A three-gene signature marks the time to locoregional recurrence in luminal-like breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Gene expression profiling (GEP)-based prognostic signatures are being rapidly integrated into clinical decision making for systemic management of breast cancer patients. However, GEP remains relatively underdeveloped for locoregional risk assessment. Yet, locoregional recurrence (LRR), especially early after surgery, is associated with poor survival.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

GEP was carried out on two independent luminal-like breast cancer cohorts of patients developing early (≤5 years after surgery) or late (>5 years) LRR and used, by a training and testing approach, to build a gene signature able to intercept women at risk of developing early LRR. The GEP data of two in silico datasets and of a third independent cohort were used to explore its prognostic value.

RESULTS

Analysis of the first two cohorts led to the identification of three genes, CSTB, CCDC91 and ITGB1, whose expression, derived by principal component analysis, generated a three-gene signature significantly associated with early LRR in both cohorts (P value <0.001 and 0.005, respectively), overcoming the discriminatory capability of age, hormone receptor status and therapy. Remarkably, the integration of the signature with these clinical variables led to an area under the curve of 0.878 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.810-0.945]. In in silico datasets we found that the three-gene signature retained its association, showing higher values in the early relapsed patients. Moreover, in the third additional cohort, the signature significantly associated with relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.04-2.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Our three-gene signature represents a new exploitable tool to aid treatment choice in patients with luminal-like breast cancer at risk of developing early recurrence.

Bridging the information gap on cancer survivors in Europe: results from the iPAAC Joint Action

Background

Due to demographic transition cancer survivors are dramatically growing and challenging the sustainability of public health systems. Despite accurate indicators are increasingly needed for Health Technology Assessment and health care planning, population-based cancer prevalence is not systematically available in many countries. The European Joint Action “Innovative Partnership for Action Against Cancer” (iPAAC) aims at bridging this gap by supporting the inclusion of indicators on prevalence to complement the cancer burden statistics already available in the European Cancer Information System (ECIS).

Methods

Analysis of a European-wide standardized dataset gathering information on 26 million patients from 100 cancer registries in 29 countries (EUROCARE-6). Methods to estimate and project complete and limited duration population-based prevalence indicators by demographic variables, cancer type and phase of care.

Results

Cancer survivors are mostly women (about 55%) and people over-60 years. Highest crude prevalence proportions in women are observed for breast, colon-rectum, corpus uteri, skin melanoma and cervical cancer (from 1,600 to 200 x 100,000). Prostate, colon-rectum, bladder, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and skin melanoma were the most frequent cancers among male survivors (from 1,000 to 200 x 100,000). Between-country differences are wide, consistently with varying demographic structure, incidence and survival patterns. Impact of long-term survivorship strongly depends on disease lethality.

Conclusions

Cancer survivors are a quite heterogenous population in respect of age, sex, cancer type and disease duration. Reliable and comparable prevalence indicators are essential to improve cancer care planning in European countries. Joint analysis of European wide population-based datasets strengthens the impact of cancer registries information and foster the release of complete statistics on cancer survivors.

Key messages

Cancer survivors are a growing and heterogeneous population to be monitored in public health. Detailed and comparable indicators on cancer prevalence are proposed to complement the cancer burden statistics of the European Cancer Information System (ECIS) through improved collaborative efforts.

Factors influencing acute and late toxicity in the era of adjuvant hypofractionated breast radiotherapy

PURPOSE

To evaluate toxicity in breast cancer patients treated with anthracycline and taxane based chemotherapy and whole breast hypofractionated radiotherapy, and to identify the risk factors for toxicity.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

