Showcasing MESMER-X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models

Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far, the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received limited attention, even though extreme events are one of the most impactful aspects of climate change. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties such as correlations in space and time. We test different emulator configurations and find that driving the emulations with global mean surface temperature offers an optimal compromise between model complexity and performance. We show that the emulations can mimic the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying climate model simulations and are able to reproduce their natural variability. The general design and the good performance for annual maximum temperatures suggest that the proposed methodology can be applied to other climate extremes.

Catheter-directed thrombolysis in COVID-19 pneumonia with acute PE: Thinking beyond the guidelines

•Patients having COVID-19 pneumonia are at risk of venous thromboembolism. •Prophylaxis versus anticoagulation for severely ill patients is currently debated. •No specific guidelines for the management of severe pulmonary embolism exist. •Endovascular pulmonary embolism therapy may play a critical role in severe COVID-19.

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Rare and Common Variants Conferring Risk of Tooth Agenesis

We present association results from a large genome-wide association study of tooth agenesis (TA) as well as selective TA, including 1,944 subjects with congenitally missing teeth, excluding third molars, and 338,554 controls, all of European ancestry. We also tested the association of previously identified risk variants, for timing of tooth eruption and orofacial clefts, with TA. We report associations between TA and 9 novel risk variants. Five of these variants associate with selective TA, including a variant conferring risk of orofacial clefts. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the genetic architecture of tooth development and disease. The few variants previously associated with TA were uncovered through candidate gene studies guided by mouse knockouts. Knowing the etiology and clinical features of TA is important for planning oral rehabilitation that often involves an interdisciplinary approach.

Ancestry-shift refinement mapping of the C6orf97-ESR1 breast cancer susceptibility locus

We used an approach that we term ancestry-shift refinement mapping to investigate an association, originally discovered in a GWAS of a Chinese population, between rs2046210[T] and breast cancer susceptibility. The locus is on 6q25.1 in proximity to the C6orf97 and estrogen receptor α (ESR1) genes. We identified a panel of SNPs that are correlated with rs2046210 in Chinese, but not necessarily so in other ancestral populations, and genotyped them in breast cancer case∶control samples of Asian, European, and African origin, a total of 10,176 cases and 13,286 controls. We found that rs2046210[T] does not confer substantial risk of breast cancer in Europeans and Africans (OR = 1.04, P = 0.099, and OR = 0.98, P = 0.77, respectively). Rather, in those ancestries, an association signal arises from a group of less common SNPs typified by rs9397435. The rs9397435[G] allele was found to confer risk of breast cancer in European (OR = 1.15, P = 1.2×10⁻³), African (OR = 1.35, P = 0.014), and Asian (OR = 1.23, P = 2.9×10⁻⁴) population samples. Combined over all ancestries, the OR was 1.19 (P = 3.9×10⁻⁷), was without significant heterogeneity between ancestries (P_het = 0.36) and the SNP fully accounted for the association signal in each ancestry. Haplotypes bearing rs9397435[G] are well tagged by rs2046210[T] only in Asians. The rs9397435[G] allele showed associations with both estrogen receptor positive and estrogen receptor negative breast cancer. Using early-draft data from the 1,000 Genomes project, we found that the risk allele of a novel SNP (rs77275268), which is closely correlated with rs9397435, disrupts a partially methylated CpG sequence within a known CTCF binding site. These studies demonstrate that shifting the analysis among ancestral populations can provide valuable resolution in association mapping.

In genome-wide association studies of disease susceptibility, there is no particular expectation that a genotyped SNP showing an association is itself a pathogenic variant. Rather, it is more likely that a SNP giving a signal does so because it is in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with a pathogenic variant. When the analysis is shifted to a population of another ancestry, the tagging relationship between the genotyped SNP and the pathogenic variant may be disrupted, due to differing patterns of LD between populations. Thus, it is not straightforward to determine whether a susceptibility locus identified in one ancestral population is also associated with risk in another. Moreover, the differing patterns of LD between ancestral populations can be used to gain resolution in genetic mapping. We refer to this approach as ancestry-shift refinement mapping. Here, we apply it to a breast cancer risk variant near the estrogen receptor α gene that was initially described in a Chinese population. We show that the tagging relationship between the originally described SNP rs2046210 and the pathogenic variant(s) is not maintained in Europeans and Africans. We identify a SNP, rs9397435, that is associated with breast cancer risk in populations of Asian, European, and African ancestry.

Common variants on chromosomes 2q35 and 16q12 confer susceptibility to estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

Familial clustering studies indicate that breast cancer risk has a substantial genetic component. To identify new breast cancer risk variants, we genotyped approximately 300,000 SNPs in 1,600 Icelandic individuals with breast cancer and 11,563 controls using the Illumina Hap300 platform. We then tested selected SNPs in five replication sample sets. Overall, we studied 4,554 affected individuals and 17,577 controls. Two SNPs consistently associated with breast cancer: approximately 25% of individuals of European descent are homozygous for allele A of rs13387042 on chromosome 2q35 and have an estimated 1.44-fold greater risk than noncarriers, and for allele T of rs3803662 on 16q12, about 7% are homozygous and have a 1.64-fold greater risk. Risk from both alleles was confined to estrogen receptor-positive tumors. At present, no genes have been identified in the linkage disequilibrium block containing rs13387042. rs3803662 is near the 5' end of TNRC9 , a high mobility group chromatin-associated protein whose expression is implicated in breast cancer metastasis to bone.

What is the long term value of multiphasic health screening and the initial judgement of benefit?

The long term effects of multiphasic health screening (MHS) are rarely studied. In 1964 a random sample of 546 women and 544 men born 1899, 1904, 1909, 1914 or 1919 equally distributed on cohorts from the Swedish town Eskilstuna were invited to examination. For several reasons 167 persons (15%) did not participate in the study. In 1969 the whole sample was invited to a second MHS together with a control group that had not been exposed to MHS. Furthermore, 79 of those alive 1989 born 1899 or 1904 and examined 1964 and 1969 were reexamined. Over all survival rate 1989 for those examined 1964 was for males 18% and for females 35%. Screening instruments 1964 and 1969 were questionnaires, laboratory tests, antropometric measurements, ECG, measurement of blood pressure, chest radiography, peak expiratory flow (PEF), tonometry and fundoscopy of the eyes, audiometric screening, dental, gynecological and general clinical examination. Systolic hypertension for both sexes, low PEF and smoking, low cholesterol in women were negatively related to survival. Of 18 diabetics only one was alive at follow-up. No association was found between BMI and mortality for men, but some (1964 p < 0.01; 1969 p < 0.05) for women. Altogether 87 individuals were 1969 judged to have had some benefit of the MHS in 1964, 40 of them substantial. This was, however, not statistically significantly associated with improved survival. Of the reexamined survivors 86% reported to be generally satisfied with their life situation. The prognostic value of graded benefit was analysed in some detail. The survival to age 85 in the group allotted any benefit was somewhat less good (37%) than in the group with no benefit (44%). The difference did not reach statistical significance.