Addition of inflammation-related biomarkers to the CAIDE model for risk prediction of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia in a prospective study

BACKGROUND

It is of interest whether inflammatory biomarkers can improve dementia prediction models, such as the widely used Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) model.

METHODS

The Olink Target 96 Inflammation panel was assessed in a nested case-cohort design within a large, population-based German cohort study (n = 9940; age-range: 50-75 years). All study participants who developed dementia over 20 years of follow-up and had complete CAIDE variable data (n = 562, including 173 Alzheimer's disease (AD) and 199 vascular dementia (VD) cases) as well as n = 1,356 controls were selected for measurements. 69 inflammation-related biomarkers were eligible for use. LASSO logistic regression and bootstrapping were utilized to select relevant biomarkers and determine areas under the curve (AUCs).

RESULTS

The CAIDE model 2 (including Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 carrier status) predicted all-cause dementia, AD, and VD better than CAIDE model 1 (without APOE ε4) with AUCs of 0.725, 0.752 and 0.707, respectively. Although 20, 7, and 4 inflammation-related biomarkers were selected by LASSO regression to improve CAIDE model 2, the AUCs did not increase markedly. CAIDE models 1 and 2 generally performed better in mid-life (50-64 years) than in late-life (65-75 years) sub-samples of our cohort, but again, inflammation-related biomarkers did not improve their predictive abilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a lack of improvement in dementia risk prediction, the selected inflammation-related biomarkers were significantly associated with dementia outcomes and may serve as a starting point to further elucidate the pathogenesis of dementia.

Metrics reloaded: recommendations for image analysis validation

Increasing evidence shows that flaws in machine learning (ML) algorithm validation are an underestimated global problem. In biomedical image analysis, chosen performance metrics often do not reflect the domain interest, and thus fail to adequately measure scientific progress and hinder translation of ML techniques into practice. To overcome this, we created Metrics Reloaded, a comprehensive framework guiding researchers in the problem-aware selection of metrics. Developed by a large international consortium in a multistage Delphi process, it is based on the novel concept of a problem fingerprint-a structured representation of the given problem that captures all aspects that are relevant for metric selection, from the domain interest to the properties of the target structure(s), dataset and algorithm output. On the basis of the problem fingerprint, users are guided through the process of choosing and applying appropriate validation metrics while being made aware of potential pitfalls. Metrics Reloaded targets image analysis problems that can be interpreted as classification tasks at image, object or pixel level, namely image-level classification, object detection, semantic segmentation and instance segmentation tasks. To improve the user experience, we implemented the framework in the Metrics Reloaded online tool. Following the convergence of ML methodology across application domains, Metrics Reloaded fosters the convergence of validation methodology. Its applicability is demonstrated for various biomedical use cases.

Simulating and reporting frequentist operating characteristics of clinical trials that borrow external information: Towards a fair comparison in case of one-arm and hybrid control two-arm trials

Borrowing information from historical or external data to inform inference in a current trial is an expanding field in the era of precision medicine, where trials are often performed in small patient cohorts for practical or ethical reasons. Even though methods proposed for borrowing from external data are mainly based on Bayesian approaches that incorporate external information into the prior for the current analysis, frequentist operating characteristics of the analysis strategy are often of interest. In particular, type I error rate and power at a prespecified point alternative are the focus. We propose a procedure to investigate and report the frequentist operating characteristics in this context. The approach evaluates type I error rate of the test with borrowing from external data and calibrates the test without borrowing to this type I error rate. On this basis, a fair comparison of power between the test with and without borrowing is achieved. We show that no power gains are possible in one-sided one-arm and two-arm hybrid control trials with normal endpoint, a finding proven in general before. We prove that in one-arm fixed-borrowing situations, unconditional power (i.e., when external data is random) is reduced. The Empirical Bayes power prior approach that dynamically borrows information according to the similarity of current and external data avoids the exorbitant type I error inflation occurring with fixed borrowing. In the hybrid control two-arm trial we observe power reductions as compared to the test calibrated to borrowing that increase when considering unconditional power.

Robust incorporation of historical information with known type I error rate inflation

Bayesian clinical trials can benefit from available historical information through the specification of informative prior distributions. Concerns are however often raised about the potential for prior-data conflict and the impact of Bayes test decisions on frequentist operating characteristics, with particular attention being assigned to inflation of type I error (TIE) rates. This motivates the development of principled borrowing mechanisms, that strike a balance between frequentist and Bayesian decisions. Ideally, the trust assigned to historical information defines the degree of robustness to prior-data conflict one is willing to sacrifice. However, such relationship is often not directly available when explicitly considering inflation of TIE rates. We build on available literature relating frequentist and Bayesian test decisions, and investigate a rationale for inflation of TIE rate which explicitly and linearly relates the amount of borrowing and the amount of TIE rate inflation in one-arm studies. A novel dynamic borrowing mechanism tailored to hypothesis testing is additionally proposed. We show that, while dynamic borrowing prevents the possibility to obtain a simple closed-form TIE rate computation, an explicit upper bound can still be enforced. Connections with the robust mixture prior approach, particularly in relation to the choice of the mixture weight and robust component, are made. Simulations are performed to show the properties of the approach for normal and binomial outcomes, and an exemplary application is demonstrated in a case study.

