COVID-19-related mortality and hospital admissions in the VIVALDI study cohort: October 2020 to March 2023

BACKGROUND

Long-term-care facilities (LTCFs) were heavily affected by COVID-19 early in the pandemic, but the impact of the virus has reduced over time with vaccination campaigns and build-up of immunity from prior infection.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the mortality and hospital admissions associated with SARS-CoV-2 in LTCFs in England over the course of the VIVALDI study, from October 2020 to March 2023.

METHODS

We included residents aged ≥65 years from participating LTCFs who had available follow-up time within the analysis period. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) of COVID-19-linked mortality and hospital admissions per calendar quarter, along with infection fatality ratios (IFRs, within 28 days) and infection hospitalization ratios (IHRs, within 14 days) following positive SARS-CoV-2 test.

RESULTS

A total of 26,286 residents were included, with at least one positive test for SARS-CoV-2 in 8513 (32.4%). The IR of COVID-19-related mortality peaked in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021 at 0.47 per 1000 person-days (1 kpd) (around a third of all deaths), in comparison with 0.10 per 1 kpd for Q1 2023 which had a similar IR of SARS-CoV-2 infections. There was a fall in observed IFR for SARS-CoV-2 infections from 24.9% to 6.7% between these periods, with a fall in IHR from 12.1% to 8.8%. The population had high overall IRs for mortality for each quarter evaluated, corresponding to annual mortality probability of 28.8-41.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Standardized real-time monitoring of hospitalization and mortality following infection in LTCFs could inform policy on the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent transmission.

Feasibility study of hospital antimicrobial stewardship analytics using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Hospital antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programmes are multidisciplinary initiatives to optimize antimicrobial use. Most hospitals depend on time-consuming manual audits to monitor clinicians' prescribing. But much of the information needed could be sourced from electronic health records (EHRs).

OBJECTIVES

To develop an informatics methodology to analyse characteristics of hospital AMS practice using routine electronic prescribing and laboratory records.

METHODS

Feasibility study using electronic prescribing, laboratory and clinical coding records from adult patients admitted to six specialities at Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, UK (September 2017-August 2018). The study involved: (i) a review of AMS standards of care; (ii) their translation into concepts measurable from commonly available EHRs; and (iii) a pilot application in an EHR cohort study (n = 61679 admissions).

RESULTS

We developed data modelling methods to characterize antimicrobial use (antimicrobial therapy episode linkage methods, therapy table, therapy changes). Prescriptions were linked into antimicrobial therapy episodes (mean 2.4 prescriptions/episode; mean length of therapy 5.8 days), enabling several actionable findings. For example, 22% of therapy episodes for low-severity community-acquired pneumonia were congruent with prescribing guidelines, with a tendency to use broader-spectrum antibiotics. Analysis of therapy changes revealed IV to oral therapy switching was delayed by an average 3.6 days (95% CI: 3.4-3.7). Microbial cultures were performed prior to treatment initiation in just 22% of antibacterial prescriptions. The proposed methods enabled fine-grained monitoring of AMS practice down to specialities, wards and individual clinical teams by case mix, enabling more meaningful peer comparison.

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to use hospital EHRs to construct rapid, meaningful measures of prescribing quality with potential to support quality improvement interventions (audit/feedback to prescribers), engagement with front-line clinicians on optimizing prescribing, and AMS impact evaluation studies.

Understanding non-compliance with surgical antibiotic prophylaxis prescribing guidance, in Nigeria

Background

Antimicrobial Resistance is a prominent worldwide threat that is increasing in low-to-middle income countries. Good antibiotic stewardship (AMS) improves compliance with evidence-based antimicrobial prescribing guidelines but just 4% of LMICs have national AMS initiatives in place and only 15% have national policies. As high as 20-50% of surgical antibiotic prophylaxis prescription in Nigeria is thought to be non-compliant. Behaviour change theories can structure our understanding of why poor compliance occurs and can facilitate development of effective interventions to improve it.

Methods

The Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF; Michie et al. 2009) was used to develop an online survey and interview schedule for focus group discussions. Audio recordings were transcribed and analysed by two researchers using thematic analysis, TDF and the COM-B model of behaviour change (Michie et al. 2010).

Results

60 surgeons (59% male; 43% surgical consultant; 5-10 yrs experience) from Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos University College of Medicine and Niger Delta University Teaching Hospital completed the survey. A sub-group of 14 surgeons (79% male; 86% surgical consultant; 10-15 yrs experience) participated in three focus groups. Whilst compliance with guidance was generally considered desirable, surgeons reported translating guidance to Nigerian practice and context was often difficult, time-consuming and restricted by not having access to recommended antibiotics.

Conclusions

Behaviour change theory can be used to further our understanding of key barriers and facilitators to non-compliance with surgical antibiotic prophylaxis prescribing guidance, amongst surgeons in Nigeria. This presentation will conclude with discussion of how findings from this project are being used to develop a cost-effective, scalable, decision-support smartphone app for prescribing behaviour change.

