Metabarcoding and applied ecology with hyperdiverse organisms: Recommendations for biological control research

Metabarcoding is revolutionizing fundamental research in ecology by enabling large-scale detection of species and producing data that are rich with community context. However, the benefits of metabarcoding have yet to be fully realized in fields of applied ecology, especially those such as classical biological control (CBC) research that involve hyperdiverse taxa. Here, we discuss some of the opportunities that metabarcoding provides CBC and solutions to the main methodological challenges that have limited the integration of metabarcoding in existing CBC workflows. We focus on insect parasitoids, which are popular and effective biological control agents (BCAs) of invasive species and agricultural pests. Accurately identifying native, invasive and BCA species is paramount, since misidentification can undermine control efforts and lead to large negative socio-economic impacts. Unfortunately, most existing publicly accessible genetic databases cannot be used to reliably identify parasitoid species, thereby limiting the accuracy of metabarcoding in CBC research. To address this issue, we argue for the establishment of authoritative genetic databases that link metabarcoding data to taxonomically identified specimens. We further suggest using multiple genetic markers to reduce primer bias and increase taxonomic resolution. We also provide suggestions for biological control-specific metabarcoding workflows intended to track the long-term effectiveness of introduced BCAs. Finally, we use the example of an invasive pest, Drosophila suzukii, in a reflective "what if" thought experiment to explore the potential power of community metabarcoding in CBC.

Global determinants of insect mitochondrial genetic diversity

Understanding global patterns of genetic diversity is essential for describing, monitoring, and preserving life on Earth. To date, efforts to map macrogenetic patterns have been restricted to vertebrates, which comprise only a small fraction of Earth's biodiversity. Here, we construct a global map of predicted insect mitochondrial genetic diversity from cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 sequences, derived from open data. We calculate the mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and genetic diversity evenness of insect assemblages across the globe, identify their environmental correlates, and make predictions of mitochondrial genetic diversity levels in unsampled areas based on environmental data. Using a large single-locus genetic dataset of over 2 million globally distributed and georeferenced mtDNA sequences, we find that mitochondrial genetic diversity evenness follows a quadratic latitudinal gradient peaking in the subtropics. Both mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and evenness positively correlate with seasonally hot temperatures, as well as climate stability since the last glacial maximum. Our models explain 27.9% and 24.0% of the observed variation in mitochondrial genetic diversity mean and evenness in insects, respectively, making an important step towards understanding global biodiversity patterns in the most diverse animal taxon.

Analyses of three-dimensional species associations reveal departures from neutrality in a tropical forest

The study of community spatial structure is central to understanding diversity patterns over space and species co-occurrence at local scales. While most analytical approaches consider horizontal and vertical dimensions separately, in this study we introduce a three-dimensional spatial analysis that simultaneously includes horizontal and vertical species associations. Using tree census data (2000 to 2016) and allometries from the Luquillo forest plot in Puerto Rico, we show that spatial organization becomes less random over time as the forest recovered from land-use legacy effects and hurricane disturbance. Tree species vertical segregation is predominant in the forest with almost all species that co-occur in the horizontal plane avoiding each other in the vertical dimension. Horizontal segregation is less common than vertical, while three-dimensional aggregation (a proxy for direct tree competition) is the least frequent type of spatial association. Furthermore, dominant species are involved in more non-random spatial associations, implying that species co-occurrence is facilitated by species segregation in space. This novel three-dimensional analysis allowed us to identify and quantify tree species spatial distributions, how interspecific competition was reduced through forest structure, and how it changed over time after disturbance, in ways not detectable from two-dimensional analyses alone.

