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Dueri S, Brown H, Asseng S, Ewert F, Webber H, George M, Craigie R, Guarin JR, Pequeno DNL, Stella T, Ahmed M, Alderman PD, Basso B, Berger AG, Mujica GB, Cammarano D, Chen Y, Dumont B, Rezaei EE, Fereres E, Ferrise R, Gaiser T, Gao Y, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hochman Z, Hoogenboom G, Kersebaum KC, Nendel C, Olesen JE, Padovan G, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Pullens JWM, Rodríguez A, Rötter RP, Ramos MR, Semenov MA, Senapati N, Siebert S, Srivastava AK, Stöckle C, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Wang E, Weber TKD, Xiao L, Zhao C, Zhao J, Zhao Z, Zhu Y, Martre P. Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment. J Exp Bot 2022; 73:5715-5729. [PMID: 35728801 PMCID: PMC9467659 DOI: 10.1093/jxb/erac221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sibylle Dueri
- LEPSE, Univ. Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Hamish Brown
- The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Department of Life Science Engineering, Digital Agriculture, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Heidi Webber
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
- Brandenburg University of Technology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Sciences, Cottbus, Germany
| | - Mike George
- The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Rob Craigie
- Foundation for Arable Research, Templeton, New Zealand
| | - Jose Rafael Guarin
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
| | - Diego N L Pequeno
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Mexico DF, Mexico
| | - Tommaso Stella
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Mukhtar Ahmed
- Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
- Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Umeå, Sweden
| | - Phillip D Alderman
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
- W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Andres G Berger
- National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA), Colonia, Uruguay
| | - Gennady Bracho Mujica
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Yi Chen
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
| | - Benjamin Dumont
- Plant Sciences Axis – Crop Science, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium
| | | | - Elias Fereres
- IAS-CSIC & DAUCO, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agriculture, food, environment and forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Thomas Gaiser
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Yujing Gao
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Zvi Hochman
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Kurt C Kersebaum
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Global Change Research Institute, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
- Global Change Research Institute, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
- Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jørgen E Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
- Global Change Research Institute, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Gloria Padovan
- Department of Agriculture, food, environment and forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | - Alfredo Rodríguez
- CEIGRAM, Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
| | - Reimund P Rötter
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Stefan Siebert
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Amit Kumar Srivastava
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Iwan Supit
- Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Peter Thorburn
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | | | - Liujun Xiao
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Chuang Zhao
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Jin Zhao
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhigan Zhao
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
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2
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Liu B, Martre P, Ewert F, Porter JR, Challinor AJ, Müller C, Ruane AC, Waha K, Thorburn PJ, Aggarwal PK, Ahmed M, Balkovič J, Basso B, Biernath C, Bindi M, Cammarano D, De Sanctis G, Dumont B, Espadafor M, Eyshi Rezaei E, Ferrise R, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Gao Y, Horan H, Hoogenboom G, Izaurralde RC, Jones CD, Kassie BT, Kersebaum KC, Klein C, Koehler AK, Maiorano A, Minoli S, Montesino San Martin M, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, O'Leary GJ, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Rötter RP, Semenov MA, Stöckle C, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Van der Velde M, Wallach D, Wang E, Webber H, Wolf J, Xiao L, Zhang Z, Zhao Z, Zhu Y, Asseng S. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:1428-1444. [PMID: 30536680 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2018] [Accepted: 11/24/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Liu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Pierre Martre
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - John R Porter
- Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark
- Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand
- Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Andy J Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
| | | | | | - Pramod K Aggarwal
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India
| | - Mukhtar Ahmed
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
- Department of agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Juraj Balkovič
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University East Lansing, East Lansing, Michigan
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
| | - Christian Biernath
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | | | - Benjamin Dumont
- Department AgroBioChem & TERRA Teaching and Research Center, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium
