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de Paiva BBM, Pereira PD, de Andrade CMV, Gomes VMR, Souza-Silva MVR, Martins KPMP, Sales TLS, de Carvalho RLR, Pires MC, Ramos LEF, Silva RT, de Freitas Martins Vieira A, Nunes AGS, de Oliveira Jorge A, de Oliveira Maurílio A, Scotton ALBA, da Silva CTCA, Cimini CCR, Ponce D, Pereira EC, Manenti ERF, Rodrigues FD, Anschau F, Botoni FA, Bartolazzi F, Grizende GMS, Noal HC, Duani H, Gomes IM, Costa JHSM, di Sabatino Santos Guimarães J, Tupinambás JT, Rugolo JM, Batista JDL, de Alvarenga JC, Chatkin JM, Ruschel KB, Zandoná LB, Pinheiro LS, Menezes LSM, de Oliveira LMC, Kopittke L, Assis LA, Marques LM, Raposo MC, Floriani MA, Bicalho MAC, Nogueira MCA, de Oliveira NR, Ziegelmann PK, Paraiso PG, de Lima Martelli PJ, Senger R, Menezes RM, Francisco SC, Araújo SF, Kurtz T, Fereguetti TO, de Oliveira TC, Ribeiro YCNMB, Ramires YC, Lima MCPB, Carneiro M, Bezerra AFB, Schwarzbold AV, de Moura Costa AS, Farace BL, Silveira DV, de Almeida Cenci EP, Lucas FB, Aranha FG, Bastos GAN, Vietta GG, Nascimento GF, Vianna HR, Guimarães HC, de Morais JDP, Moreira LB, de Oliveira LS, de Deus Sousa L, de Souza Viana L, de Souza Cabral MA, Ferreira MAP, de Godoy MF, de Figueiredo MP, Guimarães-Junior MH, de Paula de Sordi MA, da Cunha Severino Sampaio N, Assaf PL, Lutkmeier R, Valacio RA, Finger RG, de Freitas R, Guimarães SMM, Oliveira TF, Diniz THO, Gonçalves MA, Marcolino MS. Potential and limitations of machine meta-learning (ensemble) methods for predicting COVID-19 mortality in a large inhospital Brazilian dataset. Sci Rep 2023; 13:3463. [PMID: 36859446 PMCID: PMC9975879 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28579-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2021] [Accepted: 01/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023] Open
Abstract
The majority of early prediction scores and methods to predict COVID-19 mortality are bound by methodological flaws and technological limitations (e.g., the use of a single prediction model). Our aim is to provide a thorough comparative study that tackles those methodological issues, considering multiple techniques to build mortality prediction models, including modern machine learning (neural) algorithms and traditional statistical techniques, as well as meta-learning (ensemble) approaches. This study used a dataset from a multicenter cohort of 10,897 adult Brazilian COVID-19 patients, admitted from March/2020 to November/2021, including patients [median age 60 (interquartile range 48-71), 46% women]. We also proposed new original population-based meta-features that have not been devised in the literature. Stacking has shown to achieve the best results reported in the literature for the death prediction task, improving over previous state-of-the-art by more than 46% in Recall for predicting death, with AUROC 0.826 and MacroF1 of 65.4%. The newly proposed meta-features were highly discriminative of death, but fell short in producing large improvements in final prediction performance, demonstrating that we are possibly on the limits of the prediction capabilities that can be achieved with the current set of ML techniques and (meta-)features. Finally, we investigated how the trained models perform on different hospitals, showing that there are indeed large differences in classifier performance between different hospitals, further making the case that errors are produced by factors that cannot be modeled with the current predictors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bruno Barbosa Miranda de Paiva
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Computer Science Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Polianna Delfino Pereira
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil ,Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, building 21, room 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Claudio Moisés Valiense de Andrade
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Computer Science Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Virginia Mara Reis Gomes
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Maira Viana Rego Souza-Silva
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Karina Paula Medeiros Prado Martins
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Thaís Lorenna Souza Sales
- grid.428481.30000 0001 1516 3599Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei, R. Sebastião Gonçalves Coelho, 400, Divinópolis, Brazil
| | | | - Magda Carvalho Pires
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, ICEx, room 4071, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Lucas Emanuel Ferreira Ramos
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, ICEx, room 4071, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Rafael Tavares Silva
