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Rettie FM, Gayler S, Weber TKD, Tesfaye K, Streck T. High-resolution CMIP6 climate projections for Ethiopia using the gridded statistical downscaling method. Sci Data 2023; 10:442. [PMID: 37438389 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02337-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023] Open
Abstract
High-resolution climate model projections for a range of emission scenarios are needed for designing regional and local adaptation strategies and planning in the context of climate change. To this end, the future climate simulations of global circulation models (GCMs) are the main sources of critical information. However, these simulations are not only coarse in resolution but also associated with biases and high uncertainty. To make the simulations useful for impact modeling at regional and local level, we utilized the bias correction constructed analogues with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ) statistical downscaling technique to produce a 10 km spatial resolution climate change projections database based on 16 CMIP6 GCMs under three emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The downscaling strategy was evaluated using a perfect sibling approach and detailed results are presented by taking two contrasting (the worst and best performing models) GCMs as a showcase. The evaluation results demonstrate that the downscaling approach substantially reduced model biases and generated higher resolution daily data compared to the original GCM outputs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fasil M Rettie
- Biogeophysics, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Hohenheim University, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany.
- Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Melkasa, Ethiopia.
| | - Sebastian Gayler
- Biogeophysics, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Hohenheim University, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Tobias K D Weber
- Biogeophysics, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Hohenheim University, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
- Soil Science Section, Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany
| | - Kindie Tesfaye
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Thilo Streck
- Biogeophysics, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Hohenheim University, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
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2
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Dueri S, Brown H, Asseng S, Ewert F, Webber H, George M, Craigie R, Guarin JR, Pequeno DNL, Stella T, Ahmed M, Alderman PD, Basso B, Berger AG, Mujica GB, Cammarano D, Chen Y, Dumont B, Rezaei EE, Fereres E, Ferrise R, Gaiser T, Gao Y, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hochman Z, Hoogenboom G, Kersebaum KC, Nendel C, Olesen JE, Padovan G, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Pullens JWM, Rodríguez A, Rötter RP, Ramos MR, Semenov MA, Senapati N, Siebert S, Srivastava AK, Stöckle C, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Wang E, Weber TKD, Xiao L, Zhao C, Zhao J, Zhao Z, Zhu Y, Martre P. Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment. J Exp Bot 2022; 73:5715-5729. [PMID: 35728801 PMCID: PMC9467659 DOI: 10.1093/jxb/erac221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sibylle Dueri
- LEPSE, Univ. Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Hamish Brown
- The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Department of Life Science Engineering, Digital Agriculture, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Heidi Webber
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
- Brandenburg University of Technology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Sciences, Cottbus, Germany
| | - Mike George
- The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Rob Craigie
- Foundation for Arable Research, Templeton, New Zealand
| | - Jose Rafael Guarin
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
| | - Diego N L Pequeno
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Mexico DF, Mexico
| | - Tommaso Stella
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Mukhtar Ahmed
- Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
- Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Umeå, Sweden
| | - Phillip D Alderman
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
- W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Andres G Berger
- National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA), Colonia, Uruguay
| | - Gennady Bracho Mujica
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Yi Chen
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
| | - Benjamin Dumont
- Plant Sciences Axis – Crop Science, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium
| | | | - Elias Fereres
- IAS-CSIC & DAUCO, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agriculture, food, environment and forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Thomas Gaiser
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Yujing Gao
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Zvi Hochman
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Kurt C Kersebaum
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Global Change Research Institute, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
- Global Change Research Institute, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
- Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jørgen E Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
- Global Change Research Institute, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Gloria Padovan
- Department of Agriculture, food, environment and forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | - Alfredo Rodríguez
- CEIGRAM, Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
| | - Reimund P Rötter
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Stefan Siebert
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Amit Kumar Srivastava
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Iwan Supit
- Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Peter Thorburn
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | | | - Liujun Xiao
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Chuang Zhao
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Jin Zhao
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhigan Zhao
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
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3
