Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Blood inorganic mercury is directly associated with glucose levels in the human population and may be linked to processed food intake

Background:

The goals of the study were (1) to determine the impact of inorganic mercury exposure on glucose homeostasis; and (2) to evaluate the effectiveness of two community-based interventions in promoting dietary changes among American Indian college students to reduce risk factors for Type-2 Diabetes including fasting glucose, insulin, and mercury levels, weight, and body mass index.

Methods:

To accomplish goal one, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) dataset was analyzed using a previously published method to determine if there is a relationship between inorganic blood mercury and fasting glucose. To accomplish goal two, ten college students were recruited and randomly assigned to a group receiving the online macroepigenetics nutrition course and the support group for eliminating corn sweeteners. Participants in both groups were assessed for diet patterns, weight, body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, insulin, and mercury levels. The interventions were implemented over a 10-week period.

Results:

Analysis of the NHANES data (n=16,232) determined a direct relationship between inorganic mercury in blood and fasting glucose levels (p<0.001). The participants who took the online macroepigenetics nutrition intervention course significantly improved their diets (p<0.01), and fasting blood glucose levels (p<0.01) while having lower levels of inorganic mercury in their blood compared to the subjects in the group who eliminated corn sweeteners from their diet and participated in the support group. The trend in lower blood inorganic mercury was strong with p=0.052. The participants in the support group who eliminated corn sweeteners from their diet achieved significant weight loss (p<0.01) and reduced their body mass index (p<0.01).

Conclusion:

Total blood mercury levels may be influenced by dietary intake of highly processed foods and lower inorganic mercury levels are associated with lower fasting glucose levels. Alternative community-based interventions emphasizing the role food ingredients and toxic substances play in gene modulation and the development of diseases can result in significant dietary improvements and reductions in risk factors associated with type-2 diabetes. A healthier diet can be promoted among community members using a novel online nutrition course. Consumption of corn sweeteners may be a risk factor in the development of obesity.

A macroepigenetic approach to identify factors responsible for the autism epidemic in the United States

The number of children ages 6 to 21 in the United States receiving special education services under the autism disability category increased 91% between 2005 to 2010 while the number of children receiving special education services overall declined by 5%. The demand for special education services continues to rise in disability categories associated with pervasive developmental disorders. Neurodevelopment can be adversely impacted when gene expression is altered by dietary transcription factors, such as zinc insufficiency or deficiency, or by exposure to toxic substances found in our environment, such as mercury or organophosphate pesticides. Gene expression patterns differ geographically between populations and within populations. Gene variants of paraoxonase-1 are associated with autism in North America, but not in Italy, indicating regional specificity in gene-environment interactions. In the current review, we utilize a novel macroepigenetic approach to compare variations in diet and toxic substance exposure between these two geographical populations to determine the likely factors responsible for the autism epidemic in the United States.

Mercury exposure, nutritional deficiencies and metabolic disruptions may affect learning in children

Among dietary factors, learning and behavior are influenced not only by nutrients, but also by exposure to toxic food contaminants such as mercury that can disrupt metabolic processes and alter neuronal plasticity. Neurons lacking in plasticity are a factor in neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism and mental retardation. Essential nutrients help maintain normal neuronal plasticity. Nutritional deficiencies, including deficiencies in the long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid, the amino acid methionine, and the trace minerals zinc and selenium, have been shown to influence neuronal function and produce defects in neuronal plasticity, as well as impact behavior in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Nutritional deficiencies and mercury exposure have been shown to alter neuronal function and increase oxidative stress among children with autism. These dietary factors may be directly related to the development of behavior disorders and learning disabilities. Mercury, either individually or in concert with other factors, may be harmful if ingested in above average amounts or by sensitive individuals. High fructose corn syrup has been shown to contain trace amounts of mercury as a result of some manufacturing processes, and its consumption can also lead to zinc loss. Consumption of certain artificial food color additives has also been shown to lead to zinc deficiency. Dietary zinc is essential for maintaining the metabolic processes required for mercury elimination. Since high fructose corn syrup and artificial food color additives are common ingredients in many foodstuffs, their consumption should be considered in those individuals with nutritional deficits such as zinc deficiency or who are allergic or sensitive to the effects of mercury or unable to effectively metabolize and eliminate it from the body.

Depression and anxiety in the United States: findings from the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the unadjusted and adjusted prevalence estimates of depression and anxiety at the state level and examined the odds ratios of depression and anxiety for selected risk behaviors, obesity, and chronic diseases.

METHODS

The 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, a random-digit-dialed telephone survey, collected depression and anxiety data from 217,379 participants in 38 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Current depressive symptoms were assessed with the standardized and validated eight-item Patient Health Questionnaire, and lifetime diagnosis of depression and anxiety was assessed by two additional questions (one question for each diagnosis).

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of current depressive symptoms was 8.7% (range by state and territory, 5.3%-13.7%); of a lifetime diagnosis of depression, 15.7% (range, 6.8%-21.3%); and of a lifetime diagnosis of anxiety, 11.3% (range, 5.4%-17.2%). After sociodemographic characteristics, adverse health behaviors, and chronic illnesses were adjusted for, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, asthma, smoking, and obesity were all significantly associated with current depressive symptoms, a lifetime diagnosis of anxiety, and a lifetime diagnosis of depression. Physically inactive adults were significantly more likely than those who were physically active to have current depressive symptoms or a lifetime diagnosis of depression, whereas those who drank heavily were significantly more likely than those who did not to have current depressive symptoms or a lifetime diagnosis of anxiety.

CONCLUSIONS

Depression and anxiety were strongly associated with common chronic medical disorders and adverse health behaviors. Examination of mental health should therefore be an integral component of overall health care.

Sonography of patellar abnormalities in children

OBJECTIVE

We describe our experience using sonography to evaluate the patella and patellofemoral joint in three children with congenital abnormalities of the extensor mechanism of the lower extremity.

CONCLUSION

Sonography can be used to evaluate the extensor mechanism and unossified patella in young children. Advantages of sonography over MR imaging are no need for sedation, speed of examination and ability to compare with the contralateral knee, low cost, and the sonographer's ability to dynamically evaluate the extensor mechanism.