537 early breast cancer patients receiving hypofractionated radiotherapy after conservative surgery were enrolled from April 2009 to December 2014, in an Italian cancer institute. The dose was 42.4 Gy in 16 daily fractions, 2.65 Gy per fraction. The boost to the tumor bed was administered only in grade III breast cancer patients and in patients with close or positive margins. Acute and late toxicity were prospectively assessed during and after radiotherapy according to RTOG scale. The impact of patients clinical characteristics, performed treatments and dose inhomogeneities on the occurrence of an higher level of acute skin toxicity and late fibrosis has been evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The mean age was 74 (range 46-91 yrs). 27% of patients received boost. 22% of cases (n = 119) received also chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 32 months. G1 and G2/G3 acute skin toxicity were 61.3% and 20.5% and G1 and G2/G3 late fibrosis 12.6% and 4.3% respectively. Chemotherapy (p = 0.04), diabetes (p = 0.04) and boost administration (p < 0.01) were found to be statistically significant on the occurrence of late fibrosis, but a multivariate analysis did not show any factors connected. The boost administration (p < 0.01), the breast volume (p = 0.05), dose inhomogeneities (p < 0.01) and boost volume (p = 0.04) were found to be statistically significant as concerns the occurrence of acute skin reaction at the univariate analysis, but only the boost administration (p = 0.02), at multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our study, according to the large randomized trials, confirmed that hypofractionated whole breast irradiation is safe, and only the boost administration seems to be an important predictor for toxicity. Chemotherapy does not impact on acute and late skin toxicity.

Abstract P1-14-22: Neo-adjuvant chemotherapy for the treatment of breast cancer exterts a selection pressure toward luminal phenotype

The effect of anthracycline and taxane based chemotherapy on biological features of residual disease after neo-adjuvant therapies in breast cancer patients is poorly described.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: We collected information through the institutional clinical database on all consecutive breast cancer patients treated with neo-adjuvant chemotherapy at INT, Milan, Italy, between January 2010 and March 2015. We selected patients who did not achieve pathological complete response at final surgery. All patients had a pathological evaluation including the shrinking pattern (scattered or concentric); ER, PgR, HER2 and Ki-67 expression were evaluated both at diagnostic biopsy and at final surgery. McNemar's test was used to compare paired proportions.

RESULTS: We identified a total of 325 patients. Median age was 51 yrs (range: 23 - 85 yrs). 304 (93%) pts received anthracycline and taxane containing chemotherapy for a median number of 6 (range 2-18) cycles. Radical modified mastectomy was performed in 68% of cases. Scattered residual disease was diagnosed in 112 (34%) cases. HER2 over-expression in diagnostic biopsy was significantly associated to scattered response (OR 1.94, CI 1.13 – 3.36, p= 0.017). 11/220 pts (5%) with ER-positive diagnostic biopsy had ER-negative residual tumor; 9/54 pts (17%) with initial ER-negative tumors became ER-positive. 34/183 (19%) pts with initial positive PgR at diagnostic biopsy had PgR-negative residual tumor; whereas, 17/86 pts (20%) with negative PgR became positive. The HER2 expression changed from positive to negative in 9/49 (18%) cases and from negative to positive in 7/190 (4%) cases. The Ki-67 expression changed from &gt; or =20% to &lt;20% in 63/175 (36%) cases and vice-versa in 14/54 (26%) cases. Compared to diagnostic biopsy, the rate of PgR-positive tumors decreased from 68 to 62% (p= 0.024) and the rate of Ki67&lt;20% tumors increased from 24 to 45% (p=&lt;0.001) in surgical specimen. Subtype changes at surgery occurred in 37/245 (15%) of cases, i.e. none in triple negative, 8/20 (10%) in HER2 positive, and 29/202 (14%) in luminal tumors. 73% of cases that changed after treatment showed a trend towards luminal differentiation. There was no significant correlation between pre- and post-treatment biological characteristics and the type of tumor shrinkage.

CONCLUSION: Anthracycline and taxane-based neo-adjuvant chemotherapy induces loss of PgR and Ki-67 in breast cancer. These changes are independent of the pattern of tumor shrinkage. The subtype switching toward more luminal phenotype suggest an endocrine effect of chemotherapy and paves the way to possible combinatorial approach of chemo- and hormone-therapy.

Citation Format: Galli G, Porcu L, Baili P, Hade A, Di Salvo F, Bregni G, Agresti R, Gennaro M, De Santis MC, Ferrari B, de Braud F, Di Cosimo S. Neo-adjuvant chemotherapy for the treatment of breast cancer exterts a selection pressure toward luminal phenotype. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-14-22.