Spectral imaging enables contrast agent-free real-time ischemia monitoring in laparoscopic surgery

Laparoscopic surgery has evolved as a key technique for cancer diagnosis and therapy. While characterization of the tissue perfusion is crucial in various procedures, such as partial nephrectomy, doing so by means of visual inspection remains highly challenging. We developed a laparoscopic real-time multispectral imaging system featuring a compact and lightweight multispectral camera and the possibility to complement the conventional surgical view of the patient with functional information at a video rate of 25 Hz. To enable contrast agent-free ischemia monitoring during laparoscopic partial nephrectomy, we phrase the problem of ischemia detection as an out-of-distribution detection problem that does not rely on data from any other patient and uses an ensemble of invertible neural networks at its core. An in-human trial demonstrates the feasibility of our approach and highlights the potential of spectral imaging combined with advanced deep learning-based analysis tools for fast, efficient, reliable, and safe functional laparoscopic imaging.

Beyond rankings: Learning (more) from algorithm validation

Challenges have become the state-of-the-art approach to benchmark image analysis algorithms in a comparative manner. While the validation on identical data sets was a great step forward, results analysis is often restricted to pure ranking tables, leaving relevant questions unanswered. Specifically, little effort has been put into the systematic investigation on what characterizes images in which state-of-the-art algorithms fail. To address this gap in the literature, we (1) present a statistical framework for learning from challenges and (2) instantiate it for the specific task of instrument instance segmentation in laparoscopic videos. Our framework relies on the semantic meta data annotation of images, which serves as foundation for a General Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) analysis. Based on 51,542 meta data annotations performed on 2,728 images, we applied our approach to the results of the Robust Medical Instrument Segmentation Challenge (ROBUST-MIS) challenge 2019 and revealed underexposure, motion and occlusion of instruments as well as the presence of smoke or other objects in the background as major sources of algorithm failure. Our subsequent method development, tailored to the specific remaining issues, yielded a deep learning model with state-of-the-art overall performance and specific strengths in the processing of images in which previous methods tended to fail. Due to the objectivity and generic applicability of our approach, it could become a valuable tool for validation in the field of medical image analysis and beyond.

Bovine meat and milk factor protein expression in tumor-free mucosa of colorectal cancer patients coincides with macrophages and might interfere with patient survival

Bovine milk and meat factors (BMMFs) are plasmid-like DNA molecules isolated from bovine milk and serum, as well as the peritumor of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. BMMFs have been proposed as zoonotic infectious agents and drivers of indirect carcinogenesis of CRC, inducing chronic tissue inflammation, radical formation and increased levels of DNA damage. Data on expression of BMMFs in large clinical cohorts to test an association with co-markers and clinical parameters were not previously available and were therefore assessed in this study. Tissue sections with paired tumor-adjacent mucosa and tumor tissues of CRC patients [individual cohorts and tissue microarrays (TMAs) (n = 246)], low-/high-grade dysplasia (LGD/HGD) and mucosa of healthy donors were used for immunohistochemical quantification of the expression of BMMF replication protein (Rep) and CD68/CD163 (macrophages) by co-immunofluorescence microscopy and immunohistochemical scoring (TMA). Rep was expressed in the tumor-adjacent mucosa of 99% of CRC patients (TMA), was histologically associated with CD68+ /CD163+ macrophages and was increased in CRC patients when compared to healthy controls. Tumor tissues showed only low stromal Rep expression. Rep was expressed in LGD and less in HGD but was strongly expressed in LGD/HGD-adjacent tissues. Albeit not reaching statistical significance, incidence curves for CRC-specific death were increased for higher Rep expression (TMA), with high tumor-adjacent Rep expression being linked to the highest incidence of death. BMMF Rep expression might represent a marker and early risk factor for CRC. The correlation between Rep and CD68 expression supports a previous hypothesis that BMMF-specific inflammatory regulations, including macrophages, are involved in the pathogenesis of CRC.

Detection of Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer Using Targeted Biopsy with Four Cores Versus Target Saturation Biopsy with Nine Cores in Transperineal Prostate Fusion Biopsy: A Prospective Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and targeted biopsy (TB) facilitate accurate detection of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPC). However, it remains unclear how targeted cores should be applied for accurate diagnosis of csPC.

OBJECTIVE

To assess csPC detection rates for two target-directed MRI/transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS) fusion biopsy approaches, conventional TB and target saturation biopsy (TS).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a prospective single-center study of outcomes for transperineal MRI/TRUS fusion biopsies for 170 men. Half of the men (n = 85) were randomized to conventional TB with four cores per lesion and half (n = 85) to TS with nine cores. Biopsies were performed by three experienced board-certified urologists.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

PC and csPC (International Society of Urological Pathology grade group ≥2) detection rates for systematic biopsy (SB), TB, and TS were analyzed using McNemar's test for intrapatient comparisons and Fisher's exact test for TS versus TB. A combination of targeted biopsy (TS or TB) and SB served as the reference.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

According to the reference, csPC was diagnosed for 57 men in the TS group and 36 men in the TB group. Of these, TS detected 57/57 csPC cases and TB detected 33/36 csPC cases (p = 0.058). Detection of Gleason grade group 1 disease was 10/12 cases with TS and 8/17 cases with TB (p = 0.055). In addition, TS detected 97% of 63 csPC lesions, compared to 86% with TB (p = 0.1). Limitations include the single-center design, the limited generalizability owing to the transperineal biopsy route, the lack of central review of pathology and radical prostatectomy correlation, and uneven distributions of csPC prevalence, Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 5 lesions, men with two or more PI-RADS ≥3 lesions, and prostate-specific antigen density between the groups, which may have affected the results.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, rates of csPC detection did not significantly differ between TS and TB.

PATIENT SUMMARY

In this study, we investigated two targeted approaches for taking prostate biopsy samples after observation of suspicious lesions on prostate scans. We found that the rates of detection of prostate cancer did not significantly differ between the two approaches.