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Rettie FM, Gayler S, K. D. Weber T, Tesfaye K, Streck T. Climate change impact on wheat and maize growth in Ethiopia: A multi-model uncertainty analysis. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262951. [PMID: 35061854 PMCID: PMC8782302 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262951] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2021] [Accepted: 01/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Ethiopia’s economy is dominated by agriculture which is mainly rain-fed and subsistence. Climate change is expected to have an adverse impact particularly on crop production. Previous studies have shown large discrepancies in the magnitude and sometimes in the direction of the impact on crop production. We assessed the impact of climate change on growth and yield of maize and wheat in Ethiopia using a multi-crop model ensemble. The multi-model ensemble (n = 48) was set up using the agroecosystem modelling framework Expert-N. The framework is modular which facilitates combining different submodels for plant growth and soil processes. The multi-model ensemble was driven by climate change projections representing the mid of the century (2021–2050) from ten contrasting climate models downscaled to finer resolution. The contributions of different sources of uncertainty in crop yield prediction were quantified. The sensitivity of crop yield to elevated CO2, increased temperature, changes in precipitations and N fertilizer were also assessed. Our results indicate that grain yields were very sensitive to changes in [CO2], temperature and N fertilizer amounts where the responses were higher for wheat than maize. The response to change in precipitation was weak, which we attribute to the high water holding capacity of the soils due to high organic carbon contents at the study sites. This may provide the sufficient buffering capacity for extended time periods with low amounts of precipitation. Under the changing climate, wheat productivity will be a major challenge with a 36 to 40% reduction in grain yield by 2050 while the impact on maize was modest. A major part of the uncertainty in the projected impact could be attributed to differences in the crop growth models. A considerable fraction of the uncertainty could also be traced back to different soil water dynamics modeling approaches in the model ensemble, which is often ignored. Uncertainties varied among the studied crop species and cultivars as well. The study highlights significant impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Ethiopia whereby differences in crop growth models causes the large part of the uncertainties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fasil Mequanint Rettie
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
- Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Melkasa, Ethiopia
- * E-mail:
| | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Tobias K. D. Weber
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Kindie Tesfaye
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Thilo Streck
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
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Falconnier GN, Corbeels M, Boote KJ, Affholder F, Adam M, MacCarthy DS, Ruane AC, Nendel C, Whitbread AM, Justes É, Ahuja LR, Akinseye FM, Alou IN, Amouzou KA, Anapalli SS, Baron C, Basso B, Baudron F, Bertuzzi P, Challinor AJ, Chen Y, Deryng D, Elsayed ML, Faye B, Gaiser T, Galdos M, Gayler S, Gerardeaux E, Giner M, Grant B, Hoogenboom G, Ibrahim ES, Kamali B, Kersebaum KC, Kim SH, van der Laan M, Leroux L, Lizaso JI, Maestrini B, Meier EA, Mequanint F, Ndoli A, Porter CH, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Sida TS, Singh U, Smith WN, Srivastava A, Sinha S, Tao F, Thorburn PJ, Timlin D, Traore B, Twine T, Webber H. Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:5942-5964. [PMID: 32628332 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15261] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2019] [Revised: 05/19/2020] [Accepted: 06/22/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2 ]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Marc Corbeels
- AIDA, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
- CIMMYT, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | | | - Myriam Adam
- CIRAD, UMR AGAP, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
- AGAP, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
| | - Dilys S MacCarthy
- Soil and Irrigation Research Centre, School of Agriculture, College of Basic and Applied Science, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
| | - Alex C Ruane
- Climate Impacts Group, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Anthony M Whitbread
- International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Éric Justes
- PERSYST, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
| | | | - Folorunso M Akinseye
- International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Kano, Nigeria
| | - Isaac N Alou
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Kokou A Amouzou
- West Africa Program, African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI), Yamoussoukro, Cote d'Ivoire
| | | | - Christian Baron
- CIRAD, UMR TETIS, Montpellier, France
- TETIS, Univ Montpellier, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, IRSTEA, Montpellier, France
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | | | | | - Andrew J Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Yi Chen
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Delphine Deryng
- Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- NewClimate Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Maha L Elsayed
- MALR-ARC, Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Giza, Egypt
| | - Babacar Faye
- Crop Science Group, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Thomas Gaiser
- Crop Science Group, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Marcelo Galdos
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | | | - Michel Giner
- AIDA, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
| | - Brian Grant
- Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | | | - Esther S Ibrahim
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Bahareh Kamali
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | | | - Soo-Hyung Kim
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Michael van der Laan
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Louise Leroux
- AIDA, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
- CIRAD, UPR AIDA, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Jon I Lizaso
- CEIGRAM-Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSIAAB, Madrid, Spain
| | - Bernardo Maestrini
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Elizabeth A Meier
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Queensland Bioscience Precinct, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Fasil Mequanint
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | | | | | - Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Center Munich, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | | | - Upendra Singh