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, ICEx, room 4071, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Daniela Ponce
- grid.410543.70000 0001 2188 478XFaculdade de Medicina de Botucatu-Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”, Av. Prof. Mário Rubens Guimarães Montenegro, s/n-UNESP-Campus de Botucatu, Botucatu, Brazil
| | | | | | - Fernanda d’Athayde Rodrigues
- grid.414449.80000 0001 0125 3761Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Fernando Anschau
- grid.414914.dHospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | - Frederico Bartolazzi
- Hospital Santo Antônio, Pç. Dr. Márcio Carvalho Lopes Filho, 501, Curvelo, Brazil
| | - Genna Maira Santos Grizende
- grid.477816.b0000 0004 4692 337XHospital Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Belo Horizonte, Av. Francisco Sales, 1111, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Helena Carolina Noal
- grid.411239.c0000 0001 2284 6531Universidade Federal de Santa Maria/Hospital Universitário/EBSERH, Av. Roraima, 1000, building 22, Santa Maria, Brazil
| | - Helena Duani
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Isabela Moraes Gomes
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Juliana Machado Rugolo
- grid.410543.70000 0001 2188 478XFaculdade de Medicina de Botucatu-Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”, Av. Prof. Mário Rubens Guimarães Montenegro, s/n-UNESP-Campus de Botucatu, Botucatu, Brazil
| | - Joanna d’Arc Lyra Batista
- grid.440565.60000 0004 0491 0431Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul, Av. Fernando Machado, 108E, Chapecó, Brazil
| | | | - José Miguel Chatkin
- grid.411379.90000 0001 2198 7041Hospital São Lucas PUCRS, Av. Ipiranga, 6690, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Karen Brasil Ruschel
- grid.414871.f0000 0004 0491 7596Hospital Mãe de Deus, R. José de Alencar, 286, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - Luanna Silva Monteiro Menezes
- Hospital Metropolitano Odilon Behrens, R. Formiga, 50, Belo Horizonte, Brazil ,Hospital Luxemburgo, R. Gentios, 1350, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Luciane Kopittke
- grid.414914.dHospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Luisa Argolo Assis
- grid.412520.00000 0001 2155 6671Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais, Av. Dom José Gaspar, 500, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Luiza Margoto Marques
- grid.419130.e0000 0004 0413 0953Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Al. Ezequiel Dias, 275, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Magda Cesar Raposo
- grid.428481.30000 0001 1516 3599Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei, R. Sebastião Gonçalves Coelho, 400, Divinópolis, Brazil
| | - Maiara Anschau Floriani
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 910, Porto Alegre, Brazil ,Moinhos Research Institute, 910 Ramiro Barcelos Street, 5 floor, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Maria Aparecida Camargos Bicalho
- grid.452464.50000 0000 9270 1314Fundação Hospitalar do Estado de Minas Gerais–FHEMIG, Cidade Administrativa de Minas Gerais, Edifício Gerais, 13rd floor, Rod. Papa João Paulo II, 3777, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | - Neimy Ramos de Oliveira
- grid.452464.50000 0000 9270 1314Hospital Eduardo de Menezes, R. Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2213, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Roberta Senger
- grid.411239.c0000 0001 2284 6531Universidade Federal de Santa Maria/Hospital Universitário/EBSERH, Av. Roraima, 1000, building 22, Santa Maria, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Tatiana Kurtz
- Hospital Santa Cruz, R. Fernando Abott, 174, Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil
| | - Tatiani Oliveira Fereguetti
- grid.452464.50000 0000 9270 1314Hospital Eduardo de Menezes, R. Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2213, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | - Marcelo Carneiro
- Hospital Santa Cruz, R. Fernando Abott, 174, Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil
| | | | - Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold
- grid.411239.c0000 0001 2284 6531Universidade Federal de Santa Maria/Hospital Universitário/EBSERH, Av. Roraima, 1000, building 22, Santa Maria, Brazil
| | | | - Barbara Lopes Farace
- grid.490178.3Hospital Risoleta Tolentino Neves, R. das Gabirobas, 01, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | - Gisele Alsina Nader Bastos
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 910, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Leila Beltrami Moreira
- grid.414449.80000 0001 0125 3761Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Máderson Alvares de Souza Cabral
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Maria Angélica Pires Ferreira