The Medical Segmentation Decathlon

International challenges have become the de facto standard for comparative assessment of image analysis algorithms. Although segmentation is the most widely investigated medical image processing task, the various challenges have been organized to focus only on specific clinical tasks. We organized the Medical Segmentation Decathlon (MSD)-a biomedical image analysis challenge, in which algorithms compete in a multitude of both tasks and modalities to investigate the hypothesis that a method capable of performing well on multiple tasks will generalize well to a previously unseen task and potentially outperform a custom-designed solution. MSD results confirmed this hypothesis, moreover, MSD winner continued generalizing well to a wide range of other clinical problems for the next two years. Three main conclusions can be drawn from this study: (1) state-of-the-art image segmentation algorithms generalize well when retrained on unseen tasks; (2) consistent algorithmic performance across multiple tasks is a strong surrogate of algorithmic generalizability; (3) the training of accurate AI segmentation models is now commoditized to scientists that are not versed in AI model training.

On the feasibility of pediatric dose-finding trials in small samples with information from a preceding trial in adults

We consider the case of pediatric dose-finding trials with extremely limited sample size. The operating characteristics of the standard design, the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM), are only well described for sample sizes of about 20 patients or more. In this simulation study, we assume the situation of a pediatric trial with only 10 patients and a preceding dose-finding trial in adults. Based on the adult data, we reduce the set of pediatric doses and formulate (partially) informative prior distributions for the pediatric trial. Our simulations show that such small pediatric dose-finding trials with robustified priors may provide sufficient operating characteristics.

Improvement of PI-RADS-dependent prostate cancer classification by quantitative image assessment using radiomics or mean ADC

Background Currently, interpretation of prostate MRI is performed qualitatively. Quantitative assessment of the mean apparent diffusion coefficient (mADC) is promising to improve diagnostic accuracy while radiomic machine learning (RML) allows to probe complex parameter spaces to identify the most promising multi-parametric models. We have previously developed quantitative RML and ADC classifiers for prediction of clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC) from prostate MRI, however these have not been combined with radiologist PI-RADS assessment. Purpose To propose and evaluate diagnostic algorithms combining quantitative ADC or RML and qualitative PI-RADS assessment for prediction of sPC. Methods and population The previously published quantitative models (RML and mADC) were utilized to construct four algorithms: 1) Down(ADC) and 2) Down(RML): clinically detected PI-RADS positive prostate lesions (defined as either PI-RADS≥3 or ≥4) were downgraded to MRI negative upon negative quantitative assessment; and 3) Up(ADC) and 4) Up(RML): MRI-negative lesions were upgraded to MRI-positive upon positive assessment of quantitative parameters. Analyses were performed at the individual lesion level and the patient level in 133 consecutive patients with suspicion for clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC, International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grade group≥2), the test set subcohort of a previously published patient population. McNemar test was used to compare differences in sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Differences between lesions of different prostate zones were assessed using ANOVA. Reduction in false positive assessments was assessed as ratios. Results Compared to clinical assessment at the PI-RADS≥4 cut-off alone, algorithms Down(ADC/RML) improved specificity from 43% to 65% (p = 0.001)/62% (p = 0.003), while sensitivity did not change significantly at 89% compared to 87% (p = 1.0)/89% (unchanged) on the patient level. Reduction of false positive lesions was 50% [26/52] in the PZ and 53% [15/28] in the TZ. Algorithms Up(ADC/RML) led, on a patient basis, to an unfavorable loss of specificity from 43% to 30% (p = 0.039)/32% (p = 0.106), with insignificant increase of sensitivity from 89% to 96%/96% (both p = 1.0). Compared to clinical assessment at the PI-RADS≥3 cut-off alone, similar results were observed for Down(ADC) with significantly increased specificity from 2% to 23% (p < 0.001) and unchanged sensitivity on the lesion level; patient level specificity increased only non-significantly. Conclusion Downgrading PI-RADS≥3 and ≥ 4 lesions based on quantitative mADC measurements or RML classifiers can increase diagnostic accuracy by enhancing specificity and preserving sensitivity for detection of sPC and reduce false positives.

Methods and open-source toolkit for analyzing and visualizing challenge results

Grand challenges have become the de facto standard for benchmarking image analysis algorithms. While the number of these international competitions is steadily increasing, surprisingly little effort has been invested in ensuring high quality design, execution and reporting for these international competitions. Specifically, results analysis and visualization in the event of uncertainties have been given almost no attention in the literature. Given these shortcomings, the contribution of this paper is two-fold: (1) we present a set of methods to comprehensively analyze and visualize the results of single-task and multi-task challenges and apply them to a number of simulated and real-life challenges to demonstrate their specific strengths and weaknesses; (2) we release the open-source framework challengeR as part of this work to enable fast and wide adoption of the methodology proposed in this paper. Our approach offers an intuitive way to gain important insights into the relative and absolute performance of algorithms, which cannot be revealed by commonly applied visualization techniques. This is demonstrated by the experiments performed in the specific context of biomedical image analysis challenges. Our framework could thus become an important tool for analyzing and visualizing challenge results in the field of biomedical image analysis and beyond.