- International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development, Muscle Shoals, AL, USA
| | - Ward N Smith
- Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Amit Srivastava
- Crop Science Group, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Sumit Sinha
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Fulu Tao
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Peter J Thorburn
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Queensland Bioscience Precinct, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Dennis Timlin
- Crop Systems and Global Change Research Unit, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA
| | | | - Tracy Twine
- Department of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA
| | - Heidi Webber
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
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5
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Herberich MM, Gayler S, Anand M, Tielbörger K. Biomass–density relationships of plant communities deviate from the self‐thinning rule due to age structure and abiotic stress. OIKOS 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.07073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Maximiliane Marion Herberich
- Inst. for Evolution and Ecology, Dept of Biology, Univ. of Tübingen Auf der Morgenstelle 5 DE‐72076 Tübingen Germany
| | - Sebastian Gayler
- Biogeophysics, Inst. of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Univ. of Hohenheim Stuttgart Germany
| | - Madhur Anand
- Dept of Environmental Biology, The School of Environmental Sciences, Univ. of Guelph Guelph ON N1G 2W1 Canada
| | - Katja Tielbörger
- Inst. for Evolution and Ecology, Dept of Biology, Univ. of Tübingen Auf der Morgenstelle 5 DE‐72076 Tübingen Germany
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6
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Liu B, Martre P, Ewert F, Porter JR, Challinor AJ, Müller C, Ruane AC, Waha K, Thorburn PJ, Aggarwal PK, Ahmed M, Balkovič J, Basso B, Biernath C, Bindi M, Cammarano D, De Sanctis G, Dumont B, Espadafor M, Eyshi Rezaei E, Ferrise R, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Gao Y, Horan H, Hoogenboom G, Izaurralde RC, Jones CD, Kassie BT, Kersebaum KC, Klein C, Koehler AK, Maiorano A, Minoli S, Montesino San Martin M, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, O'Leary GJ, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Rötter RP, Semenov MA, Stöckle C, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Van der Velde M, Wallach D, Wang E, Webber H, Wolf J, Xiao L, Zhang Z, Zhao Z, Zhu Y, Asseng S. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:1428-1444. [PMID: 30536680 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2018] [Accepted: 11/24/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Liu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Pierre Martre
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - John R Porter
- Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark
- Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand
- Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Andy J Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
| | | | | | - Pramod K Aggarwal
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India
| | - Mukhtar Ahmed
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
- Department of agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Juraj Balkovič
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University East Lansing, East Lansing, Michigan
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
| | - Christian Biernath
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | | | - Benjamin Dumont
- Department AgroBioChem & TERRA Teaching and Research Center, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium
| | - Mónica Espadafor
- IAS-CSIC, Department of Agronomy, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
| | - Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Yujing Gao
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Heidi Horan
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Roberto C Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
- Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M Univ., Temple, Texas
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
| | - Belay T Kassie
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Kurt C Kersebaum
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Christian Klein
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Ann-Kristin Koehler
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Andrea Maiorano
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
- European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy
| | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Garry J O'Leary
- Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Vic., Australia
| | - Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | - Reimund P Rötter
- University of Göttingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
| | - Thilo Streck
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Iwan Supit
- Water Systems & Global Change Group and WENR (Water & Food), Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
| | | | | | - Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, Australia
| | - Heidi Webber
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Joost Wolf
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Liujun Xiao
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Zhao Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhigan Zhao
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, Australia
- Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
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7
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Asseng S, Martre P, Maiorano A, Rötter RP, O'Leary GJ, Fitzgerald GJ, Girousse C, Motzo R, Giunta F, Babar MA, Reynolds MP, Kheir AMS, Thorburn PJ, Waha K, Ruane AC, Aggarwal PK, Ahmed M, Balkovič J, Basso B, Biernath C, Bindi M, Cammarano D, Challinor AJ, De Sanctis G, Dumont B, Eyshi Rezaei E, Fereres E, Ferrise R, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Gao Y, Horan H, Hoogenboom G, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kassie BT, Kersebaum KC, Klein C, Koehler AK, Liu B, Minoli S, Montesino San Martin M, Müller C, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, Olesen JE, Palosuo T, Porter JR, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Semenov MA, Stöckle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Van der Velde M, Wallach D, Wang E, Webber H, Wolf J, Xiao L, Zhang Z, Zhao Z, Zhu Y, Ewert F. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:155-173. [PMID: 30549200 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Accepted: 09/06/2018] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.
