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Abernethy DA, Upton P, Higgins IM, McGrath G, Goodchild AV, Rolfe SJ, Broughan JM, Downs SH, Clifton-Hadley R, Menzies FD, de la Rua-Domenech R, Blissitt MJ, Duignan A, More SJ. Bovine tuberculosis trends in the UK and the Republic of Ireland, 1995-2010. Vet Rec 2013; 172:312. [DOI: 10.1136/vr.100969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 97] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- D. A. Abernethy
- Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases; University of Pretoria; Private Bag X04 Onderstepoort 0110 South Africa
| | - P. Upton
- Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratory Agency; Weybridge, New Haw Addlestone Surrey KT15 3NB Great Britain
| | - I. M. Higgins
- Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis; UCD School of Veterinary Medicine; University College Dublin; Belfield Dublin 4 Ireland
| | - G. McGrath
- Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis; UCD School of Veterinary Medicine; University College Dublin; Belfield Dublin 4 Ireland
| | - A. V. Goodchild
- Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratory Agency; Weybridge, New Haw Addlestone Surrey KT15 3NB Great Britain
| | - S. J. Rolfe
- Office of the Chief Veterinary Officer; Welsh Government Cathays Park Cardiff CF10 3NQ Great Britain
| | - J. M. Broughan
- Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratory Agency; Weybridge, New Haw Addlestone Surrey KT15 3NB Great Britain
| | - S. H. Downs
- Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratory Agency; Weybridge, New Haw Addlestone Surrey KT15 3NB Great Britain
| | - R. Clifton-Hadley
- Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratory Agency; Weybridge, New Haw Addlestone Surrey KT15 3NB Great Britain
| | - F. D. Menzies
- Veterinary Epidemiology Unit; Department of Agriculture and Rural Development; Dundonald House, Upper Newtownards Road Belfast BT4 3SB Northern Ireland UK
| | - R. de la Rua-Domenech
- Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency; Tuberculosis Programme of the Department for Environment; Food and Rural Affairs, Nobel House London SW1P 3JR Great Britain
| | - M. J. Blissitt
- Veterinary and Science Team; Rural and Environmental Directorate; Scottish Government, Saughton House Broomhouse Drive Edinburgh EH11 3XD Great Britain
| | - A. Duignan
- Department of Agriculture; Food and the Marine; Backweston, Celbridge Co. Kildare Ireland
| | - S. J. More
- Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis; UCD School of Veterinary Medicine; University College Dublin; Belfield Dublin 4 Ireland
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2
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Schock A, Higgins R, Crawshaw T, Clifton-Hadley R, Shaw D, Gunn-Moore D. Mycobacterial Disease in British Cats. J Comp Pathol 2012. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jcpa.2011.11.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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Daniel R, Evans H, Rolfe S, de la Rua-Domenech R, Crawshaw T, Higgins RJ, Schock A, Clifton-Hadley R. Outbreak of tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis in golden Guernsey goats in Great Britain. Vet Rec 2009; 165:335-42. [PMID: 19767636 DOI: 10.1136/vr.165.12.335] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
An outbreak of caprine tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis was disclosed in June 2008, affecting goats of the golden Guernsey breed kept on 10 separate smallholdings in south-west Wales and the west of England. Following the initial diagnosis at postmortem examination, 30 goats that reacted positively to the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test, together with five in-contact animals, were euthanased and subjected to postmortem examination and mycobacterial culture. Spoligotyping and variable number tandem repeat analysis of isolates showed that they were all of the same genotype, endemic to south-west Wales. Retrospective movement tracings identified a goat herd in south-west Wales, by then completely dispersed, as the probable common source of infection. There was a perfect correlation between the SICCT test and culture results in all slaughtered goats. Grossly visible tubercular lesions were observed at postmortem examination in all but one reactor.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Daniel
- Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA) - Carmarthen, Job's Well Road, Johnstown, Carmarthen SA31 3EZ.