Survival in patients with primary liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer in Europe 1999-2007: Results of EUROCARE-5

BACKGROUND

The EUROCARE study collects and analyses survival data from population-based cancer registries (CRs) in Europe in order to provide data on between-country differences in survival and time trends in survival.

METHODS

This study analyses data on liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancers ("biliary tract cancers"), and pancreatic cancer diagnosed in 2000-2007 from 88 CRs in 29 countries. Relative survival (RS) was estimated overall, by region, sex, age and period of diagnosis using the complete approach. Time trends in 5-year RS over 1999-2007 were also analysed using the period approach.

RESULTS

The prognosis of the studied cancers was poor. Age-standardised 5-year RS was 12% for liver cancer, 17% for biliary tract cancers and 7% for pancreatic cancer. There were some between-country differences in survival. In general, RS was low in Eastern Europe and high in Central and Southern Europe. For all sites, 5-year RS was similar in men and women and decreased with advancing age. No substantial changes in survival were reported for pancreatic cancer over the period 1999-2007. On average, there was a crude increase in 5-year RS of 3 percentage points between the periods 1999-2001 and 2005-2007 for liver cancer and biliary tract cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The major changes in imaging techniques over the study period for the diagnosis of the three studied cancers did not result in an improvement in the prognosis of these cancers. In the near future, new innovative treatments might be the best way to improve the prognosis in these cancers.

Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

Original, population-based estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure in cancer patients are provided. More than a quarter of cancer patients in Italy have reached death rates similar to those of the general population. Nearly three quarters of them will not die as a result of cancer. These estimates are potentially helpful to health-care planners, clinicians, and patients.

Background

Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking.

Patients and methods

Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds.

Results

The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%.

Conclusions

A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective.

Modelling obesity outcomes: reducing obesity risk in adulthood may have greater impact than reducing obesity prevalence in childhood

A common policy response to the rise in obesity prevalence is to undertake interventions in childhood, but it is an open question whether this is more effective than reducing the risk of becoming obese during adulthood. In this paper, we model the effect on health outcomes of (i) reducing the prevalence of obesity when entering adulthood; (ii) reducing the risk of becoming obese throughout adult life; and (iii) combinations of both approaches. We found that, while all approaches reduce the prevalence of chronic diseases and improve life expectancy, a given percentage reduction in obesity prevalence achieved during childhood had a smaller effect than the same percentage reduction in the risk of becoming obese applied throughout adulthood. A small increase in the probability of becoming obese during adulthood offsets a substantial reduction in prevalence of overweight/obesity achieved during childhood, with the gains from a 50% reduction in child obesity prevalence offset by a 10% increase in the probability of becoming obese in adulthood. We conclude that both policy approaches can improve the health profile throughout the life course of a cohort, but they are not equivalent, and a large reduction in child obesity prevalence may be reversed by a small increase in the risk of becoming overweight or obese in adulthood.

Life expectancy and cancer survival in the EUROCARE-3 cancer registry areas

BACKGROUND

Mortality information is essential for estimating relative cancer survival (that excludes deaths from other causes). However, sufficiently detailed mortality data are not available for all areas covered by the cancer registries (CRs) participating in the EUROCARE-3 study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Mathematical methods were used to construct complete local mortality data (life tables) for each year of age (0-99), for each year (1978-2000) and by sex, from the incomplete life tables provided by CRs, presenting the results as life expectancy at birth (LE). Socio-economic data were obtained from the United Nations (UN) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

RESULTS

The time and regional trends in LE provided by our estimates are closely similar to those published by the UN at the country level. According to UN data, LE (men plus women) varied from 70 years in Estonia to almost 79 years in Sweden in the period 1995-1999. LE increased markedly over the 20-year study period in most countries except Estonia and Denmark. LE correlated directly with GDP, national expenditure on health and relative survival for all cancers combined. We found that within-country LE variation was large in some countries (particularly the UK). Sweden, Iceland, Switzerland, and parts of Spain and Italy had high LE; eastern European countries had low LE.

CONCLUSIONS

Detailed area-specific life tables are essential for reliable estimation of relative cancer survival and its comparison across populations, since LE varies markedly across Europe. Where not available, life tables can be constructed to the required level of detail using mathematical approaches.