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Affiliation(s)
- Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Pierre Martre
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
| | - Andrea Maiorano
- LEPSE, Université Montpellier INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
| | - Reimund P Rötter
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Garry J O'Leary
- Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia
| | - Glenn J Fitzgerald
- Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia
- Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Rosella Motzo
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy
| | - Francesco Giunta
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy
| | - M Ali Babar
- World Food Crops Breeding, Department of Agronomy, IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | | | - Ahmed M S Kheir
- Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt
| | | | - Katharina Waha
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
| | - Pramod K Aggarwal
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India
| | - Mukhtar Ahmed
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
- Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Juraj Balkovič
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
| | - Christian Biernath
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Marco Bindi
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Andrew J Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Collaborative Research Program from CGIAR and Future Earth on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
| | | | - Benjamin Dumont
- Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium
| | - Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Roberto Ferrise
- Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Yujing Gao
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Heidi Horan
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - R César Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
- Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, Texas
| | - Mohamed Jabloun
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
| | - Belay T Kassie
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | | | - Christian Klein
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Ann-Kristin Koehler
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Bing Liu
- Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India
| | - Claas Nendel
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | | | - Taru Palosuo
- Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - John R Porter
- Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark
- Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand
- Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | | | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
| | | | - Thilo Streck
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Iwan Supit
- Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
| | | | | | - Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Heidi Webber
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Joost Wolf
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Liujun Xiao
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhao Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhigan Zhao
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
- Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
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8
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Wallach D, Martre P, Liu B, Asseng S, Ewert F, Thorburn PJ, van Ittersum M, Aggarwal PK, Ahmed M, Basso B, Biernath C, Cammarano D, Challinor AJ, De Sanctis G, Dumont B, Eyshi Rezaei E, Fereres E, Fitzgerald GJ, Gao Y, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Girousse C, Hoogenboom G, Horan H, Izaurralde RC, Jones CD, Kassie BT, Kersebaum KC, Klein C, Koehler AK, Maiorano A, Minoli S, Müller C, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, O'Leary GJ, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Rötter RP, Semenov MA, Stöckle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Wolf J, Zhang Z. Multimodel ensembles improve predictions of crop-environment-management interactions. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:5072-5083. [PMID: 30055118 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Revised: 07/01/2018] [Accepted: 07/05/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles (MMEs). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e-mean) and median (e-median) often seem to predict quite well. However, few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors. We ask what is the predictive quality of e-mean and e-median, and how does that depend on the ensemble characteristics. Our empirical results are based on five MME studies applied to wheat, using different data sets but the same 25 crop models. We show that the ensemble predictors have quite high skill and are better than most and sometimes all individual models for most groups of environments and most response variables. Mean squared error of e-mean decreases monotonically with the size of the ensemble if models are added at random, but has a minimum at usually 2-6 models if best-fit models are added first. Our theoretical results describe the ensemble using four parameters: average bias, model effect variance, environment effect variance, and interaction variance. We show analytically that mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) of e-mean will always be smaller than MSEP averaged over models and will be less than MSEP of the best model if squared bias is less than the interaction variance. If models are added to the ensemble at random, MSEP of e-mean will decrease as the inverse of ensemble size, with a minimum equal to squared bias plus interaction variance. This minimum value is not necessarily small, and so it is important to evaluate the predictive quality of e-mean for each target population of environments. These results provide new information on the advantages of ensemble predictors, but also show their limitations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Pierre Martre
- UMR LEPSE, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France
| | - Bing Liu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Peter J Thorburn
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food Brisbane, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Martin van Ittersum
- Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Pramod K Aggarwal
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India
| | - Mukhtar Ahmed
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
- Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
| | - Christian Biernath
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | - Andrew J Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
| | | | - Benjamin Dumont
- Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium
| | - Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of, Bonn, Germany
- Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn, Germany
| | | | - Glenn J Fitzgerald
- Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Ballarat, Victoria, Australia
- Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | - Y Gao
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | | | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | | | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Heidi Horan
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food Brisbane, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Roberto C Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland
- Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, Texas
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, Texas
| | - Belay T Kassie
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
| | - Kurt C Kersebaum
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Christian Klein
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Ann-Kristin Koehler
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | | | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India
| | - Claas Nendel
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Garry J O'Leary
- Grains Innovation Park, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia
| | - Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | - Reimund P Rötter
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Mikhail A Semenov
- Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, UK
| | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
| | - Pierre Stratonovitch
- Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, UK
| | - Thilo Streck
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Iwan Supit
- Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
| | - Joost Wolf
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Zhao Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
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9
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Wang E, Martre P, Zhao Z, Ewert F, Maiorano A, Rötter RP, Kimball BA, Ottman MJ, Wall GW, White JW, Reynolds MP, Alderman PD, Aggarwal PK, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Cammarano D, Challinor AJ, De Sanctis G, Doltra J, Dumont B, Fereres E, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hoogenboom G, Hunt LA, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kersebaum KC, Koehler AK, Liu L, Müller C, Kumar SN, Nendel C, O'Leary G, Olesen JE, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Rezaei EE, Ripoche D, Ruane AC, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Stöckle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Waha K, Wallach D, Wang Z, Wolf J, Zhu Y, Asseng S. Author Correction: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions. Nat Plants 2017; 3:833. [PMID: 28955035 DOI: 10.1038/s41477-017-0032-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Nature Plants 3, 17102 (2017); published online 17 July 2017; corrected online 27 September 2017.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, 2601, Australia.
