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Durand LO, Cheng PY, Palekar R, Clara W, Jara J, Cerpa M, El Omeiri N, Ropero-Alvarez AM, Ramirez JB, Araya JL, Acosta B, Bruno A, Calderon de Lozano C, Castillo Signor LDC, Matute ML, Jackson-Betty S, Mung KS, Díaz-Quiñonez JA, López-Martinez I, Balmaseda A, Arévalo BM, Vazquez C, Gutierrez V, Garten R, Widdowson MA, Azziz-Baumgartner E. Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2016; 10:170-5. [PMID: 26701079 PMCID: PMC4814866 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/29/2015] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Influenza‐associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics. Objectives Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred. Methods Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009–2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country. Results We analyzed 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months. Conclusions The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Po-Yung Cheng
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Wilfrido Clara
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Jorge Jara
- Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | | | | | | | - Juliana Barbosa Ramirez
- Centro Nacional de Influenza, Laboratorio de Virología, Instituto Nacional De Salud, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Jenny Lara Araya
- Centro Nacional de Influenza, Centro Nacional de Referencia de Virología, Instituto Costarricense de Investigación y Enseñanza en Nutrición y Salud, San Jose, Costa Rica
| | - Belsy Acosta
- Centro Nacional de Influenza, Departamento de Virología, Instituto de Medicina Tropical ‟Pedro Kouríˮ, Havana, Cuba
| | - Alfredo Bruno
- El Centro de Referencia Nacional de Influenza y Otros Virus Respiratorios Insituto Nacional de Investigacion en Salud Publica (INSPI), Quito, Ecuador
| | - Celina Calderon de Lozano
- Unidad de Vigilancia Laboratorial Dr. Max Bloch, Centro Nacional de Influenza, San Salvador, El Salvador
| | | | - Maria Luisa Matute
- Departamento de Laboratorio Nacional de Vigilancia de la Salud, Tegucigalpa, Honduras
| | - Sandra Jackson-Betty
- National Influenza Centre-Jamaica, Department of Microbiology, University of West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica
| | - Kam Suan Mung
- PAHO/WHO Jamaica, National Influenza Centre-Jamaica, Department of Microbiology, University of West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica
| | - José Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez
- National Influenza Centre, Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos (InDRE), Ministry of Health, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Irma López-Martinez
- National Influenza Centre, Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos (InDRE), Ministry of Health, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Brechla Morneo Arévalo
- Depto. de Investigación en Virología Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas, Panamá City, Panamá
| | | | | | - Rebecca Garten
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
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