries.

Ambient fine particulate matter in Latin American cities: Levels, population exposure, and associated urban factors

BACKGROUND

Exposure to particulate matter (PM_2.5) is a major risk factor for morbidity and mortality. Yet few studies have examined patterns of population exposure and investigated the predictors of PM_2.5 across the rapidly growing cities in lower- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES

Characterize PM_2.5 levels, describe patterns of population exposure, and investigate urban factors as predictors of PM_2.5 levels.

METHODS

We used data from the Salud Urbana en America Latina/Urban Health in Latin America (SALURBAL) study, a multi-country assessment of the determinants of urban health in Latin America, to characterize PM_2.5 levels in 366 cities comprising over 100,000 residents using satellite-derived estimates. Factors related to urban form and transportation were explored.

RESULTS

We found that about 172 million or 58% of the population studied lived in areas with air pollution levels above the defined WHO-AQG of 10 μg/m³ annual average. We also found that larger cities, cities with higher GDP, higher motorization rate and higher congestion tended to have higher PM_2.5. In contrast cities with higher population density had lower levels of PM_2.5. In addition, at the sub-city level, higher intersection density was associated with higher PM_2.5 and more green space was associated with lower PM_2.5. When all exposures were examined adjusted for each other, higher city per capita GDP and higher sub-city intersection density remained associated with higher PM_2.5 levels, while higher city population density remained associated with lower levels. The presence of mass transit was also associated with lower PM_2.5 after adjustment. The motorization rate also remained associated with PM_2.5 and its inclusion attenuated the effect of population density.

DISCUSSION

These results show that PM_2.5 exposures remain a major health risk in Latin American cities and suggest that urban planning and transportation policies could have a major impact on ambient levels.

Evaluating the health effects of place-based slum upgrading physical environment interventions: A systematic review (2012-2018)

Rapid urbanization in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) is associated with increasing population living in informal settlements. Inadequate infrastructure and disenfranchisement in settlements can create environments hazardous to health. Placed-based physical environment upgrading interventions have potential to improve environmental and economic conditions linked to health outcomes. Summarizing and assessing evidence of the impact of prior interventions is critical to motivating and selecting the most effective upgrading strategies moving forward. Scientific and grey literature were systematically reviewed to identify evaluations of physical environment slum upgrading interventions in LMICs published between 2012 and 2018. Thirteen evaluations that fulfilled inclusion criteria were reviewed. Quality of evaluations was assessed using an adapted Effective Public Health Practice Project Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. Findings were then pooled with those published prior to 2012. Narrative analysis was performed. Of thirteen evaluations, eight used a longitudinal study design (“primary evaluations”). All primary evaluations were based in Latin America and included two housing, two transportation, and four comprehensive intervention evaluations. Three supporting evaluations assessed housing interventions in Argentina and South Africa; two assessed a comprehensive intervention in India. Effects by intervention-type included improvements in quality of life and communicable diseases after housing interventions, possible improvements in safety after transportation and comprehensive interventions, and possible non-statistically significant effects on social capital after comprehensive interventions. Effects due to interventions may vary by regional context and intervention scope. Limited strong evidence and the diffuse nature of comprehensive interventions suggests a need for attention to measurement of intervention exposure and analytic approaches to account for confounding and selection bias in evaluation. In addition to health improvements, evaluators should consider unintended health consequences and environmental impact. Understanding and isolating the effects of place-based interventions can inform necessary policy decisions to address inadequate living conditions as rapid urban growth continues across the globe.

Stakeholder Engagement in the Translation of a Hypertension Control Program to Guatemala's Public Primary Health Care System: Lessons Learned, Challenges, and Opportunities

BACKGROUND

There is an urgent need to define appropriate intervention strategies to control blood pressure in low- and middle-income countries. In 2018, a program proven effective in Argentina was translated to Guatemala's public primary health care system in rural and primarily indigenous communities.

OBJECTIVES

This paper describes the stakeholder engagement process used to adapt the program to the Guatemalan rural context prior to implementing a type II hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial and shares lessons learned.

METHODS

We identified key differences in the 2 contexts that are relevant to translating the intervention to the Guatemalan context. Alongside interviews and focus group discussions, we conducted consultation workshops in July and August 2018, applying a participatory translation process involving patients, family members, community members, health care providers, and Ministry of Health officials. The process consisted of multiple meetings in Guatemala City, as well as meetings in each of the 5 departments where the study will be implemented, and 1 district per department. During the workshops, we presented the evidence-based experience from Argentina and then focused on the challenges and recommended solutions that the participants identified for each of the intervention's 6 components. The process concluded with a meeting in which the research team and Ministry of Health officials defined specific details of the intervention.

RESULTS

The outcome of the process is an adapted approach appropriate to integrate into Guatemala's public primary health care system in the trial phase. The approach considers the challenges and recommended strategies for each of the 6 intervention components.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified lessons learned, challenges, and opportunities during the adaptation process. Findings will inform ongoing stakeholder engagement during the study implementation and future scale-up and efforts to translate evidence-based hypertension control strategies to low- and middle-income countries globally.

Inequalities in life expectancy in six large Latin American cities from the SALURBAL study: an ecological analysis

BACKGROUND

Latin America is one of the most unequal regions in the world, but evidence is lacking on the magnitude of health inequalities in urban areas of the region. Our objective was to examine inequalities in life expectancy in six large Latin American cities and its association with a measure of area-level socioeconomic status.

METHODS

In this ecological analysis, we used data from the Salud Urbana en America Latina (SALURBAL) study on six large cities in Latin America (Buenos Aires, Argentina; Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Santiago, Chile; San José, Costa Rica; Mexico City, Mexico; and Panama City, Panama), comprising 266 subcity units, for the period 2011-15 (expect for Panama city, which was for 2012-16). We calculated average life expectancy at birth by sex and subcity unit with life tables using age-specific mortality rates estimated from a Bayesian model, and calculated the difference between the ninth and first decile of life expectancy at birth (P90-P10 gap) across subcity units in cities. We also analysed the association between life expectancy at birth and socioeconomic status at the subcity-unit level, using education as a proxy for socioeconomic status, and whether any geographical patterns existed in cities between subcity units.

FINDINGS

We found large spatial differences in average life expectancy at birth in Latin American cities, with the largest P90-P10 gaps observed in Panama City (15·0 years for men and 14·7 years for women), Santiago (8·9 years for men and 17·7 years for women), and Mexico City (10·9 years for men and 9·4 years for women), and the narrowest in Buenos Aires (4·4 years for men and 5·8 years for women), Belo Horizonte (4·0 years for men and 6·5 years for women), and San José (3·9 years for men and 3·0 years for women). Higher area-level socioeconomic status was associated with higher life expectancy, especially in Santiago (change in life expectancy per P90-P10 change unit-level of educational attainment 8·0 years [95% CI 5·8-10·3] for men and 11·8 years [7·1-16·4] for women) and Panama City (7·3 years [2·6-12·1] for men and 9·0 years [2·4-15·5] for women). We saw an increase in life expectancy at birth from east to west in Panama City and from north to south in core Mexico City, and a core-periphery divide in Buenos Aires and Santiago. Whereas for San José the central part of the city had the lowest life expectancy and in Belo Horizonte the central part of the city had the highest life expectancy.

INTERPRETATION

Large spatial differences in life expectancy in Latin American cities and their association with social factors highlight the importance of area-based approaches and policies that address social inequalities in improving health in cities of the region.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.