| | - Pierre Martre
- UMR LEPSE, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, 2 Place Viala, 34 060, Montpellier, France
| | - Zhigan Zhao
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, ACT, 2601, Australia
- College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Andrea Maiorano
- UMR LEPSE, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, 2 Place Viala, 34 060, Montpellier, France
| | - Reimund P Rötter
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Goettingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), 37077, Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Goettingen, Büsgenweg 1, 37077, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Bruce A Kimball
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, AZ, 85138, USA
| | - Michael J Ottman
- The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Gerard W Wall
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, AZ, 85138, USA
| | - Jeffrey W White
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, AZ, 85138, USA
| | - Matthew P Reynolds
- Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Apdo, 06600, Mexico, D.F, Mexico
| | - Phillip D Alderman
- Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Apdo, 06600, Mexico, D.F, Mexico
| | - Pramod K Aggarwal
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), New Delhi, 110012, India
| | - Jakarat Anothai
- AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University, Prosser, WA, 99350-8694, USA
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA
| | - Christian Biernath
- Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Neuherberg, 85764, Germany
| | - Davide Cammarano
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Andrew J Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS29JT, UK
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Km 17, Recta Cali-Palmira Apartado Aéreo, 6713, Cali, Colombia
| | - Giacomo De Sanctis
- GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Via Carlo Magno, 1A, 43126, Parma, Italy
| | - Jordi Doltra
- Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA), 39600, Muriedas, Spain
| | - Benjamin Dumont
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA
| | - Elias Fereres
- Dep. Agronomia, University of Cordoba, Apartado 3048, 14080, Cordoba, Spain
- IAS-CSIC, Cordoba, 14080, Spain
| | - Margarita Garcia-Vila
- Dep. Agronomia, University of Cordoba, Apartado 3048, 14080, Cordoba, Spain
- IAS-CSIC, Cordoba, 14080, Spain
| | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University, Prosser, WA, 99350-8694, USA
| | - Leslie A Hunt
- Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Roberto C Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
- Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, TX, 76502, USA
| | - Mohamed Jabloun
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, 8830, Tjele, Denmark
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Kurt C Kersebaum
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Ann-Kristin Koehler
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS29JT, UK
| | - Leilei Liu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210095, China
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, 110 012, India
| | - Claas Nendel
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Garry O'Leary
- Department of Economic Development, Landscape & Water Sciences, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Horsham, 3400, Australia
| | - Jørgen E Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, 8830, Tjele, Denmark
| | - Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Neuherberg, 85764, Germany
| | - Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany
| | | | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Mikhail A Semenov
- Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK
| | - Iurii Shcherbak
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA
| | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, 99164-6120, USA
| | - Pierre Stratonovitch
- Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK
| | - Thilo Streck
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Iwan Supit
- PPS and WSG & CALM, Wageningen University, 6700AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790, Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Peter Thorburn
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, QLD, 4067, Australia
| | - Katharina Waha
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Daniel Wallach
- INRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR), 31 326, Castanet-Tolosan, France
| | - Zhimin Wang
- College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Joost Wolf
- PPS and WSG & CALM, Wageningen University, 6700AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210095, China
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
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Wang E, Martre P, Zhao Z, Ewert F, Maiorano A, Rötter RP, Kimball BA, Ottman MJ, Wall GW, White JW, Reynolds MP, Alderman PD, Aggarwal PK, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Cammarano D, Challinor AJ, De Sanctis G, Doltra J, Fereres E, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hoogenboom G, Hunt LA, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kersebaum KC, Koehler AK, Liu L, Müller C, Kumar SN, Nendel C, O'Leary G, Olesen JE, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Rezaei EE, Ripoche D, Ruane AC, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Stöckle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Waha K, Wallach D, Wang Z, Wolf J, Zhu Y, Asseng S. Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions. Nat Plants 2017; 3:17125. [PMID: 28770816 DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102.
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Wang E, Martre P, Zhao Z, Ewert F, Maiorano A, Rötter RP, Kimball BA, Ottman MJ, Wall GW, White JW, Reynolds MP, Alderman PD, Aggarwal PK, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Cammarano D, Challinor AJ, De Sanctis G, Doltra J, Dumont B, Fereres E, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hoogenboom G, Hunt LA, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kersebaum KC, Koehler AK, Liu L, Müller C, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, O'Leary G, Olesen JE, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Eyshi Rezaei E, Ripoche D, Ruane AC, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Stöckle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn P, Waha K, Wallach D, Wang Z, Wolf J, Zhu Y, Asseng S. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions. Nat Plants 2017; 3:17102. [PMID: 28714956 DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2016] [Accepted: 06/05/2017] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enli Wang
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Pierre Martre
- UMR LEPSE, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, 2 Place Viala, 34 060 Montpellier, France
| | - Zhigan Zhao