Comparative validation of multi-instance instrument segmentation in endoscopy: Results of the ROBUST-MIS 2019 challenge

Intraoperative tracking of laparoscopic instruments is often a prerequisite for computer and robotic-assisted interventions. While numerous methods for detecting, segmenting and tracking of medical instruments based on endoscopic video images have been proposed in the literature, key limitations remain to be addressed: Firstly, robustness, that is, the reliable performance of state-of-the-art methods when run on challenging images (e.g. in the presence of blood, smoke or motion artifacts). Secondly, generalization; algorithms trained for a specific intervention in a specific hospital should generalize to other interventions or institutions. In an effort to promote solutions for these limitations, we organized the Robust Medical Instrument Segmentation (ROBUST-MIS) challenge as an international benchmarking competition with a specific focus on the robustness and generalization capabilities of algorithms. For the first time in the field of endoscopic image processing, our challenge included a task on binary segmentation and also addressed multi-instance detection and segmentation. The challenge was based on a surgical data set comprising 10,040 annotated images acquired from a total of 30 surgical procedures from three different types of surgery. The validation of the competing methods for the three tasks (binary segmentation, multi-instance detection and multi-instance segmentation) was performed in three different stages with an increasing domain gap between the training and the test data. The results confirm the initial hypothesis, namely that algorithm performance degrades with an increasing domain gap. While the average detection and segmentation quality of the best-performing algorithms is high, future research should concentrate on detection and segmentation of small, crossing, moving and transparent instrument(s) (parts).

Three-dimensional Magnetic Resonance Imaging-based Printed Models of Prostate Anatomy and Targeted Biopsy-proven Index Tumor to Facilitate Patient-tailored Radical Prostatectomy-A Feasibility Study

In this prospective single-center feasibility study, we demonstrate that the use of three-dimensional (3D)-printed prostate models support nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy (RP) and intraoperative frozen sectioning (IFS) in ten men suffering from intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC), of whom seven harbored pT3 disease. Patient-specific 3D resin models were printed based on preoperative multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) to provide an exact 3D impression of significant tumor lesions. RP and IFS were planned in a patient-tailored fashion. The 36-region Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) v2.0 scheme was used to compare the MRI/3D print with whole-mount histopathology. In all cases, localization of the index lesion was correctly displayed by MRI and the 3D model. Localization of significant PC lesions correlated significantly (Pearson`s correlation coefficient of 0.88; p <  0.001). In addition, a significant correlation of the width, length, and volume of the tumor and prostate gland, derived from the printed model and histopathology, was found, using Pearson's correlation analyses and Bland-Altman plots. In conclusion, 3D-printed prostate models correlate well with final pathology and can be used to tailor RP. PATIENT SUMMARY: The use of three-dimensional (3D)-printed prostate models based on preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may improve prostatectomy outcome. This study confirmed the accuracy of 3D-printed prostates compared with pathology from radical prostatectomy specimens. Thus, MRI-derived 3D-printed prostate models can assist in prostate cancer surgery.

Simulated clinical deployment of fully automatic deep learning for clinical prostate MRI assessment

Objectives

To simulate clinical deployment, evaluate performance, and establish quality assurance of a deep learning algorithm (U-Net) for detection, localization, and segmentation of clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC), ISUP grade group ≥ 2, using bi-parametric MRI.

Methods

In 2017, 284 consecutive men in active surveillance, biopsy-naïve or pre-biopsied, received targeted and extended systematic MRI/transrectal US-fusion biopsy, after examination on a single MRI scanner (3 T). A prospective adjustment scheme was evaluated comparing the performance of the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) and U-Net using sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and the Dice coefficient.

Results

In the 259 eligible men (median 64 [IQR 61–72] years), PI-RADS had a sensitivity of 98% [106/108]/84% [91/108] with a specificity of 17% [25/151]/58% [88/151], for thresholds at ≥ 3/≥ 4 respectively. U-Net using dynamic threshold adjustment had a sensitivity of 99% [107/108]/83% [90/108] (p > 0.99/> 0.99) with a specificity of 24% [36/151]/55% [83/151] (p > 0.99/> 0.99) for probability thresholds d3 and d4 emulating PI-RADS ≥ 3 and ≥ 4 decisions respectively, not statistically different from PI-RADS. Co-occurrence of a radiological PI-RADS ≥ 4 examination and U-Net ≥ d3 assessment significantly improved the positive predictive value from 59 to 63% (p = 0.03), on a per-patient basis.

Conclusions

U-Net has similar performance to PI-RADS in simulated continued clinical use. Regular quality assurance should be implemented to ensure desired performance.

Key Points

• U-Net maintained similar diagnostic performance compared to radiological assessment of PI-RADS ≥ 4 when applied in a simulated clinical deployment.

• Application of our proposed prospective dynamic calibration method successfully adjusted U-Net performance within acceptable limits of the PI-RADS reference over time, while not being limited to PI-RADS as a reference.

• Simultaneous detection by U-Net and radiological assessment significantly improved the positive predictive value on a per-patient and per-lesion basis, while the negative predictive value remained unchanged.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00330-020-07086-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A decision-theoretic approach to Bayesian clinical trial design and evaluation of robustness to prior-data conflict

Bayesian clinical trials allow taking advantage of relevant external information through the elicitation of prior distributions, which influence Bayesian posterior parameter estimates and test decisions. However, incorporation of historical information can have harmful consequences on the trial’s frequentist (conditional) operating characteristics in case of inconsistency between prior information and the newly collected data. A compromise between meaningful incorporation of historical information and strict control of frequentist error rates is therefore often sought. Our aim is thus to review and investigate the rationale and consequences of different approaches to relaxing strict frequentist control of error rates from a Bayesian decision-theoretic viewpoint. In particular, we define an integrated risk which incorporates losses arising from testing, estimation, and sampling. A weighted combination of the integrated risk addends arising from testing and estimation allows moving smoothly between these two targets. Furthermore, we explore different possible elicitations of the test error costs, leading to test decisions based either on posterior probabilities, or solely on Bayes factors. Sensitivity analyses are performed following the convention which makes a distinction between the prior of the data-generating process, and the analysis prior adopted to fit the data. Simulation in the case of normal and binomial outcomes and an application to a one-arm proof-of-concept trial, exemplify how such analysis can be conducted to explore sensitivity of the integrated risk, the operating characteristics, and the optimal sample size, to prior-data conflict. Robust analysis prior specifications, which gradually discount potentially conflicting prior information, are also included for comparison. Guidance with respect to cost elicitation, particularly in the context of a Phase II proof-of-concept trial, is provided.