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4
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Downs SH, Durr P, Edwards J, Clifton-Hadley R. Trace micro-nutrients may affect susceptibility to bovine tuberculosis in cattle. Prev Vet Med 2008; 87:311-26. [PMID: 18599138 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.05.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2007] [Revised: 05/01/2008] [Accepted: 05/11/2008] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a continuing problem in British herds. Micro-nutrients are important for the maintenance of well-functioning immune system. The aim of this study was to determine whether the selenium, copper and vitamin B12 status of cattle was associated with Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) infection. Between 2002 and 2005, 200 cattle (43% dairy, mean age 4.6 years), reactors according to the standard interpretation of the tuberculin test, and 200 in-contacts (41% dairy, mean age 4.4 years) non-reactors, which had been in contact with cattle with bTB, were selected from herds in England and Wales. Levels of the seleno enzyme glutathione peroxidase (GSHPx), copper and vitamin B12 were measured in blood. Confirmation of bTB infection was made by bacteriological culture and histopathology following a detailed postmortem. Levels of selenium and copper were also measured in a random sample of 63 livers. bTB was confirmed by culture/histology in 23/200 (11.5%) of in-contacts and 110/200 (55%) of reactors. In blood drawn at recruitment, GSHPx was lower in cattle with confirmed bTB compared to other cattle (geometric means 59.7 u/mL versus 78.9 u/mL red blood cells (RBC), p<0.01). Vitamin B12 was similar (geometric means 161.5 pmol/L versus 165.5 pmol/L, p=0.62) and copper was similar (geometric means 14.4 micromol/L versus 14.1 micromol/L, p=0.55). In logistic regression models including all micro-nutrients simultaneously and controlling for age, sex, animal production class, herd size, number of reactors, postmortem laboratory and seasonal trends, lower levels of GSHPx (adjusted OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.21-0.81 per 100 u/mL RBC, p=0.01) and higher levels of copper (adjusted OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.21-2.36 per 5 micromol/L, p<0.01) were associated with an increased risk of confirmed bTB but there was no association with vitamin B12. There was evidence for a stronger association between confirmed bTB and GSHPx in in-contacts (adjusted OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.06-0.79 per 100 u/mL RBC) compared to reactors (adjusted OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.21-1.23 per 100 u/mL RBC) (p=0.08 for interaction). Lower liver copper was associated with a higher risk of confirmed bTB (adjusted OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.02-1.0 per 5,000 micromol/kgdry mass, p=0.05) but there was no association between liver selenium and bTB. Trace micro-nutrient status may affect susceptibility to M. bovis infection in cattle. Further studies are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- S H Downs
- Veterinary Laboratories Agency-Weybridge, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.
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5
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Johnson LK, Liebana E, Nunez A, Spencer Y, Clifton-Hadley R, Jahans K, Ward A, Barlow A, Delahay R. Histological observations of bovine tuberculosis in lung and lymph node tissues from British deer. Vet J 2008; 175:409-12. [PMID: 17584504 DOI: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2007.04.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2007] [Revised: 04/24/2007] [Accepted: 04/24/2007] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Deer are recognized as hosts of Mycobacterium bovis and assessing the role of wild cervids in perpetuating tuberculosis among cattle has motivated extensive research on several continents. In this paper, the histopathology of lymph node and lung tuberculous granulomas in M. bovis positive British deer is presented. The overall aim was to seek further insights into the potential for onward transmission from infected deer to other species, including cattle. Samples were obtained from an extensive survey of wild mammals in South-West England and from statutory tuberculosis surveillance. M. bovis culture-positive samples were characterised microscopically as to their stage of lesion advancement, number of acid-fast bacilli and granuloma encapsulation. Seventy percent of the deer developed granulomas containing far greater numbers of M. bovis bacilli than typically reported in cattle. Red and fallow deer had the largest number of poorly encapsulated granulomas often containing many hundreds of bacilli. The results are consistent with infected wild British deer being a potential source of environmental contamination and onward transmission to other species. However, further work on levels of bacillary shedding is required before this can be confirmed.