- grid.414449.80000 0001 0125 3761Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Mariana Frizzo de Godoy
- grid.411379.90000 0001 2198 7041Hospital São Lucas PUCRS, Av. Ipiranga, 6690, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - Mônica Aparecida de Paula de Sordi
- grid.410543.70000 0001 2188 478XFaculdade de Medicina de Botucatu-Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”, Av. Prof. Mário Rubens Guimarães Montenegro, s/n-UNESP-Campus de Botucatu, Botucatu, Brazil
| | | | - Pedro Ledic Assaf
- Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro, R. Dona Luiza, 311, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Raquel Lutkmeier
- grid.414914.dHospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - Rufino de Freitas
- Hospital São João de Deus, R. do Cobre, 800, São João de Deus, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Marcos André Gonçalves
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Computer Science Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Milena Soriano Marcolino
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), R. Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, building 21, room 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil. .,Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, room 246, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. .,Telehealth Center, University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 110 room 107. Santa Efigênia, Belo Horizonte, MG, CEP 30130-100, Brazil.
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Souza-Silva MVR, Ziegelmann PK, Nobre V, Gomes VMR, Etges APBDS, Schwarzbold AV, Nunes AGS, Maurílio ADO, Scotton ALBA, Costa ASDM, Glaeser AB, Farace BL, Ribeiro BN, Ramos CM, Cimini CCR, de Carvalho CA, Rempel C, Silveira DV, Carazai DDR, Ponce D, Pereira EC, Kroger EMS, Manenti ERF, Cenci EPDA, Lucas FB, dos Santos FC, Anschau F, Botoni FA, Aranha FG, de Aguiar FC, Bartolazzi F, Crestani GP, Vietta GG, Nascimento GF, Noal HC, Duani H, Vianna HR, Guimarães HC, de Alvarenga JC, Chatkin JM, de Morais JDP, Carvalho JDSN, Rugolo JM, Ruschel KB, Gomes LDBW, de Oliveira LS, Zandoná LB, Pinheiro LS, Pacheco LS, Menezes LDSM, Sousa LDD, de Moura LCS, Santos LEA, Nasi LA, Cabral MADS, Floriani MA, Souza MD, Carneiro M, de Godoy MF, Cardoso MMDA, Nogueira MCA, Lima MOSDS, de Figueiredo MP, Guimarães-Júnior MH, Sampaio NDCS, de Oliveira NR, Andrade PGS, Assaf PL, Martelli PJDL, Martins RC, Valacio RA, Pozza R, Menezes RM, Mourato RLS, de Abreu RM, Silva RDF, Francisco SC, Guimarães SMM, Araújo SF, Oliveira TF, Kurtz T, Fereguetti TO, de Oliveira TC, Ribeiro YCNMB, Ramires YC, Polanczyk CA, Marcolino MS. Hospital characteristics associated with COVID-19 mortality: data from the multicenter cohort Brazilian Registry. Intern Emerg Med 2022; 17:2299-2313. [PMID: 36153772 PMCID: PMC9510333 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-022-03092-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2022] [Accepted: 08/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented pressure over health care systems worldwide. Hospital-level data that may influence the prognosis in COVID-19 patients still needs to be better investigated. Therefore, this study analyzed regional socioeconomic, hospital, and intensive care units (ICU) characteristics associated with in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to Brazilian institutions. This multicenter retrospective cohort study is part of the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. We enrolled patients ≥ 18 years old with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals from March to September 2020. Patients' data were obtained through hospital records. Hospitals' data were collected through forms filled in loco and through open national databases. Generalized linear mixed models with logit link function were used for pooling mortality and to assess the association between hospital characteristics and mortality estimates. We built two models, one tested general hospital characteristics while the other tested ICU characteristics. All analyses were adjusted for the proportion of high-risk patients at admission. Thirty-one hospitals were included. The mean number of beds was 320.4 ± 186.6. These hospitals had eligible 6556 COVID-19 admissions during the study period. Estimated in-hospital mortality ranged from 9.0 to 48.0%. The first model included all 31 hospitals and showed that a private source of funding (β = - 0.37; 95% CI - 0.71 to - 0.04; p = 0.029) and location in areas with a high gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (β = - 0.40; 95% CI - 0.72 to - 0.08; p = 0.014) were independently associated with a lower mortality. The second model included 23 hospitals and showed that hospitals