DROP: Molecular voucher database for identification of Drosophila parasitoids

Molecular identification is increasingly used to speed up biodiversity surveys and laboratory experiments. However, many groups of organisms cannot be reliably identified using standard databases such as GenBank or BOLD due to lack of sequenced voucher specimens identified by experts. Sometimes a large number of sequences are available, but with too many errors to allow identification. Here, we address this problem for parasitoids of Drosophila by introducing a curated open-access molecular reference database, DROP (Drosophila parasitoids). Identifying Drosophila parasitoids is challenging and poses a major impediment to realize the full potential of this model system in studies ranging from molecular mechanisms to food webs, and in biological control of Drosophila suzukii. In DROP, genetic data are linked to voucher specimens and, where possible, the voucher specimens are identified by taxonomists and vetted through direct comparison with primary type material. To initiate DROP, we curated 154 laboratory strains, 856 vouchers, 554 DNA sequences, 16 genomes, 14 transcriptomes, and six proteomes drawn from a total of 183 operational taxonomic units (OTUs): 114 described Drosophila parasitoid species and 69 provisional species. We found species richness of Drosophila parasitoids to be heavily underestimated and provide an updated taxonomic catalogue for the community. DROP offers accurate molecular identification and improves cross-referencing between individual studies that we hope will catalyse research on this diverse and fascinating model system. Our effort should also serve as an example for researchers facing similar molecular identification problems in other groups of organisms.

Predictor species: Improving assessments of rare species occurrence by modeling environmental co-responses

Designing an effective conservation strategy requires understanding where rare species are located. Because rare species can be difficult to find, ecologists often identify other species called conservation surrogates that can help inform the distribution of rare species. Species distribution models typically rely on environmental data when predicting the occurrence of species, neglecting the effect of species' co-occurrences and biotic interactions. Here, we present a new approach that uses Bayesian networks to improve predictions by modeling environmental co-responses among species. For species from a European peat bog community, our approach consistently performs better than single-species models and better than conventional multi-species approaches that include the presence of nontarget species as additional independent variables in regression models. Our approach performs particularly well with rare species and when calibration data are limited. Furthermore, we identify a group of "predictor species" that are relatively common, insensitive to the presence of other species, and can be used to improve occurrence predictions of rare species. Predictor species are distinct from other categories of conservation surrogates such as umbrella or indicator species, which motivates focused data collection of predictor species to enhance conservation practices.

Negative biotic interactions drive predictions of distributions for species from a grassland community

Understanding the factors that determine species' geographical distributions is important for addressing a wide range of biological questions, including where species will be able to maintain populations following environmental change. New methods for modelling species distributions include the effects of biotic interactions alongside more commonly used abiotic variables such as temperature and precipitation; however, it is not clear which types of interspecific relationship contribute to shaping species distributions and should therefore be prioritized in models. Even if some interactions are known to be influential at local spatial scales, there is no guarantee they will have similar impacts at macroecological scales. Here we apply a novel method based on information theory to determine which types of interspecific relationship drive species distributions. Our results show that negative biotic interactions such as competition have the greatest effect on model predictions for species from a California grassland community. This knowledge will help focus data collection and improve model predictions for identifying at-risk species. Furthermore, our methodological approach is applicable to any kind of species distribution model that can be specified with and without interspecific relationships.

Predicting the effect of habitat modification on networks of interacting species

A pressing challenge for ecologists is predicting how human-driven environmental changes will affect the complex pattern of interactions among species in a community. Weighted networks are an important tool for studying changes in interspecific interactions because they record interaction frequencies in addition to presence or absence at a field site. Here we show that changes in weighted network structure following habitat modification are, in principle, predictable. Our approach combines field data with mathematical models: the models separate changes in relative species abundance from changes in interaction preferences (which describe how interaction frequencies deviate from random encounters). The models with the best predictive ability compared to data requirement are those that capture systematic changes in interaction preferences between different habitat types. Our results suggest a viable approach for predicting the consequences of rapid environmental change for the structure of complex ecological networks, even in the absence of detailed, system-specific empirical data.

In a changing world, the ability to predict the impact of environmental change on ecological communities is essential. Here, the authors show that by separating species abundances from interaction preferences, they can predict the effects of habitat modification on the structure of weighted species interaction networks, even with limited data.

Correction: Bounds on Transient Instability for Complex Ecosystems

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157876.].

