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Petráš M, Janovská D, Lomozová D, Franklová M, Dlouhý P, Rosina J, Lesná IK. Understanding the time-driven shifts of vaccine effectiveness against any and severe COVID-19 before and after the surge of Omicron variants within 2.5 years of vaccination: A meta-regression. Int J Infect Dis 2024; 142:106986. [PMID: 38417615 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2024.106986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2023] [Revised: 02/06/2024] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/01/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The COVID-19 pandemic required rapid development of vaccines within a short period of time which did not allow to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the long-term. METHODS A computerized literature search was undertaken to identify eligible studies, with no language restrictions, published between 1 December 2020 and 30 June 2023. RESULTS Out of a total of 27,597 publications, 761 studies were included. Early VE of 87.2% decreased to 55.1% after 9 months among populations fully immunized not only with mRNA (proxy mRNA) vaccines, and 66.3% decreased to 23.5% in populations immunized exclusively with non-mRNA vaccines. Protection against severe COVID-19 declined to 80.9% for proxy mRNA vaccines and 67.2% for non-mRNA vaccines. Omicron variants significantly diminished VE. Within 6-8 months of receiving a single booster of an mRNA vaccine, VE declined to 14.0% and 67.7% for any and severe COVID-19, respectively. Multiple mRNA booster doses restored protection that declined to 29.5% and 70.6% for any and severe COVID-19, respectively, within 5-7 months. CONCLUSION Outcomes of this meta-regression underscore the evolving nature of COVID-19 in response to vaccination, dosing schedules, and emerging variants, and provide crucial insights for public health interventions and vaccination strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marek Petráš
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Daniela Janovská
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Danuše Lomozová
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Martina Franklová
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Pavel Dlouhý
- Department of Hygiene, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jozef Rosina
- Department of Medical Biophysics and Informatics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; Department of Health Care and Population Protection, Faculty of Biomedical Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Kladno, Czech Republic
| | - Ivana Králová Lesná
- Laboratory for Atherosclerosis Research, Centre for Experimental Medicine, Institute for Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Prague, Czech Republic; Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Medicine, First Faculty of Medicine, Charles University and University Military Hospital, Prague, Czech Republic
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Petráš M, Máčalík R, Janovská D, Čelko AM, Dáňová J, Selinger E, Doleček J, Neradová S, Franklová M, Dlouhý P, Rosina J, Lesná IK. Risk factors affecting COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness identified from 290 cross-country observational studies until February 2022: a meta-analysis and meta-regression. BMC Med 2022; 20:461. [PMID: 36434597 PMCID: PMC9701077 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02663-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Observational studies made it possible to assess the impact of risk factors on the long-term effectiveness of mRNA and adenoviral vector (AdV) vaccines against COVID-19. METHODS A computerized literature search was undertaken using the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and MedRxiv databases to identify eligible studies, with no language restrictions, published up to 28 February 2022. Eligible were observational studies assessing vaccine effectiveness (VE) by disease severity with reference groups of unvaccinated participants or participants immunized with one, two, or three vaccine doses. Our study was carried out in compliance with the PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. The risk of study bias was identified using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. The GRADE guidelines were applied to assess the strength of evidence for the primary outcome. The synthesis was conducted using a meta-analysis and meta-regression. RESULTS Out of a total of 14,155 publications, 290 studies were included. Early VE of full vaccination against COVID-19 of any symptomatology and severity decreased from 96% (95% CI, 95-96%) for mRNA and from 86% (95% CI, 83-89%) for AdV vaccines to 67% for both vaccine types in the last 2 months of 2021. A similar 1-year decline from 98 to 86% was found for severe COVID-19 after full immunization with mRNA, but not with AdV vaccines providing persistent 82-87% effectiveness. Variant-reduced VE was only associated with Omicron regardless of disease severity, vaccine type, or vaccination completeness. The level of protection was reduced in participants aged >65 years, with a comorbidity or those in long-term care or residential homes independently of the number of doses received. The booster effect of the third mRNA dose was unclear because incompletely restored effectiveness, regardless of disease severity, declined within a short-term interval of 4 months. CONCLUSIONS Full vaccination provided an early high, yet waning level of protection against COVID-19 of any severity with a strong impact on the high-risk population. Moreover, the potential risk of new antigenically distinct variants should not be underestimated, and any future immunization strategy should include variant-updated vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marek Petráš
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Roman Máčalík
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Daniela Janovská
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alexander M Čelko
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jana Dáňová
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Eliška Selinger
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic.,Centre for Public Health Promotion, National Institute of Public Health, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jonáš Doleček
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Sylva Neradová
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Martina Franklová
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Ruská 87, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Pavel Dlouhý
- Department of Hygiene, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jozef Rosina
- Department of Medical Biophysics and Informatics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic.,Department of Health Care and Population Protection, Faculty of Biomedical Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, 272 01, Kladno, Czech Republic
| | - Ivana Králová Lesná
- Laboratory for Atherosclerosis Research, Centre for Experimental Medicine, Institute for Clinical and Experimental Medicine, 140 21, Prague, Czech Republic.,Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Medicine, First Faculty of Medicine, Charles University and University Military Hospital, 100 00, Prague, Czech Republic
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