- College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Black Mountain, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Andrea Maiorano
- UMR LEPSE, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, 2 Place Viala, 34 060 Montpellier, France
| | - Reimund P Rötter
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Goettingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), 37077 Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Goettingen, Büsgenweg 1, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Bruce A Kimball
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona 85138, USA
| | - Michael J Ottman
- The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
| | - Gerard W Wall
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona 85138, USA
| | - Jeffrey W White
- USDA, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona 85138, USA
| | - Matthew P Reynolds
- Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Apdo, 06600 Mexico, D.F, Mexico
| | - Phillip D Alderman
- Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Apdo, 06600 Mexico, D.F, Mexico
| | - Pramod K Aggarwal
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), New Delhi 110012, India
| | - Jakarat Anothai
- AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University, Prosser, Washington 99350-8694, USA
| | - Bruno Basso
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan 48823, USA
| | - Christian Biernath
- Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Neuherberg, 85764, Germany
| | - Davide Cammarano
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA
| | - Andrew J Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS29JT, UK
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Km 17, Recta Cali-Palmira Apartado Aéreo 6713, Cali, Colombia
| | - Giacomo De Sanctis
- GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Via Carlo Magno, 1A, 43126 Parma, Italy
| | - Jordi Doltra
- Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA), 39600 Muriedas, Spain
| | | | - Elias Fereres
- Dep. Agronomia, University of Cordoba, Apartado 3048, 14080 Cordoba, Spain
- IAS-CSIC, Cordoba 14080, Spain
| | - Margarita Garcia-Vila
- Dep. Agronomia, University of Cordoba, Apartado 3048, 14080 Cordoba, Spain
- IAS-CSIC, Cordoba 14080, Spain
| | - Sebastian Gayler
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University, Prosser, Washington 99350-8694, USA
| | - Leslie A Hunt
- Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Roberto C Izaurralde
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
- Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, Texas 76502, USA
| | - Mohamed Jabloun
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, 8830 Tjele, Denmark
| | - Curtis D Jones
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
| | - Kurt C Kersebaum
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Ann-Kristin Koehler
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS29JT, UK
| | - Leilei Liu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Soora Naresh Kumar
- Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi 110 012, India
| | - Claas Nendel
- Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Garry O'Leary
- Department of Economic Development, Landscape &Water Sciences, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Horsham 3400, Australia
| | - Jørgen E Olesen
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, 8830 Tjele, Denmark
| | - Taru Palosuo
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eckart Priesack
- Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Neuherberg, 85764, Germany
| | - Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany
| | | | - Alex C Ruane
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USA
| | - Mikhail A Semenov
- Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
| | - Iurii Shcherbak
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan 48823, USA
| | - Claudio Stöckle
- Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington 99164-6120, USA
| | - Pierre Stratonovitch
- Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK
| | - Thilo Streck
- Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Iwan Supit
- PPS and WSG &CALM, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Fulu Tao
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Peter Thorburn
- CSIRO Agriculture and Food, St Lucia, Queensland 4067, Australia
| | - Katharina Waha
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Daniel Wallach
- INRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR), 31 326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
| | - Zhimin Wang
- College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Joost Wolf
- PPS and WSG &CALM, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Yan Zhu
- National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China
| | - Senthold Asseng
- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA
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Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P, Rötter RP, Lobell DB, Cammarano D, Kimball BA, Ottman MJ, Wall GW, White JW, Reynolds MP, Alderman PD, Prasad PVV, Aggarwal PK, Anothai J, Basso B, Biernath C, Challinor AJ, De Sanctis G, Doltra J, Fereres E, Garcia-Vila M, Gayler S, Hoogenboom G, Hunt LA, Izaurralde RC, Jabloun M, Jones CD, Kersebaum KC, Koehler AK, Müller C, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, O’Leary G, Olesen JE, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Eyshi Rezaei E, Ruane AC, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Stöckle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Thorburn PJ, Waha K, Wang E, Wallach D, Wolf J, Zhao Z, Zhu Y. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Clim Change 2015; 5:143-147. [PMID: 0 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 528] [Impact Index Per Article: 58.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2014] [Accepted: 11/18/2014] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
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Martre P, Wallach D, Asseng S, Ewert F, Jones JW, Rötter RP, Boote KJ, Ruane AC, Thorburn PJ, Cammarano D, Hatfield JL, Rosenzweig C, Aggarwal PK, Angulo C, Basso B, Bertuzzi P, Biernath C, Brisson N, Challinor AJ, Doltra J, Gayler S, Goldberg R, Grant RF, Heng L, Hooker J, Hunt LA, Ingwersen J, Izaurralde RC, Kersebaum KC, Müller C, Kumar SN, Nendel C, O'leary G, Olesen JE, Osborne TM, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Steduto P, Stöckle CO, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Travasso M, Waha K, White JW, Wolf J. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:911-25. [PMID: 25330243 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2014] [Revised: 08/07/2014] [Accepted: 09/25/2014] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Martre
- INRA, UMR1095 Genetics, Diversity and Ecophysiology of Cereals (GDEC), 5 chemin de Beaulieu, F-63 100, Clermont-Ferrand, France; Blaise Pascal University, UMR1095 GDEC, F-63 170, Aubière, France