| | - Mónica Espadafor
- IAS-CSIC, Department of Agronomy, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
| | - Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Yujing Gao
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Heidi Horan
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Roberto C Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
- Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M Univ., Temple, Texas
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
| | - Belay T Kassie
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Kurt C Kersebaum
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Christian Klein
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Ann-Kristin Koehler
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Andrea Maiorano
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
- European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy
| | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Garry J O'Leary
- Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Vic., Australia
| | - Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | - Reimund P Rötter
- University of Göttingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
| | - Thilo Streck
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Iwan Supit
- Water Systems & Global Change Group and WENR (Water & Food), Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
| | | | | | - Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, Australia
| | - Heidi Webber
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Joost Wolf
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Liujun Xiao
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Zhao Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhigan Zhao
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, Australia
- Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
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Rodríguez A, Ruiz-Ramos M, Palosuo T, Carter T, Fronzek S, Lorite I, Ferrise R, Pirttioja N, Bindi M, Baranowski P, Buis S, Cammarano D, Chen Y, Dumont B, Ewert F, Gaiser T, Hlavinka P, Hoffmann H, Höhn J, Jurecka F, Kersebaum K, Krzyszczak J, Lana M, Mechiche-Alami A, Minet J, Montesino M, Nendel C, Porter J, Ruget F, Semenov M, Steinmetz Z, Stratonovitch P, Supit I, Tao F, Trnka M, de Wit A, Rötter R. Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations. Agric For Meteorol 2019; 264:351-362. [PMID: 31007324 PMCID: PMC6472678 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2018] [Revised: 09/19/2018] [Accepted: 09/22/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. Rodríguez
- CEIGRAM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040, Madrid, Spain
- Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, 45071, Toledo, Spain
| | - M. Ruiz-Ramos
- CEIGRAM, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040, Madrid, Spain
| | - T. Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), 00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - T.R. Carter
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), 00251, Helsinki, Finland
| | - S. Fronzek
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), 00251, Helsinki, Finland
| | - I.J. Lorite
- IFAPA Junta de Andalucía, 14004, Córdoba, Spain
| | - R. Ferrise
- University of Florence, 50144, Florence, Italy
| | - N. Pirttioja
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), 00251, Helsinki, Finland
| | - M. Bindi
- University of Florence, 50144, Florence, Italy
| | - P. Baranowski
- Institute of Agrophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Doświadczalna 4, 20-290 Lublin, Poland
| | - S. Buis
- INRA, UMR 1114 EMMAH, F-84914, Avignon, France
| | - D. Cammarano
- James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, Scotland, UK
| | - Y. Chen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), 00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - B. Dumont
- Dpt. AgroBioChem& Terra, Crop Science Unit, ULgGembloux Agro-Bio Tech, 5030, Gembloux, Belgium
| | - F. Ewert
- INRES, University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany
| | - T. Gaiser
- INRES, University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany
| | - P. Hlavinka
- Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, 613 00, Czech Republic
- Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - H. Hoffmann
- INRES, University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany
| | - J.G. Höhn
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), 00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - F. Jurecka
- Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, 613 00, Czech Republic
- Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - K.C. Kersebaum
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - J. Krzyszczak
- Institute of Agrophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Doświadczalna 4, 20-290 Lublin, Poland
| | - M. Lana
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
- Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Ulls väg 16, 75007, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - A. Mechiche-Alami
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 223 62, Lund, Sweden
| | - J. Minet
- Université de Liège, Arlon Campus Environnement, 6700, Arlon, Belgium
| | - M. Montesino
- University of Copenhagen, 2630, Taastrup, Denmark
| | - C. Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - J.R. Porter
- University of Copenhagen, 2630, Taastrup, Denmark
| | - F. Ruget
- INRA, UMR 1114 EMMAH, F-84914, Avignon, France
| | - M.A. Semenov
- Rothamsted Research, Herts, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UK
| | | | | | - I. Supit
- Wageningen University, 6700AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - F. Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), 00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - M. Trnka
- Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, 613 00, Czech Republic
- Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - A. de Wit
- Wageningen University, 6700AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - R.P. Rötter
- TROPAGS, Department of Crop Sciences, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Grisebachstr. 6, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre for Biodiversity and Land Use (CBL), Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Büsgenweg 1, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
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Asseng S, Martre P, Maiorano A, Rötter RP, O'Leary GJ, Fitzgerald GJ, Girousse C, Motzo R, Giunta F, Babar MA, Reynolds MP, Kheir AMS, Thorburn PJ, Waha K, Ruane AC, Aggarwal PK, Ahmed M, Balkovič J, Basso B, Biernath C, Bindi M, Cammarano D, Challinor AJ, De Sanctis G, Dumont B, Eyshi Rezaei E, Fereres E, Ferrise R, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Gao Y, Horan H, Hoogenboom G, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kassie BT, Kersebaum KC, Klein C, Koehler AK, Liu B, Minoli S, Montesino San Martin M, Müller C, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, Olesen JE, Palosuo T, Porter JR, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Semenov MA, Stöckle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Van der Velde M, Wallach D, Wang E, Webber H, Wolf J, Xiao L, Zhang Z, Zhao Z, Zhu Y, Ewert F. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:155-173. [PMID: 30549200 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Accepted: 09/06/2018] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.
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Affiliation(s)
- Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Pierre Martre
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
| | - Andrea Maiorano
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
| | - Reimund P Rötter
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Garry J O'Leary
- Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia
| | - Glenn J Fitzgerald
- Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia
- Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Rosella Motzo
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy
| | - Francesco Giunta
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy
| | - M Ali Babar
- World Food Crops Breeding, Department of Agronomy, IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | | | - Ahmed M S Kheir
- Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt
| | | | - Katharina Waha
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
| | - Pramod K Aggarwal
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India
| | - Mukhtar Ahmed
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
- Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Juraj Balkovič
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
| | - Christian Biernath
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Andrew J Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Collaborative Research Program from CGIAR and Future Earth on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
| | | | - Benjamin Dumont
- Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium
| | - Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Yujing Gao
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Heidi Horan
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - R César Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
- Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, Texas
| | - Mohamed Jabloun
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
| | - Belay T Kassie
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | | | - Christian Klein
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Ann-Kristin Koehler
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Bing Liu
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | | | - Taru Palosuo
- Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - John R Porter
- Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark
- Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand
- Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | | | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
| | | | - Thilo Streck
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Iwan Supit
- Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
| | | | | | - Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Heidi Webber
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Joost Wolf
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Liujun Xiao
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhao Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhigan Zhao
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
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5
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Webber H, Ewert F, Olesen JE, Müller C, Fronzek S, Ruane AC, Bourgault M, Martre P, Ababaei B, Bindi M, Ferrise R, Finger R, Fodor N, Gabaldón-Leal C, Gaiser T, Jabloun M, Kersebaum KC, Lizaso JI, Lorite IJ, Manceau L, Moriondo M, Nendel C, Rodríguez A, Ruiz-Ramos M, Semenov MA, Siebert S, Stella T, Stratonovitch P, Trombi G, Wallach D. Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe. Nat Commun 2018; 9:4249. [PMID: 30315168 PMCID: PMC6185965 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 147] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2018] [Accepted: 09/07/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years. Drivers of crop yield variability require quantification, and historical records can help in improving understanding. Here, Webber et al. report that drought stress will remain a key driver of yield losses in wheat and maize across Europe, and benefits from CO2 will be limited in low-yielding years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heidi Webber
- Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Müncheberg, Germany. .,Institute of Crop Science and Resources Conservation, University of Bonn, Bonn, 53115, Germany.
