Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5, particularly clade 2.3.4.4, has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, this mechanism has not been quantified using bird movement data from different species, and the timing and location of exposure of different species is unclear. We sought to explore these questions through phylodynamic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences of clade 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1. First, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing exposed bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 clade 2.3.4.4 lineage movements, including relatively under-discussed orders. Our study provides a phylodynamic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behavior and life history in avian influenza studies.

The evolutionary history of hepaciviruses

In the search for natural reservoirs of hepatitis C virus (HCV), a broad diversity of non-human viruses within the Hepacivirus genus has been uncovered. However, the evolutionary dynamics that shaped the diversity and timescale of hepaciviruses evolution remain elusive. To gain further insights into the origins and evolution of this genus, we screened a large dataset of wild mammal samples (n = 1,672) from Africa and Asia, and generated 34 full-length hepacivirus genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of these data together with publicly available genomes emphasizes the importance of rodents as hepacivirus hosts and we identify 13 rodent species and 3 rodent genera (in Cricetidae and Muridae families) as novel hosts of hepaciviruses. Through co-phylogenetic analyses, we demonstrate that hepacivirus diversity has been affected by cross-species transmission events against the backdrop of detectable signal of virus-host co-divergence in the deep evolutionary history. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic multidimensional scaling approach, we explore the extent to which host relatedness and geographic distances have structured present-day hepacivirus diversity. Our results provide evidence for a substantial structuring of mammalian hepacivirus diversity by host as well as geography, with a somewhat more irregular diffusion process in geographic space. Finally, using a mechanistic model that accounts for substitution saturation, we provide the first formal estimates of the timescale of hepacivirus evolution and estimate the origin of the genus to be about 22 million years ago. Our results offer a comprehensive overview of the micro- and macroevolutionary processes that have shaped hepacivirus diversity and enhance our understanding of the long-term evolution of the Hepacivirus genus.

Emergence of an early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the United States

The emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States (U.S.) went largely undetected due to inadequate testing. New Orleans experienced one of the earliest and fastest accelerating outbreaks, coinciding with Mardi Gras. To gain insight into the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and how large-scale events accelerate transmission, we sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Louisiana. We show that SARS-CoV-2 in Louisiana had limited diversity compared to other U.S. states and that one introduction of SARS-CoV-2 led to almost all of the early transmission in Louisiana. By analyzing mobility and genomic data, we show that SARS-CoV-2 was already present in New Orleans before Mardi Gras, and the festival dramatically accelerated transmission. Our study provides an understanding of how superspreading during large-scale events played a key role during the early outbreak in the U.S. and can greatly accelerate epidemics.

Emergence of an early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the United States

The emergence of the early COVID-19 epidemic in the United States (U.S.) went largely undetected, due to a lack of adequate testing and mitigation efforts. The city of New Orleans, Louisiana experienced one of the earliest and fastest accelerating outbreaks, coinciding with the annual Mardi Gras festival, which went ahead without precautions. To gain insight into the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and how large, crowded events may have accelerated early transmission, we sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Louisiana. We show that SARS-CoV-2 in Louisiana initially had limited sequence diversity compared to other U.S. states, and that one successful introduction of SARS-CoV-2 led to almost all of the early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Louisiana. By analyzing mobility and genomic data, we show that SARS-CoV-2 was already present in New Orleans before Mardi Gras and that the festival dramatically accelerated transmission, eventually leading to secondary localized COVID-19 epidemics throughout the Southern U.S.. Our study provides an understanding of how superspreading during large-scale events played a key role during the early outbreak in the U.S. and can greatly accelerate COVID-19 epidemics on a local and regional scale.

A63 Quantifying the dynamics of evolutionary rates through time

The availability of evolutionary rate estimates in recent years led to the observation that they may depend on the time-scale on which they are measured. Specifically, RNA virus evolutionary rates are frequently estimated to be low towards the past and high towards the present. This time-dependent rate phenomenon (TDRP) has important implications for evolutionary studies as it could severely bias divergence time estimates. While recent studies are providing insights into the relationship between viral evolutionary rate and time, formal probabilistic models to draw inference under TDRP scenarios remain lacking. Here, we adopt epoch-modelling to develop a Bayesian model of discrete rate changes through time in an unknown evolutionary history and combine this with a log-linear parameterization of rates as a function of times in the past. We provide an implementation for nucleotide substitution rates as well as for nonsynonymous rates change in a codon substitution model. Using a foamy virus dataset for which internal node calibrations can be applied based on host-virus co-divergence, we estimate a significant decline in evolutionary rates as a function of time into the past for nucleotide substitutions as well as for non-synonymous substitutions in a codon model. We also estimate a deep evolutionary history for primate Lentiviruses by combining an HIV-1 group M node calibration and a biogeographic calibration for viruses in drill monkeys in the TDRP model. Our analyses lead to the conclusion that studies of evolutionary timescales require a reconsideration of substitution rates, in either codon and nucleotide substitution model, as a dynamic feature of molecular evolution.