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Bassu S, Brisson N, Durand JL, Boote K, Lizaso J, Jones JW, Rosenzweig C, Ruane AC, Adam M, Baron C, Basso B, Biernath C, Boogaard H, Conijn S, Corbeels M, Deryng D, De Sanctis G, Gayler S, Grassini P, Hatfield J, Hoek S, Izaurralde C, Jongschaap R, Kemanian AR, Kersebaum KC, Kim SH, Kumar NS, Makowski D, Müller C, Nendel C, Priesack E, Pravia MV, Sau F, Shcherbak I, Tao F, Teixeira E, Timlin D, Waha K. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Glob Chang Biol 2014; 20:2301-20. [PMID: 24395589 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 149] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2013] [Accepted: 12/02/2013] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simona Bassu
- Unité d'Agronomie, INRA-AgroParisTech, BP 01, Thiverval-Grignon, 78850, France
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Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL, Ruane AC, Boote KJ, Thorburn PJ, Rötter RP, Cammarano D, Brisson N, Basso B, Martre P, Aggarwal PK, Angulo C, Bertuzzi P, Biernath C, Challinor AJ, Doltra J, Gayler S, Goldberg R, Grant R, Heng L, Hooker J, Hunt LA, Ingwersen J, Izaurralde RC, Kersebaum KC, Müller C, Naresh Kumar S, Nendel C, O’Leary G, Olesen JE, Osborne TM, Palosuo T, Priesack E, Ripoche D, Semenov MA, Shcherbak I, Steduto P, Stöckle C, Stratonovitch P, Streck T, Supit I, Tao F, Travasso M, Waha K, Wallach D, White JW, Williams JR, Wolf J. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Clim Change 2013. [PMID: 0 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 267] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
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Matyssek R, Gayler S, Castell WZ, Oßwald W, Ernst D, Pretzsch H, Schnyder H, Munch JC. Predictability of Plant Resource Allocation: New Theory Needed? ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-30645-7_19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/20/2023]
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Priesack E, Gayler S, Rötzer T, Seifert T, Pretzsch H. Mechanistic Modelling of Soil–Plant–Atmosphere Systems. Growth and Defence in Plants 2012. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-30645-7_15] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/10/2023]
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Gayler S, Grams TEE, Heller W, Treutter D, Priesack E. A dynamical model of environmental effects on allocation to carbon-based secondary compounds in juvenile trees. Ann Bot 2008; 101:1089-98. [PMID: 17693454 PMCID: PMC2710266 DOI: 10.1093/aob/mcm169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Patterns and variations in concentration of carbon-based secondary compounds in plant tissues have been explained by means of different complementary and, in some cases, contradictory plant defence hypotheses for more than 20 years. These hypotheses are conceptual models which consider environmental impacts on plant internal demands. In the present study, a mathematical model is presented, which converts and integrates the concepts of the 'Growth-Differentiation Balance' hypothesis and the 'Protein Competition' model into a dynamic plant growth model, that was tested with concentration data of polyphenols in leaves of juvenile apple, beech and spruce trees. The modelling approach is part of the plant growth model PLATHO that considers simultaneously different environmental impacts on the most important physiological processes of plants. METHODS The modelling approach for plant internal resource allocation is based on a priority scheme assuming that growth processes have priority over allocation to secondary compounds and that growth-related metabolism is more strongly affected by nitrogen deficiency than defence-related secondary metabolism. KEY RESULTS It is shown that the model can reproduce the effect of nitrogen fertilization on allocation patterns in apple trees and the effects of elevated CO(2) and competition in juvenile beech and spruce trees. The analysis of model behaviour reveals that large fluctuations in plant internal availability of carbon and nitrogen are possible within a single vegetation period. Furthermore, the model displays a non-linear allocation behaviour to carbon-based secondary compounds. CONCLUSIONS The simulation results corroborate the underlying assumptions of the presented modelling approach for resource partitioning between growth-related primary metabolism and defence-related secondary metabolism. Thus, the dynamical modelling approach, which considers variable source and sink strengths of plant internal resources within different phenological growth stages, presents a successful translation of existing concepts into a dynamic mathematical model.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Gayler
- Institute of Soil Ecology, GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany.
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Gayler S, Grams TEE, Kozovits AR, Winkler JB, Luedemann G, Priesack E. Analysis of competition effects in mono- and mixed cultures of juvenile beech and spruce by means of the plant growth simulation model PLATHO. Plant Biol (Stuttg) 2006; 8:503-14. [PMID: 16906487 DOI: 10.1055/s-2006-923979] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Inter- and intra-specific competition between plants for external resources is a critical process for plant growth in natural and managed ecosystems. We present a new approach to simulate competition for the resources light, water, and nitrogen between individual plants within a canopy. This approach was incorporated in a process-oriented plant growth simulation model. The concept of modelling competition is based on competition coefficients calculated from the overlap of occupied crown and soil volumes of each plant individual with the occupied volumes of its four nearest neighbours. The model was parameterised with data from a two-year phytotron experiment with juvenile beech and spruce trees growing in mono- and mixed cultures. For testing the model, an independent data set from this experiment and data from a second phytotron experiment with mixed cultures were used. The model was applied to analyse the consequences of start conditions and plant density on plant-plant competition. In both experiments, spruce dominated beech in mixed cultures. Based on model simulations, we postulate a large influence of start conditions and stand density on the outcome of the competition between the species. When both species have similar heights at the time of canopy closure, the model suggests a greater morphological plasticity of beech compared with spruce to be the crucial mechanism for competitiveness in mixed canopies. Similar to the experiment, in the model greater plasticity was a disadvantage for beech leading to it being outcompeted by the more persistent spruce.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Gayler
- Institute of Soil Ecology, GSF--National Research Center for Environment and Health, Ingolstädter Landstrasse 1, 85764 Neuherberg, Germany.