with an ICU work shift composed of more than 50% of intensivists (β = - 0.59; 95% CI - 0.98 to - 0.20; p = 0.003) had lower mortality while hospitals with a higher proportion of less experienced medical professionals had higher mortality (β = 0.40; 95% CI 0.11-0.68; p = 0.006). The impact of those association increased according to the proportion of high-risk patients at admission. In-hospital mortality varied significantly among Brazilian hospitals. Private-funded hospitals and those located in municipalities with a high GDP had a lower mortality. When analyzing ICU-specific characteristics, hospitals with more experienced ICU teams had a reduced mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maira Viana Rego Souza-Silva
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Patricia Klarmann Ziegelmann
- grid.8532.c0000 0001 2200 7498Departament of Statistics, Universidade Federal Do Rio Grande Do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Vandack Nobre
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Virginia Mara Reis Gomes
- grid.411452.70000 0000 9898 6728Centro Universitário de Belo Horizonte (UniBH), Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Andressa Barreto Glaeser
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Bárbara Lopes Farace
- grid.490178.3Hospital Risoleta Tolentino Neves, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | - Claudete Rempel
- grid.441846.b0000 0000 9020 9633Universidade Do Vale Do Taquari, Lajeado, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | | | | | - Daniela Ponce
- grid.410543.70000 0001 2188 478XMedical School, Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”, Botucatu, São Paulo Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Fernando Anschau
- grid.414914.dHospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | | | | | - Filipe Carrilho de Aguiar
- grid.411227.30000 0001 0670 7996University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco Brazil
| | | | - Gabriela Petry Crestani
- grid.414871.f0000 0004 0491 7596Hospital Mãe de Deus, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | | | | | - Helena Carolina Noal
- grid.488599.10000 0004 0481 6891Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Helena Duani
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Heloisa Reniers Vianna
- grid.419130.e0000 0004 0413 0953Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, University Hospital, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | | | | | - José Miguel Chatkin
- grid.411379.90000 0001 2198 7041Hospital São Lucas da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUC-RS), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Júlia Drumond Parreiras de Morais
- grid.419130.e0000 0004 0413 0953Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, University Hospital, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | | | - Juliana Machado Rugolo
- grid.410543.70000 0001 2188 478XHospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, Botucatu, São Paulo Brazil
| | - Karen Brasil Ruschel
- grid.414871.f0000 0004 0491 7596Hospital Mãe de Deus, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | | | | | - Liege Barella Zandoná
- grid.441846.b0000 0000 9020 9633Universidade Do Vale Do Taquari, Lajeado, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Lílian Santos Pinheiro
- grid.411287.90000 0004 0643 9823Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM), Teófilo Otoni, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Liliane Souto Pacheco
- grid.488599.10000 0004 0481 6891Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Luanna da Silva Monteiro Menezes
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | | | | | - Luisa Elem Almeida Santos
- grid.441942.e0000 0004 0490 8155Centro Universitário de Patos de Minas, Patos de Minas, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Luiz Antonio Nasi
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Máderson Alvares de Souza Cabral
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Maiara Anschau Floriani
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Maíra Dias Souza
- Hospital Metropolitano Odilon Behrens, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Marcelo Carneiro
- Hospital Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Mariana Frizzo de Godoy
- grid.411379.90000 0001 2198 7041Hospital São Lucas da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUC-RS), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Neimy Ramos de Oliveira
- grid.452464.50000 0000 9270 1314Hospital Eduardo de Menezes, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | | | - Pedro Ledic Assaf
- Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Roberta Pozza
- Hospital Tacchini, Bento Gonçalves, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Tatiana Kurtz