Metagenomic sequencing at the epicenter of the Nigeria 2018 Lassa fever outbreak

The 2018 Nigerian Lassa fever season saw the largest ever recorded upsurge of cases, raising concerns over the emergence of a strain with increased transmission rate. To understand the molecular epidemiology of this upsurge, we performed, for the first time at the epicenter of an unfolding outbreak, metagenomic nanopore sequencing directly from patient samples, an approach dictated by the highly variable genome of the target pathogen. Genomic data and phylogenetic reconstructions were communicated immediately to Nigerian authorities and the World Health Organization to inform the public health response. Real-time analysis of 36 genomes and subsequent confirmation using all 120 samples sequenced in the country of origin revealed extensive diversity and phylogenetic intermingling with strains from previous years, suggesting independent zoonotic transmission events and thus allaying concerns of an emergent strain or extensive human-to-human transmission.

Erratum: Whole genome analysis of local Kenyan and global sequences unravels the epidemiological and molecular evolutionary dynamics of RSV genotype ON1 strains

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/ve/vey027.][This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/ve/vey027.].

Whole genome analysis of local Kenyan and global sequences unravels the epidemiological and molecular evolutionary dynamics of RSV genotype ON1 strains

The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) group A variant with the 72-nucleotide duplication in the G gene, genotype ON1, was first detected in Kilifi in 2012 and has almost completely replaced circulating genotype GA2 strains. This replacement suggests some fitness advantage of ON1 over the GA2 viruses in Kilifi, and might be accompanied by important genomic substitutions in ON1 viruses. Close observation of such a new virus genotype introduction over time provides an opportunity to better understand the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of the pathogen. We have generated and analysed 184 RSV-A whole-genome sequences (WGSs) from Kilifi (Kenya) collected between 2011 and 2016, the first ON1 genomes from Africa and the largest collection globally from a single location. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that RSV-A circulation in this coastal Kenya location is characterized by multiple introductions of viral lineages from diverse origins but with varied success in local transmission. We identified signature amino acid substitutions between ON1 and GA2 viruses’ surface proteins (G and F), polymerase (L), and matrix M2-1 proteins, some of which were positively selected, and thereby provide an enhanced picture of RSV-A diversity. Furthermore, five of the eleven RSV open reading frames (ORFs) (G, F, L, N, and P) formed distinct phylogenetic clusters for the two genotypes. This might suggest that coding regions outside of the most frequently studied G ORF also play a role in the adaptation of RSV to host populations, with the alternative possibility that some of the substitutions are neutral and provide no selective advantage. Our analysis provides insight into the epidemiological processes that define RSV spread, highlights the genetic substitutions that characterize emerging strains, and demonstrates the utility of large-scale WGS in molecular epidemiological studies.

Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes species mosquitos highlights a need to monitor the risk of reestablishment of urban YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial, and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age and sex distribution of human cases is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission and spatial expansion toward previously YFV-free areas, followed by a rise in viral spillover to humans in late 2016. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real time that will contribute to a global strategy to eliminate future YFV epidemics.

Distinguishable epidemics of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 in different hosts

The global epidemic of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 provides an important example, both in terms of the agent and its resistance, of a widely disseminated zoonotic pathogen. Here, with an unprecedented national collection of isolates collected contemporaneously from humans and animals and including a sample of internationally derived isolates, we have used whole-genome sequencing to dissect the phylogenetic associations of the bacterium and its antimicrobial resistance genes through the course of an epidemic. Contrary to current tenets supporting a single homogeneous epidemic, we demonstrate that the bacterium and its resistance genes were largely maintained within animal and human populations separately and that there was limited transmission, in either direction. We also show considerable variation in the resistance profiles, in contrast to the largely stable bacterial core genome, which emphasizes the critical importance of integrated genotypic data sets in understanding the ecology of bacterial zoonoses and antimicrobial resistance.

HBV subgenotype misclassification expands quasi-subgenotype A3

Recently, we proposed a new classification for 'subgenotype A' of hepatitis B virus (HBV), in which the novel 'quasi-subgenotype A3' group comprising HBV 'subgenotype A3', 'tentative A4', and A5 was introduced. Newly 'Tentative subgenotype A7' strains from Cameroon were introduced by Hubschen et al. However, our meticulous phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that these isolates should also be classified into 'quasi-subgenotype A3'. Such misclassification can be avoided by following established principles for HBV subgenotyping. Moreover, their close evolutionary relationship with A3 highlights our hypothesis that geographical origin may be an important factor in further classification of HBV subgenotypes.