Detection of Significant Prostate Cancer Using Target Saturation in Transperineal Magnetic Resonance Imaging/Transrectal Ultrasonography-fusion Biopsy

BACKGROUND

Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and targeted biopsies (TBs) facilitate accurate detection of significant prostate cancer (sPC). However, it remains unclear how many cores should be applied per target.

OBJECTIVE

To assess sPC detection rates of two different target-dependent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)/transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS)-fusion biopsy approaches (TB and target saturation [TS]) compared with extended systematic biopsies (SBs).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective single-centre outcome of transperineal MRI/TRUS-fusion biopsies of 213 men was evaluated. All men underwent TB with a median of four cores per MRI lesion, followed by a median of 24 SBs, performed by experienced urologists. Cancer and sPC (International Society of Urological Pathology grade group ≥2) detection rates were analysed. TB was compared with SB and TS, with nine cores per target, calculated by the Ginsburg scheme and using individual cores of the lesion and its "penumbra".

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Cancer detection rates were calculated for TS, TB, and SB at both lesion and patient level. Combination of SB + TB served as a reference. Statistical differences in prostate cancer (PC) detection between groups were calculated using McNemar's tests with confidence intervals.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

TS detected 99% of 134 sPC lesions, which was significantly higher than the detection by TB (87%, p = 0.001) and SB (82%, p < 0.001). SB detected significantly more of the 72 low-risk PC lesions than TB (99% vs 68%, p < 0.001) and 10% (p = 0.15) more than that detected by TS. At a per-patient level, 99% of men harbouring sPC were detected by TS. This was significantly higher than that by TB and SB (89%, p = 0.03 and 81%, p = 0.001, respectively). Limitations include limited generalisability, as a transperineal biopsy route was used.

CONCLUSIONS

TS detected significantly more cases of sPC than TB and extended SB. Given that both 99% of sPC lesions and men harbouring sPC were identified by TS, the results suggest that this approach allows to omit SB cores without compromising sPC detection.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Target saturation of magnetic resonance imaging-suspicious prostate lesions provides excellent cancer detection and finds fewer low-risk tumours than the current gold standard combination of targeted and systematic biopsies.

Power gains by using external information in clinical trials are typically not possible when requiring strict type I error control

In the era of precision medicine, novel designs are developed to deal with flexible clinical trials that incorporate many treatment strategies for multiple diseases in one trial setting. This situation often leads to small sample sizes in disease-treatment combinations and has fostered the discussion about the benefits of borrowing of external or historical information for decision-making in these trials. Several methods have been proposed that dynamically discount the amount of information borrowed from historical data based on the conformity between historical and current data. Specifically, Bayesian methods have been recommended and numerous investigations have been performed to characterize the properties of the various borrowing mechanisms with respect to the gain to be expected in the trials. However, there is common understanding that the risk of type I error inflation exists when information is borrowed and many simulation studies are carried out to quantify this effect. To add transparency to the debate, we show that if prior information is conditioned upon and a uniformly most powerful test exists, strict control of type I error implies that no power gain is possible under any mechanism of incorporation of prior information, including dynamic borrowing. The basis of the argument is to consider the test decision function as a function of the current data even when external information is included. We exemplify this finding in the case of a pediatric arm appended to an adult trial and dichotomous outcome for various methods of dynamic borrowing from adult information to the pediatric arm. In conclusion, if use of relevant external data is desired, the requirement of strict type I error control has to be replaced by more appropriate metrics.

Classification of Cancer at Prostate MRI: Deep Learning versus Clinical PI-RADS Assessment

Background Men suspected of having clinically significant prostate cancer (sPC) increasingly undergo prostate MRI. The potential of deep learning to provide diagnostic support for human interpretation requires further evaluation. Purpose To compare the performance of clinical assessment to a deep learning system optimized for segmentation trained with T2-weighted and diffusion MRI in the task of detection and segmentation of lesions suspicious for sPC. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, T2-weighted and diffusion prostate MRI sequences from consecutive men examined with a single 3.0-T MRI system between 2015 and 2016 were manually segmented. Ground truth was provided by combined targeted and extended systematic MRI-transrectal US fusion biopsy, with sPC defined as International Society of Urological Pathology Gleason grade group greater than or equal to 2. By using split-sample validation, U-Net was internally validated on the training set (80% of the data) through cross validation and subsequently externally validated on the test set (20% of the data). U-Net-derived sPC probability maps were calibrated by matching sextant-based cross-validation performance to clinical performance of Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS). Performance of PI-RADS and U-Net were compared by using sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and Dice coefficient. Results A total of 312 men (median age, 64 years; interquartile range [IQR], 58-71 years) were evaluated. The training set consisted of 250 men (median age, 64 years; IQR, 58-71 years) and the test set of 62 men (median age, 64 years; IQR, 60-69 years). In the test set, PI-RADS cutoffs greater than or equal to 3 versus cutoffs greater than or equal to 4 on a per-patient basis had sensitivity of 96% (25 of 26) versus 88% (23 of 26) at specificity of 22% (eight of 36) versus 50% (18 of 36). U-Net at probability thresholds of greater than or equal to 0.22 versus greater than or equal to 0.33 had sensitivity of 96% (25 of 26) versus 92% (24 of 26) (both P > .99) with specificity of 31% (11 of 36) versus 47% (17 of 36) (both P > .99), not statistically different from PI-RADS. Dice coefficients were 0.89 for prostate and 0.35 for MRI lesion segmentation. In the test set, coincidence of PI-RADS greater than or equal to 4 with U-Net lesions improved the positive predictive value from 48% (28 of 58) to 67% (24 of 36) for U-Net probability thresholds greater than or equal to 0.33 (P = .01), while the negative predictive value remained unchanged (83% [25 of 30] vs 83% [43 of 52]; P > .99). Conclusion U-Net trained with T2-weighted and diffusion MRI achieves similar performance to clinical Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System assessment. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Padhani and Turkbey in this issue.