| | - Frank Ewert
- Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.,Institute of Crop Science and Resources Conservation, University of Bonn, Bonn, 53115, Germany
| | - Jørgen E Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, 8830, Denmark
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
| | | | - Alex C Ruane
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, 10025, NY, USA
| | - Maryse Bourgault
- Northern Ag Research Center, Montana State University, 3710 Assinniboine Road, Havre, MT, USA
| | - Pierre Martre
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, 34060, Montpellier, France
| | - Behnam Ababaei
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, 34060, Montpellier, France.,Native Trait Research, Limagrain Europe, 63720, Chappes, France.,Centre for Crop Science, Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation, University of Queensland, 4069, Toowoomba, Australia
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, P.le delle Cascine 18, 50144, Firenze, Italy
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, P.le delle Cascine 18, 50144, Firenze, Italy
| | - Robert Finger
- ETH Zurich, Agricultural Economics and Policy Group, Zürich, 8092, Switzerland
| | - Nándor Fodor
- Agricultural Institute, Centre for Agricultural Research, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Martonvásár, 2462, Hungary
| | | | - Thomas Gaiser
- Institute of Crop Science and Resources Conservation, University of Bonn, Bonn, 53115, Germany
| | - Mohamed Jabloun
- School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Loughborough, LE12 5RD, UK
| | | | - Jon I Lizaso
- Research Centre for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks (CEIGRAM), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
| | - Ignacio J Lorite
- IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo, P.O. Box 3092, 14080, Córdoba, Spain
| | - Loic Manceau
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, 34060, Montpellier, France
| | | | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Alfredo Rodríguez
- Research Centre for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks (CEIGRAM), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain.,Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 45071, Toledo, Spain
| | - Margarita Ruiz-Ramos
- Research Centre for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks (CEIGRAM), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
| | - Mikhail A Semenov
- Department of Plant Science, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UK
| | - Stefan Siebert
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, 37075, Germany
| | - Tommaso Stella
- Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | | | - Giacomo Trombi
- Centre for Crop Science, Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation, University of Queensland, 4069, Toowoomba, Australia
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6
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Ghaley BB, Wösten H, Olesen JE, Schelde K, Baby S, Karki YK, Børgesen CD, Smith P, Yeluripati J, Ferrise R, Bindi M, Kuikman P, Lesschen JP, Porter JR. Simulation of Soil Organic Carbon Effects on Long-Term Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum) Production Under Varying Fertilizer Inputs. Front Plant Sci 2018; 9:1158. [PMID: 30135696 PMCID: PMC6092689 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2018.01158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2017] [Accepted: 07/23/2018] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC) has a vital role to enhance agricultural productivity and for mitigation of climate change. To quantify SOC effects on productivity, process models serve as a robust tool to keep track of multiple plant and soil factors and their interactions affecting SOC dynamics. We used soil-plant-atmospheric model viz. DAISY, to assess effects of SOC on nitrogen (N) supply and plant available water (PAW) under varying N fertilizer rates in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Denmark. The study objective was assessment of SOC effects on winter wheat grain and aboveground biomass accumulation at three SOC levels (low: 0.7% SOC; reference: 1.3% SOC; and high: 2% SOC) with five nitrogen rates (0-200 kg N ha-1) and PAW at low, reference, and high SOC levels. The three SOC levels had significant effects on grain yields and aboveground biomass accumulation at only 0-100 kg N ha-1 and the SOC effects decreased with increasing N rates until no effects at 150-200 kg N ha-1. PAW had significant positive correlation with SOC content, with high SOC retaining higher PAW compared to low and reference SOC. The mean PAW and SOC correlation was given by PAW% = 1.0073 × SOC% + 15.641. For the 0.7-2% SOC range, the PAW increase was small with no significant effects on grain yields and aboveground biomass accumulation. The higher winter wheat grain and aboveground biomass was attributed to higher N supply in N deficient wheat production system. Our study suggested that building SOC enhances agronomic productivity at only 0-100 kg N ha-1. Maintenance of SOC stock will require regular replenishment of SOC, to compensate for the mineralization process degrading SOC over time. Hence, management can maximize realization of SOC benefits by building up SOC and maintaining N rates in the range 0-100 kg N ha-1, to reduce the off-farm N losses depending on the environmental zones, land use and the production system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bhim B. Ghaley
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark
| | - Henk Wösten
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | | | - Kirsten Schelde
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
| | - Sanmohan Baby
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
| | | | | | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Jagadeesh Yeluripati
- Information and Computational Sciences Group, The James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Peter Kuikman
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Jan-Peter Lesschen
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - John R. Porter
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark
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7
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Tao F, Rötter RP, Palosuo T, Gregorio Hernández Díaz-Ambrona C, Mínguez MI, Semenov MA, Kersebaum KC, Nendel C, Specka X, Hoffmann H, Ewert F, Dambreville A, Martre P, Rodríguez L, Ruiz-Ramos M, Gaiser T, Höhn JG, Salo T, Ferrise R, Bindi M, Cammarano D, Schulman AH. Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:1291-1307. [PMID: 29245185 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2017] [Revised: 11/05/2017] [Accepted: 11/27/2017] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was -4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981-2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple-ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fulu Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Reimund P Rötter
- Department of Crop Sciences, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Georg-August-University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), Georg-August-University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - M Inés Mínguez
- AgSystems-CEIGRAM Research Centre for Agricultural and Environmental Risk Management-Technical, University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Kurt Christian Kersebaum
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Claas Nendel
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Xenia Specka
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Holger Hoffmann
- Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
- Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | | | | | - Lucía Rodríguez
- AgSystems-CEIGRAM Research Centre for Agricultural and Environmental Risk Management-Technical, University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Margarita Ruiz-Ramos
- AgSystems-CEIGRAM Research Centre for Agricultural and Environmental Risk Management-Technical, University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Thomas Gaiser
- Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jukka G Höhn
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tapio Salo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Firenze, Italy
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Firenze, Italy
| | | | - Alan H Schulman
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Biotechnology and Viikki Plant Science Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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8
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Brilli L, Bechini L, Bindi M, Carozzi M, Cavalli D, Conant R, Dorich CD, Doro L, Ehrhardt F, Farina R, Ferrise R, Fitton N, Francaviglia R, Grace P, Iocola I, Klumpp K, Léonard J, Martin R, Massad RS, Recous S, Seddaiu G, Sharp J, Smith P, Smith WN, Soussana JF, Bellocchi G. Review and analysis of strengths and weaknesses of agro-ecosystem models for simulating C and N fluxes. Sci Total Environ 2017; 598:445-470. [PMID: 28454025 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2016] [Revised: 03/21/2017] [Accepted: 03/22/2017] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Biogeochemical simulation models are important tools for describing and quantifying the contribution of agricultural systems to C sequestration and GHG source/sink status. The abundance of simulation tools developed over recent decades, however, creates a difficulty because predictions from different models show large variability. Discrepancies between the conclusions of different modelling studies are often ascribed to differences in the physical and biogeochemical processes incorporated in equations of C and N cycles and their interactions. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modelling agricultural (crop and grassland) systems. In order to carry out this study, we selected the range of biogeochemical models used by the CN-MIP consortium of FACCE-JPI (http://www.faccejpi.com): APSIM, CERES-EGC, DayCent, DNDC, DSSAT, EPIC, PaSim, RothC and STICS. In our analysis, these models were assessed for the quality and comprehensiveness of underlying processes related to pedo-climatic conditions and management practices, but also with respect to time and space of application, and for their accuracy in multiple contexts. Overall, it emerged that there is a possible impact of ill-defined pedo-climatic conditions in the unsatisfactory performance of the models (46.2%), followed by limitations in the algorithms simulating the effects of management practices (33.1%). The multiplicity of scales in both time and space is a fundamental feature, which explains the remaining weaknesses (i.e. 20.7%). Innovative aspects have been identified for future development of C and N models. They include the explicit representation of soil microbial biomass to drive soil organic matter turnover, the effect of N shortage on SOM decomposition, the improvements related to the production and consumption of gases and an adequate simulations of gas transport in soil. On these bases, the assessment of trends and gaps in the modelling approaches currently employed to represent biogeochemical cycles in crop and grassland systems appears an essential step for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lorenzo Brilli
- Università degli Studi di Firenze, Department of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences, 50144 Florence, Italy; IBIMET-CNR, Via Caproni 8, 50145 Firenze, Italy.
