1
|
Fleisher DH, Condori B, Quiroz R, Alva A, Asseng S, Barreda C, Bindi M, Boote KJ, Ferrise R, Franke AC, Govindakrishnan PM, Harahagazwe D, Hoogenboom G, Naresh Kumar S, Merante P, Nendel C, Olesen JE, Parker PS, Raes D, Raymundo R, Ruane AC, Stockle C, Supit I, Vanuytrecht E, Wolf J, Woli P. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:1258-1281. [PMID: 27387228 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2016] [Accepted: 06/19/2016] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- David H Fleisher
- Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA
| | - Bruno Condori
- Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA
| | - Roberto Quiroz
- Production Systems and the Environment, International Potato Center, Lima, Peru
| | - Ashok Alva
- Desert Agriculture and Ecosystem Program, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Safat, Kuwait
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Carolina Barreda
- Production Systems and the Environment, International Potato Center, Lima, Peru
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Kenneth J Boote
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Angelinus C Franke
- Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
| | | | - Dieudonne Harahagazwe
- Production Systems and the Environment, International Potato Center SSA, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India
| | - Paolo Merante
- Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Jorgen E Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
| | - Phillip S Parker
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Dirk Raes
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven University, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Rubi Raymundo
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
| | - Claudio Stockle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Iwan Supit
- Earth System Science and Climate Adaptive Land Management, Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Eline Vanuytrecht
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven University, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Joost Wolf
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Prem Woli
- AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Abstract
This study was designed as an experimental investigation of the validity of the tension reduction subscale of the Alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire (AEQ) (Brown, Goldman, Inn, & Anderson, 1980). Subjects completed the AEQ in group testing. At a later time, they were placed in a moderate-stress or nonstress control situation, and given the opportunity to consume alcohol or a nonalcoholic beverage. The tension reduction scale did not predict whether they drank or not, nor did it predict the amount of alcohol consumed. Results suggest caution in interpreting the tension reduction scale scores, and that further study of the validity of the tension reduction and other AEQ scales is necessary.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- K J Corcoran
- Psychology Department, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale 62901
| | | |
Collapse
|