- Hospital Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | - Carísi Anne Polanczyk
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
- grid.8532.c0000 0001 2200 7498Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul Brazil
| | - Milena Soriano Marcolino
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Medical School and University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
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3
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da Silveira WC, Ramos LEF, Silva RT, de Paiva BBM, Pereira PD, Schwarzbold AV, Garbini AF, Barreira BSM, de Castro BM, Ramos CM, Gomes CD, Cimini CCR, Pereira EC, Roesch EW, Kroger EMS, Aranha FFMG, Anschau F, Botoni FA, Aranha FG, Crestani GP, Vietta GG, Bastos GAN, Costa JHSM, da Fonseca JRCS, Ruschel KB, de Oliveira LS, Pinheiro LS, Pacheco LS, Segala LB, Couto LSF, Kopittke L, Floriani MA, Silva MM, Carneiro M, Ferreira MAP, Martins MAP, de Faria MNZ, Nogueira MCA, Guimarães Júnior MH, Sampaio NDCS, de Oliveira NR, Pertile NDM, Andrade PGS, Assaf PL, Valacio RA, Menezes RM, Francisco SC, Guimarães SMM, Araújo SF, Rezende SM, Pereira SA, Kurtz T, Fereguetti TO, Polanczyk CA, Pires MC, Gonçalves MA, Marcolino MS. Predictors of venous thromboembolism in COVID-19 patients: results of the COVID-19 Brazilian Registry. Intern Emerg Med 2022; 17:1863-1878. [PMID: 35648280 PMCID: PMC9156830 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-022-03002-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2022] [Accepted: 05/06/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Previous studies that assessed risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in COVID-19 patients have shown inconsistent results. Our aim was to investigate VTE predictors by both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) approaches, due to their potential complementarity. This cohort study of a large Brazilian COVID-19 Registry included 4120 COVID-19 adult patients from 16 hospitals. Symptomatic VTE was confirmed by objective imaging. LR analysis, tree-based boosting, and bagging were used to investigate the association of variables upon hospital presentation with VTE. Among 4,120 patients (55.5% men, 39.3% critical patients), VTE was confirmed in 6.7%. In multivariate LR analysis, obesity (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.11-2.02); being an ex-smoker (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.01); surgery ≤ 90 days (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.14-4.23); axillary temperature (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.22-1.63); D-dimer ≥ 4 times above the upper limit of reference value (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.26-3.67), lactate (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19), C-reactive protein levels (CRP, OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18); and neutrophil count (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.005-1.075) were independent predictors of VTE. Atrial fibrillation, peripheral oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen fraction (SF) ratio and prophylactic use of anticoagulants were protective. Temperature at admission, SF ratio, neutrophil count, D-dimer, CRP and lactate levels were also identified as predictors by ML methods. By using ML and LR analyses, we showed that D-dimer, axillary temperature, neutrophil count, CRP and lactate levels are risk factors for VTE in COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Warley Cezar da Silveira
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 110, Santa Efigênia, Belo Horizonte, MG CEP 30130-100 Brazil
| | - Lucas Emanuel Ferreira Ramos
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Rafael Tavares Silva
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Bruno Barbosa Miranda de Paiva
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Polianna Delfino Pereira
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, Prédio 21 | Sala 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold
- grid.488599.10000 0004 0481 6891Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria, Av. Roraima, 1000, prédio 22, Santa Maria, Brazil
| | - Andresa Fontoura Garbini
- grid.414914.dHospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | - Bruno Mateus de Castro
- grid.414449.80000 0001 0125 3761Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | - Caroline Danubia Gomes
- grid.414871.f0000 0004 0491 7596Hospital Mãe de Deus, Rua José de Alencar, 286, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Christiane Corrêa Rodrigues Cimini
- grid.411287.90000 0004 0643 9823Mucuri Medical School – FAMMUC, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri – UFVJM, Rua Cruzeiro, 01, Teófilo Otoni, Brazil