Bounds on Transient Instability for Complex Ecosystems

Stability is a desirable property of complex ecosystems. If a community of interacting species is at a stable equilibrium point then it is able to withstand small perturbations to component species' abundances without suffering adverse effects. In ecology, the Jacobian matrix evaluated at an equilibrium point is known as the community matrix, which describes the population dynamics of interacting species. A system's asymptotic short- and long-term behaviour can be determined from eigenvalues derived from the community matrix. Here we use results from the theory of pseudospectra to describe intermediate, transient dynamics. We first recover the established result that the transition from stable to unstable dynamics includes a region of 'transient instability', where the effect of a small perturbation to species' abundances-to the population vector-is amplified before ultimately decaying. Then we show that the shift from stability to transient instability can be affected by uncertainty in, or small changes to, entries in the community matrix, and determine lower and upper bounds to the maximum amplitude of perturbations to the population vector. Of five different types of community matrix, we find that amplification is least severe when predator-prey interactions dominate. This analysis is relevant to other systems whose dynamics can be expressed in terms of the Jacobian matrix.

Warming and nitrogen affect size structuring and density dependence in a host-parasitoid food web

Body size is a major factor constraining the trophic structure and functioning of ecological communities. Food webs are known to respond to changes in basal resource abundance, and climate change can initiate compounding bottom-up effects on food-web structure through altered resource availability and quality. However, the effects of climate and co-occurring global changes, such as nitrogen deposition, on the density and size relationships between resources and consumers are unknown, particularly in host-parasitoid food webs, where size structuring is less apparent. We use a Bayesian modelling approach to explore the role of consumer and resource density and body size on host-parasitoid food webs assembled from a field experiment with factorial warming and nitrogen treatments. We show that the treatments increased resource (host) availability and quality (size), leading to measureable changes in parasitoid feeding behaviour. Parasitoids interacted less evenly within their host range and increasingly focused on abundant and high-quality (i.e. larger) hosts. In summary, we present evidence that climate-mediated bottom-up effects can significantly alter food-web structure through both density- and trait-mediated effects.

Structural dynamics and robustness of food webs

Food web structure plays an important role when determining robustness to cascading secondary extinctions. However, existing food web models do not take into account likely changes in trophic interactions ('rewiring') following species loss. We investigated structural dynamics in 12 empirically documented food webs by simulating primary species loss using three realistic removal criteria, and measured robustness in terms of subsequent secondary extinctions. In our model, novel trophic interactions can be established between predators and food items not previously consumed following the loss of competing predator species. By considering the increase in robustness conferred through rewiring, we identify a new category of species--overlap species--which promote robustness as shown by comparing simulations incorporating structural dynamics to those with static topologies. The fraction of overlap species in a food web is highly correlated with this increase in robustness; whereas species richness and connectance are uncorrelated with increased robustness. Our findings underline the importance of compensatory mechanisms that may buffer ecosystems against environmental change, and highlight the likely role of particular species that are expected to facilitate this buffering.

Rapidly detecting disorder in rhythmic biological signals: a spectral entropy measure to identify cardiac arrhythmias

We consider the use of a running measure of power spectrum disorder to distinguish between the normal sinus rhythm of the heart and two forms of cardiac arrhythmia: atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter. This spectral entropy measure is motivated by characteristic differences in the power spectra of beat timings during the three rhythms. We plot patient data derived from ten-beat windows on a "disorder map" and identify rhythm-defining ranges in the level and variance of spectral entropy values. Employing the spectral entropy within an automatic arrhythmia detection algorithm enables the classification of periods of atrial fibrillation from the time series of patients' beats. When the algorithm is set to identify abnormal rhythms within 6 s, it agrees with 85.7% of the annotations of professional rhythm assessors; for a response time of 30 s, this becomes 89.5%, and with 60 s, it is 90.3%. The algorithm provides a rapid way to detect atrial fibrillation, demonstrating usable response times as low as 6s. Measures of disorder in the frequency domain have practical significance in a range of biological signals: the techniques described in this paper have potential application for the rapid identification of disorder in other rhythmic signals.