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Schroll R, Becher HH, Dörfler U, Gayler S, Grundmann S, Hartmann HP, Ruoss J. Quantifying the effect of soil moisture on the aerobic microbial mineralization of selected pesticides in different soils. Environ Sci Technol 2006; 40:3305-12. [PMID: 16749698 DOI: 10.1021/es052205j] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
A standardized quantitative approach was developed to reliably elucidate the effect of increasing soil moisture on pesticide mineralization. The mineralization of three aerobically degradable and chemically different 14C-labeled pesticides (isoproturon, benazolin-ethyl, and glyphosate) was studied under controlled conditions in the laboratory at an identical soil density of 1.3 g cm(-3). The agricultural soils used are characterized by (i) large variations in soil texture (sand content 4-88%) and organic matter content (0.97-2.70% org. C), (ii) fairly diverse soil-water retention curves, and (iii) differing pH values. We quantified the effect of soil moisture on mineralization of pesticides and found that (i) at soil water potential < or = -20 MPa minimal pesticide mineralization occurred; (ii) a linear correlation (P < 0.0001) exists between increasing soil moisture (within a soil water potential range of -20 and -0.015 MPa), and increased relative pesticide mineralization; (iii) optimum pesticide mineralization was obtained at a soil water potential of -0.015 MPa, and (iv) when soil moisture approximated water holding capacity, pesticide mineralization was considerably reduced. As both selected pesticides and soils varied to a large degree, we propose that the correlation observed in this study may be also valid in the case of aerobic degradation of other native and artificial organic compounds in soils.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reiner Schroll
- GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health Institute of Soil Ecology, Ingolstädter Landstrasse 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany.
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Lötscher M, Gayler S. Contribution of current photosynthates to root respiration of non-nodulated Medicago sativa: effects of light and nitrogen supply. Plant Biol (Stuttg) 2005; 7:601-10. [PMID: 16388463 DOI: 10.1055/s-2005-872881] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
The effects of light (PFD) and nitrogen (N) supply on root respiration of new C (currently assimilated carbon, R(new)) and old C ( R(old)) were analysed in non-nodulated Medicago sativa. Plants were pre-treated with high/low PFD and high/low N supply with a regular 16/8 h light/dark cycle. Five to eight weeks after planting current photosynthates were labelled with (13)C and their contribution to root respiration was continuously measured during a 24 h day/night cycle. PFD conditions during labelling were either those of the pre-treatments (control, 25 or 6 mol m(-2) d(-1)) or, for high PFD plants, 6 mol m(-2) d(-1) by shortening the photoperiod or reducing irradiance. The fraction of new C in the respiratory CO2 increased during the light period, but remained constant in the dark period. In control plants, R(new) contributed 40 % to the daily root respiration in high PFD/high N conditions. Continuously low PFD increased (50 %) and low N decreased (26 %) the contribution of R(new). Exposing plants from high PFD pre-treatments to a short photoperiod or to low PFD stimulated R(old), indicating mobilisation of reserve C. This stimulation was more pronounced in plants with high N supply than in those with low N supply. Comparison with other legumes suggested that R(new) in root respiration was mainly defined by the ratio between the assimilatory capacity of the shoots and the maintenance costs of roots with a short-term capacity of buffering respiratory demand by mobilisation of reserves in situations of fluctuating PFD.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Lötscher
- Plant Science Department, Technische Universität München, Am Hochanger 1, 85350 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany.
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Gayler S, Trapp S, Matthies M, Schroll R, Behrendt H. Uptake of terbuthylazine and its medium polar metabolites into maize plants. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 1995; 2:98-103. [PMID: 24234538 DOI: 10.1007/bf02986726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
The uptake of terbuthylazine and its medium polar metabolites into maize plants under outdoor conditions is investigated. For this purpose, a dynamical fate model consisting of soil, plant and air is developed. The model calculations are compared with experimental results of outdoor lysimeter tests, carried out with(14)C-labelled herbicide applied to sandy agricultural soil at a single application rate of 890 g/ha. Approximately 0.3 % of the applied activity remains in all the plants after the vegetation period. The model predicts that about three times that amount is volatilized from the plants into the air. Activity uptaken from soil and volatilized from plant surface into air is predominately associated with metabolites. During the whole vegetation period the fraction of unchanged terbuthylazine in the plants is very small (less than 1 % of the extractable activity).
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Affiliation(s)
- S Gayler
- Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, D-49069, Osnabrück, Germany
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