Key messages

Behaviour change theory can be used effectively to further understanding of barriers and facilitators to Nigerian surgeons’ non-compliance with surgical antibiotic prophylaxis prescribing guidance. We must form a comprehensive understanding of factors (social & environmental) driving non-compliant attitudes and behaviours, before creating interventions to change prescribing behaviour.

Hepatitis C among vulnerable populations: A seroprevalence study of homeless, people who inject drugs and prisoners in London

Injecting drugs substantially increases the risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and is common in the homeless and prisoners. Capturing accurate data on disease prevalence within these groups is challenging but is essential to inform strategies to reduce HCV transmission. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of HCV in these populations. We conducted a cross-sectional study between May 2011 and June 2013 in London and, using convenience sampling, recruited participants from hostels for the homeless, drug treatment services and a prison. A questionnaire was administered and blood samples were tested for hepatitis C. We recruited 491 individuals who were homeless (40.7%), 205 drug users (17%) and 511 prisoners (42.3%). Eight per cent of patients (98/1207, 95% CI: 6.7%-9.8%) had active HCV infection and 3% (38/1207, 95% CI: 2.3%-4.3%) past HCV infection. Overall, one quarter (51/205) of people recruited in drug treatment services, 13% (65/491) of people from homeless residential sites and 4% (20/511) prisoners in this study were anti-HCV positive. Seventy-seven of the 136 (56.6%, 95% CI: 47.9%-65%) of HCV infected participants identified had a history of all three risk factors (homelessness, imprisonment and drug use), 27.3% (95% CI: 20.1%-35.6%) had 2 overlapping risk factors, and 15.4% (95% CI: 10.6%-23.7%) one risk factor. Drug treatment services, prisons and homelessness services provide good opportunities for identifying hepatitis C-infected individuals. Effective models need to be developed to ensure case identification in these settings that can lead to an effective treatment and an efficient HCV prevention.

Assessing hepatitis C spontaneous clearance and understanding associated factors-A systematic review and meta-analysis

New advances in the treatment of hepatitis C provide high levels of sustained viral response but their expense limits availability in publicly funded health systems. The aim of this review was to estimate the proportion of patients who will spontaneously clear HCV, to identify factors that are associated with clearance and to support better targeting of directly acting antivirals. We searched Ovid EMBASE, Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed from 1 January 1994 to 30 June 2015 for studies reporting hepatitis C spontaneous clearance and/or demographic, clinical and behavioural factors associated with clearance. We undertook meta-analyses to estimate the odds of clearance for each predictor. Forty-three studies met the inclusion criteria, representing 20 110 individuals, and 6 of these studies included sufficient data to estimate spontaneous clearance. The proportion achieving clearance within 3, 6, 12 and 24 months following infection were, respectively, 19.8% (95% CI: 2.6%-47.5%), 27.9% (95% CI: 17.2%-41.8%), 36.1% (95% CI: 23.5%-50.9%) and 37.1% (95% CI: 23.7%-52.8%). Individuals who had not spontaneously cleared by 12 months were unlikely to do so. The likelihood of spontaneous clearance was lower in males and individuals with HIV co-infection, the absence of HBV co-infection, asymptomatic infection, black or nonindigenous race, nongenotype 1 infection, older age and alcohol or drug problems. This study suggests that patients continue to spontaneously clear HCV for at least 12 months following initial infection. However, injecting drug users are comparatively less likely to achieve clearance; thus, they should be considered a priority for early treatment given the continuing risks that these individuals pose for onwards transmission.

Mismatch between suspected pyelonephritis and microbiological diagnosis: a cohort study from a UK teaching hospital

Urinary tract infections are a common reason for prescribing empirical antibiotics in the emergency department. This study investigated the role of microbiological culture and urinalysis in the diagnosis of pyelonephritis by extracting data on 105 patients with a clinical diagnosis of pyelonephritis at a London teaching hospital. In total, 99 of 102 patients were treated empirically with intravenous antibiotics, but only 55 of 100 patients who were sampled had microbiological evidence of infection in urine and/or blood. Almost half (10/21) of the patients with a negative urine dipstick test had a positive urine culture. Diagnostic uncertainty in this context undoubtedly drives inappropriate antibiotic use.

A dietary education program for hypercholesterolemic children and their parents

A parent-child autotutorial dietary education program for 4- to 10-year-old, hypercholesterolemic children and their families was developed and pilot tested. The 10-lesson program, designed for weekly use at home, uses a "talking-book" approach (audiotapes with accompanying picture booklet) for the child. Parents are provided with information on ways to make recommended dietary changes, along with hands-on activities to do with the children. To help match the instructional approach to the wide developmental range within the children's age span, materials are divided into three program levels that use different story characters and concept presentations. During program development, evaluation by two children (and their parents) for each of the program levels guided the design and refinement of the lessons. A pilot test among 22 hypercholesterolemic children (whose treatment was limited to diet modification) revealed that children within the 4- to 10-year age range liked the "talking-book" approach and identified positively with the story characters. Parents indicated that their materials were clear and helpful. Between the baseline and 3-month follow-up visits, the children exhibited a significant increase in knowledge of heart healthy foods, a decrease in total fat consumption that approached significance, and a significant decrease in plasma low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol values.