Evidence for a complex mosaic genome pattern in a full-length hepatitis C virus sequence

The genome of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) exhibits a high genetic variability. This remarkable heterogeneity is mainly attributed to the gradual accumulation of mutational changes, whereas the contribution of recombination events to the evolution of HCV remains controversial so far. While performing phylogenetic analyses including a large number of sequences deposited in the GenBank, we encountered a full-length HCV sequence (AY651061) that showed evidence for inter-subtype recombination and was, therefore, subjected to a detailed analysis of its molecular structure. The obtained results indicated that AY651061 does not represent a "simple" HCV 1c isolate, but a complex 1a/1c mosaic genome, showing five putative breakpoints in the core to NS3 regions. To our knowledge, this is the first report on a mosaic HCV full-length sequence with multiple breakpoints. The molecular structure of AY651061 is reminiscent of complex homologous recombinant variants occurring among other members of the flaviviridae family, e.g. GB virus C, dengue virus, and Japanese encephalitis virus. Our finding of a mosaic HCV sequence may have important implications for many fields of current HCV research which merit careful consideration.

The epidemic history of hepatitis C among injecting drug users in Flanders, Belgium

We employed recently developed statistical methods to explore the epidemic behaviour of hepatitis C subtype 1a and subtype 3a among injecting drug users (IDUs) in Flanders, Belgium, using new gene sequence data sampled among two geographically distinct populations of IDUs. First the extent of hepatitis C transmission across regions/countries was studied through calculation of association indices. It was shown that viral exchange had occurred between both populations in Flanders as well as across international borders. Furthermore, evidence was found suggestive of subtypes 1a and 3a predominantly circulating in subpopulations of Flemish IDUs, exhibiting different degrees of travelling/migration behaviour. Secondly, through coalescent-based analysis the viral epidemic history of the hepatitis C subtype 1a and 3a epidemics was inferred. Evidence was found for different dynamic forces driving both epidemics. Moreover, results suggested that the hepatitis C subtype 3a epidemic has reached a steady state, while the hepatitis C 1a epidemic has not, which therefore might become the predominant subtype among IDUs.

Estimation of an in vivo fitness landscape experienced by HIV-1 under drug selective pressure useful for prediction of drug resistance evolution during treatment

MOTIVATION

HIV-1 antiviral resistance is a major cause of antiviral treatment failure. The in vivo fitness landscape experienced by the virus in presence of treatment could in principle be used to determine both the susceptibility of the virus to the treatment and the genetic barrier to resistance. We propose a method to estimate this fitness landscape from cross-sectional clinical genetic sequence data of different subtypes, by reverse engineering the required selective pressure for HIV-1 sequences obtained from treatment naive patients, to evolve towards sequences obtained from treated patients. The method was evaluated for recovering 10 random fictive selective pressures in simulation experiments, and for modeling the selective pressure under treatment with the protease inhibitor nelfinavir.

RESULTS

The estimated fitness function under nelfinavir treatment considered fitness contributions of 114 mutations at 48 sites. Estimated fitness correlated significantly with the in vitro resistance phenotype in 519 matched genotype-phenotype pairs (R(2) = 0.47 (0.41 - 0.54)) and variation in predicted evolution under nelfinavir selective pressure correlated significantly with observed in vivo evolution during nelfinavir treatment for 39 mutations (with FDR = 0.05).

AVAILABILITY

The software is available on request from the authors, and data sets are available from http://jose.med.kuleuven.be/~kdforc0/nfv-fitness-data/.

Full-length HIV type 1 genome analysis showing evidence for HIV type 1 transmission from a nonprogressor to two recipients who progressed to AIDS

Epidemiologically-linked HIV-1 transmission cohorts serve as excellent models to study HIV disease progression. The actual relationship between viral variability and HIV disease outcome can be extrapolated only through such rare epidemiologically linked HIV-1-infected cohorts. We present here a cohort of three patients with the source termed donor A (a nonprogressor) and two recipients B and C. Both recipients acquired HIV through blood transfusion from donor A and have progressed to AIDS. By analyzing 15 near full-length HIV- 1 genomes (8.7 kb each genome) from longitudinally collected peripheral blood cell samples (four time points for patient A, four for patient B, and seven from patient C), we were able to demonstrate transmission of HIV from donor A and epidemiologic linkage among members A, B, and C after 10 years of HIV infection. These analyses are novel in demonstrating that HIV-1-infected nonprogressing individuals bear the potential to transmit HIV-1 variants and that HIV variants, which led to a benign disease in a nonprogressor donor, were able to cause disease in other individuals. Overall, these studies highlight the utility of full genome sequencing in establishing epidemiologic linkage in a chronically infected HIV cohort after 10 years of initial infection.