Quantification of prior impact in terms of effective current sample size

Bayesian methods allow borrowing of historical information through prior distributions. The concept of prior effective sample size (prior ESS) facilitates quantification and communication of such prior information by equating it to a sample size. Prior information can arise from historical observations; thus, the traditional approach identifies the ESS with such a historical sample size. However, this measure is independent of newly observed data, and thus would not capture an actual "loss of information" induced by the prior in case of prior-data conflict. We build on a recent work to relate prior impact to the number of (virtual) samples from the current data model and introduce the effective current sample size (ECSS) of a prior, tailored to the application in Bayesian clinical trial designs. Special emphasis is put on robust mixture, power, and commensurate priors. We apply the approach to an adaptive design in which the number of recruited patients is adjusted depending on the effective sample size at an interim analysis. We argue that the ECSS is the appropriate measure in this case, as the aim is to save current (as opposed to historical) patients from recruitment. Furthermore, the ECSS can help overcome lack of consensus in the ESS assessment of mixture priors and can, more broadly, provide further insights into the impact of priors. An R package accompanies the paper.

Prediction of significant prostate cancer in biopsy-naïve men: Validation of a novel risk model combining MRI and clinical parameters and comparison to an ERSPC risk calculator and PI-RADS

BACKGROUND

Risk models (RM) need external validation to assess their value beyond the setting in which they were developed. We validated a RM combining mpMRI and clinical parameters for the probability of harboring significant prostate cancer (sPC, Gleason Score ≥ 3+4) for biopsy-naïve men.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The original RM was based on data of 670 biopsy-naïve men from Heidelberg University Hospital who underwent mpMRI with PI-RADS scoring prior to MRI/TRUS-fusion biopsy 2012-2015. Validity was tested by a consecutive cohort of biopsy-naïve men from Heidelberg (n = 160) and externally by a cohort of 133 men from University College London Hospital (UCLH). Assessment of validity was performed at fusion-biopsy by calibration plots, receiver operating characteristics curve and decision curve analyses. The RM`s performance was compared to ERSPC-RC3, ERSPC-RC3+PI-RADSv1.0 and PI-RADSv1.0 alone.

RESULTS

SPC was detected in 76 men (48%) at Heidelberg and 38 men (29%) at UCLH. The areas under the curve (AUC) were 0.86 for the RM in both cohorts. For ERSPC-RC3+PI-RADSv1.0 the AUC was 0.84 in Heidelberg and 0.82 at UCLH, for ERSPC-RC3 0.76 at Heidelberg and 0.77 at UCLH and for PI-RADSv1.0 0.79 in Heidelberg and 0.82 at UCLH. Calibration curves suggest that prevalence of sPC needs to be adjusted to local circumstances, as the RM overestimated the risk of harboring sPC in the UCLH cohort. After prevalence-adjustment with respect to the prevalence underlying ERSPC-RC3 to ensure a generalizable comparison, not only between the Heidelberg and die UCLH subgroup, the RM`s Net benefit was superior over the ERSPC`s and the mpMRI`s for threshold probabilities above 0.1 in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The RM discriminated well between men with and without sPC at initial MRI-targeted biopsy but overestimated the sPC-risk at UCLH. Taking prevalence into account, the model demonstrated benefit compared with clinical risk calculators and PI-RADSv1.0 in making the decision to biopsy men at suspicion of PC. However, prevalence differences must be taken into account when using or validating the presented risk model.

Combined Clinical Parameters and Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging for the Prediction of Extraprostatic Disease-A Risk Model for Patient-tailored Risk Stratification When Planning Radical Prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) facilitates the detection of significant prostate cancer. Therefore, addition of mpMRI to clinical parameters might improve the prediction of extraprostatic extension (EPE) in radical prostatectomy (RP) specimens.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the accuracy of a novel risk model (RM) combining clinical and mpMRI parameters to predict EPE in RP specimens.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We added prebiopsy mpMRI to clinical parameters and developed an RM to predict individual side-specific EPE (EPE-RM). Clinical parameters of 264 consecutive men with mpMRI prior to MRI/transrectal ultrasound fusion biopsy and subsequent RP between 2012 and 2015 were retrospectively analysed.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Multivariate regression analyses were used to determine significant EPE predictors for RM development. The prediction performance of the novel EPE-RM was compared with clinical T stage (cT), MR-European Society of Urogenital Radiology (ESUR) classification for EPE, two established nomograms (by Steuber et al and Ohori et al) and a clinical nomogram based on the coefficients of the established nomograms, and was constructed based on the data of the present cohort, using receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). For comparison, models' likelihood ratio (LR) tests and Vuong tests were used. Discrimination and calibration of the EPE-RM were validated based on resampling methods using bootstrapping.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