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Affiliation(s)
- L K Johnson
- Department of Pathology, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Addlestone, Surrey, UK
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Liebana E, Johnson L, Gough J, Durr P, Jahans K, Clifton-Hadley R, Spencer Y, Hewinson RG, Downs SH. Pathology of naturally occurring bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales. Vet J 2007; 176:354-60. [PMID: 17728162 DOI: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2007.07.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2007] [Revised: 06/13/2007] [Accepted: 07/01/2007] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
The aim of this study was to obtain a contemporary data set of pathology in tuberculin reactor and in-contact cattle in England and Wales. Four hundred animals (200 reactors and 200 in-contacts) from 242 farms located in 14 counties in Western England and Wales were examined. The mean number of lymph nodes (LNs) with tuberculosis (TB)-like lesions per TB-confirmed animal was 1.7 in reactors and 1.5 in in-contact animals. Tuberculous lesions in both reactor and in-contact animals were most commonly observed in the LNs of the thorax, followed by the head and abdomen, particularly the mediastinal, retropharyngeal and tracheobronchial LNs. Twenty-five reactors had macroscopic lesions in the palatine tonsils. Among TB-confirmed cattle, 27% of reactors and 9% of in-contact animals had gross TB-like lesions in the lungs, particularly in the caudal lobes. Gross lesions that were not TB-confirmed were parasitic granulomas (45%), bacterial or mycotic club-forming pyogranulomas (27%) and bacterial abscesses (23%). Diagnostic sensitivity was maximised when bacteriology and histopathology were used concurrently. Stage IV granulomas, alone or in combination with other stages, constituted 63% of lesions, while 16% of lesions were stage I/II granulomas. Caseous necrosis and calcification were common features of the granulomas encountered in natural Mycobacterium bovis infections, even with pathology limited to a small number of sites. Granulomas often covered large areas of histological sections and typically contained only small numbers of acid fast bacilli.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Liebana
- Department of Pathology, Veterinary Laboratories Agency-Weybridge, Addlestone, Surrey, England, UK.
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Mitchell A, Bourn D, Mawdsley J, Wint W, Clifton-Hadley R, Gilbert M. Characteristics of cattle movements in Britain – an analysis of records from the Cattle Tracing System. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1079/asc50020265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
AbstractThis paper reviews the main temporal and spatial characteristics of cattle movements in Britain, based on an analysis of records in the British Cattle Movement Service's Cattle Tracing System (CTS) database, focusing on the period 2001 to 2003, during which notification of cattle movements was mandatory. Movements vary weekly and seasonally according to the production cycle, with peaks in late spring (April) and early autumn (October), and an average 1·63 million farm-to-farm movements per month, equivalent to 19·6 million per annum. The geographical distribution of these movements appears to be relatively stable from year to year, with the great majority of animals moving less than 100 km per journey, although many tens of thousands move over far greater distances of up to 1000 km. The procedures developed to extract, match, geo-reference, analyse and display movement records have greatly enhanced the utility of the CTS database, in that it is now feasible to assess, monitor and mapthe spatial dynamics and geographical distribution of cattle movements, and provide this information in standardized format on a regular basis.
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8
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Johnston WT, Gettinby G, Cox DR, Donnelly CA, Bourne J, Clifton-Hadley R, Le Fevre AM, McInerney JP, Mitchell A, Morrison WI, Woodroffe R. Herd-level risk factors associated with tuberculosis breakdowns among cattle herds in England before the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Biol Lett 2007; 1:53-6. [PMID: 17148126 PMCID: PMC1629052 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2004.0249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
A case-control study of the factors associated with the risk of a bovine tuberculosis (TB) breakdown in cattle herds was undertaken within the randomized badger culling trial (RBCT). TB breakdowns occurring prior to the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in three RBCT triplets were eligible to be cases; controls were selected from the same RBCT area. Data from 151 case farms and 117 control farms were analysed using logistic regression. The strongest factors associated with an increased TB risk were movement of cattle onto the farm from markets or farm sales, operating a farm over multiple premises and the use of either covered yard or 'other' housing types. Spreading artificial fertilizers or farmyard manure on grazing land were both associated with decreased risk. These first case-control results from the RBCT will be followed by similar analyses as more data become available.