- Hospital Santa Rosalia, Rua do Cruzeiro, 01, Teófilo Otoni, Brazil
| | | | - Eliane Würdig Roesch
- grid.414449.80000 0001 0125 3761Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - Fernando Anschau
- grid.414914.dHospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - Gabriela Petry Crestani
- grid.414871.f0000 0004 0491 7596Hospital Mãe de Deus, Rua José de Alencar, 286, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | - Gisele Alsina Nader Bastos
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 910, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - Karen Brasil Ruschel
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, Prédio 21 | Sala 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil
- grid.414871.f0000 0004 0491 7596Hospital Mãe de Deus, Rua José de Alencar, 286, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - Liliane Souto Pacheco
- grid.488599.10000 0004 0481 6891Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria, Av. Roraima, 1000, prédio 22, Santa Maria, Brazil
| | - Luciana Borges Segala
- grid.488599.10000 0004 0481 6891Hospital Universitário de Santa Maria, Av. Roraima, 1000, prédio 22, Santa Maria, Brazil
| | - Luciana Siuves Ferreira Couto
- grid.411213.40000 0004 0488 4317Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Rua Diogo de Vasconcelos, 122, Ouro Preto, Brazil
| | - Luciane Kopittke
- grid.414914.dHospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição and Hospital Cristo Redentor, Av. Francisco Trein, 326, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Maiara Anschau Floriani
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 910, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Majlla Magalhães Silva
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 910, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Marcelo Carneiro
- Hospital Santa Cruz, Rua Fernando Abott, 174, Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil
| | - Maria Angélica Pires Ferreira
- grid.414449.80000 0001 0125 3761Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2350, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - Matheus Carvalho Alves Nogueira
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Hospitais da Rede Mater Dei, Av. do Contorno, 9000, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | - Neimy Ramos de Oliveira
- grid.452464.50000 0000 9270 1314Hospital Eduardo de Menezes, Rua Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2213, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Nicole de Moraes Pertile
- grid.414856.a0000 0004 0398 2134Hospital Moinhos de Vento, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 910, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | - Pedro Ledic Assaf
- Hospital Metropolitano Doutor Célio de Castro, Rua Dona Luiza, 311, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Suely Meireles Rezende
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Susany Anastácia Pereira
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Tatiana Kurtz
- Hospital Santa Cruz, Rua Fernando Abott, 174, Santa Cruz do Sul, Brazil
| | - Tatiani Oliveira Fereguetti
- grid.452464.50000 0000 9270 1314Hospital Eduardo de Menezes, Rua Dr. Cristiano Rezende, 2213, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Carísi Anne Polanczyk
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, Prédio 21 | Sala 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Magda Carvalho Pires
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Marcos André Gonçalves
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, Prédio 21 | Sala 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Milena Soriano Marcolino
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/ CNPq), Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, Prédio 21 | Sala 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil
- grid.8430.f0000 0001 2181 4888Telehealth Center, University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena, 110, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
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Marcolino MS, Meira KC, Guimarães NS, Motta PP, Chagas VS, Kelles SMB, de Sá LC, Valacio RA, Ziegelmann PK. Systematic review and meta-analysis of ivermectin for treatment of COVID-19: evidence beyond the hype. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:639. [PMID: 35870876 PMCID: PMC9308124 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07589-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The role of ivermectin in the treatment of COVID-19 is still under debate, yet the drug has been widely used in some parts of the world, as shown by impressive market data. The available body of evidence may have changed over the last months, as studies have been retracted and "standards of care" (SOC) used in control groups have changed with rapidly evolving knowledge on COVID-19. This review aims to summarize and critically appraise the evidence of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of ivermectin, assessing clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. METHODS RCTs evaluating the effects of ivermectin in adult patients with COVID-19 were searched through June 22, 2022, in four databases, L.OVE platform, clinical trial registries and pre-prints platforms. Primary endpoints included all-cause mortality and invasive ventilation requirement. Secondary endpoint was the occurrence of adverse events. Risk of bias was evaluated using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2.0 tool. Meta-analysis included only studies which compared ivermectin to placebo or SOC. Random-effects were used to pool the risk ratios (RRs) of individual trials. The quality of evidence was evaluated using GRADE. The protocol was register in PROSPERO (CRD42021257471). RESULTS Twenty-five RCTs fulfilled inclusion criteria (n = 6310). Of those, 14 compared ivermectin with placebo, in night ivermectin associated with SOC was compared to SOC and two studies compared ivermectin to an active comparator. Most RCTs had some concerns or high risk of bias, mostly due to lack of concealment of the randomization sequence and allocation, lack of blinding and high number of missing cases. Ivermectin did not show an effect in reducing mortality (RR = 0.76; 95%CI: 0.52-1.11) or mechanical ventilation (RR = 0.74; 95%CI: 0.48-1.16). This effect was consistent when comparing ivermectin vs. placebo, and ivermectin associated with SOC vs. SOC, as well as in sensitivity analysis. Additionally, there was very low quality of evidence regarding adverse effects (RR = 1.07; 95%CI: 0.84-1.35). CONCLUSIONS The evidence suggests that ivermectin does not reduce mortality risk and the risk of mechanical ventilation requirement. Although we did not observe an increase in the risk of adverse effects, the evidence is very uncertain regarding this endpoint.
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Affiliation(s)
- Milena Soriano Marcolino
- Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School and Telehealth Center, University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, 30130-100 Brazil
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/CNPq), Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, Prédio 21|Sala 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Karina Cardoso Meira
- Health School, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Av. Sen. Salgado Filho, s/n-Lagoa Nova, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | - Nathalia Sernizon Guimarães
- Instituto de Saúde Coletiva da Universidade Federal da Bahia, R. Basílio da Gama, s/n-Canela, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Paula Perdigão Motta
- Faculdade de Farmácia da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, R. Prof. Moacir Gomes de Freitas S/N-Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Brazil
| | - Victor Schulthais Chagas
- Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School and Telehealth Center, University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, 30130-100 Brazil
- Department of Medicine and Nursing, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Av. Peter Henry Rolfs, University Campus, Viçosa, Brazil
| | - Silvana Márcia Bruschi Kelles
- Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais, R. do Rosário, 1.081 Bairro Angola, Betim, Brazil
- Unimed-BH, Belo Horizonte, MG Brazil
| | - Laura Caetano de Sá
- Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School and Telehealth Center, University Hospital, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Avenida Professor Alfredo Balena 190, sala 246, Belo Horizonte, 30130-100 Brazil
- Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais-FCMMG, Alameda Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, 275 Brazil
| | | | - Patrícia Klarmann Ziegelmann
- Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS/CNPq), Rua Ramiro Barcelos, 2359, Prédio 21|Sala 507, Porto Alegre, Brazil
- Epidemiology e Statistics Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Rua Ramiro Barcelos, Porto Alegre, RS 2400 Brazil
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Costa GLDB, Lamego RM, Colosimo EA, Valacio RA, Moreira MDCV. Identifying Potential Predictors of High-Quality Oral Anticoagulation Assessed by Time in Therapeutic International Normalized Ratio Range: A Prospective, Long-Term, Single-Center, Observational Study. Clin Ther 2012; 34:1511-20. [DOI: 10.1016/j.clinthera.2012.06.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/30/2012] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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