International society of Urogenital Pathology grade on biopsy, ESUR criteria, prostate-specific antigen, cT, prostate volume, and capsule contact length were included in the EPE-RM. Calibration of the EPE-RM was good (error 0.018). The ROC area under the curve for the EPE-RM was larger (0.87) compared with cT (0.66), Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram (0.73), Steuber nomogram (0.70), novel clinical nomogram (0.79), and ESUR classification (0.81). Based on LR and Vuong tests, the EPE-RM's model fit was significantly better than that of cT, all clinical models, and ESUR classification alone (p<0.001). Limitations include monocentric design and expert reading of MRI.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel EPE-RM, incorporating clinical and MRI parameters, performed better than contemporary clinical RMs and MRI predictors, therefore providing an accurate patient-tailored preoperative risk stratification of side-specific EPE.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Extraprostatic extension of prostate cancer can be predicted accurately using a combination of magnetic resonance imaging and clinical parameters. This novel risk model outperforms magnetic resonance imaging and clinical predictors alone and can be useful when planning nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy.

Correlation between genomic index lesions and mpMRI and 68Ga-PSMA-PET/CT imaging features in primary prostate cancer

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA)- positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT)-imaging of prostate cancer (PCa) are emerging techniques to assess the presence of significant disease and tumor progression. It is not known, however, whether and to what extent lesions detected by these imaging techniques correlate with genomic features of PCa. The aim of this study was therefore to define a genomic index lesion based on chromosomal copy number alterations (CNAs) as marker for tumor aggressiveness in prostate biopsies in direct correlation to multiparametric (mp) MRI and ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-PET/CT imaging features. CNA profiles of 46 biopsies from five consecutive patients with clinically high-risk PCa were obtained from radiologically suspicious and unsuspicious areas. All patients underwent mpMRI, MRI/TRUS-fusion biopsy, ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-PET/CT and a radical prostatectomy. CNAs were directly correlated to imaging features and radiogenomic analyses were performed. Highly significant CNAs (≥10 Mbp) were found in 22 of 46 biopsies. Chromosome 8p, 13q and 5q losses were the most common findings. There was an strong correspondence between the radiologic and the genomic index lesions. The radiogenomic analyses suggest the feasibility of developing radiologic signatures that can distinguish between genomically more or less aggressive lesions. In conclusion, imaging features of mpMRI and ⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-PET/CT can guide to the genomically most aggressive lesion of a PCa. Radiogenomics may help to better differentiate between indolent and aggressive PCa in the future.

Monitoring futility and efficacy in phase II trials with Bayesian posterior distributions-A calibration approach

A multistage single arm phase II trial with binary endpoint is considered. Bayesian posterior probabilities are used to monitor futility in interim analyses and efficacy in the final analysis. For a beta-binomial model, decision rules based on Bayesian posterior probabilities are converted to "traditional" decision rules in terms of number of responders among patients observed so far. Analytical derivations are given for the probability of stopping for futility and for the probability to declare efficacy. A workflow is presented on how to select the parameters specifying the Bayesian design, and the operating characteristics of the design are investigated. It is outlined how the presented approach can be transferred to statistical models other than the beta-binomial model.

Exploiting the potential of unlabeled endoscopic video data with self-supervised learning

PURPOSE

Surgical data science is a new research field that aims to observe all aspects of the patient treatment process in order to provide the right assistance at the right time. Due to the breakthrough successes of deep learning-based solutions for automatic image annotation, the availability of reference annotations for algorithm training is becoming a major bottleneck in the field. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the concept of self-supervised learning to address this issue.

METHODS

Our approach is guided by the hypothesis that unlabeled video data can be used to learn a representation of the target domain that boosts the performance of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms when used for pre-training. Core of the method is an auxiliary task based on raw endoscopic video data of the target domain that is used to initialize the convolutional neural network (CNN) for the target task. In this paper, we propose the re-colorization of medical images with a conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN)-based architecture as auxiliary task. A variant of the method involves a second pre-training step based on labeled data for the target task from a related domain. We validate both variants using medical instrument segmentation as target task.

RESULTS

The proposed approach can be used to radically reduce the manual annotation effort involved in training CNNs. Compared to the baseline approach of generating annotated data from scratch, our method decreases exploratively the number of labeled images by up to 75% without sacrificing performance. Our method also outperforms alternative methods for CNN pre-training, such as pre-training on publicly available non-medical (COCO) or medical data (MICCAI EndoVis2017 challenge) using the target task (in this instance: segmentation).

CONCLUSION

As it makes efficient use of available (non-)public and (un-)labeled data, the approach has the potential to become a valuable tool for CNN (pre-)training.

RAS-pathway mutation patterns define epigenetic subclasses in juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia

Juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia (JMML) is an aggressive myeloproliferative disorder of early childhood characterized by mutations activating RAS signaling. Established clinical and genetic markers fail to fully recapitulate the clinical and biological heterogeneity of this disease. Here we report DNA methylome analysis and mutation profiling of 167 JMML samples. We identify three JMML subgroups with unique molecular and clinical characteristics. The high methylation group (HM) is characterized by somatic PTPN11 mutations and poor clinical outcome. The low methylation group is enriched for somatic NRAS and CBL mutations, as well as for Noonan patients, and has a good prognosis. The intermediate methylation group (IM) shows enrichment for monosomy 7 and somatic KRAS mutations. Hypermethylation is associated with repressed chromatin, genes regulated by RAS signaling, frequent co-occurrence of RAS pathway mutations and upregulation of DNMT1 and DNMT3B, suggesting a link between activation of the DNA methylation machinery and mutational patterns in JMML.

