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Brizzi A, Whittaker C, Servo LMS, Hawryluk I, Prete CA, de Souza WM, Aguiar RS, Araujo LJT, Bastos LS, Blenkinsop A, Buss LF, Candido D, Castro MC, Costa SF, Croda J, de Souza Santos AA, Dye C, Flaxman S, Fonseca PLC, Geddes VEV, Gutierrez B, Lemey P, Levin AS, Mellan T, Bonfim DM, Miscouridou X, Mishra S, Monod M, Moreira FRR, Nelson B, Pereira RHM, Ranzani O, Schnekenberg RP, Semenova E, Sonabend R, Souza RP, Xi X, Sabino EC, Faria NR, Bhatt S, Ratmann O. Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals. Nat Med 2022; 28:1476-1485. [PMID: 35538260 PMCID: PMC9307484 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-01807-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2021] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant of concern has spread rapidly across Brazil since late 2020, causing substantial infection and death waves. Here we used individual-level patient records after hospitalization with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between 20 January 2020 and 26 July 2021 to document temporary, sweeping shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed the spread of Gamma across 14 state capitals, during which typically more than half of hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older died. We show that such extensive shocks in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed before the detection of Gamma. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we found that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates were primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We estimate that approximately half of the COVID-19 deaths in hospitals in the 14 cities could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population-wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Brizzi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Charles Whittaker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Iwona Hawryluk
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Carlos A Prete
- Departamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - William M de Souza
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses and Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston TX, USA
| | - Renato S Aguiar
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Instituto D'Or de Pesquisa e Ensino (IDOR), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Leonardo J T Araujo
- Laboratory of Quantitative Pathology, Center of Pathology, Adolfo Lutz Institute, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Leonardo S Bastos
- Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Lewis F Buss
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Marcia C Castro
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston MA, USA
| | - Silvia F Costa
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Julio Croda
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven CT, USA
| | | | | | - Seth Flaxman
- Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Paula L C Fonseca
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Victor E V Geddes
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Philippe Lemey
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Anna S Levin
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Thomas Mellan
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Diego M Bonfim
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Swapnil Mishra
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Section of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mélodie Monod
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Filipe R R Moreira
- Departamento de Genética, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Bruce Nelson
- Environmental Dynamics, INPA, National Institute for Amazon Research, Manaus, Brazil
| | | | - Otavio Ranzani
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | - Raphael Sonabend
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Renan P Souza
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Xiaoyue Xi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ester C Sabino
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
| | - Nuno R Faria
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Samir Bhatt
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
- Section of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | - Oliver Ratmann
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
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Brizzi A, Whittaker C, Servo LMS, Hawryluk I, Prete CA, de Souza WM, Aguiar RS, Araujo LJT, Bastos LS, Blenkinsop A, Buss LF, Candido D, Castro MC, Costa SF, Croda J, de Souza Santos AA, Dye C, Flaxman S, Fonseca PLC, Geddes VEV, Gutierrez B, Lemey P, Levin AS, Mellan T, Bonfim DM, Miscouridou X, Mishra S, Monod M, Moreira FRR, Nelson B, Pereira RHM, Ranzani O, Schnekenberg RP, Semenova E, Sonabend R, Souza RP, Xi X, Sabino EC, Faria NR, Bhatt S, Ratmann O. Author Correction: Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals. Nat Med 2022; 28:1509. [PMID: 35835884 PMCID: PMC9282140 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-01939-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Brizzi
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Charles Whittaker
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Luciana M. S. Servo
- grid.457041.30000 0001 2324 8955Institute for Applied Economic Research, IPEA, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Iwona Hawryluk
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Carlos A. Prete
- grid.11899.380000 0004 1937 0722Departamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - William M. de Souza
- grid.176731.50000 0001 1547 9964World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses and Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston TX, USA
| | - Renato S. Aguiar
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil ,grid.472984.4Instituto D’Or de Pesquisa e Ensino (IDOR), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Leonardo J. T. Araujo
- grid.414596.b0000 0004 0602 9808Laboratory of Quantitative Pathology, Center of Pathology, Adolfo Lutz Institute, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Leonardo S. Bastos
- grid.418068.30000 0001 0723 0931Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Alexandra Blenkinsop
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Lewis F. Buss
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.11899.380000 0004 1937 0722Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Darlan Candido
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Marcia C. Castro
- grid.38142.3c000000041936754XDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston MA, USA
| | - Silvia F. Costa
- grid.11899.380000 0004 1937 0722Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Julio Croda