Cyclorraphan yolk proteins and lepidopteran minor yolk proteins originate from two unrelated lipase families

Vitellogenins, cyclorraphan yolk proteins and lepidopteran minor yolk proteins are three classes of female-specific proteins that serve as an embryonic nutritional store. Similarity to vertebrate lipid-binding proteins was established for vitellogenins and yolk proteins, vitellogenins being related to apolipoprotein B and yolk proteins to lipases. Recently, similarity between yolk proteins and minor yolk proteins was reported and it was suggested that yolk proteins are more related to minor yolk proteins than to vertebrate lipases. In this study, we cloned five additional yolk proteins from the grey fleshfly Neobellieria bullata, formerly known as Sarcophaga bullata. We used this sequence data, combined with sequence data retrieved from the NCBI protein database to evaluate the yolk protein-lipase and the yolk protein-minor yolk protein relationship. We found no similarity between yolk proteins and minor yolk proteins, but we showed that yolk proteins are related to a family of lipases containing vertebrate hepatic and pancreatic lipases while minor yolk proteins are related to a family of lipases containing vertebrate gastric and lingual lipases. The fact that three different classes of yolk storage proteins show similarity to three different classes of vertebrate lipid-binding proteins strongly suggests that this lipid-binding feature is important for insect yolk storage proteins.

SlidingBayes: exploring recombination using a sliding window approach based on Bayesian phylogenetic inference

We developed a software tool (SlidingBayes) for recombination analysis based on Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Sliding-Bayes provides a powerful approach for detecting potential recombination, especially between highly divergent sequences and complex HIV-1 recombinants for which simpler methods like neighbor joining (NJ) may be less powerful. SlidingBayes guides Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling performed by MrBayes in a sliding window across the alignment (Bayesian scanning). The tool can be used for nucleotide and amino acid sequences and combines all the modeling possibilities of MrBayes with the ability to plot the posterior probability support for clustering of various combinations of taxa.

Analysis of the evolutionary relationships of HIV-1 and SIVcpz sequences using bayesian inference: implications for the origin of HIV-1

The most plausible origin of HIV-1 group M is an SIV lineage currently represented by SIVcpz isolated from the chimpanzee subspecies Pan troglodytes troglodytes. The origin of HIV-1 group O is less clear. Putative recombination between any of the HIV-1 and SIVcpz sequences was tested using bootscanning and Bayesian-scanning plots, as well as a new method using a Bayesian multiple change-point (BMCP) model to infer parental sequences and crossing-over points. We found that in the case of highly divergent sequences, such as HIV-1/SIVcpz, Bayesian scanning and BMCP methods are more appropriate than bootscanning analysis to investigate spatial phylogenetic variation, including estimating the boundaries of the regions with discordant evolutionary relationships and the levels of support of the phylogenetic clusters under study. According to the Bayesian scanning plots and BMCP method, there was strong evidence for discordant phylogenetic clustering throughout the genome: (1) HIV-1 group O clustered with SIVcpzANT/TAN in middle pol, and partial vif/env; (2) SIVcpzGab1 clustered with SIVcpzANT/TAN in 3'pol/vif, and middle env; (3) HIV-1 group O grouped with SIVcpzCamUS and SIVcpzGab1 in p17/p24; (4) HIV-1 group M was more closely related to SIVcpzCamUS in 3'gag/pol and in middle pol, whereas in partial gp120 group M clustered with group O. Conditionally independent phylogenetic analysis inferred by maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods further confirmed these findings. The discordant phylogenetic relationships between the HIV-1/SIVcpz sequences may have been caused by ancient recombination events, but they are also due, at least in part, to altered rates of evolution between parental SIVcpz lineages.

Mannan-binding lectin (MBL) gene polymorphisms in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease

The inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), Crohn's disease (CD), and ulcerative colitis (UC), are complex multifactorial traits involving both environmental and genetic factors. Mannan-binding lectin (MBL) plays an important role in non-specific immunity and complement activation. Point mutations in codons 52, 54 and 57 of exon 1 of the MBL gene are associated with decreased MBL plasma concentrations and increased susceptibility to various infectious diseases. If these MBL mutations could lead to susceptibility to putative IBD-etiological microbial agents, or could temper the complement-mediated mucosal damage in IBD, MBL could function as the link between certain microbial, immunological and genetic factors in IBD. In this study, we investigated the presence of the codon 52, 54 and 57 mutations of the MBL gene in 431 unrelated IBD patients, 112 affected and 141 unaffected first-degree relatives, and 308 healthy control individuals. In the group of sporadic IBD patients (n = 340), the frequency of the investigated MBL variants was significantly lower in UC patients when compared with CD patients (P = 0.01) and with controls (P = 0.02). These results suggest that MBL mutations which decrease the formation of functional MBL could protect against the clinical development of sporadic UC, but not of CD. This could be explained by the differential T-helper response in both diseases.