Antibodies against human papillomaviruses as diagnostic and prognostic biomarker in patients with neck squamous cell carcinoma from unknown primary tumor

Treatment of patients with neck lymph node metastasis of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) from unknown primary tumor (NSCCUP) is challenging due to the risk of missing occult tumors or inducing toxicity to unaffected sites. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a promising biomarker given its causal link to oropharyngeal SCC and superior survival of patients with HPV-driven oropharyngeal SCC and NSCCUP. Identification of HPV-driven NSCCUP could focus diagnostic work-up and treatment on the oropharynx. For the first time, we assessed HPV antibodies and their prognostic value in NSCCUP patients. Antibodies against E6 and E7 (HPV16/18/31/33/35), E1 and E2 (HPV16/18) were assessed in 46 NSCCUP patients in sera collected at diagnosis, and in follow-up sera from five patients. In 28 patients, HPV tumor status was determined using molecular markers (HPV DNA, mRNA and cellular p16^INK4a ). Thirteen (28%) NSCCUP patients were HPV-seropositive for HPV16, 18, 31, or 33. Of eleven patients with HPV-driven NSCCUP, ten were HPV-seropositive, while all 17 patients with non-HPV-driven NSCCUP were HPV-seronegative, resulting in 91% sensitivity (95% CI: 59-100%) and 100% specificity (95% CI: 80-100%). HPV antibody levels decreased after curative treatment. Recurrence was associated with increasing levels in an individual case. HPV-seropositive patients had a better overall and progression-free survival with hazard ratios of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.01-0.42) and 0.03 (95% CI: 0.002-0.18), respectively. For the first time, seropositivity to HPV proteins is described in NSCCUP patients, and high sensitivity and specificity for HPV-driven NSCCUP are demonstrated. HPV seropositivity appears to be a reliable diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for patients with HPV-driven NSCCUP.

Prediction of malignancy by a radiomic signature from contrast agent-free diffusion MRI in suspicious breast lesions found on screening mammography

PURPOSE

To assess radiomics as a tool to determine how well lesions found suspicious on breast cancer screening X-ray mammography can be categorized into malignant and benign with unenhanced magnetic resonance (MR) mammography with diffusion-weighted imaging and T₂ -weighted sequences.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From an asymptomatic screening cohort, 50 women with mammographically suspicious findings were examined with contrast-enhanced breast MRI (ceMRI) at 1.5T. Out of this protocol an unenhanced, abbreviated diffusion-weighted imaging protocol (ueMRI) including T₂ -weighted, (T₂ w), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and DWI with background suppression (DWIBS) sequences and corresponding apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps were extracted. From ueMRI-derived radiomic features, three Lasso-supervised machine-learning classifiers were constructed and compared with the clinical performance of a highly experienced radiologist: 1) univariate mean ADC model, 2) unconstrained radiomic model, 3) constrained radiomic model with mandatory inclusion of mean ADC.

RESULTS

The unconstrained and constrained radiomic classifiers consisted of 11 parameters each and achieved differentiation of malignant from benign lesions with a .632 + bootstrap receiver operating characteristics (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of 84.2%/85.1%, compared to 77.4% for mean ADC and 95.9%/95.9% for the experienced radiologist using ceMRI/ueMRI.

CONCLUSION

In this pilot study we identified two ueMRI radiomics classifiers that performed well in the differentiation of malignant from benign lesions and achieved higher performance than the mean ADC parameter alone. Classification was lower than the almost perfect performance of a highly experienced breast radiologist. The potential of radiomics to provide a training-independent diagnostic decision tool is indicated. A performance reaching the human expert would be highly desirable and based on our results is considered possible when the concept is extended in larger cohorts with further development and validation of the technique.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

1 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. MAGN. RESON. IMAGING 2017;46:604-616.

Integrative Genome-Scale Analysis Identifies Epigenetic Mechanisms of Transcriptional Deregulation in Unfavorable Neuroblastomas

The broad clinical spectrum of neuroblastoma ranges from spontaneous regression to rapid progression despite intensive multimodal therapy. This diversity is not fully explained by known genetic aberrations, suggesting the possibility of epigenetic involvement in pathogenesis. In pursuit of this hypothesis, we took an integrative approach to analyze the methylomes, transcriptomes, and copy number variations in 105 cases of neuroblastoma, complemented by primary tumor- and cell line-derived global histone modification analyses and epigenetic drug treatment in vitro We found that DNA methylation patterns identify divergent patient subgroups with respect to survival and clinicobiologic variables, including amplified MYCN Transcriptome integration and histone modification-based definition of enhancer elements revealed intragenic enhancer methylation as a mechanism for high-risk-associated transcriptional deregulation. Furthermore, in high-risk neuroblastomas, we obtained evidence for cooperation between PRC2 activity and DNA methylation in blocking tumor-suppressive differentiation programs. Notably, these programs could be re-activated by combination treatments, which targeted both PRC2 and DNA methylation. Overall, our results illuminate how epigenetic deregulation contributes to neuroblastoma pathogenesis, with novel implications for its diagnosis and therapy. Cancer Res; 76(18); 5523-37. ©2016 AACR.