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Affiliation(s)
- W T Johnston
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.
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9
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Gopal R, Goodchild A, Hewinson G, de la Rua Domenech R, Clifton-Hadley R. Introduction of bovine tuberculosis to north-east England by bought-in cattle. Vet Rec 2006; 159:265-71. [PMID: 16946308 DOI: 10.1136/vr.159.9.265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
The source of bovine tuberculosis was investigated in 31 herds in north-east England that experienced confirmed breakdowns between January 2002 and June 2004; nine of the herds had been restocked after the UK outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in 2001. In all but one of the breakdowns the most likely source of infection was identified as one or more purchased animals. In 17 of the breakdowns, reactor animals were traced to herds from which the same combination of spoligotype and variable number tandem repeats was isolated, and in five breakdowns a different spoligotype was isolated. The most likely sources were located in Wales and the west and north of England, and included a Cheshire herd that was the most likely source of nine of the breakdowns. Three breakdowns were traced to Irish imports. Reactors in five of the breakdowns included homebred as well as purchased animals, providing evidence for the likely spread of the disease within the herds. The lack of geographical clustering of molecular types pointed to the overwhelming source of infection being cattle that had been bought-in.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Gopal
- Veterinary Laboratories Agency-Weybridge, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB
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Jalava K, Jones JA, Goodchild T, Clifton-Hadley R, Mitchell A, Story A, Watson JM. No increase in human cases of Mycobacterium bovis disease despite resurgence of infections in cattle in the United Kingdom. Epidemiol Infect 2006; 135:40-5. [PMID: 16740186 PMCID: PMC2870542 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268806006509] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/22/2006] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
A resurgence of Mycobacterium bovis infections in cattle in the United Kingdom since the 1980s has raised concern about risks to human health. Enhanced surveillance data for England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1993 and 2003 of culture-positive human M. bovis cases identified 315 M. bovis infections; the mean annual number of cases was 28 (range 12-41). The most frequently reported exposures were consumption of unpasteurized dairy products 41/83 (49%) and exposure to cattle 45/123 (37%). Of all cases, 249 (83%) were born before 1960. Of 50 cases born after 1960, only 14 were born in the United Kingdom. Over the same time period the annual number of new herd infections increased from 332 to 1749 as derived from the UK State Veterinary Service database. In conclusion, despite a more than fivefold increase in cattle herd infections during the 1990s, there was no increase in reported human cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Jalava
- Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency, London, UK.
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Gilbert M, Mitchell A, Bourn D, Mawdsley J, Clifton-Hadley R, Wint W. Cattle movements and bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. Nature 2005; 435:491-6. [PMID: 15917808 DOI: 10.1038/nature03548] [Citation(s) in RCA: 266] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2005] [Accepted: 03/18/2005] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
For 20 years, bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been spreading in Great Britain (England, Wales and Scotland) and is now endemic in the southwest and parts of central England and in southwest Wales, and occurs sporadically elsewhere. Although its transmission pathways remain poorly understood, the disease's distribution was previously modelled statistically by using environmental variables and measures of their seasonality. Movements of infected animals have long been considered a critical factor in the spread of livestock diseases, as reflected in strict import/export regulations, the extensive movement restrictions imposed during the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, the tracing procedures after a new case of BTB has been confirmed and the Government's recently published strategic framework for the sustainable control on BTB. Since January 2001 it has been mandatory for stock-keepers in Great Britain to notify the British Cattle Movement Service of all cattle births, movements and deaths. Here we show that movements as recorded in the Cattle Tracing System data archive, and particularly those from areas where BTB is reported, consistently outperform environmental, topographic and other anthropogenic variables as the main predictor of disease occurrence. Simulation distribution models for 2002 and 2003, incorporating all predictor categories, are presented and used to project distributions for 2004 and 2005.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Gilbert
- Biological Control and Spatial Ecology CP160/12, Université Libre de Bruxelles, avenue F.D. Roosevelt 50, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium
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Vordermeier M, Goodchild A, Clifton-Hadley R, de la Rua R. The interferon-gamma field trial: background, principles and progress. Vet Rec 2004; 155:37-8. [PMID: 15285281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Since November 2002, the State Veterinary Service and the Veterinary Laboratories Agency have been conducting a field trial to assess the interferon-gamma test as an ancillary parallel test to the tuberculin skin test in herds with confirmed tuberculosis breakdowns. Here, Martin Vordermeier, Tony Goodchild, Richard Clifton-Hadley and Ricardo de la Rua describe the background to the trial, discuss the principle of the test and provide an update of progress so far
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Affiliation(s)
- M Vordermeier
- Veterinary Laboratories Agency - Weybridge, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey
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Abstract
Many 'economic' studies of livestock diseases in Great Britain have been carried out over time. Most studies have considered just one or two diseases and used a different methodology and valuation base from other studies, hampering any comparative assessment of the economic impact of diseases. A standardized methodology was applied to the estimation of the direct costs to livestock production of some 30 endemic diseases/conditions of farm animals in Great Britain. This involved identification of the livestock populations at risk, estimation of the annual incidence of each disease in these populations, identification of the range and incidence of physical effects of each disease on production, valuation of the physical effects of each disease and estimation of the financial value of output losses/resource wastage due to a disease and the costs of specific treatment and prevention measures. The wider economic impacts of disease (such as the implications for human health, animal welfare and markets) were not included in the assessments. Using this standardized methodology with common financial values, a simple spreadsheet model was constructed for each disease. Given the paucity of appropriate disease data for economic assessment, 'low' and 'high' values were used to reflect uncertainties surrounding key disease parameters. Preliminary estimates of the value of disease output losses/resource wastage, treatment and prevention costs are presented for each disease. Despite the limitations of the spreadsheet models and of the estimates derived from them, we conclude that the models represent a useful start in developing a system for the comparative economic assessment of livestock diseases in Great Britain.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Bennett
- Department of Agricultural and Food Economics, University of Reading, UK.
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Rogers LM, Cheeseman CL, Mallinson PJ, Clifton-Hadley R. The demography of a high-density badger (Meles meles) population in the west of England. J Zool (1987) 1997. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-7998.1997.tb05821.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 122] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Swinton J, Tuyttens F, MacDonald D, Nokes DJ, Cheeseman CL, Clifton-Hadley R. A comparison of fertility control and lethal control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers: the impact of perturbation induced transmission. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 1997; 352:619-31. [PMID: 9183803 PMCID: PMC1691945 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.1997.0042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
In this paper we use mathematical modelling to consider the broad advantages and disadvantages of fertility control over lethal control for bovine tuberculosis in badger populations. We use a deliberately simple model, attempting to capture only the key transmission processes. The model is parametrized with reference to the long-term Woodchester Park study. Estimates of mortality rate from this study suggest no significant extra mortality risk for animals with evidence of infection as indicated by the presence of anti-Mycobacterium bovis antibodies or M. bovis isolation. We find that large reductions in prevalence are sometimes the consequence of only moderate reductions in population numbers. If we assume that the act of control does not in itself affect transmission rates, then as far as eradication is concerned, both fertility control and mortality control operate through the same epidemiological mechanism, the removal of susceptibles: if one is in principle capable of keeping a population low enough to be infection free then so is the other. It is necessary to continue either form of control at regular intervals to maintain a constant level of infection in the long term. If control were to be stopped, return to precontrol levels of badger population and infection prevalence would be expected within a few years. Fertility control is less effective in reducing population density than lethal control since it can only act, at maximum, to remove one age cohort per year. It is also less effective in reducing transmission as it can only ever remove susceptibles, while lethal control also removes infectious badgers. However, if the social disturbance caused by lethal control does in fact increase contact rates for the remaining infectious badgers, the relative efficacies of the two strategies become a great deal less clear. While we have no quantitative data on the extent to which social perturbation does act to promote transmission, model simulations show that it is possible to develop plausible scenarios in which the lethal control may actually act to increase the absolute numbers of animals infected, while reducing the number of uninfected animals to very low numbers.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Swinton
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, UK.
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