- grid.47100.320000000419368710Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven CT, USA
| | | | - Christopher Dye
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Seth Flaxman
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Paula L. C. Fonseca
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Victor E. V. Geddes
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Bernardo Gutierrez
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Philippe Lemey
- grid.5596.f0000 0001 0668 7884Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven – University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Anna S. Levin
- grid.11899.380000 0004 1937 0722Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Thomas Mellan
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Diego M. Bonfim
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Xenia Miscouridou
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Swapnil Mishra
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.5254.60000 0001 0674 042XSection of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mélodie Monod
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Filipe R. R. Moreira
- grid.8536.80000 0001 2294 473XDepartamento de Genética, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Bruce Nelson
- grid.419220.c0000 0004 0427 0577Environmental Dynamics, INPA, National Institute for Amazon Research, Manaus, Brazil
| | - Rafael H. M. Pereira
- grid.457041.30000 0001 2324 8955Institute for Applied Economic Research, IPEA, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Otavio Ranzani
- grid.434607.20000 0004 1763 3517Barcelona Institute for Global Health, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ricardo P. Schnekenberg
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Elizaveta Semenova
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Raphael Sonabend
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Renan P. Souza
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Xiaoyue Xi
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ester C. Sabino
- grid.11899.380000 0004 1937 0722Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Nuno R. Faria
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.11899.380000 0004 1937 0722Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil ,grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Samir Bhatt
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.5254.60000 0001 0674 042XSection of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Oliver Ratmann
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
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3
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Brizzi A, Whittaker C, Servo LMS, Hawryluk I, Prete CA, de Souza WM, Aguiar RS, Araujo LJT, Bastos LS, Blenkinsop A, Buss LF, Candido D, Castro MC, Costa SF, Croda J, de Souza Santos AA, Dye C, Flaxman S, Fonseca PLC, Geddes VEV, Gutierrez B, Lemey P, Levin AS, Mellan T, Bonfim DM, Miscouridou X, Mishra S, Monod M, Moreira FRR, Nelson B, Pereira RHM, Ranzani O, Schnekenberg RP, Semenova E, Sonnabend R, Souza RP, Xi X, Sabino EC, Faria NR, Bhatt S, Ratmann O. Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals. medRxiv 2021:2021.11.01.21265731. [PMID: 34751273 PMCID: PMC8575144 DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.01.21265731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma's spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma's detection, and were largely transient after Gamma's detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. NOTE The following manuscript has appeared as 'Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals' at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Brizzi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Charles Whittaker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Iwona Hawryluk
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Carlos A Prete
- Departamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - William M de Souza
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses and Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
| | - Renato S Aguiar
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Instituto D'Or de Pesquisa e Ensino (IDOR), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Leonardo J T Araujo
- Laboratory of Quantitative Pathology, Center of Pathology, Adolfo Lutz Institute, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Leonardo S Bastos
- Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Lewis F Buss
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil
| | - Darlan Candido
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Marcia C Castro
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
| | - Silvia F Costa
- Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias e Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil
| | - Julio Croda
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, United States
| | | | - Christopher Dye
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Seth Flaxman
- Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Paula L C Fonseca
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Victor E V Geddes
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Philippe Lemey
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Anna S Levin
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas Mellan
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Diego M Bonfim
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Xenia Miscouridou
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Swapnil Mishra
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- Section of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, Copenhagen
| | - Mélodie Monod
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Filipe R R Moreira
- Departamento de Genética, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Bruce Nelson
- Environmental Dynamics, INPA, National Institute for Amazon Research, Bairro Petropolis, Brazil
| | | | - Otavio Ranzani
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ricardo P Schnekenberg
- Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Elizaveta Semenova
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Raphael Sonnabend
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
| | - Renan P Souza
- Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Xiaoyue Xi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ester C Sabino
- Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Nuno R Faria
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Samir Bhatt
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
- Section of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Copenhagen
| | - Oliver Ratmann
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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