| | - Luca Bechini
- Università degli Studi di Milano, Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Milan, Italy
| | - Marco Bindi
- Università degli Studi di Firenze, Department of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences, 50144 Florence, Italy
| | - Marco Carozzi
- INRA, AgroParisTech, UMR1402 EcoSys, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon, France
| | - Daniele Cavalli
- Università degli Studi di Milano, Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Milan, Italy
| | - Richard Conant
- NREL, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | | | - Luca Doro
- Desertification Research Centre, Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy; Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Blackland Research & Extension Center, Temple, (TX), USA
| | | | - Roberta Farina
- CREA-RPS, Research Centre for the Soil-Plant System, Via della Navicella 2-4, 00184 Roma, Italy
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Università degli Studi di Firenze, Department of Agri-Food Production and Environmental Sciences, 50144 Florence, Italy
| | - Nuala Fitton
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, St Machar Drive, AB24 3UU Aberdeen, UK
| | - Rosa Francaviglia
- CREA-RPS, Research Centre for the Soil-Plant System, Via della Navicella 2-4, 00184 Roma, Italy
| | - Peter Grace
- Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Ileana Iocola
- Desertification Research Centre, Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | | | - Joël Léonard
- INRA, UR 1158 AgroImpact, site de Laon, F-02000 Barenton-Bugny, France
| | | | | | | | - Giovanna Seddaiu
- Desertification Research Centre, Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Joanna Sharp
- New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research, 7608 Lincoln, New Zealand
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, St Machar Drive, AB24 3UU Aberdeen, UK
| | - Ward N Smith
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0C6, Canada
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9
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Fleisher DH, Condori B, Quiroz R, Alva A, Asseng S, Barreda C, Bindi M, Boote KJ, Ferrise R, Franke AC, Govindakrishnan PM, Harahagazwe D, Hoogenboom G, Naresh Kumar S, Merante P, Nendel C, Olesen JE, Parker PS, Raes D, Raymundo R, Ruane AC, Stockle C, Supit I, Vanuytrecht E, Wolf J, Woli P. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:1258-1281. [PMID: 27387228 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2016] [Accepted: 06/19/2016] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- David H Fleisher
- Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA
| | - Bruno Condori
- Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA
| | - Roberto Quiroz
- Production Systems and the Environment, International Potato Center, Lima, Peru
| | - Ashok Alva
- Desert Agriculture and Ecosystem Program, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Safat, Kuwait
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Carolina Barreda
- Production Systems and the Environment, International Potato Center, Lima, Peru
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Kenneth J Boote
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Angelinus C Franke
- Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
| | | | - Dieudonne Harahagazwe
- Production Systems and the Environment, International Potato Center SSA, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India
| | - Paolo Merante
- Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Jorgen E Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
| | - Phillip S Parker
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Dirk Raes
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven University, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Rubi Raymundo
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
| | - Claudio Stockle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Iwan Supit
- Earth System Science and Climate Adaptive Land Management, Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Eline Vanuytrecht
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven University, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Joost Wolf
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Prem Woli
- AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
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10
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Ferrise R, Moriondo M, Trombi G, Miglietta F, Bindi M. Climate Change Impacts on Typical Mediterranean Crops and Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Cope With. Advances in Global Change Research 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-5772-1_4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
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